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Mithras

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Posts posted by Mithras

  1. 19 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

    “A face took shape within the hearth. Stannis? she thought, for just a moment … but no, these were not his features. A wooden face, corpse white. Was this the enemy? A thousand red eyes floated in the rising flames. He sees me. Beside him, a boy with a wolf's face threw back his head and howled.

    And she never for a second thinks, ‘hmmm could this be anything Stark-related?’.

    In TWoW, she will  B)

     

  2. On 1/17/2023 at 9:52 PM, Mithras said:

    Not true. That 1993 outline included the first 13 chapters that were almost identical to the published version.

    Now we have a proof for this. Someone went to the Cushing Library and checked the 93 November and 94 November AGoT manuscripts.

    It is most curious that Ned's dreams about Lyanna first appeared in 94 November and back then it was Jon Arryn, not Howland Reed, who found Ned holding Lyanna's dead body at the Tower of Joy.

     

     

  3. In Turkey, Leopards were found to be disappointing during the operation in Syria. AFAIK, this was the most intense real combat action for the Leopards ever and they (at least the ones Turkey has) proved vulnerable to ATGM strikes employed by asymmetrical forces like ISIS. Due to mounting casualties, Turkey switched to heavily upgraded M60s that could withstand ATGMs much better than Leopards. Of course, Ukraine vs. Russia could be a conventional tank vs. tank battle where Leopards might suit better. Or not. If Leopards are sent to Ukraine and perform poorly, that would be a major blow to German arms exports. Perhaps the major reason why they are unwilling to provide Leopards to Ukraine is this.

  4. 10 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

    What do you think will happen in the Vale going forward?

    Sansa I

    Preps for the tourney.

    Sansa II

    Littlefinger informs Sansa about the news from the North such as Ramsay’s victory and the death of Stannis (both of which are known to be wrong by the readers but not by Littlefinger or Sansa) and that Jon broke his vows to fight Ramsay. Harry is slain in a “tourney mishap” during the melee. Littlefinger comes up with a plan to get Sansa pregnant and pass the child as Harry’s. He also tells her that this is his price for taking the Vale armies to the North to help Jon against Ramsay. Sansa realizes that it was Littlefinger who arranged Harry’s death. She says no. Littlefinger tries to rape her and the maid slays the savage giant.

    Sansa III

    With Littlefinger lying dead on the floor, Sansa is in deep trouble. Shadrich breaks in and promises Sansa to take her to Jon for protection. Three Sunderland brothers are with Shadrich. Sansa thinks that she does not have any other direction to go. She agrees. They flee in secrecy and eventually come to the Sisters to find a ship. On the boat, Sansa realizes that she is betrayed. The ship is sailing south instead of north. Sunderlands and Shadrich mean to sell her to Cersei.

    This is how I see the Vale wrapping up for Sansa. After Littlefinger's death and Sansa's disappearance, there will be a power vacuum. The Vale will be nominally supporting the Iron Throne but the Vale Lords will remain divided. By the end of TWoW, Stannis will have consolidated the North and at the same time, Dany will have wrapped up Essos and be ready to ferry her troops to Westeros. Elsewhere, fAegon will have gained large domains from the Lannisters whose control will be limited to King's Landing and Casterly Rock.

    The allegiance of the Vale will be the major contention between Stannis and Dany, over which they will need to fight a naval war. The Vale Lords will make it clear that only the victor will get their allegiance along with their untouched food reserves and manpower. Stannis will be defeated and return back to the North where the Northmen will abandon him (which will finally make Stannis ready for a certain sacrifice) but I believe Davos will be a dragonslayer in this battle. After the victory, Dany will claim the Vale and start ferrying her troops from Pentos to the Vale. This will be the end of TWoW for the Vale.

  5. 2 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

    But seriously, something has to come out of the fact that Tyrion promised the Vale to the mountain clans, no?

    When Tyrion made that promise, Wardens were a big deal in the story. More important stuff than the mountain clans fell victim to the writing process.

  6. 4 hours ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

    One compelling argument I saw is that Sansa was sent to the Vale because of the intended time jump. If she is supposed to be in KL when Aegon arrives, then it wouldn’t have made sense for her to have been in a stasis as Cersei’s captive for all that time.

    The 5 year time jump was created during the writing of ACoK when the series expanded from 4 books to 6. ASoS was written specifically to have a time jump at the end. If GRRM kept the 4 book plan, ASoS would not even exist in the first place, and much of the stuff that turned into current major plot threads in need for resolution simply would not exist. Likewise, many of the newer POVs would not exist. With Sansa at King's Landing, GRRM wouldn't need to create a Cersei or even Jaime POV.

  7. 23 hours ago, Nevets said:

    The Vale is a detour, a place for Sansa to hide out, learn a few things, put her knowledge to use, and move on - most likely to the North.

    I agree that the Vale is a detour but I don't think she returns to the North. If the story wasn't overly expanded, I don't think Sansa would leave King's Landing at all, and LF would get killed before Act 1 was over. I think Sansa is destined back to King's Landing via Shadrich.

  8. 10 hours ago, Black Crow said:

    Its Mel's usual bit about "the path ahead and the path not taken and it comes over as a warning that if he goes, she'll go too. OK its ambiguous anent Mel but there is no-one else in Red at Castle Black to go along with the rangers

    Hmm, I see the confusion. The vision was just a single scene. It didn't say they were going from A to B.

    It is possible that the vision was from an instance where they did the ranging and were on the way back to Castle Black, which means they encountered the red lady during the mission. Or they did not return directly to Castle Black but continue ranging to Hardhome, after learning where the free folk were from the red lady. This was one of Jon's primary objectives. The vision might be from an instance on the way to Hardhome.

  9. 2 hours ago, Black Crow said:

    I'm inclined to disagree.

    There's no alternative candidate so far and I think that Mel is simply warning Jon that if he does go ranging, she will go too

    She doesn't have the authority to command Jon though. If he says no to her (and considering that he is even more distrustful of her in this draft compared to the published version, he will say no to her), then she will stay back. Besides, this was a proper vision and if the red woman in the vision was herself, Mel would know it and tell it. Like the grey girl on a dying horse, GRRM might have planned Mel as the misdirection in this case.

  10. Quote

    “The fires show me much and more,” murmured Melisandre. “faces and shapes, the morrow and the day after, the path ahead and the path not taken. I have seen your rangers riding through the storm, Jon Snow, with pale shadows all around them. It is you who leads the riders, with your beast beside you. Behind come twenty men in black… and one woman all in red.”

    At this moment, Jon was thinking of leading a ranging party to deal with the mutineers at Crasters and at the same time, find out what happened to the rest of wildlings scattered to the Haunted Forest after Stannis defeated Mance.

    This woman is obviously not Mel. But who else might she be? I think I know the answer.

    Quote

     

    A Storm of Swords - Jon I

    “One day on a ranging we brought down a fine big elk. We were skinning it when the smell of blood drew a shadow-cat out of its lair. I drove it off, but not before it shredded my cloak to ribbons. Do you see? Here, here, and here?” He chuckled. “It shredded my arm and back as well, and I bled worse than the elk. My brothers feared I might die before they got me back to Maester Mullin at the Shadow Tower, so they carried me to a wildling village where we knew an old wisewoman did some healing. She was dead, as it happened, but her daughter saw to me. Cleaned my wounds, sewed me up, and fed me porridge and potions until I was strong enough to ride again. And she sewed up the rents in my cloak as well, with some scarlet silk from Asshai that her grandmother had pulled from the wreck of a cog washed up on the Frozen Shore. It was the greatest treasure she had, and her gift to me.”

     

    > Grandmother, found the scarlet silk from Asshai, dead

    >> her daughter, old wisewoman, dead

    >>> her daughter, healed Mance and patched up his cloak with scarlet silk, unknown status

    I think the woman all in red is either the one who healed Mance or an unrevealed daughter of her (i.e. >>>>). I am leaning towards the unrevealed daughter being the one. But I don’t think we will see her in TWoW. I believe GRRM introduced a replacement for her in ADwD and she is none other than Morna White Mask, who is a warrior witch wearing a weirwood mask.

    The daughter of the old wisewoman healed Mance from a fatal wound before he bled to death. The last we saw Jon, he was bleeding to death just like Mance after getting shredded by the shadowcat. This connection is not a coincidence IMO. Morna White Mask will somehow be instrumental in Jon’s healing/resurrection (whichever case you believe).

  11. 11 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

    I don't think they were identical, because by Eddard II, which is the twelfth chapter of AGoT if you don't count the prologue, Arya has already departed for King's Landing with the royal party, whereas in the 1993 outline she was supposed to go north of the Wall with Catelyn. GRRM said that he submitted 13 chapters along with that outline.

    Arya would return to Winterfell after Ned's death and from there they would go north of the Wall with her mother after losing Winterfell.

  12. 26 minutes ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

    True, which is why we can’t prove that she existed in the story at that point. But if she did, I wonder what role she would have had, given that Jaime was the one doing all the villain stuff. Maybe she just would have been Robert’s wife.

    Not true. That 1993 outline included the first 13 chapters that were almost identical to the published version.

  13. 31 minutes ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

    But both Varys and Illyrio get a lot of page time in AGoT, and are even seen conspiring together. What would their purpose in the story be without Aegon? Escpecially Varys, since he already has a powerful position in Westeros, and has had it for a very long time. 

    The Aegon storyline is confusing no matter which way you look at it.

    Varys and Illyrio should have a totally different agenda back when GRRM wrote AGoT but we don't have enough clues to figure out what. As mentioned above, based on the Qarth episode, a fake Aegon seemed to have been in the plans before anything Blackfyre existed. Maybe it was a descendant of Aerion Brightflame. But we don't have anything else on that front.

    I have a fringe theory that while restoring this or that Targaryen pretender was in Illyrio's plans, Varys had a secret agenda even Illyrio was oblivious to. I believe that the original Varys in AGoT was a sorcerer in league with the Others. He was trying to create destability in the Realm while looking for the perfect vessel for the "Night King" to claim when the time was right.

  14. "New" material at last ;)

     

    Quote

    On the other side the wind was colder still, the wolf sensed. That was where his brother had gone, the grey brother who smelled of summer. With the cliff between them, he could not sense his brother, but sometimes when he padded down the long cold burrow under the ice and poked his nose through the hard black bars, he could feel him. The snow was falling where his brother was, covering all the woods in white. And there were hunters near, living men and dead men, and the ones who wore the shapes of men but smelled only of cold.

    From an earlier draft of the Jon chapter dating to 2003-2004 AFfC manuscripts. Full thread at the bottom.

    1. I always disliked the idea of the Wall blocking skinchanging but the above quote contains very solid evidence. Ghost could sense Summer beyond the Wall only when he poked his nose through the bars. In these drafts, Ghost wanted to range beyond the Wall so bad that I think Jon's refusal to seal the gates contrary to Marsh's suggestion was rooted in this feeling. 

    2. The "ones who wore the shapes of men but smelled only of cold" are the Others.

     

     

  15. 8 hours ago, Cas Stark said:

    I don't want to derail or relitigate this stuff, so I'll just say the 'Meereen knot' was kind of like how when I don't want to exercise and I find all kinds of made up reasons why I can't do it or fill in the blank for any task that I procrastinate on, using excuses that don't really withstand much scrutiny.  That's my opinion.  

    "Kicking the can down the road" is what GRRM did with AFfC and ADwD. He simply avoided facing the hard problems related to having the plot advance and converge.

  16. 9 hours ago, Northern Sword said:

    Wyman Manderly is going out with a bang. A bit of the Northern tradition of the old guys go hunting in the winter to not burden the family. But in this case, he is taking enemies with him. Reading it the first time, it felt like he knew he wouldn't make it out. He may survive a bit, but not long. Sweet, sweet revenged. Also, he isn't done yet... 

    This.

    Wyman Manderly died the day he left White Harbor to join the wedding at Winterfell.

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