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davos

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About davos

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    can't stop the signal
  • Birthday 10/29/1975

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  1. davos

    U.S. Politics: Moscow Mitch

    As a Wisconsinite, born and raised an hour west of Green Bay and sitting at my computer right now half an hour west of Madison, I can tell you flat out that is not true. I frequently eat high end cheese and drink quality beer. And know many people from this state that do as well. I'm sitting right now within a hour driving distance of at least a dozen world class cheese makers and 5 or 6 top flight breweries. You can say a lot of bad things about this state, but we know our beer and our cheese as well or better than anyone in the world. Yeah, a lot of people here drink shitty beer and eat crappy cheese. That's mostly because its cheaper. We know what's good. We make what's good. We consume a lot of what's good.
  2. davos

    U.S. Politics: Moscow Mitch

    Part of what I was trying to say is that he has very little tools left to try to keep things going. If the situation is such that a recession will start in say, the next 3 months, there simply is not the tools available to hold one back that long. If we were having this conversation a year from now, it would be difficult. 15 months out, there would be no way for him to hold off a recession. Minimize one, possibly, but that would actually require a congress willing to spend money and a president who actually either understood how an economy worked or was willing to listen to those who do. As none of these conditions are met, if a recession is set to start soon, Trump is going to have to face it as part of his reelection efforts.
  3. davos

    U.S. Politics: Moscow Mitch

    The reality is that the Fed doesn't have that much room, especially compared with past recessions, to cut rates in an attempt to hold off or minimize an economic downturn. rates were kept artificially low after the great recession to try to help sustain a recovery that took a long time to gather any serious momentum. They have only been raised in the last few years, and then not much, at least by historical standards. Reality is that we are in an awful spot to confront a major downturn. The Fed doesn't have much room to drop interest rates. Maybe throw out some more QE to try to keep investment going but I doubt the utility of such an approach. The Federal deficit is ballooned under Trump, which would give us little room for a Keynesian type response, even if we had a congress that was willing to dump a vast amount of money into the economy. Which we don't. So if the bottom drops out, there is no parachute. Its going to drop. Add to this that a larger portion of the population is a bad personal position to handle things going bad. Almost all the gains of the recovery went to those at the very top of the economic pyramid. A government that both can't and won't act, a working population that has been stripped both of its own resources and a safety net. It could get really ugly, really fast. And once things start to really slide, ending the idiotic trade war may not be enough to halt things. If recession hits soon, we are in for one shit-storm of a ride. Add to that, a bad economy would end any chance of Trump winning a even vaguely legitimate election. Which means he could turn to the nastiest campaign tactics imaginable, outright political violence, or just try a coup,
  4. Its a different political world now. and a lot of older folks don't get that. Seri ously, I like some things about Joe as a person. He's dealt with a lot of shit in his life. and come through ok. He can be really funny and genuinely disarming. And he knows how to cut deals, get things done. but he has taken a lot of really problematic positions that were ok at the time but we know recognize as no ok. And he has to deal with that. He has to come to terms that this is a different world and politics as they were done 30 years ago are neither acceptable nor are going to work now. If he can't do so he shouldn't be the nominee. Joe had his moment if he had wanted it. He could have had his party's nomination in 2016. He would have won. Denied the world the awfulness that has been the Trump administration. I'm not sure he would have been a good president but wouldn't have been a dumpster fire either. But that moments gone. 4 years down the road he's the good feelings towards him that rubbed off from Obama are not as strong. 3 years ago he would have essentially been able to make use of the Obama coalition and that, with Trump being a shitstorm of a human being, would have been enough. That coalition doesn't exist anymore. Without that he doesn't have the merits as a candidate to win on his own. If Joe is nominated, we are going to get 4 more years of Trump. We need a new way forward that confronts that reeking sewer that Trump has made of our politics and Joe doesn't have anything close to that on offer. I get why he didn't run in 16. He had just gone through a family tragedy and wasn't up to it. It makes sense. But history has passed him by. He should have gone off into the twilight. Let history remember him as a very good VP. But he's trying for more and that is going to hurt him and could easily hurt all of us if he gets the nomination.
  5. davos

    NBA Offseason: From KD to AD

    I am in no way a Knicks fan, but that was my 2nd thought, after being amazed at the haul NO got from it. The off season has barely began but for the poor Knicks, its already a nightmare. With KD injured, even if they could sign him, he's likely to be a nonfactor next season. Now, with AD going to the Lakers, the other big piece they had to look at is off the table. I suppose they could in theory sign KD, sign Irving, and then stumble through this season with an eye on the next. Its not clear what KD wants to do right now, though. Yes, he's likely to be able to play sometime next season,. But there is a good chance he won't be at his former level until the following one, if he does back there. I don't see Irving coming to a team to spin his wheels for a year. I think, if the relationship between the Celtics and him is not too badly broken, that he's far more likely to stay there and see if they can tweek the roster enough to fix the problems from this season. The Knicks maybe able to land a 2nd tier free agent or two. There are some good ones out there. But I don't see them being able to bring in the superstar kind of talent that they were maneuvering all season to have an angle at. I also question how good a combination AD and LeBron actually is. By themselves, with the players LA has at the moment, I just don't see it working. If they can bring in a top flight point guard and some shooters then it could be a scary team. At the moment though, its an awful lot of talent in two players but its not a team. And holy shit did NO make out. Mind you, ZW's knees or ankles could prove to not be able to handle stress from the kind of moves he makes with that massive frame at the speeds he makes them over the course of an NBA season or two. I don't think that will happen but its my one real question mark with him moving up to this level. And whatever the final outcome (as we are not sure they are done making moves yet) could not gel well. But they went from a disaster to a team that is going to be exciting to watch amazingly quickly. And if Zion proves to be everything he has the potential to be and the young former lakers continue to develop, they could be legitimate contenders with in a few season.
  6. davos

    Avengers Endgame- SPOILERS

    Great film. There is some time travel problems that the film didn't bother tying off. Frustrating but not a huge deal for this kind of movie. The one thing that really eats at me though, that was not mentioned, is the impact of the bring all the snapped back after 5 years. Its not just that family and friends would have moved on, making it difficult for a lot of the snapped to find a place, there are numerous other problems caused by this solution. Food production would have fallen drastically, both due to having the number of people to feed cut in half but also from having half the labor force cut. Housing stocks would have declined. Half the people would mean a lot of places sit unused and are allowed to decay. 5 years is a long time to leave an apartment or home empty. Infrastructure would have decayed both due to having half the population to provide for and not having the people to maintain it at its former level. I could go on. Basically you would have half the world traumatized by having lost the other half and then having to deal with the fallout from the snap over 5 years and the other half being traumatized from, their perspective, being transported 5 years into a future that had moved on without them. There is going to be starvation on a massive scale, disease outbreaks from lacking the medical and sanitary systems to manage a suddenly doubled population, and general chaos as governments already in bad shape from the snap have to deal with another shock to the system. A substantial portion of the population is not going to make it through the first couple of years after the snap being reversed. While taking a guess at the impact without being an expert in a number of different fields is hard, I could see total looses before things stabilize of at least a quarter of the population and possible pushing towards half. It would be bad. Any post-apocolypse I can think of has a massively reduced poplulation. This would be the first post apocalyptic world dealing with a sudden massive increase in population. It would actually be interesting for a story to following through on the implications of something like this. Horrific but interesting. Maybe it was the only solution that would work given their rules of time-travel. But it would have really helped to have one of the very smart, very savvy people in the avengers at least mention that it would be very messy at the least. There should have been an argument about rather it would be worth undoing given the consequences. Returning the lost is great. Returning them to a nightmare where a good chunk of them will suffer and die horrible is not so great. Possible the best of some bad options. Instead of dealing with it though, they ignored that element implicate in story. It bothers me more than a little. Which is sad because otherwise it was a fantastic end to the most ambitious project in film history, something that may well be unrepeatable.
  7. This is also a very unusual shutdown. For starters, its was largely the white house that instigated this. Past shutdowns have generally originated in congress. It's also Trump and everything he does breaks the rules. This may well be the case where it finally bites him in the ass by sticking to him for a long time rather than fading away like other shutdowns.
  8. davos

    U.S. Politics: Oh Donnie Boy, the Feds are calling...

    i really don't care that she announced during a shutdown. The country is likely to be in a perpetual Trump created crisis for the next two years. Its very possible that there will not be an ideal time to announce one's candidacy and avoid being accused by someone of being tone-def. Her timing doesn't effect my opinion of either Warren or her candidacy either way. I frankly doubt it will carry much lasting impact on her chances. We are so far out that any negative impact would long be mitigated, if she had a solid candidacy and a well run campaign in other aspects. Given that a POTUS campaign is long, requires the building of a massive machine to support it , and the gathering of equally massive financial resources, many candidates have already in all but name thrown their hat into the ring. We are almost certainly going to see others making it official in the coming weeks. They almost have to. Its ridiculous. Its poisonous. And its an integral part of the US presidential election cycle. While a few big names maybe able to wait and not hurt their chances and a few currently less well positioned may chose to come in late hoping to look like a fresh alternative to what will have become an all too familiar pack, most who want to run have to make their moves soon regardless of the situation. This is not stupid democrats. This is not being selfish. Its reality. I'm not big on Warren, but I'm not really sold on any of the long list of potential candidates at the moment. She has done some good in her public career and she's certainly qualified. She's likely to not make it that far. But I can understand the rational for her run.
  9. The problem is that to remove a sitting president is still a political decision, not one based on laws. Its likely a vote to impeach could get through the house but it would be meaningless. Successful conviction would require 2/3 of the senate, and there is zero chance of that happening. There are simply not enough GOP senators that put country before party to vote Trump out. This is especially true given the nature of the crimes committed. While of the deepest gravity, and while quite likely traitorous, they are too esoteric for much of the public, especially most of the demographics that make up Trump's base, to really wrap their head around how bad they truly are. There are enough Senators that live in states where the voting electorate contains close to a majority of Trump supporters. For them to turn on the Donald, there would have to be significant pressure from their constituents. These crimes are not going to flip enough of these voters to actually make senators from those deep red states change their calculations. If they vote innocent they are safe, if they vote guilty they may well loose their jobs. It might be possible if we found that Trump did something more readily graspable, like say, murder. As things stand there is no chance of conviction. Sadly, we are stuck with Trump for the remainder of this term. And it actually gets worse. Its likely, given what we can see of the Mueller investigation, that more and more evidence will come out that connects Trump directly to illegal election manipulation by the Russians. While large regions of the country might be controlled by committed Trump partisans, this is actually a significant minority of the electorate nationally. Combine increased outrage with Trump's crimes with anger from many of those voters, particularly in the Midwest who bought into Trump's economic snake oil and are not finding themselves completely fucked, and his position nationally is going to deteriorate drastically. Trump will be backed in an ever tighter corner, surrounded by a nation that has rejected him but lacks a way to remove him, constantly hearing about his crimes and his horrid situation from the media he hates, and completely lacking the skills to deal with the demands of a presidency, much less one in the midst of a constitutional crisis. He will become increasingly dangerous both to the country and to the world.
  10. davos

    Chess - the world in black and white

    It was well accepted that Magnus had the edge in the tie breakers. I didn't expect him to just dominate Fabi like that though. I haven't had a chance to look through analysis but Fabi may have had chances to at least tie in the first game. Magnus just proved sharper in an end game when both were in time trouble. Outside of that Magnus just was the better player in that format. He was sharp, he was aggressive, and locked onto any advantage available and just kept turning. From the light of right now, it would seem that Magnus was smart to play it safer most of the match and that Fabi needed to try to find more opportunities to press. Carlsen well understood both his strengths and his opponents weaknesses and played the match accordingly. The next cycle is far away, and perhaps Carlsen will slip in that time. If he retains his form, I'm hoping that someone who is more comfortable in shorter game formats is the challenger so that Magnus can't repeat this approach with the same kind of confidence.
  11. davos

    GATTACA!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Eventually using genetic editing tools to greatly reduce or even eliminate certain genetic diseases will be the norm. We shouldn't hide from this technology. We should make sure it is properly tested and that a proper regulatory and ethical environment is built around it to prevent abuse. My concern with this is that it seems they jumped way ahead when we have only had successful animal trials not that long ago. We would have been well advised to have a better understanding of what the risks and implications are before jumping into engineering traits in embryos.
  12. davos

    Chess - the world in black and white

    Shocked that Carlsen didn't press that position, especially given the kind of time trouble Fabi was in. He had an attack coming that would have been hard for white to find a way through. He's been the dominate force in chess for nearly a decade. He's won 3 world championship matches. You are the best player in the world with a meaningful advantage in a potentially decisive game, you almost need to play it out. To me, he's been a great champion but he's not the player he was 4 years ago.
  13. davos

    Chess - the world in black and white

    Game 12 is actually kind of interesting so far. 22 moves in and only 1 pawn from each side off the board. There is a lot of tension and a lot of complexity. There are going to be some fireworks at some point. Right now I like Carlsen's chances better, especially with Fabi being way down in time for having 18 moves to time control in a really involved position.
  14. davos

    Chess - the world in black and white

    Game six was insane, with Carlsen finally taking Fabi on in the Petrov. A crazy opening that was half Knight moves, solid middle game that ended with an piece sac give Carlsen a 3 pawn edge, and a intense end game in which Fabi apparently (according to a super computer) missed a 30 move forced mate that no one can quite understand. Still a draw but by far the best game of the match. Game seven was a solid, interesting, but uneventful draw. Fabi is playing well, Carlsen doesn't seem as sharp as he has been, but I still give the edge to the defending champ.
  15. davos

    Chess - the world in black and white

    After coming out swinging in the first game, it appears Carsen is now willing to grind things out. Just like working down a small but meaningful advantage into a winning end game, he knows that if it comes down the tie break, that being stronger in the blitz and rapid formats gives him a meaningful advantage. It will be interesting to see at what point Fabi takes a real swing to try to win a game and prevent that from happening. There are going to be fireworks at some point and it almost has to be from Fabi (unless of course Fabi makes an error that Carlsen jumps on).
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