Denam_Pavel

He still has his tenure as Hand of the King for most of war ahead of him.

18 minutes ago, IFR said:

We know from the story that is written that attempts are made on their lives by the Greens in the path of civil war. Even without the aid of knowing the future narrative, this seems all but inevitable, especially with Baela, since she's daughter to the Greens' rival (Daemon) and a dragon rider, which of course makes her a threat.

We can only speculate on how things would occur if Rhaenys had ended the Greens. You speculate that this is a perilous decision that would haunt Rhaenys, and presumably extend to her kin, but this is a meta narrative commentary, and I don't think it's a reasonable estimate that such a deed performed by Rhaenys would have consequences that extend to her grandchildren - either from a meta narrative viewpoint, or in the minds of the people of the realm. As opposed to the Red Wedding, which was a conspiracy of the entire Frey household this would have been an individual act by Rhaenys, so who can say that the consequences would extend beyond her?

It is, again, speculation about a fantasy world.

A scenario where multiple factions have nukes is entirely different than a scenario where only one faction has nukes. You hypothesize that the world would not respond with nukes if the US employed nukes against Iraq. I agree. But the manner in how the world responds would be very different with other countries possessing nukes than if they didn't, even if nukes aren't used in their response.

Which is why I don't think the scenarios are comparable. Even the bombing of Japan is only loosely comparable because attitudes of WW2 and this show are so dramatically different. It would be more like giving Henry VIII nukes. Would he risk outraging the world by nuking other countries and going on a bloody path of conquest and forcing all to submit to him? I wouldn't doubt it.

She already ought to have a blackened reputation. She butchered many innocent people with her dragon - possibly dozens, maybe hundreds. The Greens have control, there wouldn't be a favorable spin here.

By destroying the Greens, the Blacks would have control and the narrative would be in their hands. They would have absolute dominance, and power to quell opposition.

But anyway, this is once again speculating on a fantasy world. I doubt we're going to find agreement here.

And really, all of this is a detour conversation when the main issue is that Rhaenys shouldn't have burst into the room in the first place. That is the truly objectionable part of all of this. Whether she should have followed through and killed the Greens after that initial insane decision is a minor topic of speculation. It was certainly dramatically unsatisfying, whatever one's opinions of if it was good sense.

Dominance and power sure, but not control of the narrative, it's still a dragonride to Driftmark and dragonstone and a boatride back, longer if they have to assemble enough forces to seal off King's Landing. There's no stopping the story of the whole governing body being incinerated at the coronation from escaping King's Landing before Rhaenyra can do anything, nor the ravens with Otto's messages from making it too their intended destination before anything else arrives. As powerful as the dragons are, they are still a singular unwieldy creatures. They can't seal off cities or stop the spread of information.

7 hours ago, IFR said:

One country unilaterally controlling nukes I think would have a significant impact in any geopolitical structure. The US bombed Japan into submission quite readily. The geopolitics quickly changed when the Soviets developed nukes only a few years later.

People can account for Rhaenys' behavior as one of morality, but I cannot see it as a decision of good sense.

If she toasted Alicent and company, she could return to the Blacks. I very much doubt that Daemon or Rhaenyra would care at all that Rhaenys murdered family. Nobles might be angered, but Rhaenyra would assume power. If called for Rhaenys could be exiled for a few years. The Blacks would have enough supporters that with dragons everyone else would be cowed. Rhaenys granddaughters could then be married to the Strong children, and Rhaenys legacy would be secured. Rhaenyra and Daemon could then work to stifle any discontent, and at some point Rhaenys could return.

But this is a fictional world. It's hard enough to speculate on the real world, much less a fantasy one. But to me the clear and practical path would have been to kill Alicent and her family.

If? Rhaenys would have toasted the king, his siblings, the Queen Dowager, his children, the Hand, the Grandmaester, the high Septon and other septons, half the Kingsguard, hundreds of smallfolk. You think there's doubt that there would be calls for her exile for at least few years? Daemon was exiled for nothing by comparison. There is no way Rhaenyra wouldn't suffer demands to declare Rhaenys a monster and an enemy of the realm for the rest of her reign. Rhaenys would be remembered as the equivalent to Maegor the Cruel and it is only a question if Rhaenyra is likewise remembered as a tyrant by defending her in any way.

Alicent's reaction to Butterwell's death gives the impression Cole is just Superman living in a world of cardboard, constantly accidentally killing people by touching them in only the most slightly forceful way.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

 

Aemond was a problem, but he was never in a position to actually challenge Rhaenyra's rule. He was just wreaking havoc. They could have left him out there ravaging the countryside for years and it wouldn't have changed the political landscape. People would have been angry at Rhaenyra for not dealing with him, to be sure, but they wouldn't have declared for/sided with the guy who had burned their castles, fields, villages, and towns. Aemond is undermining his own cause, and Aegon II's as much or more than he is undermining Rhaenyra there.

This kind of behavior also would make Aemond a complete outcast in civilized society. What one would expect to happen to him if he continued this kind of thing is to end up like Septon Murmison or Quenton Hightower - being dragged out and ripped to pieces by an angry crowd. He would lose both respect and admiration from the lords and the smallfolk alike, turning it into fear and hatred.

The way to kill Aemond could have been surprisingly easy. Just have Corlys put a bounty of 100,000 gold dragons on his head. He was the richest man in the Realm, he could afford that. Somebody would slay him then, dragon or not. He was pretty much alone most of the time.

 

I don't know what makes you say this means he is not in a position to challenge Rhaenyra's rule. Vhagar can easily turn the Red Keep into a second, much smaller Harrenhal. It's more then big enough for that now. Aemond is never gonna surrender and could easily end up killing his daughters and his son if Daemon refused to deal with him.

7 hours ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

Why wasn’t Luke fostered with Corlys at Driftmark? He should have been, considering that was to be his seat.

The heir to a house being fostered in the house of their liegelord, in this case Dragonstone, isn't that unusual. Vaemond's assertion that growing up in a place as being important to the succession is kinda silly.

Viserys confused Alicent and Aemma this episode, Daemon comments that how cruel the gods have been to Viserys. He's pretty much dying however slowly. Giving the job to someone newer and younger and seeing if they are good at the job may not be something Viserys sees himself capable of at this point. Going back to a known capable administrator makes sense to me.

6 hours ago, Caligula_K3 said:

I think as the season goes on, and I enjoy parts of every episode but get less and less enthused about the show as a whole, I'm starting to realize why it's not working for me.

Forget Game of Thrones. This show should be HBO's Rome... with Dragons! That show also had to deal with plenty of time skips. That show was also about civil war between two sides that ultimately had a lot of morally grey and often unsympathetic characters. And it was also an adaption of an incredibly complex historical period with tons of people involved in events (well, this time a real historical period with real people.)

But Rome was fun! It got you invested in those characters because they had life and charm and different values that you could partially sympathize with and which led to all sorts of interesting conflicts at a macro and micro level. And it prioritized certain characters over the course of those time skips, which sure, meant leaving many others out of the historical record, but also meant that you had consistent and elaborate character arcs. Finally, Rome had stakes: it had character stakes, because you cared about them, despite their flaws, and it also had stakes in that you saw what the civil war meant for people at all levels of society.

I think, ultimately, that's what this show needs: a focus on characters, a variety in tone, and stakes. Right now, four characters get focus, and everyone else is ancillary to the plot. The tone is consistently dour, making it hard to get attached to anyone, because they also don't stand for anything. And the stakes haven't evolved much beyond "should person A or B be ruler?"

Basically, to cut all my bullshit short, this show needs a Titus Pullo and Marc Antony and Atia to be in there, and to get as much development and attentions as its Caesar and Pompey.

This is my thinking exactly, this show needs a Titus Pullo/Bronn/Jaqen. Just a really amicable character that can go around and do Daemon's killing him for him. Harwin, Laenor, Rhea, Blood and Cheese, fix these issues with one solution.

5 minutes ago, The Grey Wolf Strikes Back said:

@butterweedstrover

Aemond was a child the same as the rest of them. Furthermore, the first blow was struck by Rhaenyra and Daemon's kids. On top of that, they drew a knife and used it AFTER blinding Aemond with sand, at which point he wasn't a threat. Not to mention the fact all Aemond had to hand was a rock and, if I recall the scene correctly, he spends more time holding it up threateningly than actually using it. Hell, at one point, he was flat on the ground, surrounded, and getting pummeled!

Yes, Aemond said some unwise things but from my perspective the Blacks kids were quite clearly more in the wrong there than him.

Especially, when you consider the fact that Rhaena isn't automatically entitled to Vhagar just because her mother rode it. Heck, if you look at the actual dialogue, Aemond in the beginning is a bit smug but he's hardly being rude when he says that Vhagar has a new rider and that if Rhaena wanted her that badly she shouldn't have waited.

Honestly, the idea that Aemond is in the wrong for hitting a girl AFTER said girl attacks him (along with her sister and two of her cousins!) strikes me as emblematic of everything wrong with the "can't hit a girl" mentality.

Now, if you said that, as the eldest, Aemond had a responsibility to de-esscalate the situation, then you might have a point but the fact of the matter is he was still a child regardless and the Blacks kids conducted themselves in a similarly bad, if not worse, manner.

"Your cousins can find you a pig to ride, it would suit you" is definitely rude. When he was holding up the rock threateningly he was also strangling a boy much young then he and saying "you will die screaming just like your father did." Aemond is the one where all the death threats are coming from.

15 minutes ago, Rockroi said:

You use this phrase a lot.  I added no "headcanon"; Rheanyra  is culpable in this for not having natural children.  She tried?  Bad news- you have to try (*cough*) harder.  

Its almost as if she has an "obligation" and that she is not living up to it, but instead finds the thinnest of pretexts to avoid it... like exactly what Alicent is complaining about... right?  In other words... Alicent is on to something. 

Maegor took 12 wives in an effort to get a trueborn son, I guess his failure is in not trying hard enough either.

2 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

I never thought that made sense, because the summers are also longer, so they have more time to grow crops and harvest.

Not every harvest goes well, and things can go wrong with food storage. That winter is coming on the other hand is certain.

8 minutes ago, C.T. Phipps said:

Which relates to the larger point that there's no concept of genetics so what exactly is the argument here? A culture that has no knowledge of genetics is going to point at the fact the children don't look like Laenor and take that as evidence? Viserys story is actually accurate to RL genetics and recessive genes.

And for 99.99 of all nobles, they're never going to see Laenor or Harwin (even less now) let alone their ancestors.

So it's a exceptionally weak argument.

 

I should stress, the Valyrians, both houses that these kids allegedly stem from, have been inbreeding for centuries exactly because the world they live in values the visual traits the Strong boys lack. And they've had plenty success accomplishing in doing so. They at least think they have some idea of how it works. 

And that is not true. Jaehaerys went on tons of processions throughout the realm, so did Viserys and Rhaenyra, the lords of the realm have been called to Harrenhal for great councils in their lifetimes and to KL to swear fealty to Rhaenyra. The nobles know what Valyrian royals looks like, what Rhaenyra the heir looks like, what Laenor, Laena and Rhaenys, Viserys' past rivals for the throne look like and Corlys looks what the Strongs, their hosts at Harrenhal look like. They've met them anyway. When Aegon shrugs and says "Everyone knows, just look at them." there's no indication he is lying.

7 minutes ago, C.T. Phipps said:

Because they look nothing like her and yet somehow she's not accused of their mother being someone else.

Because there were witnesses for the birth. Also, she's not claiming they are her immaculate conception. Human generally have two parents and get their genes from those two parents, some more apparant then others. When it's neither of them, nor their grandparents, three times in a row, and those boys are heirs to Driftmark, the richest seat in the realm, Dragonstone the only place where dragons are found beside KL and the Iron Throne of the Seven Kingdoms in King's Landing then there's a pretty tough pill to swallow for those further down the succession, let's be real.

23 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

It is. People seem to forget what the concept of bastardy is - it is a slur for children born out of wedlock, or more specifically, for the child of a woman who is unmarried. That is also the case in Westeros since the mock names bestowed on noble bastards are *never* given to children born in wedlock, never mind how they look or how exceedingly unlikely it is that they were fathered by their legal father (e.g. the Footly boy born post-Tumbleton, Elaena's Viserys 'Plumm').

Children born in wedlock may in fact be the mailman's or the milkman's child ... but that doesn't make them bastards, it makes them merely not the biological child of their legal father. Marriage is the legal contract ensuring that a wife's children are the children of their husband.

Now, it is imaginable that a royal or noble father gets doubt about the parentage of his son or daughter, accuses his wife of adultery, and subsequently get a ruling (or rules himself if he were the king) that his children were, in fact, illegtimate. But we never actually see that happening, although it may have happened if Ned had told Robert what Cersei told him about the parentage of his children.

The only thing resembling something like that is Lucamore's children being declared bastards after he is sent to the Wall. But that's because the king and queen ruled that the marriages were never valid, not because another man fathered those children on Lucamore's wife.

This does not follow with what we hear about the concept of first night. The progeny of those such nights are called bastards and are issued from married women. Alysanne only banned the practice a few decades before these events and not entirely successfully.

28 minutes ago, frenin said:

Sure they did and that's why no one suspected a thing for 13 years.

Once they start investigating and concluding it's not really possible for a Baratheon to have Lannister looking kids, especially if Jon Arryn just like Varys is tracking down Robert's bastards in the city and realizing he's just fathering clones of him. Saying that he doesn't have conclusive evidence is just blatantly untrue.

There's nothing Cersei can use as excuse to save herself from Robert, Rhaenyra did have that, even if admittedly is flimsy, that's also the reason of the treatment each children receives. There's also the fact that the children were acknowledged by Laenor even after the rumours of bastardry arose, had Robert heard about thte bastardry and still decided to claim the children as his, well tough luck Stannis.

I mean it's surely possible. Tywin's family don't look like Baratheons now, despite evidently having several Baratheons in their family tree (in book 1 anyway). It trumps them but evidently doesn't extinquish blonde, green eyed genes forever. Robert obviously thinks he fathered the kids, so clearly he remembers encounters with Cersei that corrospond with her pregnancies well enough. Cersei was at least in bedchambers with Robert at the right time, Jon Arryn can't attest to what didn't happen, even Varys' birds would be hardpressed to prove that stuff. Cersei has Robert's own experience to throw against these accusations. Rhaenyra wasn't sleeping with Laenor but unwilling to bear his children, he just wasn't there sleeping with her, period. There's gotta be a lot more physical evidence against Rhaenyra/Laenor then Cersei.

1 minute ago, frenin said:

No, but the Rhaeny's feats, as Aemma's, gives people the liberty to dismiss the argument, that is how people like Eustace dismiss it when they are not particularly pro Rhaenyra.

Which is the point, the kids were def bastards but there's enough wiggle room, so the only argument of the bastardry is that they do not look like the parents, which although is fair in this case it's a bad bad argument overall. No wonder it was dismissed and most people didn't actually care about the paternity.

Martin had Laenor live in a different castle from Rhaenyra to make it incredibly obvious for the readers, but in universe, Laenor and Rhaenyra living separately is not impediment from the having sex every once in a good while.

Cersei and Robert actually did have sex every once in while. And Robert wouldn't have a whole bunch of bastards from whores in the first place if birth control was perfect in this world. Jon Arryn having conclusive proof that Stannis lacks is just blatantly untrue. Ned made sure the only real way this world has means to at severe cost to himself: asking the mother, Varys wasn't gonna do anything, Jon was gonna kill those kids based on his own broad judgement.

12 minutes ago, C.T. Phipps said:

I mean, Rhaenyra's hair is absolutely out of canon as is Aemma's. But there's no reason that Alicent's children should look the way they do.

They're proof positive her argument is nonsense.

 

Alicent's children look like their father. Why is that a problem?

1 minute ago, frenin said:

Laenor is Velaryon-Baratheon. Rhaenys herself was black of hair, in the show she isn't which makes the kids not having blonde hair a deal breaker, so there's enough wiggle room for people to raise the concern and that concern being dismissed. No such thing occured with Robert.

 

Eh, whether Martin is going to flesh those marriages or not is another matter. He wrote on purpose to make a point, the children couldn't be Robert's.

 

That is evidence, Alicent and Stannis words are just rumours, treasonous rumours at that.

Rhaenys has hair black as coal, like any Baratheon, yes. the boys do not however have Baratheon traits, nor Valyrian, not their eyes, not their hair, not their nose. Rhaenys is no way a precedent for where they get these traits from. Martin had Laenor live in a different castle from Rhaenyra too, he did that purpose to make a point as well.

15 minutes ago, frenin said:

Varys and Jon Arryn had the evidence of children came out all looking like him and the fact that thereh had been several Baratheon-Lannister matches in the past and all the kids looked Baratheon.

It's a concrete proof? Not really, but it's solid enough to conclude the children are not Robert's and it's solid enough to convince Robert, and the readers.

But it went beyond "this three particular kids just don't look like you". Like Stannis or Alicent.

There have been a LOT more Velaryon and Targaryan matches then Lannister and Baratheon. Both of them coming from interbred Valyrian lines, they've looked as consistent as anything. In fact, barely any of the examples Ned found actually seem to exist in canon, the Baratheons haven't been in Westeros that long and GRRM has done nothing to integrate the idea that there have been several Baratheon-Lannisters marriages in that time when fleshing out the history. Leana, Daemon and Rhaenyra's other kids all look Valyrian, just the ones whose father is gay don't look like their father but rather their mother's sworn sword. 

The temperament of the King in question is the only real distinction.

5 minutes ago, frenin said:

Tbf, no, Stannis does not any proof.

 

 

Both Varys and Jon Arryn did have conclusive evidence about Robert not being the father, Stannis had none. 

Children not looking like the parents is no proof of bastardry, on that much Viserys is right. A couple like Laenor and Rhaenyra can perfectly have white kids, it's not even unlikely, what gives the barstardry away is the hair, much like Cersei's children. But that they look nothing alike the parent is not very indicative of much.

Varys and Jon Arryn didn't have any proof. Ned had a form of proof for himself, in Cersei telling him what the deal is to his face. The others just decided for themselves that the way things looked was enough to be certain about it.

1 minute ago, SeanF said:

He feels obliged to tell Robert.  It would still be Robert’s decision whether or not to proclaim them as bastards.

 

And then he doesn't, and Robert dies and Ned still feels it is his business.

1 minute ago, SeanF said:

If a father acknowledges the children as his, that’s the end of the matter.

Robert would have been so enraged at being made a cuckold, he’d have killed Cersei’s children.  Laenor was unbothered.

Robert and Cersei definitely have had sex. Stannis cannot give an account of when which act of adultery with Jaime happened. The proof that his claim to the throne over all three kids stems from is in their features and the Baratheon seed being so strong. Ned never tells Robert, who claims Joffrey as his heir. But Ned still feels he as Regent, Hand of King and Protector has authority to declare Joffrey a bastard.

6 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

But unlike Stannis, Alicent has no proof.

Oh come on. If Alicent doesn't have any proof then neither does Stannis. Joffrey, Tommen en Myrcella just look like the person everyone including Stannis agrees is their mother. The Strong boys don't like their mother, any of their grandparents, nearly none of their greatparents if not none at all and don't even a share ethnicity with their father anymore. You really have to personally want them to be Leanor's to believe it like Viserys. If Alicent doesn't have leg to stand on then it is insane that Jon, Ned and Stannis ever even bothered.

11 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

There is.

Because the only ones who really harp on and on about it are the people who have ulterior motives: Alicent, Otto and the Velaryon cousins. It was clearly just another tool Alicent and Otto tried to use in their quest to undermine and disinherit Rhaenyra and the Velaryon cousins only wanted Driftmark for themselves...the craziest thing about it is that the Velaryons were themselves grasping at straws and were only repeating the rumors that the Hightower queen and her father had started...which, again, circles back around to the Hightower plot to get rid of Rhaenyra.

 

In the end, GRRM still made it so that four out of Ned's five children don't look anything like him. And now that R+L=J has been confirmed, the same goes for Rhaegar. Two out of his three children look nothing like him. And if Young Griff is to be believed as the son of Rhaegar, then that turns Rhaegar's one out of three into zero out of three. Because Young Griff does not look like Rhaegar. You want to know who did look like Rhaegar? His brother and sister.

The Starks do look like their other parent however. And Griff still has his hair and eyes from the Valyrian side of the family, his eyes just aren't the exact shade Rhaegar's was. The Strong boys look like someone altogether not known to be their blood. They don't look Baratheon either. They might all three of them take after their Arryn greatgrandfather, traits that completely skipped Aemma and Rhaenyra, against every other family tree they stem from going back to many generations of inbreeding of Valyrian traits that's the only hope in the books.

It's possible but it's hardly crazy ang grasping at straws to just think they more likely take after their own father. 

1 minute ago, Ran said:

I don't think that's it at all. I think basically everyone knows, but if the king doesn't see it, they're not going to be the ones to try and break it to him.

Yeah, Alicent and the Kingsguard are permanent, everyone else can be dismissed like Otto or Harwin at any time.