Mithras

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The raven gave a cackling scream, but the Old Bear smiled through the grey of his beard. "This many men and horses leave a trail even Aemon could follow. On this hill, our fires ought to be visible as far off as the foothills of the Frostfangs. If Ben Stark is alive and free, he will come to us, I have no doubt."

"Yes," said Jon, "but . . . what if . . ."

". . . he's dead?" Mormont asked, not unkindly.

Jon nodded, reluctantly.

"Dead," the raven said. "Dead. Dead."

"He may come to us anyway," the Old Bear said. "As Othor did, and Jafer Flowers. I dread that as much as you, Jon, but we must admit the possibility."

"Dead," his raven cawed, ruffling its wings. Its voice grew louder and more shrill. "Dead."

 

I think Benjen was killed by the Others but the children prevented him from turning into a wight because Bran sayeth so.

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The youngest of the black brothers shifted uncomfortably in his seat. "There's not a man on the Wall knows the haunted forest better than Benjen Stark. He'll find his way back."

"Well," said Yoren, "maybe he will and maybe he won't. Good men have gone into those woods before, and never come out."

All Bran could think of was Old Nan's story of the Others and the last hero, hounded through the white woods by dead men and spiders big as hounds. He was afraid for a moment, until he remembered how that story ended. "The children will help him," he blurted, "the children of the forest!"

 

1 hour ago, FantasyCreature said:

Yet another blow to the Starks (kind of). Well, I didn't like Stoneheart, and that's just waiting to happen. Hopefully the Brotherhood won't become lawless outlaws afterwards.

1 hour ago, FantasyCreature said:

I like your reasoning, it might be close to what happens. But I don't understand the point of this prologue then. Is it that either Jeyne or Edmure will die because the rescue attempt fails?

I think both Edmure and Jeyne will be killed during the rescue attempt. I think the BwB will eventually abandon Lady Stoneheart. This failure will be one of the factors leading to it. 

Don't lose your head

Another retcon I wish: Septon Chayle = Hooded Man

10 hours ago, KingStoneheart said:

Can I ask if this is a theory you like but don’t believe in? Because in my opinion, it’s very very likely that this is true

I think GRRM didnot have anything like this in mind when he published ASoS. But it is not hard to make this retcon and it might be useful in the future for Tyrion's arc.

Oberyn poisoned Tywin. I hope Grrm retcons this into the story.

A user from reddit visited the Cushing Library and checked the early drafts of AFfC dating to 2004 June. At this moment in the manuscript, there were still chapters belonging to Jon and the other POV characters that were later removed to ADwD after the split. In one of these early Jon drafts, there is a discarded vision of Mel as posted below with a mysterious woman all in red.

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“The fires show me much and more,” murmured Melisandre. “faces and shapes, the morrow and the day after, the path ahead and the path not taken. I have seen your rangers riding through the storm, Jon Snow, with pale shadows all around them. It is you who leads the riders, with your beast beside you. Behind come twenty men in black… and one woman all in red.”

The rest of the draft chapters reveal that at this moment, Jon was planning to lead a ranging party to deal with the mutineers at Crasters and at the same time, find out what happened to the rest of wildlings that were scattered to the Haunted Forest after Stannis defeated Mance. The question is, obviously, who is this red woman?

This woman cannot be Mel. She saw it in a vision. If it was herself, she would know it as it was made clear in her POV later. It is possible that GRRM might have wanted the readers to think that this red woman might be Mel at first glance, only to reveal that she was someone else he set up earlier. That is similar to how he played the grey girl on a dying horse in the published version.

But if not Mel, who else might this red woman be? I think I know the answer, especially after considering the possibility that she might be someone else he set up earlier.

A Storm of Swords - Jon I

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“One day on a ranging we brought down a fine big elk. We were skinning it when the smell of blood drew a shadow-cat out of its lair. I drove it off, but not before it shredded my cloak to ribbons. Do you see? Here, here, and here?” He chuckled. “It shredded my arm and back as well, and I bled worse than the elk. My brothers feared I might die before they got me back to Maester Mullin at the Shadow Tower, so they carried me to a wildling village where we knew an old wisewoman did some healing. She was dead, as it happened, but her daughter saw to me. Cleaned my wounds, sewed me up, and fed me porridge and potions until I was strong enough to ride again. And she sewed up the rents in my cloak as well, with some scarlet silk from Asshai that her grandmother had pulled from the wreck of a cog washed up on the Frozen Shore. It was the greatest treasure she had, and her gift to me.”

> Grandmother, found the scarlet silk from Asshai, dead

>> her daughter, old wisewoman, dead

>>> her daughter, healed Mance and patched up his cloak with scarlet silk, unknown status

I think the woman all in red in the vision was either the one who healed Mance or an unrevealed daughter of her (i.e. >>>>). I am leaning towards the unrevealed daughter being the one. But I don’t think we will see her in TWoW since GRRM removed this part from the published version. However, I believe GRRM introduced a replacement for this character to play a similar role in ADwD and she is none other than Morna White Mask, who is a warrior witch wearing a weirwood mask.

The daughter of the old wisewoman healed Mance from a fatal wound that would have bled him to death. The last we saw Jon, he was bleeding to death just like Mance after getting shredded by the shadowcat. This connection is not a coincidence IMO. 

I think Jon is mortally wounded and needs supernatural healing before long. After being thrown to an ice cell as foreshadowed, the extreme cold will make Jon’s blood congeal and freeze, preventing fatal blood loss. Jon’s connection to Ghost will allow him to draw strength from his wolf and survive longer than what should normally be possible, just like Bran did while he was in a coma back in AGoT. Before it is too late, his body will be somehow taken to Morna White Mask and she will do the magic, most probably by a blood sacrifice.

In the original scenario from the draft, I think the assassination would take place during the ranging beyond the Wall and the red woman would do the magic there and then.
 

In no particular order

• Night Lamp
• Eldritch Apocalypse
• Ashford Theory
• Yas Queen Sansa
• Dany heroically sacrifices herself fighting the Others
• fAegon takes King's Landing
• A horn that brings down the Wall from the other end of the continent or binds a dragon from the other side of the planet
• Sandor's story is done and he will live in peace at Quiet Isle
• Varys is a good guy

The travel to Casterly Rock from Riverrun started in Jaime VII of AFfC. After the column departed, Jaime spent 6-7 days at Riverrun as directly stated in the text and also “more days passed” in this chapter until he got Cersei’s letter. As a result, the last we saw Jaime in AFfC, Forley Prester and his column were at least 10 days into their journey to Casterly Rock. And it started snowing in Riverlands right at this moment. Then Jaime traveled to Raventree Hall for an unknown amount of time and dealt with Lord Tytos. That night he came to Pennytree, reunited with Brienne and disappeared. Then we have Cersei 1 of ADwD where Kevan visits Cersei in the jail and tells him that Jaime disappeared. Then Cersei 2 happens with the walk of shame. Finally we have the Epilogue where they still have no news from Jaime. Moreover, there is no news about Forley Prester and the hostages in the Epilogue. From the moment Forley Prester started the journey to Casterly Rock to the Epilogue of ADwD, a lot of time has passed, at least a month, maybe close to two months.

This should tell you how late the Prologue/Jaime/Brienne stuff is compared to the rest of the story and why we need to see them resolved as first thing in TWoW.

If nothing unexpected happened and Forley Prester was at Casterly Rock, Kevan could have got a raven from them and mentioned it in the Epilogue. Then I think the column has not arrived to Casterly Rock yet. To explain such a huge delay in a journey from Riverrun to Casterly Rock, we should delve into geography and travel times.

The column is taking the River Road. At the passing between the Westerlands and the Riverlands, the River Road elevates to hills and highlands. Golden Tooth is a strong castle that guards this passage in the hills. Robb was able to bypass the Golden Tooth by a goat track in the hills. He defeated the Lannister army at the Battle of Oxcross thanks to this path.

From Lannisport to Oxcross, it is three days of hard ride. I am guessing that from Riverrun to Golden Tooth, it should take at least 6 days of hard ride. That is because the distance is about twice as long and the road gets steeper once it comes close to Golden Tooth.

For a column of hundreds of people with carts and whatnot, the travel should take 5-10 times longer than a hard ride. Besides, Forley Prester is taking it very safely and he would not jeopardize the travel by forcing unnecessary speed. More importantly, if it started snowing in Riverlands proper, then it should be snowing much heavier up in the highlands where the River Road takes them to Golden Tooth. This snow can easily explain much of the delay. Golden Tooth might have become impassable. Another thing to keep in mind is that Blackfish (who participated in the Battle of Oxcross) remembers Robb’s goat track and still there might be others among the BwB. As a result, they might plan the rescue at Westerlands after by-passing the Golden Tooth through this goat track. Once there, the guards of Forley Prester might be expected to be lower now that he is in his home country with the only road at his back guarded by a strong castle.

Therefore I think the Prologue will take place in Westerlands somewhere close to Oxcross. Snowfall and other possible reasons in the Prologue will explain the huge delay. The rescuers will arrive by the goat track of Grey Wind. This rescue operation will naturally be connected to the immediate Jaime/Brienne chapters which are also late in the schedule. From there, TWoW proper will finally be able to start.

Since GRRM confirmed that Jeyne Westerling will be in the Prologue of TWoW but she won’t be the POV, most of the popular theories revolve around someone in the column being the Prologue POV, such as Forley Prester, or Ilyn Payne (who by the way is not reported to be in the column) or Sybell Spicer (who has always been my favorite). What if we are looking from the wrong way? What if the Prologue POV is someone from the rescuers? This would still allow Jeyne Westerling to be in the Prologue as GRRM promised.

Edmure is already saved from captivity once, during the Battle of the Camps. If Blackfish saves him again, it would look silly. More importantly, GRRM put heavy emphasis on how Jaime is now a changed man who learned from his past mistakes like the Battle of the Camps. He doubled the escort at least twice and he gave strict orders that the prisoners are to be killed at the first sign of a rescue operation. I believe that none of the prisoners will be saved alive by the rescuers.

For a POV inside the column, the Prologue will read like a travelogue for most of the time. Then the rescue will start and the prisoners will be killed. The rest is a bloody deathmatch. I don’t think such an arrangement has enough meat to pass a story for the Prologue regardless of the POV character. However, for a person from the rescuers, there is a lot of potential to qualify as a Prologue POV.

It is important to realize that the Prologue cannot be considered in isolation. The Prologue has to segue into a certain part of the story. In the case of TWoW Prologue with Jeyne’s confirmed presence, the chapter can only be connected to Westerlands or Riverlands. But the Westerlands option would be starting a new thread while GRRM has already excessive threads on the table. Riverlands is very late in the timeline and using the Prologue to propel the Riverlands story forward would be the best option. As a result, using someone from the Brotherhood or even Blackfish as the Prologue POV would greatly benefit the story and it can naturally follow from there to Jaime/Brienne chapters.

Another important thing with this Prologue tease is that GRRM also talked about how he mislikes being predictable. If people start thinking that he has a pattern with the Prologue and Epilogue characters (like killing them for example) he would like to break that pattern. My favorite TWoW Prologue POV is now Blackfish, with the note that he survives the chapter.

There is the possibility of a conflict between Blackfish and Lady Stoneheart. There are two missions but which one will have priority? At one hand, there is the rescue of Edmure and Jeyne. “Family, Duty, Honor” as in Tully words dictate that they should prioritize saving Edmure. At the other hand, there is the Red Wedding 2.0 at Riverrun. This option is neither family, nor duty nor honor. It is only revenge. Lady Stoneheart is likely to prioritize the bloody surprise at Riverrun over saving Edmure (based on the foreshadowing that “no man” will take Riverrun from Emmon Frey). This will cause division among the brotherhood, as some are already discontent with Lady Stoneheart’s leadership.

Blackfish knows the goat track of Grey Wind through which he can enter Westerlands and set the trap there. Because of the division among the brotherhood, he will not have as much men as he wanted and this will be one of the primary reasons for the failure. When he returns with the survivors, there will surely be an even more heated discussion among the brotherhood.

19 hours ago, SeanF said:

It’s hard to think that Abner Marsh was not speaking for the author.

Abner Marsh lived at a time where most of the civilized world had already abolished slavery. Essos with all its shallow, anachronistic worldbuilding and moustache twirling villains do not equal to the US in 1850s. If GRRM wants to make a direct connection between the two instances, than I would say his history minor is terribly minor.

Maekar

https://grrm.livejournal.com/107286.html?thread=7324438#t7324438

GRRM said he finished and removed Mercy to TWoW in 2009.

https://grrm.livejournal.com/362384.html

But after releasing the Mercy sample chapter, he said that the decision to remove Mercy was made "shortly before ADWD was published".

https://grrm.livejournal.com/156885.html

GRRM mentioned working on the Epilogue of ADwD in 2010, a year after he originally said he removed Mercy to TWoW. But it is possible that this might not be the final version of the Epilogue he worked on. If AFfC is a measure, he might have written several versions from the POV of several different characters. He might have even considered totally different event as an Epilogue.

As for Kevan, he seemed to have wildly different ideas.

https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/18519cz/spoilers_extended_grrms_20032004_outline_for_affc/

In the AFfC outline before the split, GRRM wanted to have Kevan POV at  Casterly Rock "ready for winter".

https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/z0x0qp/spoilers_extended_secrets_of_the_cushing_library/

There was also a mystery of missing Kevan which was removed from AFfC chapters before publication.

2 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Not necessarily. It's mentioned in the ADWD epilogue that the trials are supposed to take place a few days after it, so they can easily be featured in Winds.

But the Mercy chapter takes place after the trials. GRRM wouldn't leave all that stuff offscreen. That means he would also have to write a new Epilogue as well.

Think of it like this. If GRRM included the Mercy chapter in ADwD, then he would have to write and include the next Cersei chapter(s) featuring the trials.

Just now, The hairy bear said:

George revealed that he was writing about Harry the Heir less than a year after the publication of ASOS, way before he decided to scrap the five year gap. This confirms that Harry is not a late addition to the plot, and that the idea of his marriage with Sansa had been there since the beginning.

Morover, I find it very telling that George mentions Harry the Heir altogether with the King of Mummers. They will first appear in Arya I and Sansa I from TWOW respectively. We know that Arya I from TWOW was supposed to be Arya I from pre-gap AFFC, with minimal variations. So I'd say that it's not unlikely that the same is true for Sansa I, and that Myranda Royce & Co had been there from the earliest conceptions.

GRRM announced that he scrapped the 5 year gap at Worldcon in August 2001 but it is very likely that the decision took place months before the announcement. GRRM could not do such a radical change without thinking about it for long and discussing it with friends and his editors. In that very same worldcon, GRRM also announced that he introduced a new book that would take place right after ASoS and he named it as AFfC, pushing ADwD further away. This supports the idea that GRRM had given lots of time and thought to the idea of abandoning the 5 year gap before the announcement because he was able to name a new book that was not supposed to exist before.

In short, although the first mention of Harry the Heir is several months earlier than the announcement of the DEGAP, it makes sense to think that GRRM made the decision long before the announcement. If so, Harry the Heir might be one of the first new characters envisioned after the decision of DEGAP was made.

Brienne reveals the truth to Jaime. They make plans to free the captives and run. While they wait for a proper moment to attempt the rescue, they go over every detail Brienne can remember. They conclude that Brienne never had a real lead on Sansa. Moreover, they piece together that the silent gravedigger at the Quiet Isle is Sandor Clegane and he might know where the real Arya went. The opportunity for saving Pod and Hunt comes when most of the brotherhood goes to join the rescue mission for Edmure as it happens in the Prologue. They find out that Hunt is already executed. Brienne and Jaime manage to free Pod. After that, Brienne and Pod flee to the the Quiet Isle for hiding and also for extracting information about Arya's whereabouts. Jaime returns to King's Landing.

2 hours ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

There’s just one problem: Sansa is still legally married to Tyrion. Just like with Cersei and Rhaenyra (and Elaena), any child she has will technically be his, logistics be damned.

LF wouldn't be concerned about that. If he is able to get a legitimization, he should also be able to get an annulment. What matters most is to have the child in the first place and create a fait accompli. Legality will follow that. 

There is a historical precedent that Lord Hightower wanted to marry his widow stepmother (Lady Sam Tarly) but the High Septon didnot approve it and declared it as a form of incest. But they did not mind him and kept on living and made six children. 13 years later a new High Septon was elected and he reversed the decision of his predecessor. The High Septon allowed the marriage to take place and their 6 children were retroactively declared legitimate.

Ossifer Plumm and his six feet long cock was not introduced just for shits and giggles. It should be somehow related to the current story. Sweetrobin's unresemblance to Jon Arryn also means something. LF will have Harry killed during the tourney. Soon after Harry dies, LF will suggest Sansa to get pregnant and pass the child as Harry's bastard. Of course LF will want to be the sperm donor himself. This bastard will be one legitimization away from inheriting more than half of Westeros in the long run. And the Realm is full of desperate monarchs trying to win support. Legitimization would not be an issue at all, considering that even Ramsay got one. Perhaps LF might even confess that he is the true father of Sweetrobin while trying to convince Sansa to the act.

8 hours ago, sifth said:

You know what I love the most about the outline, is the fact that their are no travel chapters. The pacing is very similar to the first book. Also anyone notice there are no Ironborn chapters?

Arms of the Kraken was a collection of ironborn chapters published in the Dragon magazine issue #305 (March 2003). It included 4 chapters in their draft forms: Aeron I (The Prophet), Asha I (The Kraken’s Daughter), Victarion I (The Iron Captain), and Aeron II (The Priest).

Check the 2003-2004 partial manuscript chapter lists below for the progression of the material.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSQJj1MMr--OsVmCUiIEyWV7jwoBDnFTbA5-1sVbDcZTjUYmKmmuN0ruPApPUEdo98EglqhiKHKRNYJ/pubhtml#

11 hours ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

I doubt it will go according to plan (nothing does in this series), but what do you think is going to happen?

Well, it won't go according to the plans because LF spelled the whole thing out loud to the readers.

I think Myranda Royce is the one Sweetrobin weds. Harry is slain during the tourney. LF tries to rape Sansa during which she kills him. Shadrich and 3 Sunderland brothers kidnap Sansa. They bring her to King's Landing and sell her to Cersei.

12 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Perhaps it’s a scene that was adapted by the show.  Tyrion witnesses Dany and Aegon aka Young Griff perhaps.  The show later alters it to Dany and Jon Snow aka Aegon.

Not likely. Tyrion would end AFfC at Volantis and would not meet Dany up until ADwD. Whatever the incest is, it should be on Shy Maid or during the Sorrows episode. Perhaps Tyrion would crack Septa Lemore's true identity as well and discover that she is related to fAegon and some of the lessons she gave him in her cabin were very intimate in nature.

4 hours ago, sifth said:

The fact that Jon Snow was suppose to go to Hardhome, like he does in the show, is very interesting. I wonder why GRRM got rid of this idea. It would have made Jon's ADWD's story a lot more exciting.

Jon was planning to lead the Hardhome mission himself if not for Ramsay's letter. The assassination seemed premeditated, which is why I think they were planning to take Jon out for a while and the Hardhome mission must have seemed like the perfect opportunity. But they had to act quickly due to the change of plans and the assassination ended up being somewhat botched.

There is an abandoned draft where Mel had a vision of Jon leading 20 rangers to Craster's to deal with the mutineers. Mel was warning Jon against daggers and false friends just the same.

I think the original idea of "killing" Jon was during the raid to Craster's. GRRM dropped that idea and decided to make it during the Hardhome mission. Then he dropped that too and introduced Ramsay's letter.

59 minutes ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

There is one glaring omission: Aegon. But it’s possible George was saving him for ADWD.

Nope. He was present almost exactly the same.