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About davos

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    can't stop the signal
  • Birthday 10/29/1975

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  1. You seem to be assuming some kind of rational and considered response from the Trump campaign based off of sound strategy rather than whims of an increasingly unhinged mind throwing money and resources at whatever plan his delusions spew forth today. We're not quite at the "Hitler in the bunker, talking plans to win the war while allied armies are closing in on Berlin from all sides and all he has left fighting are children and old men" point but we're not too far from it. Of course his delusions won in 2016 but Trump seems so much further detached from reality at this point. And it looks like all the professionals who would provide coherence to his campaign have either been let go, moved on, or simply know to keep their mouth shut.
  2. I had just started a new gig the week the lock went into effect here (I started on monday, the shelter in place order was given on tuesday or wednesday after). Since its a healthcare facing position and I'm in the lab, I've not missed a day. We did have a reduction in hours for a few weeks, which hurt some, but far ahead of what a lot of people are dealing with. My wife has been working from home the whole time, which means at least one of us is not out in it regularly. My eldest daughter is living at home. The store she works at was shut down for 5 weeks or so. She's now getting some hours as they are doing curb-side service. My youngest has been the most effected directly so far. She's in her senior year of high school. Her soccer season was canceled. Her forensics competition, in which she had a good chance of making state, was canceled. Her work has been shut down. Prom canceled. Her graduation ceremony postponed indefinitely. And we are concerned about rather her plans to start college in the fall will be disrupted. She's making the best of it, but its been hard on her, and frankly hard on me to watch her loose so much. At the least, we are all healthy as we were 2 months ago as of the time of this writing. Though a pandemic is not good for my anxiety in the least. At least once a day, I have a round of worry that a cough or ache or upset stomach is the first symptom. And I have more reason to be concerned than some as I am overweight with high blood pressure. And my mother is in a nursing home. They had one resident die of Covid-19 and another case in the staff. All residents were restricted to their rooms for a while. They've been testing and have had no further cases. That was scary but it appears we had some fortunate with us there. So, while we certainly have had some significant impact from the pandemic and its effects, so far those have been minimal compared to those experienced by a lot of people. That could obviously change. But one day at a time and hopefully eventually after a lot of days, we will realize we got through this ok.
  3. What it means is that this fucker is terrifying contagious and we are extraordinarily lucky as a species that it is not more lethal. If the Covid-19 virus had case fatality rate of say, its cousin, the SARS virus, which had somewhere up around 9 to 10% fatality rate overall, we would be looking at tens of millions of deaths worldwide and shutdowns that, breakdown of governments and civil order, and the kind of economic devastation that is hard to really grasp. Back in 03 we were fortunate that SARS just was not able to spread in the aggressive manner. We have been fortunate since 2012 that MERS, which has a 35% fatality rate, does spread particularly well at all. And we are nearly as fortunate that this virus isn't more lethal. There is not saying that luck will hold if and when another novel corona virus emerges. There maybe factors that make increased lethality less able to spread, but I would not count on it.
  4. 17 years, though I really didn't start posting regularly until maybe a year after that. So I'm probably from most people's perspective old. But in my mind, the old ones are those who lived through the Zorse wars (which were only legend when I joined) and even more so those who date back before the ezboard incarnation of this site.
  5. I would agree that this is a good place to start a reread. For someone wanting to shorten it even more, I would argue with beginning at Turn Coat rather than Changes. While the latter is structurally the watershed moment for the series, there is nearly as much important revelations and events in the former. We introduced to nemisis and the outsiders (actually I think outsiders had been mentioned before but this is where they become major players in Harry's story), Harry finds out that a number of assumptions he had about his history were not completely correct, and the Council gets a major shake-up. Additionally, if one is preparing for the release of Peace Talks, Turn Coat, is the last we see much of the White Council. Yes, they there is a brief scene early on is Changes where WC makes an appearance to show themselves to collectively be dicks even if individual members are cool and we do see several council members in more recent books (the Gatekeeper and McCoy). But, this is last real look at the state of the council as a group. Rashid told Harry that he would make sure his standing in the WC was made right after his return to life, but mostly Harry has been out of contact with the larger Wizard community for sometime. And I have a feeling that the WC is going to be prominent in Peace Talks and that a lot that happened in Turn Coat is going to be relevant.
  6. While Harry defeated Justin, there is a strong possibility that everything was not as it seemed. There was a lot going on that night. Harry was confused, scared, and angry as hell. We already know he assumed Elaine to be dead and was wrong about that. Given Harry's ability to solve complex mysteries but miss what is right in front of his face, there is likely a lot more about those events that he missed. Specifically the Morgan's journal microfiction linked to earlier suggests the possibility that the whole thing could have been staged to fake Justin's death. Though this was always a possibility, its now suggested outright in canon by Jim. Outside of Harry beating him in a fight, I don't recall any specific information that suggests Harry was definitely stronger than Justin (feel free to correct me on this point. I've been through the books twice but its been a few years). Even if that was the case, though, about 20 years, maybe a bit more, have passed. Justin, if still alive, could have taken steps to boost him powers. Scars on his arms could have been acquired during the fight with Harry or latter. I don't think we have enough evidence to eliminate Justin as a suspect for Cowl, though, there is at least one other equally strong possibility, and probably several outside candidates. Regardless of if he is Cowl or not, I am almost certain that Justin will make a personal appearance in the series at some point.
  7. As mentioned by others, he is a candidate for Cowl. Possibly the best candidate. Though his mentor also might fit what information we have on Cowl. And there are a few outside possibilities. What is certain is that there is a lot more to Justin's "death" that Harry is not aware of.
  8. It was well accepted that Magnus had the edge in the tie breakers. I didn't expect him to just dominate Fabi like that though. I haven't had a chance to look through analysis but Fabi may have had chances to at least tie in the first game. Magnus just proved sharper in an end game when both were in time trouble. Outside of that Magnus just was the better player in that format. He was sharp, he was aggressive, and locked onto any advantage available and just kept turning. From the light of right now, it would seem that Magnus was smart to play it safer most of the match and that Fabi needed to try to find more opportunities to press. Carlsen well understood both his strengths and his opponents weaknesses and played the match accordingly. The next cycle is far away, and perhaps Carlsen will slip in that time. If he retains his form, I'm hoping that someone who is more comfortable in shorter game formats is the challenger so that Magnus can't repeat this approach with the same kind of confidence.
  9. Shocked that Carlsen didn't press that position, especially given the kind of time trouble Fabi was in. He had an attack coming that would have been hard for white to find a way through. He's been the dominate force in chess for nearly a decade. He's won 3 world championship matches. You are the best player in the world with a meaningful advantage in a potentially decisive game, you almost need to play it out. To me, he's been a great champion but he's not the player he was 4 years ago.
  10. Game 12 is actually kind of interesting so far. 22 moves in and only 1 pawn from each side off the board. There is a lot of tension and a lot of complexity. There are going to be some fireworks at some point. Right now I like Carlsen's chances better, especially with Fabi being way down in time for having 18 moves to time control in a really involved position.
  11. Game six was insane, with Carlsen finally taking Fabi on in the Petrov. A crazy opening that was half Knight moves, solid middle game that ended with an piece sac give Carlsen a 3 pawn edge, and a intense end game in which Fabi apparently (according to a super computer) missed a 30 move forced mate that no one can quite understand. Still a draw but by far the best game of the match. Game seven was a solid, interesting, but uneventful draw. Fabi is playing well, Carlsen doesn't seem as sharp as he has been, but I still give the edge to the defending champ.
  12. After coming out swinging in the first game, it appears Carsen is now willing to grind things out. Just like working down a small but meaningful advantage into a winning end game, he knows that if it comes down the tie break, that being stronger in the blitz and rapid formats gives him a meaningful advantage. It will be interesting to see at what point Fabi takes a real swing to try to win a game and prevent that from happening. There are going to be fireworks at some point and it almost has to be from Fabi (unless of course Fabi makes an error that Carlsen jumps on).
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