Trigger Warning

If Stannis left out of self preservation he wouldn't have been crying to Cat about Ned being made Hand instead of him.

Do you reckon Stannis would accept that excuse from one of his retainers had they known that his life had been in jeopardy?

This is absolutely not true he considers anyone that doesn't acknowledge him as king an enemy. “The Iron Throne is mine by rights. All those who deny that are my foes.” Where is the possibility of neutrality in that.

Why wait out the war hoping for "a serious advantage" when you can just claim the crown and gather one of the largest armies the continent has ever known while you enemies are embroiled in a bloody struggle already? Stannis made no claim before Renly was crowned and I don't see why Renly would be waiting for him to make one. Renly has also always been in opposition to the Lannister domination of the court so why wait for an offer from Tywin who would be bargaining from a position of weakness anyway. Renly made the mistake of not knowing Stannis had an assassin made of shadow, he knew how strong his influence was in the Reach as Penrose says some of his greatest friends were the great lords of the Reach and not just the Tyrells, he knew he was in a position to not only be a player but to dominate the field... besides magical assassins. Sure he could wait but there aren't many compelling reasons why he should.

Just knowing what kind of people Cersei and Joffrey are is enough but beyond that Renly represents what is basically the only power left at court not tied to the Lannister faction and he's never be shy about showing this. Conflict is already bubbling up with general anti Lannister sentiment and he knows he'll be a target under Lannister hegemony, beyond his anti-Lannister stance he's a target anyway because he has no children and with his demise Storm's End would likely pass back to Robert's children.

I think you're thinking of this in too rigid terms. She might be the queen but she's still an individual with her own retinue, as long as Tywin's footing the bill I'm sure Robert doesn't give a shit if she wants to have a household guard. Ned brought his household guard to King's Landing too because they're his retinue. Basically every noble staying in the Red Keep would likely have some armed retainers accompanying them as I'm sure Robert did as well the difference is Tywin can casually afford to give his daughter a large one so he does. I'm not sure what your point is about prestige, you can have many sources of prestige and a distinctly Lannister source in the capital benefits Tywin, paying for the Queen to have a load of men at arms in her personal service decked out in his livery is a potent reminder of who she represents and how much wealth he commands.

Robert's accompanied by a retinue of knights and retainers when he heads North, it's likely that they're with him in King's Landing too but not worth mentioning. Tywin likely sent Cersei her guard to add to the prestige of the queen and to serve as an ever present reminder to the court of who she represents, besides it never hurts to ensure your daughter has the protection of men personally loyal to you when paying for them wouldn't even make you bat an eyelid.

"Fool boy, he had no business riding in this company. No money, no squire, no one to help him with that armor. That gorget wasn’t fastened proper. You think Gregor didn’t notice that? You think Ser Gregor’s lance rode up by chance, do you?" The Hound quote you mentioned. The Mountain did it because he could. Hoping someone's armour isn't properly fitted isn't exactly the best way to go about assassinating someone.

He could have blockaded the river and sailed his army around to the North side and prepared safely, crossing his entire army back and forth within range of the defenders not only on the walls but also within the citadel and then dumping them on the shore under the defences to begin assaulting huge walls makes little sense other than in the context of an action scene which is basically what everything in the Blackwater revolves around. Some people say he did it because he had little time with enemies in the field but that's just as stupid. You don't begin a siege of a city with massive walls and a humongous citadel on the assumption that it's going to be a quick affair. Maybe you could say him interpreting Mel's visions of Renly defeating Stannis gave him confidence after Renly's death but I still don't see why that'd push him to make such decisions. The bigger issue this raises is that everyone considers Stannis militarily competent and the fandom in particular considers him to be some sort of military genius yet GRRM makes him do these things for the sake of a big action spectacle so maybe it's less that he's particularly militarily gifted and more that he's just ridiculously tenacious with the tunnel vision on his goals which that may entail.

For me it’s the Battle of the Blackwater. Stannis’ fleet gets immolated but then everyone inside the walls is panicking and throwing down their arms like it’s the fall of Troy because some sallies got turned back and some dudes managed to cross the river on a literal bridge of burning ships. You’re in a city with giant walls and the POVs are in a castle in a city with even bigger walls, chill out they haven’t even taken a section of wall yet. I don’t mind a big dumb battle but the blackwater is just condensing way too much shit into way too small a timeframe for me to take it seriously.

Might as well be in Higharden with this reaching. Lost a tourney to the Hound, took the hit and got back up like it was no biggie. Wanted to make a point to Catelyn, not exactly honourable but I don't really see what is has to do with being generous. Knows that Robert's a slave to his desires and might set Cersei aside for a younger woman from a powerful family that might remind him of his lost love instead of his wife that he hates. Well yeah, you don't get to be the mother of the king and a vicious political player and hide behind being a mother. He's getting slightly drunk as Cat notes, flaunting his power and keeping his men in high spirits while his enemies bleed and King's Landing is on the verge of open revolt. He gave Ned a practical option and Ned declined, what's he supposed to do just die? Ned was Robert's friend not his in any case. He's raised an army in rebellion and Joffrey near dies in the street because he'd cut off the food from Highgarden. The blow was already struck. Well yeah she's pregnant with a child that represents a significant threat to the dynasty. Amean you just gave the guy shit for being patient with his army. These really aren't the gotchas you think they are. He's obviously talking about these virtues in the context of still having to do medieval political stuff not that most of your points even fit them that well anyway.

@Ran Oh I agree, I can't see him taking the Others seriously at first but on the other hand it's such a monumental thing out of left field and we see Renly so little that I really couldn't say how he'd go either way once the ram has touched the wall and they're an obvious threat.

I often wonder if these discussions would be so heated and so regular had the show not made Stannis a frontline terminator and Renly (the guy that casually recovers from being yeeted off his horse by the Hound) afraid of a drop of blood but really that's just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to what they did to his character. You'll notice in most of these discussions not necessarily this one since I haven't read it all that someone will inevitably bring up him telling Ned he should be king as he did in the show. Beyond that what's there to say really that's not been repeated ad nauseam. He's charming, politically astute, takes his pleasures in moderation and is willing to get his hands dirty. He's manufactured a personal power base in the reach by befriending some of its most powerful nobles, he's willing to sacrifice some face so long as Robb submits to him in a practical sense etc etc. He's vain and thinks a lot of himself, listens to his advisers but does not heed all their advice and the big ultimate personal flaw, he doesn't support Stannis! He abandons the brother that had abandoned him and Robert, how very evil. People make mountains out of Renly's molehills. His reign would have been fine since he's good at winning people over and willing to compromise similar to Robert, perhaps his children would have problems with rebellion justified by him being a usurper but no more than Robert's children and grandchildren would have. Even without the twincest every other lord with a grievance against the king could have played the usurper card against Robert's kids just as they can with Renly.

Sure but I still don't get why that would precipitate a 10 year old girl leading an army.

Lyanna Mormont's like ten years old.