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Posts posted by Loge

  1. 2 hours ago, Toth said:

    Seems like you've already stated yourself why it's in Russia's short-term interest to use the dam as a roadblock. Also the mines shouldn't have enough of a punch to crack the dam like this. There is one video from 2022 circulating where the Russians on their retreat already tried to blow it up and it barely made a dent: 

    They blew up a small part of the dam, which was enough to prevent the Ukrainians from using it to cross the river. They didn't attempt to blow up the whole dam, though people feared they might. That they eventually did it therefore isn't really a surprise. 

    There is footage showing an explosion in the power station. It's possible that they didn't expect that to destroy the whole dam, but it looks like that is what happened. 


  2. 8 hours ago, Kalnestk Oblast said:

    That's not really accurate with modern airplanes and modern runways. It's true for the migs that the Ukrainians are using. F16s need significantly better runways and repairing it isn't like a pothole.

    The F-16 may have more delicate landing gear than the Soviet era fighter planes Ukraine currently operates, but filling a hole in a runway can't be particularly hard or expensive. Unlike, say, repairing the Kerch bridge.

  3. A preemptive strike against the US and its allies is a great way to start WWIII. Also doesn't really agree with the narrative that China is just taking back its territory. The US defending Taiwan is one thing. But China attacking US bases in Japan means all-out war. What is to keep the US from attacking the Chinese mainland?

  4. 5 hours ago, Clueless Northman said:

    So far, I still consider the Baltics deciding to ship some of their very own weaponry to Ukraine to be the craziest decision of the war (only topped by launching the initial invasion, obviously). Czechia or Romania doing it, I can understand, but countries who are the most at risk, are neighbours and pretty much targets of the bear, and whose only defenses are NATO membership and a modest amount of military stuff as deterrence and actual defense, that's really out there for me.

    Their main defence is the presence of troops from other NATO countries. Any attack on the Baltic states is an attack on all of NATO because the Russians would be fighting a multinational force.


  5. Putin wants the Soviet Union back and then some. (All of the former Warsaw Pact states). It's not about Russian populations, it's about being a world power. The Soviet Union was one, Russia in its current borders is not. With Ukraine, access to the Black Sea and through it to the Mediterranean is also a factor. That's why he wants Crimea so badly.

  6. Russia won't be able to replace all that soviet gear with modern weapon systems. If it were it would already have done it. But Putins wonder weapons have showed up on Red Square only, not on the battlefield. And the economy needed to support a large modern army just isn't there. Russia started this war in an attempt to become a world power again but it has only accelerated its decline. That seat on the UN security council and the nukes still give it some relevance but it reamsins to be seen how much longer they can hold on to those.

  7. 6 hours ago, Gorn said:

    Yeah, the problem with waiting until your army improves is that your opponent's army will do the same.

    Ukraine has a window of opportunity during the next month or so, before Russian Army and Wagner replenish their losses with a new wave of mobilization. I'd be very surprised if they don't take it.

    They have to wait for the ground to dry. It's way to muddy now.

  8. 20 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

    When the Russian tactic is to abuse and terrify the civilian population into capitulation rather than actually being effective against the opposing military that tactic makes a certian cold sense.  T-55/T-54’s suck against modern militaries but they’re still effective at terrifying captured or threatened populations.


    Both Russians and Ukrainians use tanks for indirect fire. It's an old soviet tactic. Same as tilting your helicopters nose up before shooting with unguided missiles. Increases the range, which means they won't be fired at by the enemy. Not very efficient in terms of ammo consumption, though.

  9. 16 minutes ago, Corvinus85 said:

    These will do nothing against modern tanks. Their cannons are too small. I guess they could demolish a few more houses, which is the Russian specialty anyway.

    There hasn't been much tank on tank warfare of late. Actually, of all the videos of exploding tanks I have seen since the beginning of the war, I don't remember a single case of one tank destroying another in frontal attack. It's usually artillery fire or drones. On the other hand, a 100mm gun is still a valuable asset on the battlefield. You may find this video interesting:


  10. 7 hours ago, Werthead said:

    They were Su-27s, which I suspect would last about 0.3 seconds in a dogfight against an F-35, so yeah, a mistake or a particularly elaborate form of suicide.

    I wouldn't be so sure. Actually, the Su-27 would probably win. The F-35 isn't supposed to get into dogfights and isn't very good at it. The F-22 is a different story. Ars Technica had a story on it a while ago.


  11. 19 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

    So, the re-run of the Berlin state election didn't go well for neither the SPD, nor the FDP.

    Greens are roughly level with their annulled result form last year, which may or may not be enough to finish 2nd ahead of the SPD.

    CDU managed to win that election. 

    Libertarians (FDP) possibly/probably below the 5% threshold.

    Linke relatively comfotably above it. I assume, they kept Wagenknecht away from the campaign trail. Lederer is distinctively not Wagenknecht.

    SPD with their worst result ever in Berlin. Not sure who was hurting the SPD more on a polling level, Scholz or Giffey. Giffey even managed to lose her own district, which she won quite comfortably last time.

    Berlin is is pretty much split between the center ("S-Bahn-Ring"), which votes Green, and the rest of the city, which has voted CDU this time. SPD, Linke, and FDP are losing relevance. AFD is halfway holding up but not doing particularly great either. Technically, the old senate could continue, but that may cost them at the next election. 

    As for why, I won't pretend to fully understand it, but the performance of the incumbent senate hasn't been particularly great. And that didn't start with Giffey. The same parties were already in government during Müller's second term, and that went so well that he didn't even run again.

    The really big change from 2021 is the result of the CDU, which is probably thanks to Merkel not being around anymore. It certainly isn't because Wegner is so brilliant, because he isn't.



    ETA: Here's the map


  12. 5 hours ago, kiko said:

    Years ago we lost a young engineer to Tesla. A couple of weeks ago I managed to recruit him back. If my uncool company is the better alternative, then there must be something wrong with Tesla. 

    From what I have heard it has always been like that with Musk's companies. They prey on the idealism of young people and exploit them mercilessly. After a few years they are burnt out and leave. Of course, this doesn't work for Twitter, as there is no "good cause" young people want to work for.

  13. 35 minutes ago, kiko said:

    What if those men are considered a net loss to the state? They are minorities, prisoners, poor people from far away. The cynics in Moscow might see getting rid of them while gaining a few square meters in Donbas as a positive effect. Once they are no longer available, they can be a bit more careful with the good Russian soldiers. And if they get their goals done, they have traded 10 Asian looking alcoholics for 1 blonde Russian looking kid each.

    This war looks more and more like population control. Finally the great reset, the rights all over the world are dreaming of.

    As horrible as these losses are, they aren't enough to have a big impact on Russia's demographics. There is another advantage to the Kremlin, though. Dead men don't talk. They have committed and witnessed all sorts of war crimes and know the true situation on the front line. Better get rid of them.

  14. 3 hours ago, Parsons said:

    I've seen some twitter footage of some of the cities. It looks like they've been attacked by Godzilla. I fear the death toll will climb since this is winter and they can't rescue people fast enough. The cold plus being trapped for so long will mean a lot of people are slowly expiring.

    Well, on the Syrian side things didn't look so great before the earthquake. There's an ongoing war and has been for a decade.

  15. On 2/3/2023 at 10:32 PM, Iskaral Pust said:

    I wonder if this is a case of Ford paying a big sponsorship fee to watch over the shoulder of the RB engineers as they continue to develop their existing engine platform (originally from Honda), or if this is a re-entry of the Cosworth engine.  The latter seems a big risk for RB to take (even with fuel changes ahead) while they are champions and have the best racing package, but that’s what makes F1 fun.

    The current engine is still developed by Honda. It's just rebadged. The engine for 2026 is Red Bull's own development. Honda isn't evolved. Honda is developing a new engine, too. They will be competitors from 2026.

  16. 53 minutes ago, mormont said:

    It's wild that the only Royal who actually seems to have disappeared from public view and be perfectly happy with that is Edward.

    ETA - although to be fair, I don't follow Royal affairs enough to know he's actually OK with it. Maybe he's like the Eric Trump of the Royal family, desperately trying to be relevant while the world is like 'oh yeah, there was another one, wasn't there?'

    How relevant is Andrew these days? He was the spare when he was young, and there was a big hype about him and Sarah back in the 1980s, but he has been pushed down in the line of succession by Charles's offspring. Would anybody even talk about him without that scandal? Does anybody talk about Edward and Anne? Or Sarah?

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