John Suburbs

14 hours ago, The Vanguard said:

That is a relatively plausible theory, “plausible” meaning “possible in another story or another fictional universe”. While it is an intriguing and realistic speculation, it doesn’t serve the poetic beauty of ASOIAF. “Two evil power-hungry men who are plotting to make themselves richer” doesn’t sound very ASOIAF-y to me.

The characters in the book are not motivated by "poetic beauty" or being "ASIOAF-y." They are operating in their own self-interests. Pentos' chief rival is Braavos, not Westeros, and the way to destroy Braavos is to destroy the Iron Bank. Now, whether this scheme will actually work is another matter . . .

On 3/17/2024 at 6:47 PM, Sandy Clegg said:

I was reading some old GRRM interviews and came across this gem:

From the fourth book you have been uncovering some chapters with nicknames, like ‘The Prophet’ or ‘The Kraken’s Daughter’. Why do you do that?

Well… [Thinks for a long time with an enigmatic smile] I don’t know if you know Gene Wolfe, one of the best science fiction and fantasy writers, in my opinion. Well, his work is full of puzzles and enigmas and you have to put a lot of attention on what he is saying. I remember one day I asked him: “Why do you use that? Is there a deeper reason beyond?” And he didn’t say anything at the beginning. He just smiled me ironically and said to me: “What do you think it means?” And I told him my theories. Then, he answered: “Interesting…” [Laughs]. That’s all you're gonna get out of me, but I have to say this is not an accident [Laughs].

http://www.adriasnews.com/2012/10/george-r-r-martin-interview.html?spref=tw

Two things:

a) It's good to know that deep down GRRM is just one of us, and has had his own obsessions with puzzles in other fantasy works.  

b) any thoughts on what deeper reasons may lie beyond  the titles such as 'The Prophet', etc?

I know when I got to the Red Wedding chapters I flipped forward to see if there were any more Cat or Arya chapters, so that might be one reason.

But I also read a theory some time back that all the PoVs are actually Bran seeing the story unfold through other people's minds. So the unnamed chapters are people he might not know, like The Soiled Night or The Spurned Suitor. Or he may be just playing along with someone's new identity, like Alayne or Cat of the Canals.

I can't say I buy into it, but it's an intriguing idea.

Edit: Sorry, I didn't realize I'd already commented on this thread. Disregard.

On 4/3/2024 at 7:26 AM, House Cambodia said:

I've had a thought that's so outrageous I must have forgotten something obvious, but let me spit it out so you can shoot me down.

There have been heretics who've voiced the idea that The Others aren't quite the pantomime baddies POV characters in ASOIAF present them as, but I want to go further. They're doing nothing wrong; they're not a threat to the Seven Kingdoms, and they're the ones being wronged.

Let's start with The Wall. Built by ice magic. Only one kind of being practices ice magic - yup, The Others. Seems to me, they built the Wall - to keep humans out.

All's been well for the last 8,000 (?) years.

Now, has this been explained? - if the Wall was built to keep The Others and humans separate, why were the wildlings allowed to stay north of it? Did that respect the pact, or did humans undermine it from the start?

Were giants and Children part of the deal, allowed to remain north of the Wall?

Whilst giants appear to have been living alongside wildlings (not unmolested, as the name Tormund Giantsbane indicates), what about the Children? Did humans in the form of wildlings drive them to near extinction, or are there vast populations of them underground?

Anyway, it seems wildlings were free to prosper and populate the lands north of the Wall for 8000 years, but for some reason Mance Rayder deemed there was a sudden existential threat to the wildlings - and giants, and so organised them all to get south of the Wall. What that suggests is that, if he was right - and he may not have been, The Others had begun to 'cleanse' their lands of humans (and giants?).

In the meantime, the Nights Watch has been persistently breaking the long-standing agreement by sending Watchmen ranging beyond the Wall to hunt wildlings. The story opens with one Watchman, Waymar Royce confronting and challenging an Other to a fight to the death. We assume The Other instigated the confrontation because we learn about it from the point of view of humans, but should we trust the testimony?

BUT, and here's the rub, I know of no clear, independent evidence that The Others were or are trying to cross the Wall themselves. If they were to be simply left alone to exist in their own lands free of humans (other than Craster - they like Craster; oh dear, killed by the damned Watch), maybe they'd mind their own business.

I don't know if it's entirely clear that Mance sought to unite the wildlings because he saw an existential threat from the north. It seems he sought to unite them to overpower the Night's Watch and carve out new lands in the 7K. The Others might not have shown up until after Mance defected, and that's what finally prompted the wildlings to unite. And might Mance have been the unwitting catalyst of that, maybe by despoiling the graves in the Frostfangs?

In any event, the Others do not seem overly interested in the Wall or anything to the south. And so far we have seen them kill a grand total of two crows. There isn't even much hard evidence that they are the ones raising and controlling the wights.

Couple this with the fact that Martin has provided a readily available means to dispatch of the Others easily, and he has said on numerous occasions that he's not doing the whole evil dark lord thing and his evil minions, nor the final armageddon battle between the forces of good and evil, and it seems that the resolution to the Others' arc will be a lot less than what most readers are expecting.

On 4/1/2024 at 11:42 AM, CamiloRP said:

I'm a dumbass, I read your original comment wrong, I thought you where buying LF's story, hahahha.

I do believe the poison was in the pie and Tyrion was the target, however, I don't think that would ever be revealed, and the other explanation is wonky, sure, but not as wonky as all the "shiera seastar is gonna save the world" theories out there.

Once in this forum I argued for days with a dude who claimed Jaqen H'gar was Aegon...

I think it will come out. Lady Olenna is still alive, and we have yet to see a candid conversation between any of the Tyrells. Petyr is also alive, and he might have some reason to spill the truth to someone, maybe even Sansa. And Bran will likely be able to see all and know all some day.

My favorite poison wine excuses are that Mel poisoned Joffrey through her flames on Dragonstone, Butterbumps used is juggling skills to lob the crystal into the chalice, and that Petyre trained one of the doves to swoop in and snatch the crystal off Sansa's head and drop it it.

7 hours ago, CamiloRP said:

Really? why? Like, I understand not buying it, but it being your most hated theory? it makes much more sense than most theories, even if you don't agree with it.

No it doesn't. The wine is utterly refuted in the text. Literally every actual fact about the poisoning, from the very beginning of the plot to the event and everything afterward, shows without a doubt that it was the pie, and yet most readers still twist themselves into knots trying to put it in the wine -- not because that it was makes the most sense but because that's how they want it to be.

On 3/22/2024 at 9:02 PM, Bendric Dayne said:

If characters like Cersei and Catelyn already suspected Ashara to be Jon's mother, then why does Ned tell Robert that Jon's mother is Wylla and not Ashara if people around him already believe that to be the case? Ashara is dead so it's not like she has to go along with some lie and she did get pregnant out of wedlock so it wouldn't taint her honor any more than what it already is. Seems like the perfect person to claim as Jon's mother. Also, with Wylla being at Starfall and with Ned Dayne believing her to be the mother, it's possible that the surviving Daynes were part of the Wylla lie, so why not just say it was Ashara instead? Presumably, Ned didn't get her pregnant, but someone else did. If anything, saying it was a Stark that got her pregnant probably looks better because the Starks are a great house. So it wouldn't really do the Daynes any harm to claim that Ashara is Jon's mother and that Ned was the one that got her pregnant. I just don't really understand why Ned would go with the Wylla lie when so many other people already believe Jon's mother to be Ashara without any effort from his part on making them believe that. He should just say the mother is Ashara that way people stop wondering who it is. Isn't it more risky for Ned to keep the question open for people to keep wondering and looking for answers until maybe they stumble upon the truth? Doesn't that put Jon's life at risk? Saying Ashara is Jon's mother is the surest and safest way of putting any other rumors to bed and keeping Jon safe.

Could be a couple of things. One, Ned may have started the Wylla tale before anyone connected him to Ashara, or maybe before she even died. In hindsight, it ties in with their dance at Harrenhal, and people just filled in the imaginary details on their own.

And second, whether it was intentional or by accident, the Ashara story provides an important psychological slight-of-hand to cover up the real story. If people think they have already caught Ned in a lie over his version or events, they aren't likely to think any deeper about it. It's a two-layered deception that satisfies the emotional need for people to suspect some hidden truth, while at the same time letting them snicker over someone who pretends to be so highly moral and honorable but in reality is just like everyone else. If Ned had just gone with the Ashara lie, some people might suspect that was a lie, and that might lead them to the real truth.

I'm sorry, but Timmet is no way, no how ever going to become Lord of the Vale. I see this idea all the time, and even if he does have a blood tie to some Arryn or another, the Vale lords will never bend the knee to a half-crazed wild man. And since there is no possibility that he could claim the title by right of conquest, it's simply a non-starter. The entire noble hierarchy of the Vale would have to collapse for that to happen.

My two cents:

Even if Illyrio is a Blackfyre, or not, his real target is the Iron Bank, not the Iron Throne. So the goal is actually to devolve Westeros back into seven independent kingdoms, destabilizing the bank's finances so he can orchestrate a panic that sends it into insolvency. Then Pentos emerges as the top merchant city on the Narrow Sea, with him making an even fatter pile dominating trade, including slaves -- with his partner, Littlefinger, controlling all the key ports on the Westerosi side.

17 hours ago, Sandy Clegg said:

I was reading some old GRRM interviews and came across this gem:

From the fourth book you have been uncovering some chapters with nicknames, like ‘The Prophet’ or ‘The Kraken’s Daughter’. Why do you do that?

Well… [Thinks for a long time with an enigmatic smile] I don’t know if you know Gene Wolfe, one of the best science fiction and fantasy writers, in my opinion. Well, his work is full of puzzles and enigmas and you have to put a lot of attention on what he is saying. I remember one day I asked him: “Why do you use that? Is there a deeper reason beyond?” And he didn’t say anything at the beginning. He just smiled me ironically and said to me: “What do you think it means?” And I told him my theories. Then, he answered: “Interesting…” [Laughs]. That’s all you're gonna get out of me, but I have to say this is not an accident [Laughs].

http://www.adriasnews.com/2012/10/george-r-r-martin-interview.html?spref=tw

Two things:

a) It's good to know that deep down GRRM is just one of us, and has had his own obsessions with puzzles in other fantasy works.  

b) any thoughts on what deeper reasons may lie beyond  the titles such as 'The Prophet', etc?

I've seen some people argue that all of the PoVs are the result of future Bran looking at the past through that person's mind with his uber-greenseer powers. So at the beginning, the chapters are named because he knows the person he is channeling, including himself. Toward the end, he doesn't necessarily know who they are, so you get The Windblown and the Soiled Knight, etc.

I can't say I totally buy into it, since he ought to know who Alayne and Cat of the Canals are, but it's an intriguing idea.

23 hours ago, Nevets said:

Jaqen couldn't split at any time; he was manacled in a wagon.  If he could free himself, he would have done so when the barn caught fire.  He has no reason to expect anyone to come by, or be willing or able to help if they do.  Ergo, he's stuck.

I doubt that he knew who Arya was, or was interested in her if he did know.  He probably learned at Harrenhal that the Lannisters were searching for Arya Stark, daughter of Ned.  Once he knows that, the pieces fall into place.

I doubt he thought she would make a good acolyte.  She's so unsuitable I have to wonder why they are keeping her around.  I think it's because as a scion of a great house, she is in a good position to help them with info, shelter, money, cover-ups, etc.  Essentially they're manipulating her into helping them, probably in exchange for being able to leave without consequence.

 

Oh I don't know about that. He's a pretty sharp guy. I can't believe lock technology in this society was all that complicated.

And I think he was testing Arya's mettle and character the whole time, including the fire. It was her actions, after all, that led to his story about returning three lives to the red god (which is utter nonsense, btw), which brought her to the HoBaW.

But he's a mysterious character, so who knows?

On 3/10/2024 at 6:56 AM, HotPieLover said:

A have a little theory as to why jaqen (a skilled assassin and escape artist) was on his way to the wall after spending some time in the black cells of kings landing.

Could it be that Jaqen was in KL thanks to Varys? I mean we already know that he has a gaoler-disguise so he could maybe have a part in Jaqen beeing there. 

If the theory about Varys beeing a secret blackfyre is true he could have wanted Jaqen to assassinate some target in westeros in order to destabilize the realm before F/Aegons imminent invasion.

But who could this target have been? I believe that Ned could have been the target at first, but after his execution jaqen was assigned to assassinate someone else.

That makes me question as to why jaqen was travelling to the wall to join the nights watch. Did he have a target there? Could Jon have been jaqens target before beeing released into the Riverlands? If the Jon was the target, did Varys or someone else know his secret indentity as Rhaegar’s true heir and son? 

Jaqen is still in Westeros, but has travelled the wrong way if he wanted to join the NW. Does he want to find something in Oldtown as F/Pate to get to Jon in some way?

I know that this is a really crackpot theory, but I have been pondering this for a couple of days and I thought that it might be worth beeing my first post on this forum! Looking forwards to your thoughts and answers!

I don't see why Varys would want Ned killed. He's trying to slow things down in Westeros, per Illyrio's request, and killing Ned would have the opposite effect.

My suspicion is that if he was in the cells to kill Ned, that would be at Littlefinger's direction. Petyr most definitely does not want Ned repeating the tale of their last conversation, the one where he counseled Ned to bend the knee to Joffrey for now and then expose him at a more convenient time later.

Once Jaq was on the way to the Wall, of course, he could split at any time, but he didn't probably because he puzzled out who Arya was right away and immediately sensed that she might make a good acolyte in the House of Black and White. At this point, I don't see why anyone would have the slightest interest in Jon.

21 hours ago, Hippocras said:

I have often seen people react very strongly against any suggestion of a secret identity for main characters beyond Jon. Valid and well argued reasons exist for thinking that Dany, Tyrion, Pod and more might be more (or less) than they believe themselves to be. However in most cases the argument against centres around the belief that we as readers can only handle so many lies, secrets and major reveals.

It is a dilemma that has me wondering if GRRM is actually up to something: Maybe he is stretching the lies and secrets beyond our breaking point as readers deliberately, in order to tie the story together in the end with a finale that centres on truth: what it is; what matters and what does not; how an entire society can be built on such lies and therefore have the most crumbly of foundations imaginable.

In other words, the lies and secrets are the point.

I just look at all the secret identities that we do know about to conclude that there are likely many more that we don't:

Sansa -- Alayne

Arya -- Weasel, Cat, Blind Beth, No One, Mercy . . .

Tyrion -- Hugor Hill

Catelyn -- Lady Stoneheart

Theon -- Reek

Reek -- Ramsay

Mance -- Abel

Mance's baby -- Gilly's baby

Gilly's baby -- Mance's baby

Jaquen -- The Alchemist, No One

And many more who are using aliases even though we don't know their true identities:

Septa Lemore

The Sailor's Wife

The Dusky Woman

The Hooded Man

In times of war, your real name can get you killed, especially if you are highborn. That's just as true now as it was in 282.

On 2/15/2024 at 1:13 PM, KingStoneheart said:

Now please correct me if I’m wrong, but something came to my mind when I was reading Sansa’s chapter where she meets Lysa.

Throughout AGOT, we’re obviously led to believe that Jon was killed because he knew about the Lannister bastards, but is there any actual proof that he knew this - or is that all Ned’s speculation? I.e does Cersei know 100% that he knew this?

If not, then I’m wondering what the possibility is that LF ordered him killed because he was actually investigating LF and Lysa’s relations and the possibility of Sweetrobin being LF’s. As this would be extremely bad for LF

I just think it would be funny if LF (this amazing mastermind) accidentally started the War of the Five Kings because of this assassination because I always have a headcanon belief that he accidentally started Robert’s rebellion by reading and burning Lyanna’s letter to Brandon saying that she’s run off with Rhaegar and not been kidnapped.

Arryn was definitely investigating Robert's bastards with Stannis, and Stannis intended to use them to "prove" Cersei's incest with Jaime. So Arryn knew what Stannis thought, but neither of them knew for certain whether it was true or not, nor can they ever hope to prove it without a confession from either Cersei or Jaime or both.

But Arryn's murder was committed for multiple reasons. Lysa, who did the actual deed, did it to keep her Sweetrobin by her side and to rid herself of her aged, foul-breathed husband so she could be with her one true love: Petyr. Petyr, however, did it, and then had Lysa send the letter to Cat, to sow discord between wolf and lion.

1 hour ago, Melifeather said:

We do not know that for a fact. His first drink happened immediately. We do not know how quickly the crystals dissolve.

Of course we do. He drank long and deep, tipping the chalice up end. So even if for some inexplicable reason the crystal does sink right to the bottom and sits there, it would be the first thing down his throat when he drank. If he took a tiny sip and then put it down you might have a point, but he didn't. Sorry, but this is what I mean about imaginary facts. The very idea that a crystal that does not dissolve near-instantly is ludicrous. Nobody would place any value on it at all if it worked this way, and certainly the preferred method of deployment would not be in crystal form, but as a powder.

Plus we have this added problem: did the poison enter the chalice before Tyrion filled it, or after? How could anyone have possibly done this in the brief moment it took Tyrion to hand it to Joffrey, with literally every eye in the room directly on them. The only way this could be remotely possible is if someone did it while it was under the table -- again, without anyone noticing. But even then, Tyrion pours in the new wine, stirring the whole thing up. And this after it had been sitting in whatever residual wine was left over when Joffrey dumped it on Tyrion. And still you imagine that the crystal is not dissolving and filling the entire contents with poison?

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The deep color was enough to catch Tyrion‘s attention. He considers it and then dumps the dregs out onto the floor. It seems implied that Tyrion was suspicious of the contents.

Yes, the deep color at the end of the scene, after Joffrey had barfed it all into the chalice. Before that it was just purple -- thin sheets of red wine running down his chin will look purple. Again, that is just the plain fact.

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I think my estimate of 10-12 seconds from drinking the wine to choking is plausible and certainly does not rule out the wine. We are told ahead of time that the crystals dissolve in wine. Maybe alcohol is necessary?

No, it is not plausible. They would be on super fast-forward for all of this to happen in 12 seconds. But regardless, there is no denying that Joffrey's sequence from drinking his wine to losing his ability to speak is multiple times longer than Cressen's, despite supposedly taking multiple huge gulps of more heavily poisoned wine. It is undeniable that if the two scenes played out side by side, Cressen would have been on his knees by the time Margy was half-done with her line about Lord Buckler's toast. And this doesn't even get us close to the first tiny kof, let alone the point where Joffrey tried to speak but "his words broke up in a fit of coughing" -- which is the same as "the words caught in his throat." And this happens in virtually the exact time frame after Joffrey finally passes the pie into his throat. Just a coincidence?

And this whole argument is moot because even if, despite the clearcut evidence that neither wine nor alcohol is necessary, we still hold to this theory, just look at the text. The first series of huge chugs showed no reaction at all, but the pie showed an immediate one, and then the actual choking was precipitated with another drink of wine. So there is your wine, right there in Joffrey's throat -- but only when combined with the pie do we see a more pronounced reaction from just the pie alone.

And, of course, throughout this whole time, we see Joffrey with just wine in his throat and he has no problem, then just pie in his mouth and he immediately start's koffing, and states clearly and unambiguously that this is caused by the pie, then he has both wine and pie in his throat, and only then does he start choking, and he even tells us again, point blank: it's the pie, kof, the pie.

Honestly, how much more hard evidence do you need? This is like of Sherlock Holmes walked into the parlor to find the lord of the manner with a knife in his belly, and with his dying breath has says it was the maid, the maid, but still insisting that the murderer had to be the butler.

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I understood the smudge as being a tiny blurred or indistinct shape because the hard crystal shape was gone but the setting was still there. Not anything residual.

Of course the setting is still there. The poison was in the crystal, not the hairnet. There is nothing about it being tiny or blurred or indistinct -- just a dark smudge. Nothing else but the crystallized strangler can do this, and this disproves the fallacy that wine or alcohol is necessary to dissolve it. 

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i still stand by my assertion that Melisandre is not immune to poison, but she is educated about its properties, efficacy, and dosing. Cressen’s poisoning is a precedent for Joffrey’s as to how it would work. Melisandre was able to drink the top 2/3 unaffected so Joffrey’s top 2/3 didn’t affect him either.

Sorry, but this is just another example of making up facts to fit a conclusion. The very rationale of using a slow-dissolving crystal to assassinate high-value targets disproves this. So stand by your assertion, but it's still wrong.

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Littlefinger and Lady Olenna understand how the game is played. He made sure the truth was spread via the servants.

Yes, Littlefinger's men told the truth, but Littlefinger himself lied, directly to their faces, putting Margaery in this mortal danger. And then he never even confessed this lie, they learned it from Sansa. So would you trust the liar who did this to you and yours when he later comes to you and says, "gee I'm sorry, let me make it right because I feel so bad for what I've done . . ."

And then it turns out that his "plan" is to first provide a single giant chalice for both Joffrey and Margaery to share, then somehow drop a crystal into this thing that is four or five times taller than a normal glass, and all glittering and golden to draw attention to itself, like a giant fishing lure, and then somehow wait for the perfect moment where they can not only make this swift move up to the rim directly in front of a thousand witnesses but also somehow arrange it so that both the victim and the patsy create the circumstances that permit both the murder and the frame-up -- all the time knowing that if just one person sees this they are in for a death that only the mind of Joffrey Baratheon can conceive.

Oh, and where is the known liar and double-crosser while Olenna and her family are surrounded by Lannister guards and taking this enormous risk? Why, he's safe and sound on his boat, way out in the bay, waiting to collect his prize -- or split to Braavos at the first sign of trouble. Honestly, how is it possible for anyone to read the Lady Olenna that's on the page and conclude that she is this much of a gullible simp? I guess it's easy when you can just ignore the actual facts and make up your own.

21 hours ago, the trees have eyes said:

There's only so many ways I can say this.  Whether she means it or not she invites Sansa to accompany her.  You are arguing motivation and intent, I am simply pointing out that the meaning of what she says is that Sansa leave with her, a point you seemed determined to refute.

Accompany means what it means whether you believe what she says or not.

Can we end #accompanygate now?

Also, it might help if you addressed the points made by the person you are replying to rather than blurring posters together.  That might spare me all this talk which isn't relevant to what I said.

Your meaning is incorrect. As I showed you, accompany does not necessarily mean "travel with"; it can also mean "be present at." The reason you have to keep saying it in so many different ways is because what you are saying is flat wrong. So sure, we can end accompanygate on those terms.

You're the one who brought up the whole accompany thing after I had already squared it with the other poster.

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You argued that Olenna's motivation was the fear that Tywin would exterminate House Tyrell, a picture you painted in apocalyptic terms.  This isn't borne out by the text.  Sorry.  I'm not interested in arguing with you over your wilder inferences as you have proved you will go on for ever, merely in pointing out that they are not textually accurate.  If you can't accept that, then there's nothing more to say.

This is 100 percent borne out by the text. It is the actual, verifiable and confirmed situation in the realm. I think you are confusing "borne out by the text" with "outright stated." But there are all kinds of truths in asioaf that are not stated, starting with RLJ. If you can't accept that, then there is nothing more to say.

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You said Tywin was unreachable.  I said he was anything but as he was at the same feast as Joffrey.  Like with #accompanygate and "The Rains of Highgarden" you are playing fast and loose with the text.

He is unreachable. He is at the center of the head table, right next to Cersei and the Tyrells and the king and the queen, where all eyes will be focused all night long. It would be very odd for Lady Olenna to be camped out there, in plain view of everyone, rather than way down the side, out of sight from nearly the entire room.

But as I went on to explain, which you continue to ignore, is that the fact remains that killing Tywin does not solve anything right now. The point here is to keep House Lannister from getting the north. Only Tyrion's death and Sansa's extraction can do that.

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I think you'll find there are three examples above which refute your first point.  Which are what I am talking about specifically.  As to your rhetorical questions, what do they have to do with anything I have said?  

Lol, you haven't refuted anything. The Reach is the most powerful house, militarily and economically. It has been this way for thousands of years. They do have the largest army. They do not have any natural barriers to speak of. Tywin's command of practically the rest of the kingdom does pose a grave threat, because the Reach has no other way of defending itself. This is not rhetoric. These are facts, unambiguous, clearly stated facts right from the text. The only thing this discussion proves is that some people are better at drawing conclusions from actual facts than others.

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Said with customary closed-mindedness.  There are plenty of other ideas, stated over the years and in this thread.  If you don't agree with them that's fine but you don't have any particular insight that others lack here, just your own take on things.  Please realise that.

Sure, everyone can pitch their own ideas, but not their own facts. And the vast majority of facts used to support the wine are completely imaginary. So it is not just my take, it is the only conclusion drawn from actual, verifiable facts in the text, not just words. Realize that.

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I quite clearly said it was an additional motivation.  Additional to the ones that others had mentioned.  If you read what people actually posted instead of wondering how to use it as ammunition in an adversarial sense we could avoid a lot of this pointless clutter.

We don't need an "additional motivation" for Petyr's self-preservation. The embezzlement alone is enough. Nobody is going to give a rat's ass if Tyrion, without proof, claims that Petyr lied about the dagger, especially when he was not even present to hear what was actually said. And since multiple people can attest to the fact that Robert won the dagger, not Tyrion, then this whole story is laughable.

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This is a wild inference that you now choose to claim as fact.  How silly.

This is the conclusion drawn from the actual facts. We could avoid this pointless clutter if you could accept the facts as they are, not how you wished they were.

20 hours ago, Melifeather said:

No, I think you've misunderstood what I wrote. Joffrey takes two drinks from the chalice after it was refilled 3/4's full. In between drinks he leaves it sitting on the table in front of Tyrion.

Yes, Tyrion fills the chalice, Joffrey drinks deep, and then leaves it on the table, right in front of Sansa, when the big pie is wheeled in. The whole cutting ceremony takes several minutes -- probably a good five just to wheel it through the hall. So we know for a fact that there was no poison in the wine at that point.

After the cutting, Joffrey is back at Tyrion and demands more wine. The chalice sat on the table, right in front of Sansa, the whole time. Tyrion has to climb into his chair to reach it, so it is at least an arm's length toward the center. Joffrey grabs it "and drank long and deep, his throat working as the wine ran purple down his chin."

A lot of people go "aha, purple wine" at this mention, but that is nonsense. Red wine translucent against Joffrey's pale skin illuminated by orange torchlight reflecting off a golden chalice . . . you bet that looks purple. Numerous characters are described as having purple wine stains on their clothing and in their beards.

Again, if the wine is poisoned to the point it has turned deep purple, and Joff is drinking massive gulps of it, then he would have dropped as soon as Cressen, or sooner if you believe relative concentration has anything to do with timing. But he doesn't. He shows no signs of any distress, not even the slightest peep -- until he eats the pie.

Then, within seconds, he gives out the first tiny kof. Then he eats more pie and kofs again, harder. Why? Because the pie is dry, and he wants wine, which feels perfectly normal, to soothe it. And here's the kicker: when he tries to take another drink, this is the moment when the pie is finally washed into his throat. And what happens? In a matter of seconds, Joffrey tries to speak but cannot -- exactly like Cressen.

So, sorry, but the facts are undeniable. With the wine, we have a wildly different timeline where the poison is acting completely opposite of what it should be doing given the comparative concentrations and dosages, but with the wine it works exactly the same, right down to the second. 

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We are told in the text that the Strangler dissolves in wine. What we do not know is how quickly it dissolves. I doubt very much the crystal was in the pie, because it wouldn't have dissolved and would be a noticeable hard "something" like when you sometimes find a tiny bone fragment in bite of ground beef (so annoying!).

We are told in Cressen's POV that "dissolved in wine" it would tighten the muscles in the throat. Nowhere does he say it can only be dissolved in wine, and we can see for ourselves that it can. Remember when Sansa checks the hairnet in the goodswood. She sees a purple smudge in the empty socket. This can only be the poison because real amethysts don't leave smudges behind. So unless you can come up with a plausible explanation as to how and why someone would splash wine on Sansa's head in the brief walk from the Hand's Tower to the throneroom entrance, then the only explanation is that it started to dissolve just from the oils in her hair and the sweat from her scalp.

Wine is mostly water anyway, and there is plenty of water in hot, moist pie filling. So there is no reason to conclude that it would not dissolve in pie. But even if it did not and Tyrion bit into something hard and then choked, all the better to get people to believe that he choked on a bone, right?

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Joffrey begins coughing probably less than 12 seconds after he took the second drink. Get a stopwatch ready and pretend you're Joffrey. Hit "start" as soon as you put the goblet on the table, read Joff's lines and pretend to eat and talk. I actually tried it and I was under 11 seconds. 

As for Cressen....yes, he got a more concentrated drink than Joffrey. Joffrey had the top part of the drink just like Melisandre, and then he got the bottom just like Cressen. Like I said, the top part of the wine wasn't infused yet with the Strangler, because it takes time to dissolve.

Here is Cressen's drink after dropping the crystal in only seconds before:

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The wine was sour on his tongue. He let the empty cup drop from his fingers to shatter on the floor. "He does have power here, my lord," the woman said, "and fire cleanses." At her throat, the ruby shimmered redly.

Cressen tried to reply, but the words caught in his throat.

So right off the bat, we can see that Mel's sentence alone is about a third shorter than Margaery's. that means it you are going to cram Joffrey's entire sequence into 12 measly seconds, then Cressen's took place in less than three. That's four times shorter, all with a half swallow of wine that, sorry, cannot possible have contained all the poison while Mel got none. That would be absurd. Who would use such a thing that only kills if the victim drains their cup entirely? It would never have gotten the reputation it has, or the price it commands, if it does everything possible to avoid being consumed once it is deployed. So no, arguing that it does not dissolve near-instantly and settles into the bottom of a cup like sludge is merely making up facts to support a conclusion. The right way to do it is to look at all the actual facts objectively, and when he do this we can reach only one possible conclusion: the poison was in the pie.

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Actually, I would think the reverse would be more beneficial to the killer. A little bit of a lapse in efficacy would be to the benefit, because it offers concealment as to the real killer.

Not in this case. Any delay only ups the risk for Margaery. And only because they foolishly gave them a giant chalice to share and decided to use that to deliver the poison. And why would they want any concealment of the "real killer" when they are trying so desperately to pin it on Tyrion? Why wouldn't they want it to go directly from his hands to the king as quickly as possible.

And the key question that no one can answer: why on earth would Lady Olenna trust Littlefinger in any of this when he was the one who deliberately lied to get Margaery into this fix in the first place? And then he never even confessed this lie; they learned it from Sansa.

22 hours ago, the trees have eyes said:

 Look, you can certainly argue that Olenna does not mean what she says but you cannot argue with the meaning of her words.  She says she is leaving the day after tomorrow and suggests Sansa accompany her.  That is crystal clear and unambiguous in meaning.  She provides a cover story for this to allay the suspicions of listening ears, a pretext really, by presenting this as a visit by Sansa while the men are having their war.  Whether she means this or is laying a false trail for listening ears, including Sansa's, is another matter.

I am fairly certain we can agree on what the word accompany means so hopefully we can put this one to bed.

Nothing Lady Olenna says is crystal clear and unambiguous. This is the lady who says she ended her betrothal to Daeron Targaryan, not him; that her husband died because his horse just blithely walked over a cliff; that she thinks Tyrion is going to lead great hosts off to war; that she couldn't say what the stink was at Tyrin's funeral -- and that she is powerless to stop Margaery's wedding because her oaf son has made up in mind but in the next breath says she will not "give him a choice" but to ask leave for Sansa to come to Highgarden. And she isn't even going to bother telling him the real reason for this visit, which is nothing less than to marry his son and heir to a woman of her choice, not his.

So spare me all this talk about what she was planning to do the day after next. She is an even bigger liar and BSer than Littlefinger. Accompany can have two meanings: to travel with someone as a companion or escort, or to be present at the same time.

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Well, no.  ASOIAF works on a number of levels obviously: ice vs fire, Stark vs Lannister, the grand Game of Thrones being the most obvious but this is not a story about Lannisters vs Tyrells.  Mace gets to play Warwick Kingmaker in tWot5K and extracts significant rewards from the Crown: Margaery to be Queen, Mace himself on The Small Council, Loras in The Kingsguard, the huge land and power grab with the attainder of the Florents and Brightwater Keep passing to the Tyrells.  They are reaching "overmighty" status and Tywin reinstates Pycelle to prevent the Citadel naming another Tyrell to the Small Council.

This is a story about all manner of things, depending on who's perspective you're looking through. And from the Tyrell perspective, the single biggest threat to their safety and security is House Lannister. Hard stop. If it is not about Tyrell vs. Lannister, then why did they kill Joffrey? Just for fun? Why was Margaery seeking to undermine Cersei and gain control of Tommen? Why did they support Renly in the first place and not turn immediately to Tywin and Joffrey?

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Tywin is not unreachable either.  He is at the same feast his grandson was poisoned, very probably by a Tyrell, and he is later murdered in The Red Keep with a crossbow.  There's even a theory that Oberyn had managed to poison him thought I don't subscribe to that.

Like I said, it's not just that Tywin is unreachable, it's that his death at this time does not change anything. If he dies, a new lord will emerge at Casterly Rock, but the Lannisters will still control the north and all the other realms he has acquired over the past 15 years. Only Tyrion's death right now can make a meaningful dent in this bloc. Tywin can come later, after his fiefdom has been dismantled.

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I feel like you made an argument here that relies on making wild inferences about character motivations that are not supported by the text rather than reached a conclusion based on actual facts.  Sorry.

Every argument I've made is sourced directly from the text. Is the Reach not the most populous zone? Does it not field the largest army, time and time again? Does it have any natural barriers like the other zones do? Has Tywin not taken over the stormlands, crownlands, riverlands, north and the Iron Throne?

Did Joffrey start choking after he drank the wine, or the pie? Did the chalice remain right in front of Sansa's nose the entire time? Did Joffrey not tell us, crystal clearly and unambiguously, that "it's the pie, kof, noth, pie"?

The facts are all on my side. There is nothing that supports any other explanation.

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Since AGOT, Tyrion has known that LF lied about him owning the catspaw's dagger, a lie that put Tyrion in mortal jeopardy with the catnapping and Lysa's version of justice at The Eyrie.  Since Tyrion survived and questioned him over it LF has every reason to expect that Tyrion will eventually get round to undermining him or offing him as payback so we can infer self-preservation as an additional motive for LF.

Really? You think that the dagger lie is what motivates Petyr to kill Joffrey now, more than a year later, when everyone and anyone who would care about that is dead? How about the fact that Tyrion is now Master of Coin and is on the verge of unravelling Petyr's massive embezzlement of the crown's gold? Do you think the very real possibility of losing his head would be a stronger motivation?

But even this pales in comparison to what Olenna is worried about. With Tywin capable of defeating the Reach army, her family, the entire Reach and her very house are in grave danger. Tywin is no ordinary lord who does battle with his foes, accepts their surrender, and then raises them up again minus some lands and a few titles. He is a ruthless warlord who wages total war to utterly exterminate houses who defy him -- even after he professes to be loyal to them. Look at what he did to the Riverlands: complete destruction; every town, village, holdfast and castle, burned; smallfolk murdered by the tens of thousands and left rotting in the mud; fields destroyed, gold, food and anything else of value plundered. The realm has not seen this kind of devastation since the Dance of the Dragons, and that includes four Blackfyre rebellions. And just look at the number of houses that he has dispossessed of their ancient seats, if not exterminated altogether: Reynes, Tarbecks, Targaryens, Starks, Tullys, Darry . . .  

This is what Lady Olenna fears: the Reach burned to ashes, Highgarden destroyed, her family murdered, even the little babies. Her line extinguished, for all time. This is a far greater motivation to kill Tyrion than Petyr's, who can always split to Braavos and disappear if the worst happens. Lady O will be helpless, unless she takes action now.

These are the facts, my friend. Sorry.

1 minute ago, Springwatch said:

Butterbumps could do it. Sleight-of-hand is his thing.

Otherwise I agree the crystal is very soluble in wine, otherwise Cresen would have screwed up, and he's supposed to be an expert.

Funny, you're the second person who's suggested this. He used his exceptional juggling skills to lob it from the floor below and into the chalice without making a clink or a plop, with no possibility at all of missing. There is also the one where Petyr had a trained bird in the pie who swooped down low and snatched it off of Sansa's head to drop it in.

May favorite, though, is Mel killed him through the flames all the way from Dragonstone. Can't be disproven, so it must be true.

22 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

You're twisting things up a bit too much.  Olenna tells Sansa that she is leaving the day after next and wishes that invites Sansa to accompany her.  In other words, leave with me the day after next.

 

Olenna has no intention of personally poisoning anyone, because she's not going to risk getting caught.  The whole plot would be to get a desperate Sansa to do their dirty work for them.  But Olenna is never going to personally contact Sansa with regards to the hairnet because it's too risky.  Dontos remains the middle man both for Olenna and Petyr,  because he can always be silenced after the fact, and no one is going to believe a drunk Dontos over Olenna.  

Dontos first gives Sansa the hairnet with the instruction to bring it to the wedding.  That it will help free her.  Then when she's married to Tyrion and truly desperate, Dontos approaches her again and  tells her that Olenna is going to put something in her hairnet on the day of the wedding.   She needs to drop what she's given  int into Tyrion's food or drink and she'll be free of her marriage.  

What Olenna perhaps doesn't know is that Dontos is also passing on information for Petyr, for Sansa to find Dontos when everyone at the wedding is distracted and he'll get her out of King's Landing.

When Olenna sees Sansa at the wedding with the hair net, that's Olenna's sign that Sansa is willing to go through with Dontos' instructions.  Then and only then does Sansa get the poison through the hair net.  Olenna also adds some very subtle encouragements of her own as she replaces the stone with the poison.

Once again it's a contingency plan to make sure Sansa is available for marriage after Margaery's marriage to Joffrey takes place.  Olenna would suspect that the Lannisters aren't going to maintain their hold of Sansa after her engagement to Joffrey is broken by marrying her to another Lannister, most probably Tyrion.  Pety is counting on this happening.

Now whatever verbal dance Petyr and Olenna play at Highgarden is anyone's guess.  But it comes away with both agreeing that even if Sansa is married, there are ways that the marriage can be ended.  Once Dontos becomes the go between, whether that be from Olenna to Sansa or Petyr to Sansa or both, Pety is always going to be kept informed about how Olenna is going to free up Sansa, if in fact they didn't spell it out to each other from the beginning.  Which they might have if it only concerned Tyrion's death, but I'm fairly certain woudld not have if it concerned Joffrey's death.

And no, Olenna's reasons for killing Tyrion aren't stronger than Petyr's.  That's complete hogwash.  Olenna's only motivation in killing Tyrion is to free up Sansa for Willas.  Petyr has his own grandiose plans for an unmarried Sansa, but he also has a very personal motivation for killing Tyrion for when Tyrion played him for a fool in ACOK.  And Petyr was also most probably responsible for Tyrion's attempted murder at the Battle of the Blackwater.

This whole thing about Olenna trying to stop Tywin from taking the North, is your complete fan fiction.  There's nothing to suggest this, other than Olenna wants Winterfell for her House.  That's all there is to it.  This is a power grab by House Tyrell, this has nothing to do with some noble scheme to save the realm from the Lannisters.  

Sansa has always been a valuable prize.  Especially after Bran and Rickon are supposedly killed.  Because that left her after Robb.  And since Robb was in active war against the Iron Throne, it's pretty clear that if or when Robb lost Robb wasn't going to be alive to take Winterfell.  That means Sansa has always been the key to Winterfell even before the Red Wedding. 

She's an extremely valuable prize, and that's not even taking into her account her Stark bloodline which I'm sure Olenna would also covet for her House.  Her House still having a bit of an inferiority complex despite their status as the Head of the Reach.

But yes, Sansa's marriage does force Olenna's hand into poisoning Tyrion, but that doesn't mean Olenna is going to personally drop the poison.  It's too risky and Olenna would have no reason to believe that she would have the opportunity to do it without being caught.  

Manipulating Sansa to do it, though is a different story.  Let Sansa take the risk, and have the poisoner be the one person that would be in the best position to poison Tyrion.

Which has always been the weakest part of your theory that Olenna directly poisoned Tyrion.  GRRM gave us no information that Olenna was in a position to drop the poison in Tyrion's pie.  

We know Olenna and Margaerys walked over when Joffrey was humiliating Tyrion with the wine, but we dont' have any reason to believe that she was still there after the pie came out, or that she had ever gotten close enough to have access to Tyrion's food.  In reality, there is only one person that we know for 100% certainty was in a position to either poison Tyrion's pie, or poison Joffrey's goblet before he took his fatal swallow, and that's Sansa.

Ummm, what?  I'm sorry this makes no sense.  Killing Tyrion doesnt' stalemate House Lannister.  There's a ton of Lannisters out there they could have remarried Sansa to.  None of this diminishes Tywin's power in the slightest.  Tywin is the undisputed head of House Lannister, including uncles, cousins, ect.  Whatever Lannister they would have married Sansa to after Tyrion's death would have still delivered Winterfell into the House Lannister's treasure chest.

And I'm still not sure why you think that Sansa couldn't be married to Willas after Tyrion's death.  You've never explained that.

  For all I know Olenna, has a stockpile of poison, but why bring more than one crystal to the wedding?  She's only planning on one person being poisoned, so having more than one poison crystal does is create a chance of being caught with poison that causes symptoms of choking at a wedding where someone chokes to death.  And her reason for passing it to Sansa is simple, as stated numerous times.  Sansa has the motive to poison Tyrion, and Sansa has the opportunity to poison Tyrion, since she's the only one sitting next to Tyrion other than Garlan Tyrell.

And Garlan doesnt' seem like the type that would agree to poison Tyrion.  Olenna doesn't have the opportunity to do it, at least no unobserved.  Remeber she's not much taller than Tyrion, and not terribly mobile.  How you expect her to find a way to Tyrion's side to poison him without anyone observing this is anyone guess.  Plus, why would she take the chance of doing it herself and getting caught.

Like Petyr said, "clean hands".  Always get someone else to do your dirty work for you.  That's what Olenna wants from Sansa.

Sorry, but no. You are the one who's twisting here. She adds, "when the men are off making war", which is most certainly not happening the day after next. This is how you can always spot a liar, when they say one thing and then immediately contradict it. It's just like she plays the poor helpless grandma unable to stop Mace from having his wedding, and then in the next breath she is not going to give him a choice but to ask for Sansa to come to Highgarden -- and she is not even going to tell him the reason for this visit, which is nothing less than to marry his son and heir to a woman of her choice, not his.

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Because the hairnet is a only contingency plan, in case the Lannisters marry her to Tyrion.  If Sansa is never married there is no need for a poisoning and Sansa just gets to have a nice hairnet with rare amethysts from Asshai.  But no poison. 

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In what possible, conceivable scenario could Lady Olenna expect Sansa to be married to Tyrion at this point in time? The hairnet was delivered the day after the battle, when Tyrion is presumed dead by everyone. Before that, he may be acting Hand but he is also a dwarf and is not considered to be a suitable match for Lollys Stokeworth, let alone Sansa Stark, who, by the way, is not even heir to Winterfell by then. It was only when Robb died and Sansa married Tyrion that he became the target. It's the only explanation that makes any sense at all. Lady Olenna is playing the game of thrones, and Tywin getting the north is the single-most devastating move against Highgarden since the Dawn Age.

And sorry, but the whole idea of trusting Sansa to do this is a non-starter, especially, as you say, she didn't decide to actually do this until she saw, or didn't see, Ice. She is far too unstable, and this is a job that requires courage, mental fortitude and most of all, discretion. It's not a game for children.

So I'm taking a hard pass on all of this. We will find that Olenna did the pie because Tyrion was the immediate threat, for the exact reasons I've stated. This is how the game is played.

22 hours ago, Melifeather said:

I've changed my mind about how the Strangler got into Joffrey after reviewing the text. 

When Maester Cressen died, he got the very last bottom of the wine in the chalice. Melisandre drank most of it first even after noticing that Cressen had dropped something into it. She even comments that it's not too late to dump the wine. She then takes the goblet and drank most of it, but left about an inch at the bottom where the crystals would have sat dissolving and invited Cressen to finish it. I think the reason it worked on him so quickly (and not on her) was because it was heavier and more highly concentrated on the bottom. Did Melisandre's internal fire protect her or were the upper layers of wine not yet infused with the Strangler? I'm thinking now that it would have had to have been stirred to ensure that the poison was mixed throughout.

In the passage from Tyrion VIII, Joffrey's chalice was refilled 3/4's full right before he drank it. I think the crystal was in the flagon and the serving girl dumped the contents of the flagon into the chalice and the crystal sank to the bottom. Joffrey's first gulp then - like Melisandre - did nothing. Only after it sat on the table near Sansa and Tyrion did it dissolve fully and then probably was more concentrated on the bottom of the cup. Joffrey took a big gulp right before eating the pie, so big that wine was dribbling down his face. Surely the heavier concentration of the Strangler was then swept into his mouth?

Again, no. If the strangler sinks to the bottom and just sits there dissolving, then it would do the same when Mel tipped the goblet up to drain all but the last inch. My suspicion is that Mel did not suffer any effects because she is already dead. It's the same reason she doesn't eat or sleep.

Likewise, Joffrey tipped the chalice up-end. Tyrion sees his throat working and the rivulets running down his neck. So why does the crystal sink rapidly in one situation, but not another? At the end of the scene, of course, Tyrion sees "deep purple" wine. But realize what has taken place in this time: Joffrey tried to take a second drink but barfed up the contents of his mouth into the chalice just before dropping it. So the dregs held wine, pie and poison (probably the bulk to the dissolved crystal), all of which would turn it an unnatural color.

If the wine had been poisoned before that, then the "deep purple" wine is what Joffrey would have been drinking, which means he was not only getting a more concentrated dose than Cressen's normal-looking wine, but he is consuming vastly greater quantities as well -- multiple huge chugs, one after another after another . . . And even after all this, it still took about 30 seconds to get to the first tiny kof, and then another 15 or so for the actual choking. Cressen was on his knees after a single half-swallow in about eight, maybe ten, seconds.

Plus, when you look into the actual science, relative concentration of a contact poison like the strangler would have no bearing on the timing of the attack, just the intensity. If you swallowed a shot of ammonia, it would burn you instantly, and you might die. If you poured it into a large glass of water, it would still burn instantly, but not as badly. If you placed a tiny drop of ammonia into a large glass of water, it might not burn at all, but then the drop won't reconcentrate itself once inside your body to come back and burn your throat. That's not the way human, or animal, physiology works -- and Martin, the only writer to put zombies on the page who understands what happens in the hands and feet when the heart stops beating, would certainly know this. And we know for a fact that he does because he has Qyburn explain this exact thing to Cersei early in Feast.

And the idea that this highly lethal, extremely rare and very expensive poison would just sit at the bottom of a cup, flagon, or chalice, taking its sweet time to dissolve, is a non-starter. If that's the way it worked, then deploying it in crystal form would be the last thing anyone would do. They would crush it into a powder so the evidence of foul play is removed immediately.

So when we look at all the actual facts, not the imaginary ones, the answer is crystal clear (sorry): Lady Olenna did the pie all by herself -- no friends, no family, no trusted servants. A quick pinch, out of sight from everyone, and it was done. This is why the pie was "a bit dry", because the crystal had drawn in the available moisture as it dissolved, and it's why Joffrey literally tells us, "it's the pie, kof, pie."

22 hours ago, Hippocras said:

The shared chalice is what helps make certain noone suspects the Tyrells IMO. This is why I am sure that Marge must have been given an antidote (even if she didn't know it).

I think Melisandre's ability to drink a whole cup of poisoned wine without being affected was meant in part as a clue that there is indeed an antidote. I don't think Mel is immune to poison. I think she simply has visions and knew what Cressen was planning because she foresaw it. So she came prepared with the antidote and used the scene to increase her power with Stannis and his people.

Olenna knew she would poison the wine. She used the shared chalice as a way to make it seem like Margaery was almost a victim herself, which ensured that noone would remotely suspect the poisoning had anything to do with Margaery.

So you are not only the one ignoring my points, but you are ignoring the basic, elementary facts.

 

 

Just think all of this through and you'll see how ridiculous it is. How is anyone supposed to prevent Margaery from drinking even in the unlikely event Joffrey drinks first. What is she going to do for the next 30 seconds or so until Joffrey drops, only to be standing there holding the chalice with a dead king on the floor?

Melisandre was immune to the wine by some magical power. My suspicion is that she is already dead. But clearly she did not have any normal resistance to a poison the killed Cressen in a matter of seconds. But supposed Margaery did have an antidote, and she drinks, only to have Joffrey die and she lives? Who else but her can be the poisoner now? And in the worst case scenario, she drinks first and then Joffrey dies. Then there is no question who poisoned the king, even if in the utterly unpredictable and unforeseeable event that Tyrion did pour the wine.

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Dropping a tiny crystal in a cup while everyone is distracted by pigeons and shows is hardly the huge risk you make it out to be. The crystal was too small to be seen, and very few people were close.

There are literally a thousand pairs of eyes in the room, 99 percent of which are facing the head table, plus servants, guards and who knows how many little birds in the rafters. It's not a matter of seeing the crystal. The odds of no one see this rapid and sudden movement to the rim of the chalice are infinitesimally small, so this is about as extreme a risk as humanly possible. And whoever gets stuck with this task at the very last minute, because it could not be Olenna, would have to screw up their courage to commit regicide with little to no preparation, knowing that if they are spotted by just one person looking their way they are in for a kind of death that only the mind of Joffrey Baratheon can imagine.

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And you seem to be willfully ignoring my other posts as I have already addressed your other points here. Repeat: the precise circumstances DID NOT MATTER. That was just what happened. If something different had happened at the wedding, the plan could accommodate it.

Wrong. The circumstances matter a great deal. Remember, this is not just a murder, but a murder and a frame-up. This entire intricate dance with the chalice must go off perfectly or else all the risks they are taking are pointless: Joffrey lives and murders Margaery that very night, and Sansa is still married to Tyrion, still in King's Landing, and Tywin still has the north. And all of this is only necessary because for some reason Littlefinger wanted to scotch the Willas plan which wasn't going to happen until after the wedding, after he had already made off with Sansa.

16 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

Which is precisely why it DID require on-the spot adaptation to circumstances. Inevitably. But that was worked in to the plan.

So instead of providing a chalice just for Joffrey and poisoning that, they wait until they have to make up something on the spot where they have to take the incredible chance of being seen -- just one of the thousand pairs of eyes in the room as all it would take to scotch the entire thing and send them down to the black cells.

And no, it was not worked out in the plan. No one could work out exactly what improbable things Joffrey and Tyrion would do to create their own murder and frame-up. And all of this was necessary because Littlefinger was trying to avoid a problem that didn't exist in the first place. Sorry, but no and no and no and no.

1 hour ago, the trees have eyes said:

She says "Perhaps you would like to accompany me".  That quite literally means to go with her.  It's an odd thing to try and turn into meaning something different like traveling there on her own in a few months time.

Like I said, "whilst the men are having their war." Are the men going off to war the day after tomorrow? Not.

She knows perfectly well that Sansa is leaving that night. Otherwise, there is no reason for her to risk her life, and the lives of her entire family, on this.

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What?  This is a fantastical invention that has no basis in the text.  Indeed the Tyrells have the upper hand over the Lannisters and Mace could basically name his price for supporting them.  But if you really believe it then you should believe that Olenna wanted to kill Tywin, the monstrous world-ending danger you claim she fears so much: there are plenty more Lannister cousins to fill Tyrion's shoes after all.

This has every basis in text. This is literally the story itself. Highgarden has been the most powerful house throughout the ages, under both the Gardeners and the Tyrells. They can easily field twice if not three times the army as any other house, and they have the Redwyne navy as well. And the Reach has no geographic features that allow it to protect itself, like the other kingdoms do. Meanwhile, Tywin has extended his hold, through conquest and marriage, past the westerlands to the riverlands, crownlands, stormlands, the Iron Throne itself, and now the north -- well more than half the kingdom. This does give him the ability to outraise the Tyrell forces and neutralize their one and only means of defending themselves. These are the plain basic fact, explicitly spelled out in the text.

Tywin is unreachable at the moment. Tyrion is vulnerable. And killing Tywin does not change the basic calculus because Casterly Rock would still remain in Lannister hands, as would the north, riverlands, stormlands, crownlands the the Iron Throne. There are no other Lannister cousins to fill Tyrion's shoes because they will have lost Sansa. Without her, they don't have the north.

So my conclusion is based on the actual facts, not made up ones. Hubris has nothing to do with it.

23 hours ago, Melifeather said:

This has been my thoughts the last few days. Lady Olenna plucked out a stone, brought it to Margaery, and she dropped it in the chalice.

Not possible. Literally every eye in the room was trained on them as Joffrey and Tyrion were feuding over the chalice both before and after the pie ceremony. In between, it sat right in front of Sansa the whole time while the two of them were down on the floor cutting the pie. Then Joffrey is suddenly back and Tyrion brings the chalice from under the table right to Joffrey's hands. There is absolutely no way Margaery could have done it either time, and then why would she call Joffrey back to share a toast with the wine she has just poisoned?

The simple fact is that the poison could not have been in the wine. If so, Joffrey would have dropped in seconds, just like Cressen. And no, greater dilution or more food in Joffrey's stomach has no bearing on timing with this kind of poison, which works directly on contact.

Only the pie makes sense here. Lady O can do it all by herself, completely out of sight except for the servant holding the plate, and he can be easily distracted. Not to mention the fact that Joffrey tells us, not once but twice, that the pie is what is bothering him -- first at a perfectly lucid moment when he is koffing slightly and turns to the wine to soothe him, and then when he is full-on choking and "it's the pie, kof -- noth . . . pie."

23 hours ago, Hippocras said:

The precise details of a murder are ALWAYS improvised. No murderer can EVER predict exactly what their victims and/or the various witnesses will be doing at every precise moment. The plan had plenty of space to create multiple opportunities.

This is not about leaving it to chance: OTHER CHANCES WOULD HAVE EXISTED, had that particular chance not come to pass.

Not this kind of murder, a regicide, literally right in front of no less than a thousand witnesses. Remember, they have to not only poison the wine, but do it without being seen, by anyone.

And murder conspiracies are certainly not improvised to the extent that they have absolutely no idea how to actually commit the murder. Did the Freys just wing it until the right time? No, the staged the whole thing to coincide with the bedding so they retained control of Edmure and his new heir.

In just consider the fallacy of your logic here. The Tyrells were the ones who gifted the single chalice in the first place. So why wait until the 11th hour, hoping against hope that some golden opportunity presents itself, when they could have given separate chalices to Margaery and Joffrey and then just lined his with poison or stuck the crystal on the bottom with wax?

So no, no other chances existed. None presented themselves in the hours prior to the pie-cutting, and the bedding is coming along at any time now. So now they are going to do it right at the most likely time that Margaery gets poisoned too? Come on.