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Aemond's Eye

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  1. Joffrey still inherits and Cersei still destroys the king's decree, with Ned accused of treason still and taking advantage of Robert by having him sign the decree whilst he was under the influence of milk of the poppy. The only way things play out differently is if Ned decides not to give Cersei a heads up and arrests her, places her children in his custody and sends word to Robert on his hunt. Telling Robert on his deathbed won't change anything.
  2. It was definitely foolish, but it wasn't pure selfishness. It's just as selfish to bed her, possibly impregnate her, and leave her. He's torn between dishonoring her or one of his bannermen. Damned either way due to his sense of morality. The smart thing for him to have done would have been to marry one of Walder's daughters when he needed to cross The Twins, not send Theon to the Iron Islands and never end up in Jeyne's bed in the first place. But we lose a good chunk of the story if he's not a bit daft in that respect!
  3. There's zero chance Clegane rapes and murders a Princess of Dorne if Tywin said she's not to be harmed. There's an unspoken understanding that Elia will be killed, though Tywin may have been surprised by the brutality of it. Not giving Clegane the express order to kill her shields Tywin from it, though due to the way his men handled the assassinations of Elia & Aegon and Rhaenys, the Lannisters have their maesters speculate that Aerys was behind it. I think it's naive to take Tywin at his word that Elia's death was unnecessary. He couldn't leave her to return to Dorne and rally her brothers to seek vengeance. And I don't think Oberyn is entirely wrong in thinking her death may have been, in part, because Tywin saw her marriage to Rhaegar as a slight to his house (due to having planned for Cersei to marry him). He may have considered it unfortunate but if he had considered it unnecessary he would have said as much to Clegane, and she would have been left unharmed. Physically, at least.
  4. There's also a possibility he sees Nymeria as a potential ally. Thanks to Kevan's death, the Lannister and Tyrell factions at court are going to be in a cold war of sorts. Sometimes the enemy of your enemy is your friend, and both Martell and Tyrell were Targeryen loyalists during Robert's Rebellion. Having said that, I could also see Mace wanting to wed Margaery to (f)Aegon. The winds are clearly turning against the Lannisters, and he's got an army to offer (f)Aegon as part of the bargain. Any alliance between (f)Aegon and the Martells would throw a wrench into that, obviously, as well as any possible short term alliance at court between Mace and Nymeria.
  5. Were Willas and Oberyn not on friendly terms despite the accident that crippled the former? Under normal circumstances I could understand some residual resentment still being passed onto Oberyn's daughter, but I think the Martells may have more pressing concerns than holding that particular grudge. Especially given Oberyn's dead now anyway.
  6. And in Robb's case it was an ambush in which he wasn't in armour or had any weapons. There was no reason for his army outside the castle to be ready for a fight too - they were there to celebrate a wedding and the Freys seemingly reconciling with their king. Plus history isn't short of great generals and military men who were killed by an ambush when they least suspected it.
  7. The Red Wedding is inspired by actual historical events, so it's not unrealistic at all that Robb wouldn't see this betrayal coming and being caught unawares. Add to that, guest right is a big deal in Westeros and it's understandable that Robb doesn't expect Walder Frey to dishonour it. Naive given the slight to House Frey when Robb married Jeyne, yes, but understandable.
  8. I like Tyene, but I can't see things going well for her in King's Landing. I don't see her being taken in by the High Sparrow's act, but I don't see him being fooled by hers either.
  9. Speaking of hypocrisy, he rapes a sex slave because she finds him repulsive to look at, yet he himself finds Penny ugly because she's a dwarf.
  10. Or he just really likes the fantasy of being the hero rather than actually caring about redemption.
  11. In fairness, that's not exactly helped by being married to a woman he's neither attracted to nor whose company he enjoys. By the time of his marriage he already thinks his elder brother enjoys slighting him, and being married to the niece of a Reach lord probably is seen by him as another slight, given he lived through the siege of Storm's End. He's not an outright misogynist nor hates women - by medieval standards at least, which ASOIAF is modelled after - and makes it clear he expects his bannermen to fight for his daughter's rights should he die in battle. Stannis married to someone who could pierce through the armour he's built up around himself since childhood rather than Selyse could very much change the man he is by the time of ASOIAF. Not that I have any particular suggestions, as we don't really meet many women ages with Stannis that aren't already married.
  12. I don't think Tywin is necessarily lying about not ordering her rape and murder, but I also doubt she'd have been harmed if he'd expressly forbidden it. And if he truly believed her death was unnecessary, or that her being spared may have somewhat sated House Martell's thirst for justice, she would have been. What happens to Elia if she's merely raped or just forced to see the bodies of her dead children? Short of sending her to the silent sisters - and I don't see Oberyn allowing that to happen or not coming to her rescue if it does - she'll only fuel Doran and Oberyn's thirst for vengeance as she's a witness to who actually carried out the murder of Rhaenys at the very least. The Lannisters have written the events of that night so it's unknown who killed Elia & Rhaenys, and even suggested Aerys may have ordered it himself. Her being alive puts the blame squarely on Tywin. (And he doesn't seem to want that particular death attributed to him openly.) I'm not arguing it was necessary to kill her as such, but I think once you kill either Elia or her children you've pretty much guaranteed the emnity of House Martell. I think it's "in for a penny, in for a pound" at that point.
  13. Jaime would still have killed Aerys, as he'd have been plotting to destroy the city using wildfire regardless of whether it was Ned or Tywin arriving. Ned might not have instructed his men to ravage the city, but there's no such thing as a peaceful sacking of a city, and it would still have been carnage. The difference for Jaime is he'd have been thrown into the black cells by Ned for regicide if Tywin wasn't there to protect him. At that point I don't think even a proposed marriage to Cersei can allow Jaime to remain in the Kingsguard. Tywin either somehow negotiates Jaime's pardon and gets his heir back, or Jon Arryn convinces Robert to send Jaime to The Wall. If Ned reaches King's Landing before Tyson, Elia and her children are spared. They'd have been taken into Ned's protection if he had any reason to suspect Robert would have done them harm, though I don't think Robert actually would have tried to execute them. He'd have bellowed about it, but hes not yet the embittered man we meet in Game of Thrones. But if there was talk about them being executed then it's something I imagine they quarrel about - they did quarrel about what actually happened to Elia & her children after all - but Jon Arryn would also be unlikely to advocate killing children. Elia would return to Dorne, though her children may have been fostered with Robert's allies similar to how Theon Greyjoy was after Balon's failed rebellion. The relationship between Ned and Robert is somewhat strained by the opening of ASOIAF, though they still have great affection for one another. Given Elia and her children likely aren't going to be slaughtered, I don't think Ned storms out of King's Landing in quite the same fashion. The biggest domino effect is on House Targaryen. Do the loyalists still flee with Aerys's surviving children to Essos if their nephew and niece haven't been so brutally murdered? I think they probably do, though there's always a chance that changes things. Even if Viserys and Daenerys still end up in Essos with Ser Willem Darry, Targaryen loyalists are less likely to withhold any sort of aid. One of the biggest deterrents was what happened to Rhaegar's wife & children, and the brutality of it. It wasn't just Tywin ingratiating himself to Robert - it was a message to any of the loyalists who may otherwise have considered raising their banners for Viserys. If Tywin, and by association Robert, could so brutality dispatch royalty, what would they do to those who still openly opposed them? With that removed and four potential Targaryen heirs around, and with ties to Dorne, there's definitely potential for a Targaryen restoration. On the other hand, Elia isn't brutally raped and murdered. Her children are alive and, presumably, treated well by whichever lord has been entrusted with them. Do Doran and Oberyn have any appetite for revenge in this scenario, and even if so would they risk it knowing her children are essentially hostages in case of such an uprising? What about Jon Snow? The murder of Elia's children is likely the reason Ned keeps his parentage secret, but I don't see that changing even if they're alive. Ned would likely feel guilty over depriving Jon of ever knowing them, but he'd still keep his promise and Jon would still be raised as his bastard.
  14. I don't get quite that part. He sees through Pycelle's act as he's known him for decades and Pycelle is his puppet - it's not a case of him seeing through it so much as the act he puts on is to help him serve House Lannister.
  15. http://winteriscoming.net/2014/05/06/david-benioff-dan-weiss-pact-read-online-comments/http://insidetv.ew.com/2014/05/04/game-of-thrones-ignore-internet/
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