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About davos

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    can't stop the signal
  • Birthday 10/29/1975

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  1. davos

    U.S. Politics: Gar Nicht Trump's Traumschiff!

    I have difficulty imagining anything that would shake support for Trump much below 40%, no matter how well documented and how vile and illegal. When the news of the Ukraine call came out, I saw a lot of hints from the GOP leadership that they were prepared to throw Trump under the bus if it would mean avoiding disaster in 2020. What never materialized was any meaningful weakening of Trump's support. Its clear that he can do whatever he wants, lie however badly and blatantly that he wants and no portion of that 38% or so that is his base is going to leave the fold. Without some erosion of support, there was no need to abandon him and the GOP has fallen back into lock-step behind Trump. What troubles me is that if Trump looses the election and claims, however transparently false, that it was stolen, 40% of the country could well believe him no matter how lacking in evidence his claims. And I'm not sure the Union would survive that.
  2. Agreed. If he won't or can't take off some weight, he's going to have a hard time surviving in the NBA. It would be a shame to such a singular talent become one of the great could have beens of sports history.
  3. davos

    US politics - When the Barr's so low.

    In the past 24 hours we have had the vile incident of Trump trying to force a grieving family meet with the person who had caused their daughter's death, the release of compelling evidence for significant tax fraud by one of Trump's real estate companies, the leak of a letter better Trump and the prime minister of Turkey that displays so much that is wrong with the president, and Trump apparently going into full-on meltdown in front of congressional leaders. Since the Ukrainian call became public knowledge events have proceeded at an increasing tempo and Trump's behavior has become dramatically more erratic and unhinged. There is no way for this trend to continue for long. Yet there is no reasonable way to legally remove the president that has any chance of succeeding. Impeachment takes too long and there is no way this cabinet is going to attempt a 25th amendment action. We are in the middle of a constitutional of a scale not seen since the civil war. The potential for something catastrophic is very real.
  4. A week ago I would have said that, outside of a catastrophic health event leading to death or severe disability, that Trump would remain in office at least through this term. Its still the most likely outcome but I now see realistic paths to his administration ending early. We still are getting a handle on how big this scandal is. And it could shake loose other problematic activities by the president. On top of that, Trump is not stable and this has rubbed office on the culture of the white house. The administration's response could actually compound the damage significantly. I strongly suspect that the GOP leadership is looking at options, if this crisis continues to on this trajectory rather than stabilizing and becoming manageable, about how they can get rid of Trump in time to get a new candidate in place for 2020. Of course, Trump is not likely to play ball with any such schemes. But, there are scenarios where, despite being president, his ability to control events becomes greatly diminished. Of course, we are not there yet. And we don't know if the GOP would actually risk such a course given that a substantial portion of their base are also committed Trumpists. The next several weeks are going to be telling. If this thing continues to grow, a lot of new things that once were impossible are going to become reasonable options.
  5. Its a top tier poll. So this result is significant and if backed by other polls will increase the pressure for impeachment. The reality is that unlike all the other dirty deeds that Trump has done, we have clear-cut evidence of him committing a crime that can be readily explained to the electorate. The democratic leadership shifted gears rapidly because this is a potentially winning hand. Impeaching without a solid case could have backfired on them no matter how bad Trump is for the country and how many vile things he does. Now they have a something of substance to work with if the public continues to back it.
  6. And Boris is a Labour Sleeper Agent
  7. davos

    NFL 2019: Wake Belichick Up, When September Ends...

    Well, well. The packers start 2-0. Not only that they have taken down the 2 teams that were expected to be better than them in the division. The D has looked impressive though the vikes showed it can be run on. They certainly gave Cousins fits. AR and the offense showed signs of life, though certainly they have a long way to go. Still, to start out the season by a real leg up in the divisional race is a huge. Couldn't really ask for a better start from a new coach.
  8. Of course, he does not recognize that armed police officers attempting to stop the incident from its beginning and were not able to nor the likelihood that multiple people at one or more of the scenes had firearms on them and failed to stop it. Nope. More guns will make us safer. Somehow. With prayer of course. Soon these assholes are going to be telling us that it was the victims' fault for dying because they went out in public without wearing body armor.
  9. davos

    UK Politics: It's Life Pfeffel but not as we know it

    Are you sure about that not a dictatorship part? Because the authoritarian asshole appointed by less than 1% of the population suspending the elected national legislature to force through his agenda sure seems like a dictatorship. Let's just call an apple an apple. Maybe more people will respond forcefully if they deal with the reality that this is a coup.
  10. davos

    U.S. Politics: Moscow Mitch

    As a Wisconsinite, born and raised an hour west of Green Bay and sitting at my computer right now half an hour west of Madison, I can tell you flat out that is not true. I frequently eat high end cheese and drink quality beer. And know many people from this state that do as well. I'm sitting right now within a hour driving distance of at least a dozen world class cheese makers and 5 or 6 top flight breweries. You can say a lot of bad things about this state, but we know our beer and our cheese as well or better than anyone in the world. Yeah, a lot of people here drink shitty beer and eat crappy cheese. That's mostly because its cheaper. We know what's good. We make what's good. We consume a lot of what's good.
  11. davos

    U.S. Politics: Moscow Mitch

    Part of what I was trying to say is that he has very little tools left to try to keep things going. If the situation is such that a recession will start in say, the next 3 months, there simply is not the tools available to hold one back that long. If we were having this conversation a year from now, it would be difficult. 15 months out, there would be no way for him to hold off a recession. Minimize one, possibly, but that would actually require a congress willing to spend money and a president who actually either understood how an economy worked or was willing to listen to those who do. As none of these conditions are met, if a recession is set to start soon, Trump is going to have to face it as part of his reelection efforts.
  12. davos

    U.S. Politics: Moscow Mitch

    The reality is that the Fed doesn't have that much room, especially compared with past recessions, to cut rates in an attempt to hold off or minimize an economic downturn. rates were kept artificially low after the great recession to try to help sustain a recovery that took a long time to gather any serious momentum. They have only been raised in the last few years, and then not much, at least by historical standards. Reality is that we are in an awful spot to confront a major downturn. The Fed doesn't have much room to drop interest rates. Maybe throw out some more QE to try to keep investment going but I doubt the utility of such an approach. The Federal deficit is ballooned under Trump, which would give us little room for a Keynesian type response, even if we had a congress that was willing to dump a vast amount of money into the economy. Which we don't. So if the bottom drops out, there is no parachute. Its going to drop. Add to this that a larger portion of the population is a bad personal position to handle things going bad. Almost all the gains of the recovery went to those at the very top of the economic pyramid. A government that both can't and won't act, a working population that has been stripped both of its own resources and a safety net. It could get really ugly, really fast. And once things start to really slide, ending the idiotic trade war may not be enough to halt things. If recession hits soon, we are in for one shit-storm of a ride. Add to that, a bad economy would end any chance of Trump winning a even vaguely legitimate election. Which means he could turn to the nastiest campaign tactics imaginable, outright political violence, or just try a coup,
  13. davos

    u.s. politics: sundowning on the american empire

    Its a different political world now. and a lot of older folks don't get that. Seri ously, I like some things about Joe as a person. He's dealt with a lot of shit in his life. and come through ok. He can be really funny and genuinely disarming. And he knows how to cut deals, get things done. but he has taken a lot of really problematic positions that were ok at the time but we know recognize as no ok. And he has to deal with that. He has to come to terms that this is a different world and politics as they were done 30 years ago are neither acceptable nor are going to work now. If he can't do so he shouldn't be the nominee. Joe had his moment if he had wanted it. He could have had his party's nomination in 2016. He would have won. Denied the world the awfulness that has been the Trump administration. I'm not sure he would have been a good president but wouldn't have been a dumpster fire either. But that moments gone. 4 years down the road he's the good feelings towards him that rubbed off from Obama are not as strong. 3 years ago he would have essentially been able to make use of the Obama coalition and that, with Trump being a shitstorm of a human being, would have been enough. That coalition doesn't exist anymore. Without that he doesn't have the merits as a candidate to win on his own. If Joe is nominated, we are going to get 4 more years of Trump. We need a new way forward that confronts that reeking sewer that Trump has made of our politics and Joe doesn't have anything close to that on offer. I get why he didn't run in 16. He had just gone through a family tragedy and wasn't up to it. It makes sense. But history has passed him by. He should have gone off into the twilight. Let history remember him as a very good VP. But he's trying for more and that is going to hurt him and could easily hurt all of us if he gets the nomination.
  14. davos

    NBA Offseason: From KD to AD

    I am in no way a Knicks fan, but that was my 2nd thought, after being amazed at the haul NO got from it. The off season has barely began but for the poor Knicks, its already a nightmare. With KD injured, even if they could sign him, he's likely to be a nonfactor next season. Now, with AD going to the Lakers, the other big piece they had to look at is off the table. I suppose they could in theory sign KD, sign Irving, and then stumble through this season with an eye on the next. Its not clear what KD wants to do right now, though. Yes, he's likely to be able to play sometime next season,. But there is a good chance he won't be at his former level until the following one, if he does back there. I don't see Irving coming to a team to spin his wheels for a year. I think, if the relationship between the Celtics and him is not too badly broken, that he's far more likely to stay there and see if they can tweek the roster enough to fix the problems from this season. The Knicks maybe able to land a 2nd tier free agent or two. There are some good ones out there. But I don't see them being able to bring in the superstar kind of talent that they were maneuvering all season to have an angle at. I also question how good a combination AD and LeBron actually is. By themselves, with the players LA has at the moment, I just don't see it working. If they can bring in a top flight point guard and some shooters then it could be a scary team. At the moment though, its an awful lot of talent in two players but its not a team. And holy shit did NO make out. Mind you, ZW's knees or ankles could prove to not be able to handle stress from the kind of moves he makes with that massive frame at the speeds he makes them over the course of an NBA season or two. I don't think that will happen but its my one real question mark with him moving up to this level. And whatever the final outcome (as we are not sure they are done making moves yet) could not gel well. But they went from a disaster to a team that is going to be exciting to watch amazingly quickly. And if Zion proves to be everything he has the potential to be and the young former lakers continue to develop, they could be legitimate contenders with in a few season.
  15. davos

    Avengers Endgame- SPOILERS

    Great film. There is some time travel problems that the film didn't bother tying off. Frustrating but not a huge deal for this kind of movie. The one thing that really eats at me though, that was not mentioned, is the impact of the bring all the snapped back after 5 years. Its not just that family and friends would have moved on, making it difficult for a lot of the snapped to find a place, there are numerous other problems caused by this solution. Food production would have fallen drastically, both due to having the number of people to feed cut in half but also from having half the labor force cut. Housing stocks would have declined. Half the people would mean a lot of places sit unused and are allowed to decay. 5 years is a long time to leave an apartment or home empty. Infrastructure would have decayed both due to having half the population to provide for and not having the people to maintain it at its former level. I could go on. Basically you would have half the world traumatized by having lost the other half and then having to deal with the fallout from the snap over 5 years and the other half being traumatized from, their perspective, being transported 5 years into a future that had moved on without them. There is going to be starvation on a massive scale, disease outbreaks from lacking the medical and sanitary systems to manage a suddenly doubled population, and general chaos as governments already in bad shape from the snap have to deal with another shock to the system. A substantial portion of the population is not going to make it through the first couple of years after the snap being reversed. While taking a guess at the impact without being an expert in a number of different fields is hard, I could see total looses before things stabilize of at least a quarter of the population and possible pushing towards half. It would be bad. Any post-apocolypse I can think of has a massively reduced poplulation. This would be the first post apocalyptic world dealing with a sudden massive increase in population. It would actually be interesting for a story to following through on the implications of something like this. Horrific but interesting. Maybe it was the only solution that would work given their rules of time-travel. But it would have really helped to have one of the very smart, very savvy people in the avengers at least mention that it would be very messy at the least. There should have been an argument about rather it would be worth undoing given the consequences. Returning the lost is great. Returning them to a nightmare where a good chunk of them will suffer and die horrible is not so great. Possible the best of some bad options. Instead of dealing with it though, they ignored that element implicate in story. It bothers me more than a little. Which is sad because otherwise it was a fantastic end to the most ambitious project in film history, something that may well be unrepeatable.