Leonardo Abreu

On 8/29/2023 at 4:12 AM, SeanBeanedMeUp said:

If Aerys put that many caches, Jaime knows what that means. And he should've done more about it than simply kill the king.

Also as for oaths Jaime was most likely too scared to break another part of the oath after the king-killing.

He did not simply kill the king, it is mentioned he did after track down and murdered some other pyromancers besides the one whatshisname that was the Hand. As the guild years later claim to Tyrion that they “recently” found the caches, maybe the ones Jaime killed were the only ones that knew the exact locations and did not tell even at swordpoint. Or maybe they told of one or two other caches that Jaime did take care of but just did not think about yet in his POVs.

I don’t think this is a problem with the Kingsguard’s vow, but rather that nobody is alowed to strike the royals, vow or no vow. That was the crime of Dunk against Aerion, of Arya against Joffrey, and the argument Ned uses to convince Robert to not fight in the melee.

Despite the different scenarios, I like to think of Robert as a parallel to Conan, if Conan instead of eventually becoming a good ruler for Aquilonia, had given in to whoring and drinking as would be expected of him.

Aside from the obvious Stannis and Dolourous Edd lines, the one which stands out is when Jaime is told he doesn’t know what honor is and just thinks “a horse”.

10 hours ago, LongRider said:

This has made me curious, why Mance before the grave openings?

So the graves are not opened and all those shades are not let loose on the world.

Littlefinger and Varys.

For third, if by the start of the series is before the “opening of half a hundred graves” I would say to kill Mance.

If it is not soon enough to stop it, then kill Joffrey.

The theory mostly arises in a try to explain the support they had given to Renly, because it seems like too risky a move otherwise.

the 1st Blackfyre rebellion divided the realm, but were based on the assumptions of Daemon worthiness and having the blade AND the rumors of Daeron II being ilegitimate. Other BF rebellions were more contained on the number of Houses involved.

Robert’s rebellion divided the realm, but was fired up mostly on the arbitrary execution of a great lord and his heir, which was the breaking point of years of erratic government.

Balon’s rebellion should have thaught what happens when someone tries to crown themselves on a whim.

But Renly’s claim was not based on Joffrey’s bastardy (and Renly makes it clear in the parlay with Stannis), it was open rebellion against the supposed legitimate ruler because… Renly was big and handsome and Loras vouched for him? That was too much of a gamble even for an oportunistic house. They had too much to lose.

4 minutes ago, James Steller said:

But it wasn’t necessary. They have the biggest army, they suffered the least amount of casualties in the war (besides the Lannisters), the Redwyne fleet was unaffected by the storms which sunk the Royal Fleet, they are the bread basket of Westeros, and they have two children to fight for and then be regents for. If ever there was a time to go all out against Robert and Co., that was the time. Tywin wouldn’t be stupid enough to lose everything in a war with them, Robert and the others would have been overwhelmed and defeated, their surviving relatives would have been demoralised, and the Tyrells would have been more powerful than ever before. 

Morale was low after the Trident, and Mace surrendered to Ned in Storm’s End. Maybe this theory/plot is an aftethought to salvage the situation after this.

10 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

So they had advance knowledge of the Shadowbaby? Because otherwise Renly would by a pretty significant margin have made the most effective king of any of the 5K. Including long-term. No Shadowbaby is good for pretty much everyone but Lannisters. And readers/publishers, because it would have really been a short book. 

No, in this theory they would win against Stannis that day, then topple Joffrey and subdue or, perhaps, reintegrate the North peacefully.

Then they would bid their time, consolidate power and remove Renly, creating a power vaccum to be eventually filled with either Viserys or Aegon.

38 minutes ago, James Steller said:

The Reach did fold rather easily, though. If they were going to be diehard loyalists they would have just swept in with their army and wiped out the survivors of Robert’s Rebellion. Daenerys and Viserys were still alive and the Reach always outnumbered the rebels, even before their casualties in the rebellion. It would have been easy for the Reach to capture Ned when he arrived and besiege Robert in King’s Landing while taking the surviving Targs into their custody.

This was a tactical retreat. They realized it would be no good fighting for a 8 year old boy, they made peace and plotted in the shadows (just like the Martells were doing) for the future.

Could the Tyrells be in secret working towards a Targ friendly agenda, maybe even being in league with Varys (being Aegon true or not)?

Premises:

• House Tyrell owes all its status to the Targaryen conquerors
• They stood loyal through all other rebellions in the past

But the issue I’ve been thinking is their support to Renly’s claim. They weren’t questioning Joffrey’s legitimacy (that came before Stannis’ letter), they had no apparent cause of discontent (unlike Robb or on some way, Balon). They were simply backing up a rebel claimant against the, to public knowledge, true heir and, by Renly’s admission, supported mainly by military strength - effectively a conquest.

This is a great risk being taken by a previously pro-estabilishment house, and involving all their vassals who also seemed loyalists in the padt, just on the “will put a Tyrell descendant (through the female line) on the throne in the distant future” aim. Unless, here comes the crackpot, they follow on the opportunity to topple the official Baratheon dinasty, and back up a claimant who they know is just a “knight of summer” that they could easily remove later when the time for a Targaryen return comes? Olenna sure showed being able and willing to remove an undesirable monarch. They probably bet on Renly not producing an heir at all, and maybe plan to offer Margaery to Aegon/fAegon (or Viserys?) once Renly is no more (as it happened to Joffrey and Tommen), if Varys is involved. Maybe the plot of making Robert fall for Margaery was to be the sparkle for the realm’s destabilization Varys aimed for, before the whole other Tyrion kidnapping happened by pure chance.

He is, and he will face the Great Other once he reveals his secret identity.

Which I have found: the Great Other is secretly in southern Westeros this whole time and is Taena’s husband.

I figured it out by seeing his name on the  page and folding it like a Mad Magazine. Thus O-rton Merrywea-THER becomes OTHER. It all fits, the Myrish Swamp, everything. 

10 hours ago, Alden Rothack said:

its the only major castle on the river and only known crossing for about four hundred miles, any trade going to the Vale has to go through the twins and any trade going further south has to go through either the twins or the ruby ford near harroway, saltpans and harrenhal.

Trade to the Vale from where? Seagard? The Ironborn? From anywhere else south of the Blue Fork the Ruby Ford is much more viable.

Again not saying the bridge is not useful, doubly so in times of war, but not that useful for the Freys to get THAT rich and powerful. Not when compared to houses controlling more trade-significantly placed hubs.

I have always wondered quite the opposite. How did they get so powerful by building a bridge that to me is mostly used by Jason Mallister to take a holiday on the Narrow Sea beaches?

It was important for Robb to attack the Riverrun besiegers, sure, but on day to day? I don’t see a major trade route passing there to justify their status.

I have played both computer games, the one with the Night Watch ranger and the Red Priest, and the kind of 4x one.

Both were fun, the story of the RPG one was nice, being connected to the ASOIAF plot without much interference. And the 4x was interesting in revisiting historical battles. Pity they don’t saw much development and polishing with more content after.

No sympathy for most of the Slaver’s Bay characters, even the ones that seem to have turned to Daenerys.

The Florents around Stannis as well, including the queen.

19 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

But not Whoresbane Umber, right?  That's still the coolest name ever.

You do mean all this stuff after ADWD, right?  Post text?  I'm fine with the dagger being what it is in ASOIAF.  It's all this other crazy meaning it has in other mediums that drives me nuts.  

Whoresbane is fine :-)

About the dagger I don’t like the amount of plot contrivances around it:

- a 12 year old highborne manages to find a hired killer willing to kill a Lord Paramount son while in said Lord’s castle, without nobody finding out

- this resorceful assassin arranges a fire in the library, but had no weapon of his himself, the prince had to arrange for him

- the catspaw was honorable enough to follow through with the contract. With the royal party gone, he could have run away with his silver and his new dagger to a week of fun in White Harbor brothels

- Expert masterplanner Littlefinger risks everything lying about the dagger right in front of Varys. The Spider wouldn’t contradict him on the spot of course, but surely would have him literally by the balls from them on. What is worse, he could just have told the truth and it would still achieve the same effect of raising suspicion of the Starks against the Lannisters.

- if not for a very low probability encounter on the inn, Tyrion would have returned to KL, and Ned would probably confront him about the dagger, Tyrion would deny, and Ned being a bit more cool headed would listen.

On 5/26/2023 at 12:31 PM, Lady Stonehearts Simp said:

You take that back!  The Lads are awesome

No problem with the characters, just think the names are an unecessary distraction. Same thing with Dickon Manwoody that I always read his name as the great friend of Pilatus, Biggus Dickus.

To add another desirable change, almost everything about the valyrian steel dagger.

Other recommendation tbat is not sililar to ASOIAF but good nonetheless would be something by Stephen Pressfield. Gates of Fire would be the first choice, but the Alexandrian Afghanistan one and even the World War 2 are very good.

No similar, much simpler writing, but 100% guaranteed to entertain, pick something by Bernard Cornwell

EDIT: ninja’ed

The fat pinky mast

EDIT: Seriously know, I am not a fan of some of the things detailed in the World of Ice and Fire about far away lands and cultures. When they appear in the novels they are mentioned in passing and keep an air of mystery. When things like Kayakayanaya or the Five Forts and such are explained in more detail they look like things from a bad RPG sourcebook.

EDIT2: the muppet Tullys

I agree to these reasons, but I ask why it hasn’t even been considered, and discussed these reasons and eventually dismissed. They were evaluating between executing him (losing the Kartasrk men loyalty in the process, with no real effect in satisfying the Lannisters, as the Blackfish noted) or keeping him hostage, or pardoning (both options that would be much more lenient in the treason count). Of course, maybe only Robb would think to suggest that (Edmure, Blackfish and Cat being southrons), but we have precedent to taking the black being at least considered as punishment for treason (as they expected would happen with Ned).

As of being rescued on the way, I would think if it come to him having been offered to the black, if he accepted he as a northman Rickard would honor it and not atempt to escape.

Is there any consideration on why Robb had not even thought of the option of making Rickard Karstark take the black instead of executing him? The only options discussed in the meeting were death or pardon, while perhaps the NW would be a nice solution.

I believe the Dance, the Blackfyre rebellions, the Ninepenny Kings War, Robert’s and Greyjoy’s rebellions thinned a lot of noble houses’ rosters

EDIT: and the Great Spring Sickness and other plagues as well

A lot have been discussed about Jon’s future “ressurection” or not, but… unless my memory is mistaken we have not even seen him truly dead. He was ambushed and repeatedly stabbed, but what if he ends up surviving that? Aegon II have survived grievous wounds, as have been other characters (including other theories such as the Hound/Gravedigger).

Likewise, there are also a lot of discussion about why would Varys lie to Kevan or not (a key argument in the fAegon theory), but what if Varys does not intend to kill him and only wound enough (or maybe survive enough after to be able to talk about)? He is still alive as the birds converge on him and the chapter ends. Then this lie would serve to put more weight to Aegon’s claim, with a dying man reporting him as the real thing (being him fake or not)?

Robert survived for days after being eviscerated by a boar and carried to KL, it is not unfeasible to think Kevan or Jon may survive, at least for some time.

On a re-read right now.

it struck me odd that Salladhor Saan, when we fist meet him talking with Davos in a tavern, tells extremely acurate information about the happenings in KL. In previous chapters we see characters having a lot of trouble separating truth from hearsay, including in KL itself after Robert’s death. But Saan correctly knows that Tyrion is there by order of his father, that he deposed Janos Slynt and replaced him with Jacelyn Bywater. He explains that one of his merchant ships had been in the city, but the information seemed too precise to be just that. I don’t think Varys is supplying him with intel, but he must have some good source for that.

EDIT: A couple chapters later, at the harvest feast in Winterfell, Manderly also knows about Janos. Maybe under Tyrion handship news are more reliable :-)

EDIT 2: And more chapters forward, Craster “heard” that Gared lost his head? How on earth?