IheartIheartTesla

Haley got 150k votes, which is not insubstantial. It may not mean much....but interesting that Republicans are still registering their displeasure with their choice. 

No, its a mental one for me, but I always run through it before leaving the house and before checking out at a hotel.

For non-Americans, everything else indeed can be purchased, but not prescription medication. There are some emergency vacation supplies you might be able to wrangle at the holiday destination, but I want never to be in that position.

Waiting on the results of the PA primary to see what lessons we can learn. Again, its going to be the number of Haley voters (she's still on the ballot I believe) and 'uncommitted' write-ins against Biden. 

This is all very boring and jejune for a dating thread, but here goes anyway. I have a checklist for travel always, usually its meds, electronics (like chargers, very important), toiletries and clothing. 

Everything else indeed is a want. For instance, protection and sex toys can and should be purchased on site. No need to give the fascist goons manning security any reason to stop you or judge you.

Looks like the Indian elections will have 970 million eligible voters, so that would easily be 500+ million actually voting. But not my parents, since they moved states recently and its a pain to get on the rolls. Not sure their 2 votes would have made a difference to Modi's juggernaut though.

Just to be clear, Ozempic is the version of semaglutide that is specifically geared towards diabetes, while Wegovy is the (only?) one approved for weight loss. I take the former, but cant say I've been overrun by a case of the toots. Thats pure cheeto energy.

I'm sad about LD ending, but I believe they also announced that SNW was renewed for a fourth season. I'm guessing cold, hard cash is at the center of a lot of these decisions.

Yes, and I think the statistics bear that out in that most successful relationships tend to be with partners in the same socioeconomic class. Also, in terms of preference its fairly common, which most people have internalized.

Although I have to point out one of my favorite Onion headlines "Woman Relieved Soulmate Turned Out To Be In Same Socioeconomic Bracket"

"Pays the same marginal tax rate as me" is my solution to broaden her dating pool, and best hope the US doesn't adopt a flat income tax rate  anytime soon.

Funnily enough, Canada provided India with a nuclear reactor (CIRUS) that eventually generated enough plutonium for the latter's first nuclear test in 1974. Mostly without the knowledge of the former of course, but they had their suspicions. There are other nations using Canadian nuclear technology mostly for power production, I think safeguards were put in place to prevent use for other stuff.

I grew up...about 2 miles from where the CIRUS reactor was.

I mean, sitting through 6 hours of baseball* would be equally dull, if you're not into people ambling across a diamond (occasionally). The things we do for lust, eh?

*pick your boring sportsball game of choice

For those of you thinking the ballot measures will make Florida competitive, I just saw a recent Emerson College poll (and they are decent pollsters if I remember Silver's ratings from last cycle) that had Trump up +13 (1000 RV). Still early days, but my prognosis at this time is that Florida will flatter only to deceive come election day.

Michigan legalization appears to have been seamless. Or at least, I didnt notice too many hiccups. Note that it was a petition that got on the ballot because of enough signatures and passed pretty easily.

I'm not sure why that was the case, but my own town still doesnt have a dispensary because it is a bit old fashioned.

The less you vote, the more you back Trump - ABC News (go.com)

538 has a recent article about some of the things we've talked about here, namely the impact of turnout and frequency of voter participation in elections.

Quote

And when we broke out respondents by their voting history, we found dramatic differences in whom they support for president in 2024. President Joe Biden performed much better among frequent voters, while Trump had a large lead among people who haven't voted recently. Specifically, among respondents who voted in the 2018, 2020 and 2022 general elections, Biden outpaced Trump 50 percent to 39 percent. But among respondents who were old enough to vote but voted in none of those three elections, Trump crushed Biden 44 percent to 26 percent.

Quote

The fact that Trump did better among less frequent voters sheds light on another widely discussed trend: the declining levels of support for Democrats among Black and Hispanic Americans. Our NORC poll suggests that erosion is especially pronounced among less frequent voters. For instance, Biden led among Black respondents who voted in 2020 by 64 points, but he led among those who were registered but didn't vote by just 11 points. Biden's margin over Trump among Black citizens who don't appear to be registered to vote*** was also just 16 points. So it's not that Biden is uniformly underperforming with Black Americans — it's that he is underperforming specifically with Black citizens who don't consistently vote.

Well, who knows what turnout will look like in November. But still, interesting to see how high turnout for minorities who infrequently vote will be.

1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

The precence of an abortion rights question on the Florida Ballot has made the Presidential election in Florida that much more… interesting.  Trump is trying to split the baby.  

The Arizona SC just upheld an 1864 law basically banning nearly all abortions, and I think there is a move there from pro-choice proponents to get a prop on the ballots in November. 

Being smart in bed is underrated

5 hours ago, Tears of Lys said:

You lost me there.  "Rock City?"  

Apparently it's a nickname for Detroit (based on rock and roll no doubt). I'm more familiar with motor city or motown.....

Forecasts have been trending towards warmer temperatures and clearer skies here in mid-Michigan, so it should be great viewing. Looking forward to even the partial eclipse.

12 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

It’s even been pointed out that Einstein used the solar eclipse of 1919 to prove his theory of relativity.

To be precise, Eddington and his colleagues provided experimental evidence that validated Einstein's general theory of relativity, by measuring positions of stars normally not visible during daytime compared to their position at night.

I've also noticed Biden poll numbers being slightly better in an LV versus RV or A screen, so thats good to hear it wasnt just my imagination. Regarding turnout, we wont hit the heights of 2020, thats for sure. 

In more poll news. hearing things about Biden's position improving in the swing states, possibly coinciding with post SoTU and general better feeling about the state of the economy. Good news, he has plenty of time to keep gaining momentum. Not so good news, everything is on a knife edge so any downturn in the economy will kill his chances.

Yeah, he's putting out feelers to see what your situationship is. A more sophisticated version of the 3 am 'wyd' text (in my humble opinion). Just listen to New Rules by Dua Lipa if you dont want to go down that route. 

I dont think anything, this is what the polling indicates right now. Biden does noticeably worse when candidates like RFK are included. As I've noted before, a lot of this support vaporizes when the election rolls around, but its still troubling enough.

I've seen some opinion articles on my feed that Biden is slowly 'edging ahead' of Trump in the polls. I dont see it myself in the data (its pretty much statistically tied with Biden slightly worse in swing states). So I have to wonder if this is Democrats changing the algorithm through seeded articles to mitigate some of the doom and gloom permeating the left. 

Another thing to watch out for is how many third parties actually make the ballots. The Libertarians and Greens are solid, but RFK may not be on that many states choices. He's the one I'm most worried about though.

15 hours ago, DMC said:

In terms of demos, one thing I'll say I don't buy is the (comparatively) porous numbers Biden is getting among Black voters.  Again, I don't think the polls are "wrong" in this regard, it's just important to keep in mind polls are snapshots at a certain point in time.  I think push comes to shove, Black voters will come back to Biden come November.  

That's what I think too, or at least I hope thats the truth. Biden needs those large Black turnout numbers in cities like Atlanta and Philly to stand a chance in those states. At the same time, ignoring troubling signs among some sections of Hispanic voters is what resulted in the Miami-Dade disaster, and I wouldnt want his team to ignore those signs. I hope some outreach is planned to the communities comprising members of his 2020 coalition.

538 wrote an article today about how polls in this stage didnt correlate all that well with general election results, but if was mostly unconvincing (not sure historical data from the 70s has much relevance in this cycle - we need in-cycle explanations). Still, the point they made about the Biden campaign publicly dissing polls was a good one, there is still time to turn this around as long as the problem is recognized. I hope the internal discussions are different.

One thing that is concerning is two cycles now where Trump numbers were underestimated. Is that being overcorrected for this cycle? Hard to say, but the average of polls can still be biased because of some hidden variable. Or it could be the underestimation is true this cycle too, in which case ....Biden is in some trouble.