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Everything posted by Makk

  1. Makk

    How are they gonna get outta this one??

    Politically Jaime's birth carries much more value to the nights watch than hundreds of men. Functionally he would actually be better now than when he had two hands because he is a better person, but even without the readers knowledge, he would be fine as a steward or lord commander, just not a ranger or builder. The nightswatch also gain a king of the north who is sympathetic. Regardless I don't really see Catelyn as asking. The trade would be backed up by a large force and largely be made for legitimacy so no vows were broken (although I think Jaime will end up being hugely valuable as lord commander).
  2. Makk

    How are they gonna get outta this one??

    Robb seemed to think they would if he sent 20 men. The kingslayer should be worth more than 20.
  3. Makk

    How are they gonna get outta this one??

    It is supposed to be a decision she doesn't like, something that is very hard for her. That is what GRRM writes about. But there need to be not only compelling reasons why she wouldn't, but compelling reasons why she should. Would it be doing it for Jon or for Robb? Robb's last wish/order was that Jon would succeed him if anything should happen. There was a big deal made about this with a very powerfully written scene. Jon, Robb and Catelyn have always a fully fleshed out and complicated relationship, GRRM has put a lot of words and care into it. And now Robb was murdered. Does she really disrespect his last his last wish? I think not. And it is also logical if she wants to see the north recover as a kingdom as Robb was completely correct, the north needs a son of Eddard Stark to follow and rally around. Now this does rely on Stoneheart still being Catelyn and not a 100% "embodiment of Cat's wrath and fury". Very little is known about Lady Stoneheart as a person because we have only caught glimpses of her from a single chapter of Merret Frey and a single chapter of Brienne. And consider the possibility that the entire Brienne chapter was an act to try and make her do something she wouldn't normally do - betray someone. If she is pure hate and nothing else she would be one of the most one dimensional characters he has ever written. I am sure there is a lot of hate there, but there is definitely cognisant thought as well. Is she close to weeping? Whatever it is there is definitely thought and emotion as she considers Robb's crown. Why did she want the crown and what is she going to do with it? And although there is a great geographical distance between her and the wall, you also need to consider that the last Jaime chapter occurs months (roughly 3) before the most advanced other story lines. Whatever has been happening to Stoneheart, Jaime and co, it hasn't been notable enough to interact with any of these other story lines, travelling to the wall during this time would be perfectly viable. And of course it is a happy coincidence that Jon needs resurrecting and Catelyn can probably resurrect one person by sacrificing her own (un)life. It would be a very powerful way symbolically to give up hate. We will see who is correct when the next book comes out.
  4. Makk

    How are they gonna get outta this one??

    Jaime I believe Catelyn will offer Jaime a chance to take the black as an exchange to free Jon Snow, her sons heir, from his vows. Theon I think Asha will end up using him as a puppet, making him King of the Iron Isles (claiming kingsmoot is invalid because he wasn't present) and ruling through him. I don't have a strong feeling of how he is going to escape from Stannis though. Perhaps the battle will proceed and buy him some time? Perhaps Asha has a plan to escape? Perhaps Bran or Bloodraven or the Three eyed crow will pull some mystic stuff. Arya I find Arya the hardest to know where here story is going. I think news of Jon's "death" will pull her back to Westeros, but then what? I don't feel anything I have heard suggested fits particularly well.
  5. Makk

    Do You Think Sam Will Forge His Chain?

    No. I believe Euron is about to sack old town including the citadel.
  6. Makk

    Poll: Is Sweetrobin the Son of Littlefinger?

    No, no chance Imo. If there was a chance lyssa would have said something completely different.
  7. Makk

    Dany's dream about the Trident

    Rhaegar thought he was the prince that was promised. Then he realised he was wrong and thought it would be his first son Aegon. It is then likely Imo that he realised he was wrong again and that it would be his son with lyana. Anyway, when he road to the trident he was not under that belief.
  8. Makk

    Please explain Ramsay and the Pink Letter.

    There was nothing in the post which I originally quoted where you made any reference to Stannis winning the battle, it was all based on speculation the Freys win comfortably and quickly. I wouldn't personally consider Stannis making Tybald send a Raven very likely since it is an unnecessary risk with a hidden meaning. But I'm not going to get into an argument over whether that is Stannis sending it or Tybald sending it. I agree with all of that except that last part. There are two ways of doing it. You can come back with Stannis's men disguised as Freys and then attack immediately. But there would still be a fight and Stannis ideally needs to do more than just win a battle, he has southern ambitions. He would lose fewer men if the Karstarks and White Harbour forces enter, present Roose with a frostbitten head, magic sword, and possibly Asha (if you want a POV). They have a mock argument blaming each other for the battle going astray with many Freys and Karstarks dying, and then they murder and/or capture enough Boltons at night or at least wait until then to open the gates for Stannis's forces. This is also supported by the Pink letter as Ramsay says he has Stannis's magic sword. Stannis doesn't really know much at all. The circumstances of his upcoming victory have basically fallen into his hands entirely by luck and the efforts of Wyman Manderly, Alys Karstark, a Bravossi banker and Jon Snow. He has no idea about the loyalties of those inside the castle.
  9. Makk

    Please explain Ramsay and the Pink Letter.

    Neither Ramsay nor Stannis nor Mance have any knowledge of the number of troops at Jon's disposal (unless someone at the wall secretly sent a Raven, then Ramsay could in theory know I guess). Do you really think Ramsay would have thought he could lure Jon out with no army behind him? I simply disagree with you about a rant being poor writing, not everything needs to be a cunning plan. If there is any ulterior motive behind it, it is a threat saying that if you reveal my bride is a fake I will come and kill you.
  10. Makk

    Please explain Ramsay and the Pink Letter.

    That's not based on the text, the text states Tybald has been caught and is now imprisoned with no control of the Ravens. You're basing your argument entirely on checkov's gun which doesn't have to hold true. Or you could argue it has already been fulfilled, the remaining Ravens were already used by Stannis to find Tybald guilty. Or Stannis uses the Ravens (which isn't Tybald). I don't think the "seven days of battle" is particularly important myself. However they don't need the ravens nor do they have to move straight away. It would actually make sense that they stop for a few days after gaining supplies from the defeated Freys and White Harbour men. They are starving and resting for a few days after some decent food would let them regather strength. They do also need to concoct an excuse of why all the Freys are missing which I explained in the previous post you replied to. Even if Stannis then forces Tybald to write a letter, that is Stannis sending it not Tybald. And that would be a risk since Tybald could write in a different style to make Roose suspicious. I am in no way suggesting a siege. I don't necessarily believe sending out the forces was a mistake from Roose. He has pretty much already lost imo because I think it likely most of the men inside Winterfell, with the exception of his own and the Freys, have already turned on him. He realises that is likely the case for White Harbour, but he thought the others were still at least pliable. So he sent the Freys as well for political reasons since everyone else hates them.
  11. Makk

    Please explain Ramsay and the Pink Letter.

    I just want to point out that this assumption is almost certainly incorrect. At the very least, I find it quite unlikely that Tybald was sending any Ravens. Winds of Winter spoiler from Theon 1 An alternative. Once The Freys and White Harbour forces reach Stannis, the White Harbour forces turn their banners while the Frey forces charge straight across ice to their death giving Stannis an easy victory. Under Stannis' new plan to sneak into Winterfell under the guise of the Karstarks and White Harbourians, he has to come up with some sort of excuse as to why all the Freys are dead. He does so by making out that the battle was hard fought. Perhaps the Kartarks would claim the Freys mostly died (truly) in the initial charge across rotten ice, then the White Harbour forces were too timid to engage. It turned into a battle of attrition and took seven days. I think there is much, much more to the point of GRRM writing the letter from Ramsay than a rant. It serves as both a misdirection to the reader making them think Stannis is dead when in fact he is not, and a plot device to convince Jon to break his vows. But from the character Ramsay's POV, there really doesn't have to be anything more than having an angry rant, its a perfectly valid and believable motivation imo. You see this sort of thing all the time internet message boards.
  12. Makk

    Who is the 3EC?

    I'm pretty 50-50 over this. I think there are good clues indicating Bloodraven is not the three eyed crow and I like the story implications of what that would mean. But unlike the best theories, all of the clues can be just as soundly argued against and I'm not sure there is room in the remaining story to run with a major plot twist in this area. It is much less absurd than some of these other polls at the moment though.
  13. That's his image. He would hardly be the first character who has different thoughts to what he says.
  14. I think Oleena obviously and margaery to some extent. I think Garlan was likely as well. If you read the entire scene knowing he was the one who actually killed Joffery, it is an entirely different take on his character than if he was completely oblivious to it.
  15. Makk

    Euron's Plan after Oldtown

    I don't think he cares about his men, fleets, or conquest at all. I think the entire invasion was a distraction so he could slip around the back and sack old town. He wants something magical from the citadel and he will sacrifice all his men to get it. His fleet will lose the battle but they will have achieved their purpose.
  16. For myself I think it is the only argument, although I have no doubt that Dayne and Whent at least were more loyal to Rhaegar, that isn't really the point. At this stage the Targaryen legacy is in ruins and their rule at and end. They knew Rhaegar is dead and they would have known Lyana was likely dying. The best thing for Jon would be exactly what happened. The one man in the entire seven kingdoms who can and would protect Jon and give him the best possible life shows up and the Kingsguard are prepared to fight and kill him? Almost certainly against Lyana's wishes. Imo they fully intended to crown Jon and try to make him King. Ned didn't understand this as they fought, it completely confused him. As soon as he saw Jon he would have understood.
  17. Makk

    The Blackfish and the Brotherhood

    I would caution anyone about reading too much into what Brienne saw of the brotherhood in her final feast chapters. I feel the entire scene was to convince Brienne to do something she would never normally consider doing- betraying her friend Jaime. To this end the outlaws needed an angle. And that was that they were going to hang the innocent Pod.
  18. Makk

    Jon Snow's Real Name

    Thinking about this quote more I started to wonder if there was more to this and it turns out people have already built solid theories around it. They are not the same people but there are unmistakable parallels and it gives clues as to events that may happen in the rest of the story. Robb Telling-the-future-from-the-past-the-foolish-wolf Jon The-stubborn-dragon This may not influence Jon's name, I still don't believe Lyana named him, but I am now convinced his character is based upon Aemon Targaryen... and Ryam Redwyne. Or more correctly they are based on Jon Snow. Likewise Robb has very strong parallels as a combination of Daeron "the young dragon" Targaryen and Florian the fool. In Robb's case they are arguably even stronger and more obvious, although this may be because his story is at an end and we know all of it. To summarise the above links Robb, like Daeron, was a young King and a military genius, although in both cases their success on the battlefield was fleeting. They were known as the Young Wolf and the Young Dragon respectively. They both made use of a animals track to slip behind the enemy unknown to record some of their most remarkable victories. Robb was betrayed and murdered at the Red Wedding, effectively an event organised to make good with his former allies, Daeron was betrayed and murdered at peace talks. Florian represents Robb's tragic love story as a catalyst to his demise. As for Jon, he and Aemon became lord commander of the Nightswatch and Kingsguard respectively at a young age. They were both cousins to the King. They both loved their "sisters" very much although it was unclear whether this was in a carnal manner or not. They both survived assassination attempts (assuming Jon isn't actually dead). As for Ryam Redwyne, the writer of those theories based this on their shared stubbornness and honour. When they wrote that very little was known about Ryam Redwyne, now Fire and Blood is out it would be interesting to reexamine Redwyne more to see if there is anything else of interest. If these clues do persist in the story we might see Jon imprisoned and saved by another brother (bran?) and then in turn rescuing that brother by carrying him a long distance to safety. It would also see Jon remain true to his vows and stay at the Nightswatch for the rest of his days rather than become King.
  19. Makk

    Jon Snow's Real Name

    Firstly, sorry for the late reply. Yes, I read your post on page one and no I don't agree with it or your argument that by quoting bits and pieces of text it automatically qualifies as using textual basis and is a stronger argument than judging on potential character motivations. The problem is the two pieces of text you quote and both rely on significant conjecture to twist around to the meaning that supports your argument. In the first case, you are arguing that it means his name is important. It could just as easily (and arguably more likely) means it isn't important. That is if the passage means anything at all. In the second case you seem to be arguing that Aegon is the name for a king, but Lyanna learns Rhaegar, Aegon and Rhaenys are dead so she names Jon Aegon because he will be king. This is your best argument, but it is the kind of symbolism that adds a little bit to an already solid theory, not form the basis of a theory itself. I also find this to be stretching far more than the suggestion that "She would choose a neutral name, not a Valyrien one, as such a name would endanger her child even further" which is a perfectly valid argument imo. Symbolism should not carry any more weight than character motivation. You are asking everyone to get on board with the fact that Lyanna, who if she ever believed in Rhaegars exact interpretation of a prophecy, continues to believe in it after these other key pieces of the prophecy have been killed and proven false. At the same time you said... Where is the textual basis to support that? Sometimes GRRM does lay false clues or red herrings. But not for something as exceptionally unimportant as Jon's Targaryen name. I doubt Rhaegars original names even mean anything since if they did Rhaenys would have probably been named Visenya, with the next child named Rhaenys. Lets look at some other, imo far stronger, symbolism. and I actually remembered it as Jon claiming to be the Young Dragon, but in fact that was Robb while Jon claimed to be the Dragonknight which would actually lend weight to the OP's argument. None of this actually involves the same degree of stretching and mental contortion you are asking for. Jon straight up says I'm prince Aemon. I don't think Jon has a Targaryen name because I don't think his name is important (apart from possibly making Jon Connington grow all warm and fuzzy thinking Rhaegar named Jon after him). But if he does I am now on board with the OP, Aemon. If it turns out I am wrong and you are right feel free to say I told you so, I don't mind that at all.
  20. Makk


    I like a good time travel story but introducing that this late would feel like a genre switch that would invalidate thousands of pages of carefully crafted writing. I don't think it will feature in the story other than the possibility that whatever Bran does has already taken effect on what we have seen.
  21. Makk

    The Blackfish and the Brotherhood

    Tom 'O Sevens had a chance to talk to Edmure alone before he was sent to Riverrun, so I think the Blackfish has almost certainly already been in contact with them. I don't personally believe they see Edmure, Jeyne or Roselyn as being particularly important though, the Kingdom comes first. Also Jaime sent a large force to guard them and as at the end of Dance, Kevan was unaware of any ambush. To me it is exceedingly unlikely that they plan to attack them to free the hostages.
  22. Makk

    Jon Snow's Real Name

    I feel this entire thread is filled with opinion and no textual basis. It is almost entirely speculation.
  23. Makk

    Who is Haldon Halfmaester?

    Not outright. But we are told that a) one of the Sandsnakes, who is not Obara nor Nymeria, loves Oldtown, b) Sarella is the one Sandsnake not in Dorne, c) she is of a studious and curious nature. And the name reversal. And the fact Alleras is from Dorne. And is nicknamed the sphinx. And Alleras's mother was also a trader. I think there is overwhelming evidence of who she really is and I would be absolutely shocked if it is not revealed. There is something major about to happen in Oldtown with the faceless men, Euron and now Sam and Sarrela involved.