Makk

I'm not from the US and I don't understand exactly who you can vote for and when you can vote for them. However I suspect that if people are intending to vote for Biden as president who would normally vote Republican, and are only voting that way because Truimp is deranged, then they are even more likely to vote Republican for the house and senate so Biden doesn't get too much power.

I'm not really sure how you got to this from what I wrote. Perhaps I didn't state clearly enough what I was thinking. I was not suggesting any course of action, I was merely remarking that I thought it would be better in the long term if Trump was defeated again in an election and then sent to jail, rather than being sent to jail before the election (which I am doubtful about the outcome in the timeframe even if the supreme court had not stepped in). I think I am a lot more optimistic/woefully deluded than most people on this board and there seemed to be a lot of despair about the supreme courts decision to hear the immunity case. I think Ukraine will win in the long term with even moderate western assistance, and I think Trumps support and strength peaked around this last November. I'm definitely not suggesting MAGA cultists should be pandered to or any lenience should be shown to Trump, but eventually the issue of the MAGA crowd does need to be addressed and dealt with. I have no idea how you do this as I am continually shocked by their absolute lack of reasoning but I do think they gain strength in numbers. The best way to address them might be a gradual erosion until they lose interest. If Trump was sent to jail before the election there may well an explosion in their numbers fueled by some sort of righteous anger.

Navalny's funeral was held over the weekend. Estimated to be more than 16000 people during the funeral itself and many more kept coming to visit the grave the next day. People were chanting "Ukrainians are not the enemy", "Bring the soldiers home", and "Putin is a murderer". There were around 100 people arrested, obviously far too many people there for widespread arrests but the FSB might be very busy this week, there was a lot of surveillance. This is worth a look Comments from the funeral Also after Ukraine has shot down 14 jets in 15 days there have been no new Russian glide bombs dropped in the last 24 hours. Big relief for the troops on the front line which seems to have stabilised after a massive number of Russian assaults all along the line over the last week.

I think that for the future good, Trump has to be defeated at the election. It's a question of what happens to the entire MAGA crowd and if he is taken down via the courts its going to make that crowd even bigger, nuttier and much easier for someone else to harness if they have a pariah moment.

There are claims that Ukraine has shot down a second A50. Wild if true, Russia has like 5 or 6 of them.

The speaker of the house seems to have way too much power. Being able to simply not vote on any issue he doesn't like or being able to schedule a multiple week holiday whenever there might be a vote of no confidence on him seems bonkers.

Oddly enough it is one of the few times putin has told the truth, albeit inadvertently. The best thing for Russia in the long term is to lose and have a regime change as soon as possible.

One of the scariest things that is not being talked about right now is what Russian society will look like in 20 years if Putin or a like replacement continues in charge. Kids are being brought up right now in the most vile storm of propaganda. I'm disappointed by the numbers that support or just condone the invasion right now. In 20 years its going to be North Korea but with more money, nukes and other weapons.

This is very sad to me as they both appear to have done exceptional jobs. I would be a bit cautious about taking too much from the leaks that papers like the Washington Post and New York times report on. The people making these leaks tend to be biased and irresponsible to be talking in the first place before any decision is reached. There is definitely something there though as both Zelensky and Zaluzhny have aired differences in opinions during interviews. The two issues mentioned here are contradictory, I wouldn't be surprised if it was something more along the lines of Zelensky demanding the offensive last summer, Zaluzhny saying he would need an extra half a million troops for it, and then someone leaking misconstrued details. I can see both perspectives. Politically Ukraine had to make an effort last summer to attack while Zaluzhny felt it was unlikely to work. Further Zelensky believes that to have a future Ukraine can't sustain constant war for too long, while Zaluzhny is thinking more short term. I tend to side with Zaluzhny at the moment, while Russia are being so inept with ill-considered attacks, Ukraine doesn't need to take risks on another offensive, Russia cannot sustain that forever. However if Russia decided to dig in, be more patient and attritional then Ukraine would probably have to come up with another plan. For the longer term, the economy is exceptionally important to Ukraine's freedom. I don't know what the opportunity cost of investing in aquatic drones was, but they have been exceptionally successful. To be taking out 100+ million dollar military assets with a bunch of things that can be produced for a few thousand dollars a pop is sensational. These ships were not just blockading Odessa, they were projecting force and providing surveillance. Forcing the fleet to the far side of Crimea opened up drone attacks onto Russian air defence in Crimea, which opened up missile attacks on air fields, bases, bridges, all of which heavily helps the land war as well as the economy (which also helps the land war).

They have started taking all the 4g towers down each night as they believe it will stop drone attacks. I don't really understand how that works though, GPS should still work without towers and I would have thought that is all the long range drones need.

He has said plenty of stupid things (magnets don't work underwater) and immoral things (as a president I have immunity for everything even killing people) but his voters don't seem to care. The rest of the republican party has been just as stupid and disfunctional. The only hope is that the economy improves.

Can't Democratic and independent voters register and vote in the republican primaries? Seems like a bit of an exploit but given that she is the lesser of two evils I think morals should be left at the door and just get it done.

The front lines didn't move a lot for either side and the places where they did have no strategic value (other than across the Dnipro which is still pretty limited). Its most likely going to come down to attrition and then a economic or political collapse from either side. I can't see peace or a treaty before that because Ukraine has very high resolve and it is the entire countries freedom at stake while for Putin he will probably be killed off if Russia is seen to lose. In general I am a lot more optimistic than most people here. I think the west will continue/start again supplying enough equipment and money to keep Ukraine's military and economy functioning and I think Ukraine inevitably wins although it could well take another 2-3 years. The west has learned and will not try to apply political pressure for Ukraine to do something they shouldn't or are not capable of again. Russia does not have unlimited resources, they do not have a well trained or motivated force, they will continue to face increasing social and economic pressure back home. A lot of Putin's recent bluster is a projection.

IMO its more a fixing operation in that it is forcing/enticing Russia to commit troops to the area. It is the one area of the country that Ukraine currently has air and tactical superiority thanks to the drones, no Russian jamming systems, and elevation from the north side of the river giving artillery a significant advantage. They had a serious problem due to the Russian aviation and glide bombs, but knocking down 4 jets in the area has made the Russians go very quiet with aviation for now. Currently Russia is just throwing away troops and equipment to a swarm of $500 drones. IMO Ukraine can't breakthrough in that area without a massive increase in equipment, and even then it would be very risky. Go South 30-50 kms into the hills and the Russians will have the height and be out of range of artillery from the North side of the river. They can't even push in significant reinforcements because if the Russians did make a focused push the Ukrainians would not have time to retreat. But if the Russians want to keep making stupid assaults in areas they shouldn't, let them.

Ukraine shot down 3 Su-34 bombers in a single Russian offensive against the bridgehead on the east bank of the dnipro. A while ago in this thread I was wondering if there was anything Ukraine could do about aviation attacks in this area, apparently they moved a patriot system in range and it paid off. Should be a massive deterrent from now on.

Yekaterina Duntsova, is a very brave Russian woman who has registered to run in the Russian election campaigning to stop the war, free political prisoners, and stop corruption in the Russian political system. She has got the 500 signatures needed and registered, now she needs 300,000 signatures from 40 different regions. She will probably end up dead or in prison, which she is well aware of, but if she gains enough popularity it could cause putin problems.

Zelensky has no chance of personally persuading Mike Johnson to do anything. I'm convinced the entire Republican party is pathetically adverse to doing anything for the right reasons. If Ukraine fails, or if the war merely drags on, they believe it is good for their chances against Biden and the election, and that is the only thing they care about. The people that need convincing are the voters, they are the ones that will influence the Republican party. The only thing I am hopeful of is a reduced assistance package that the Republicans see as something that will help Ukraine survive without actually being able to win. South Korea however has actually been indirectly supplying Ukraine via the US. They gave the america 400,000 155 artillery shells this year to replenish their stocks so they could supply them to Ukraine. And the Russians are complaining that the North Korean shells are garbage, there were some clips showing them being taken apart with the Russian showing the uneven charge distribution. https://x.com/Tendar/status/1733371358443151581?s=20

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/11/30/europe/russia-train-fire-ukraine-intl/index.html Ukraine may have severely damaged an important tunnel between Russia and china. There was a bit of false information about the size of the explosion on Twitter so we might have to wait a little to verify

Real Chechen independence means getting rid of Kadyrov as well though. I think Kadyrov is just looking to distance himself a little bit from Putin so he has a chance to survive if/when Putin falls.

Gaza is very densely populated, all key sanitation services have shut down, they have roughly about 5% of their water needs, they have a food shortage, and shortage of anti-biotics and other medicines...what sort of evidence are you looking for?

Russia's defense and "law enforcement" spending in 2024 is set to be around 39% of the federal budget. I continue to be amazed that so many Russians are either supportive or ambivalent towards this war. Putin is inflicting staggering both short term and long term damage to the country and not enough Russians care enough to do anything about it.

It's a 100 day plan rather than a 100 point plan. Most of it is repealing legislation the previous government introduced. And a lot of it is to just prepare the legislation rather than action it all the way through the process. There is nothing in there that is particularly ambitious that I can see. I have to say I am not particularly impressed by our system of democracy. Once again Winston peters wields massively more power than he should. And the overhang system is just unfair and exploitable rather than proportional.

I highly doubt the Russians will pull forces south of the Dnipro all the way back to Crimea straight away. Himars with ATACMS have given Ukraine the ability to hit anything in the area all the way down to the coast, but that isn't fire control because of the scarcity and cost of the ammunition. They will only be used on very high value targets and pulling all the way back to Crimea actually means Russia won't have any safe supply depot or airfield inside Ukraine at all. It would also be such a massive morale swing which is very important for both sides at the moment. If they do retreat I think it more likely they will just drop back in a rough line 30-50 kms to the south and out of range of the conventional artillery. They would probably want to keep the road between Hladkivka and Radensk. The Dnipro is still a significant obstacle for Ukraine to launch a full offensive and putting too many forces across is a big risk because they cannot retreat easily. If the Russians were really short on manpower they could drop back to the T2210 which starts at the (former) Nova Kakhovka damn and angles down in a south south west direction but that will also put a lot of Crimea in Himars range. Edit - Also in the last 24 hours I see Ukraine shot down another SU-25 around Avdiivka, I would love to know what they shot it down with.

Avdiivka is really a gift for Ukraine. Russia are throwing massive forces at it for political rather than strategic reasons, Putin wants to show progress before announcing his re-election bid. It's a good chance to inflict damage on the Russian forces. I'm not sure how easy it will be for Ukraine to hold the flanks, Russia has shown gradual progress in cutting off the roads and getting into the small town town just north of the mine. Ukraine is definitely getting good value from their artillery and drones in this defense though. Trying to establish a foothold across the Dnipro is just as dangerous for Ukrainians as it is the Russians. It would make sense for Russia to defend a bit deeper so long as they can still target any bridge that is built/repaired. Ukraine has higher elevation on the right bank of the river so has an even bigger advantage in the accuracy and range of their artillery. The Russians want to be out of range of regular howitzers and Ukraine still can't commit too many forces at the moment because they can't do anything about Russia's aviation. Their only defense at the moment is to have their forces so sparse that the glide bombs don't do too much damage. Ukraine also can't retreat in good order so it is very dangerous to over commit. The Russians probably are constructing defenses further south and east but static defenses have to be very extensive or you can just go around them.

If Ukraine was a jungle that might work with extreme loss of life. But it's not. The vast majority of the terrain Russia still holds is open fields and even Russian artillery couldn't miss a mass infantry charge. Machine guns and tanks do not help either.