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Hugorfonics

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Posts posted by Hugorfonics

  1. 22 minutes ago, The Sleeper said:

    He is making an oath about things he has no control over. Probably because Doran led him to believe so. However he has no official capacity of his own. You should note that when Davos went to negotiate on Stannis behalf he had his own seal with him as his Hand as well as Stannis's seal.

    But Quentyn has his seal and if his father led him to believe he'd honor it then I'm sure sure he will 

    26 minutes ago, The Sleeper said:

    That is the price of the deal. 

    Right, Doran will expect Danys assistance in taking Pentos.

    27 minutes ago, The Sleeper said:

    More than likely her and Aegon will be enemies. Illyrio will be backing Aegon which makes him an enemy too. 

    Probably later but maybe not at first. I don't see how Illyrio can publicly back any Westerosi as he's not there and has no army

    28 minutes ago, The Sleeper said:

    My bad, I forgot a "not" there. She would not want relations with Dorne to further deteriorate. 

    Of course not, more of the reason to honor his sons last vow.

    29 minutes ago, The Sleeper said:

    I think Doran will be locked in backing Aegon and Dany in addition to her current will also have the Dothraki and the Volantene slaves. I think it will be a one-sided affair. 

    He may back Aegon over Dany for the throne but he'll back Dany for Pentos. I agree that Young Griff's not long for this world 

  2. 3 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

    Archibald's and Gerris's signature confirm that it was Quentyn who signed it, but since the latter had no authority and no way to prove that he was acting on Doran's behalf, this binds Quentyn. Doran is not bound by this in any way shape or form.

    Then why would his son say that his father would honor the seal? The man's a prince and a knight, I think his oath has to be respected in at least some shape or form 

    3 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

    Barristan's deal with Tatters is a separate issue entirely. It involves one different party and a different objective. Gerris and Yronwoods are simply the messengers and they are forced into it under penalty of death. For treason. 

    Same deal. It's all about Pentos.

    3 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

    Dany did not allow her feelings for Daario to affect major policy issues, before. She is unlikely to do it, later. If she takes Pentos it will be for different issues, as stated before

    What other issue besides her "voices" word? Oh Aegon? Yea maybe but probably not. Even if Illyrio had other reasons for Danys success he's still responsible for them 

    And it's not just Daario, it's also her blood of her blood (and a eunuch) these are extremely valuable hostages that will dramatically impact Danys feelings 

    3 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

    In the case of the knights, she might wish further deterioration in the relationship with Dorne.

    Why would she want that?

    3 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

    In Barristan's case, punishing when he was acting in her name would undermine her own authority. 

    I think your right, I think the triple alliance will lead to a bloody war in Pentos which wouldn't help Doran at all and he'll probably wish he could just leave that war and publicly back Aegon but he can't and it'll all be rather amusing 

  3. 50 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

    I belive he did ordered the kidnaping of Donella.

    Quote

    The elder Bolton sighed. "Again? Surely you misspeak. You never slew Lord Eddard's sons, those two sweet boys we loved so well. That was Theon Turncloak's work, remember? How many of our grudging friends do you imagine we'd retain if the truth were known? Only Lady Barbrey, whom you would turn into a pair of boots … inferior boots. Human skin is not as tough as cowhide and will not wear as well. By the king's decree you are now a Bolton. Try and act like one. Tales are told of you, Ramsay. I hear them everywhere. People fear you."

    "Good."

    "You are mistaken. It is not good. No tales were ever told of me. Do you think I would be sitting here if it were otherwise? Your amusements are your own, I will not chide you on that count, but you must be more discreet. A peaceful land, a quiet people. That has always been my rule. Make it yours."

    It's not his style. Ramsay however, fits like a glove, or boot. 

     

  4. 22 minutes ago, The Sleeper said:

    Neither Quentyn, nor Tatters is actually a prince in terms of ruling over something.

    But their title still dignifies honor and respect. Besides, the two witnesses knights also had credence to the legality 

    22 minutes ago, The Sleeper said:

    And what queen signed it?

    Hand of the queen cosigned it

    Quote

    "I mean to send them back to the Tattered Prince. And you with them. You will be two amongst thousands. Your presence in the Yunkish camps should pass unnoticed. I want you to deliver a message to the Tattered Prince. Tell him that I sent you, that I speak with the queen's voice. Tell him that we'll pay his price if he delivers us our hostages, unharmed and whole."

    And it is possible for Dany to sack Barri and call him an old kook or something but from Sunspears view there's very little leeway

    22 minutes ago, The Sleeper said:

    I am also sure that Dany did not mean to invite Quentyn to infiltrate her place and killed her guards in the dead of night, nor take her dragons to Dorne without her permission.

    Probably not. But she showed him the dragons and talked to him about his Targaryen ancestry. There was something going on there I think 

    22 minutes ago, The Sleeper said:

    Since Quentyn and Co declared themselves Dany's subjects, that makes what they did treason

    But Quentyns dead and co will be responsible for the safety of a top commander, her blood of her blood and her salt husband. If successful they'll be nothing short of heroes in the eyes of Dany 

  5. 1 hour ago, The Sleeper said:

    I'm pretty sure Quentyn believes it. But though he is a prince, he is not the Prince of Dorne. I don't recall him acknowledged publicly as the heir apparent.

    I think he believed it because that's what it is. The frog was obviously given lots of leeway to speak on his father's behalf because as things stand Viserys is in no condition to get married. Then two princes seals were stamped with two Dornish knights as witnesses. Everything eventually gets cosigned by the hand of the queen. There's so much legal mumbo jumbo involved here I don't see anyway Sunspear can go back on their word 

    1 hour ago, The Sleeper said:

    He also expects Doran to become accessory to treason against Dany. 

    What treason, the dragons? Dany was all like "the dragon has three heads" she basically invited him to take one. (One, not two lol) Anyway, he's dead now and his accomplices have received their chance for pardons 

  6. 36 minutes ago, The Sleeper said:

    Besides the pact was about delivering Quentyn with dragons to Dorne. 

    Quote

    "I have need of those swords. Dorne will hire you.”

    The Tattered Prince glanced at Pretty Meris. “He does not lack for gall, this Frog. Must I remind him? My dear prince, the last contract we signed you used to wipe your pretty pink bottom.”

    “I will double whatever the Yunkishmen are paying you.”

    “And pay in gold upon the signing of our contract, yes?”

    “I will pay you part when we reach Volantis, the rest when I am back in Sunspear. We brought gold with us when we set sail, but it would have been hard to conceal once we joined the company, so we gave it over to the banks. I can show you papers.”

    “Ah. Papers. But we will be paid double.”

    “Twice as many papers,” said Pretty Meris.

    “The rest you’ll have in Dorne,” Quentyn insisted. “My father is a man of honor. If I put my seal to an agreement, he will fulfill its terms. You have my word on that.”

    Princely seals and all that. Doran has no tangible way of getting out of this.

    The pact wasn't about personal dragons, just that Dany needs to be brought onto their side. Well if there's an alliance against Pentos then I suppose Frog succeeded 

  7. Dany may be able to get out of the alliance, if she politics. 

    The king was arrested. A coup launched by a disgruntled knight resulted in deaths and war. Dany may have to put her foot down and declare Barris tenure as illegitimate, thusly saving face in Essos, and more importantly in Magister Illyrios Pentos.

    Ok, cool. She can weasel. But this alliance didn't just involve Meereen and the Windblown but also Sunspear. 

    Quote

    "The rest you'll have in Dorne," Quentyn insisted. "My father is a man of honor. If I put my seal to an agreement, he will fulfill its terms. You have my word on that."

    I don't see anyway Doran can weasel his way out of this without losing face

  8. 49 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

    With this line of thinking he shouldn't attack anyone because they're all his subjects...

    He should lay down the law before his lords tare the kingdom apart, which is the entire job of a king

    50 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

    How does it give them momentum? They are steadily losing men while Renly is losing no one. The advantage Renly has in numbers gets better and better.

    Only in numbers but in experience and morale its definitely going north, and presumably a bit west (but probably not lol). Robb inspires confidence, his men charge into greater numbers and come out victorious, Renly inspires games like jousting and rape the goofy looking girl

    52 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

    I don't see how he's cruel and stupid. The Margaery plan wasn't the best but I don't think it's the worst either, at least he was doing something to counter Lannister influence.

    It unnecessarily stirred the pot, and it had no chance of success any way you look at it. Very much look at me vibes like old maester said (i know you find flaw in his reasoning, for whatever reason, but GRRM gave us this backstory to better understand why he is how he is)

    55 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

    I am training at the Citadel to be the next Master of Laws. Semantics are important! ;)

    Only when masking the egregious

    56 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

    Taking children from their mother may be the same thing as abduction, it depends on context. But it (abduction) is not the same as the children being arrested, which is what you said, that Renly was trying to arrest the children or have them arrested. They can't really abduct the children because if Ned went through with the plan everything would be done with full legal authority so I don't think it could be considered abduction in the sense that an abduction is usually illegal.

    I concede that like, in some situations the govt taking children from their parents should not be called abduction, however I would only say thats the case when direct danger to the children is probable. Under any other circumstance Ill say its abduction, kidnapping, human trading and any other colorful words thatll crop in my mind. Slave trading for instance, the reasoning of the government does not get to dispute the dictionary. The children will be forcefully taken from their mother and confided to the constant supervision of that taker, to be used as will. It is what it is.

    1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

    He turned traitor because he didn't like Joffrey and Cersei and thought he'd make a good king. Stannis' birthright wasn't even on his mind when he crowned himself because he didn't know about the incest. And Stannis has only himself to blame for not bringing it to Renly's attention sooner.

    Renly cant be king with a living Stannis, that doesnt make sense.

    Quote

    "As you say," said Robb, troubled. "Yet if neither one is king, still, how could it be Lord Renly? He's Robert's younger brother. Bran can't be Lord of Winterfell before me, and Renly can't be king before Lord Stannis."

    Quote

    Good men and true will fight for Joffrey, wrongly believing him the true king. A northman might even say the same of Robb Stark. But these lords who flocked to my brother's banners knew him for a usurper. They turned their backs on their rightful king for no better reason than dreams of power and glory, and I have marked them for what they are.

    Stannis had to be in his mind, not even Renly was that stupid. Its honestly why he crowned himself so fast, anybody with a vague understanding of dragonstone history knows Stannis fled to launch a rebellion so Renly had to declare himself king before the stormlords declared for Stannis.

    1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

    I don't think the Wildling situation is really comparable, Stannis had a very large element of surprise which wouldn't always be possible, the Wildlings were not as disciplined as Westerosi forces would be, there were lots of non-combatants amongst the Wildlings etc. Roderick's army was like Stafford's army, all fresh peasant levies with no training.

    Kinda surprised. He did attack a war camp after all, Mance thought it was a last ditch from Eastwatch but still not some veteran knights but still, there was 10 times the men. Its insane, and innacurate because not all were men. No not spearwives (although...) but giants riding on fucking mammoths. 
    Not just Roderick or Stafford but every single soldier in the story (that doesnt drape himself in steel and fur when visiting the 90 degreee brothal like some kinda Jorah) is a fresh peasant leavy. (some are fresher then others, sure) Oh, except the Essosi, theyre all slaves. 

    1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

    My interpretation of the events is that Balon attacked the North because it was the weaker target

    Misplaced vengeance for his sons I think. Probably misplaced because it was easy to see the murderer of his sons and the abductor as the same

    1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

    I think in a scenario where Renly is alive and allied with Robb Balon may well attack the Westerlands which now look the weaker target and isolated (as well as having better booty). But if Renly and Robb don't have an agreement Balon attacking Robb helps Renly. He could let Robb and Balon fight it out amongst themselves like he did with Robb and the Lannisters, then descend on the weakened survivor.

    Alright, the kings murdered. Princes flayed. Princess raped. Armies blown into dust. Lots of time has passed, the StarkTully faction is not the same thing it was, one might say it was defeated. Yet still, the lords rise for Rickon, still the Vale knights stir at Harrys wedding. The lords in their heart remain loyal, the separated soldiers of the North remembers and, you know, winter is coming. Does the North look weak?
    Or the king is dead, after launching an unpopular war that caused many victims and now prepare to descend simultaneously on two of the greatest cities in the world, Oldtown and Meereen. Does Greyjoy look weak?

    1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

    You agree it was Robb's fault for not telling Edmure the plan, right? I hate it when poor Edmure is unfairly slandered :angry:

    But I don't think the defence of the Riverlands would have been sustainable long term, Robb had too few men and the geography of the region makes it hard to defend, not to mention the lack of food would start to become an issue.

    Robbs fault? Obviously not. Wouldn't blame Edmure either, although its understandable why someone politically had to get chewed out. 

    Robbs few men were undefeated and Edmures policy of kicking men off his land left them with enough food. Brynden had mad food for instance. 
    Numbers are for arithmetic, as I started this thread off implying by stating the three biggest one sided cocky generals battle.

    1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

    Not just Renly thought that, Tyrion and Marq Piper did so to.

    Tyrion did not, he hoped theyd fight Stannis' men and wasnt given a no but the real outcome he wanted was to force an abduction of Cerseis child. For some reason he thought thatd calm her down, maybe it did?

    1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

    Robert called off the assassins and they didn't hire the good ones because Petyr though it was too expensive, Renly clearly thought Daenerys and Viserys were a threat and if he still thought that way when he was king he wouldn't fool around, he'd likely try to hire the Faceless men if possible.

    Probably not possible. It perhaps cost Euron a dragons egg for Balon.
    (you know he didnt really call it off, right? Like, he gave the order a half a world away, how could it be reversed?)

    1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

    For me the death of Renly was the worst part of the entire series.

    Strange, a minor character in a series of heart wrenching books, but ok.

    1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

    I had to stop reading and take some time to do comforting things like pretending he was still alive or would come back :(

    He did.

    1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

    Hopefully I will be rewarded with the death of Stannis.

    I dont understand how the death of a fictional character is a reward, but you will be.

    1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

    I didn't get that sense at all, I thought Stannis was going to lose until he committed fratricide.

    Yea you said that, but we knew Stannis was the sea guy so hence the point of the chain

  9. 22 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

    Why should they be fighting when their enemies are fighting each other for them?

    Mainly because theyre his subjects. But also because its giving them momentum 

    23 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

    Cruelty doesn't necessarily affect whether someone is pragmatic or not. From a pragmatic viewpoint it was arguably a good move as it likely meant Cersei wouldn't try anything against them. And the children wouldn't be arrested, they would be removed from Cersei's care, which isn't necessary the same thing.

    Its certainly possible to be cruel and pragmatic, like say Tyrion knocking down houses adjacent to the castle walls before BW, but its also possible to be cruel and stupid, as Renly demonstrates. (you agree that his Marge/Robert plan was ludicrous?)
    Tywin is the enemy, not Cersei. All Renly doing here is a half measure forcing Lannisters hand. 
    Lol, you and your semantics. Yes its the same thing. Taking children from their mother is nothing short of abduction.

    27 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

    How? Ned, the legal regent, wasn't going to listen to him. Even if Renly hangs around he can give Ned 100 more swords, if Ned doesn't go with his plan it makes no difference as the City Watch still sides with Cersei.

    If Neds the legal regent then Renly has to listen to him, not turn traitor because he enjoys stealing his brothers birthright. 100 fighting men would have been more then enough to chop Janos down

    28 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

    He's in the Reach, the most fertile region with a bountiful food supply as noted by Catelyn when she meets with him, futhermore Renly is moving from place to place so he would be avoiding disease and eating the land bare. The armies in Meereen start to suffer from disease because they stay in one place too long, something Renly isn't doing.

    Every army is just Covid on wheels

    29 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

    They're getting weaker because they're loosing men by the day, not to mention they have a huge disadvantage in numbers to start with.

    But numbers dont mean shit. And theyre not getting weaker, the Riverlands are going gungho on Robbs war, the West continuously raises more armies and Tywin and Robb both remain with their elite force

    31 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

    With his biggest and bestest army :P

    Seriously though, Tywin and Robb were killing each other, Renly had almost double their men combined in numbers. In the scenario where Renly didn't due, if the Greyjoys still attacked Robb it might benefit him if he's not worked something out with Robb, if he had the Greyjoys might have attacked the weaker and isolated Westerlands instead. Robb can't defend the Riverlands, geography is against him and he doesn't have enough men. Just now Doran is all talk no action. And multiple people say Doran was going to declare for Renly anyway. With the Daenerys issue, well she won't be coming until later, and Renly may choose to send assassins after her again.

    Very much alive. Mance had 10 times then men as Stannis, Rodrik 5 to Ramsays 1. Numbers are useless because all these armies are just a bunch of peasants anyway. Greyjoy is attacking Robb and breaking off into an independent nation. Robb has done a tremendous job of defending the RL, although I should say Edmure who was more hands on. Doran will act, although Renly thought hed show up because Renly was delusional like that. Because it worked so well last time? 

    35 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

    It was supposed to be a joke about how we can't have nice things in the books.

    We get some nice things. Like the death of Renly

    36 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

    First time we have ever seen the shadow assassin being used. Never even heard of it until that point. Barely any foreshadowing. It was completely unexpected for me.

    We knew Mel had magic and we knew Stannis was going to win, Tyrions not building a chain for his health you know

  10. 12 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

    Do you have a quote for that?

    Nope. (If you're forcing me to be serious I'll chalk to to 20% of the knights, though 35 may hit the margin too. Obviously if it was most or all of them she'd be dead already.)

    14 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

    Randyll Tarly wasn't aware until informed by his own son. 

    Neither one are knights.

    15 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

    Renly does not get drunk. It is explicitly noted by Catelyn that he drinks and eats in moderation. And he wasn't really 'sitting around', he was marching slowly and gathering more support, it was a deliberate plan.

    Looked a lot like sitting around.

    15 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

    What's wrong with them loosing to Brienne? She is one of the better fighters in the series. She is very skilled and lucked out in the genetic lottery when it came to fighting advantages, being big and strong.

    They should be out fighting men, not losing to a woman. I am not throwing shade at Brienne, only her peers. 

    17 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

    Well because I think he makes the right call all the time

    Gotta be one of the most unsuccessful characters of asoiaf. Maybe Little Walder.

    18 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

    tries to get rid of Cersei because she's a pain,

    How? I mean something about Lynannas, but what?

    Cersei is a pain, not ugly. Robert knows damn well Cersei is infiltrating the govt but is unable to do anything because he was weak as fuck. Ned believed twincest would reinvigorate his friend which is plausible but a pretty face is just fatuous.

    22 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

    pain, tries to make sure Ned is unopposed as Regent to reign in Cersei

    If your talking about arresting a mother and her three children then it gets obvious he's not just fatuous but downright cruel.

    24 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

    realises that everything's going to go wrong and gets out of King's Landing

    He actually could have made a difference here

    25 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

    gathers the largest army ever seen in Westeros, takes control of the Kingdom's food supply,

    Mace could have done all this by himself. He is the joke of Westeros, so idk what that makes Renly

    26 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

    loses no men while his enemies get weaker by the day, etc.

    He's eating the land bare. Large armies just hanging out tend to get sick as we see in Danys pov, social distance and such. 

    Who's getting weaker? Robbs soldiers and Tywins are becoming veterans, along with the Greyjoy and the random dog walkers of Riverlands. 

    He's losing momentum as fast as Mace gave it to him.

    29 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

    He was all set up to win

    Win what?

    He may have defeated Tyrion if Stannis never came knocking, may, but then what? Defeat either Tywin or the Young Wolf? What about Doran and Greyjoy? What about Dany?

    31 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

    and was also a fairly nice, competent guy, so of course he wasn't allowed to get anywhere near the Throne alive

    What? I disagree with all that but if I didn't how would that bar him from the IT?

    32 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

    to be taken out by never seen before, barely hinted at

    Not the first usurper to get assassinated nor the first brother to have received a hitman 

    34 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

    impossible to defend from means. 

    Handful of garlic and a couple of Hail Marys should do the trick

  11.               Roose seemed amused by that. "All you have I gave you. You would do well to remember that, bastard.
                                                                                                       .
    This is quite a statement coming from a man who owes everything he as to his son.

    14 hours ago, James Steller said:

    It's safe to say that Ramsay isn't a very deep thinker,

    Id call that dangerous thinking, so would Hornwood, Theon, Ser Rodrik, Manderly, etc, 

    14 hours ago, James Steller said:

    but even he must have known that openly abducting and killing the widow of a major Northern house would get him into serious trouble

    Maybe not, the preliminary talks back at Winterfell made it clear that the Hornwood debacle was ambiguous

    14 hours ago, James Steller said:

    But even then, he was set to be executed if it wasn't for Theon saving his life by taking Winterfell.

     Possibly. If the crimes were on Ramsay and Reek was just like a slave/witness he may have walked.

    14 hours ago, James Steller said:

    Roose somehow trusted him enough to give him command of House Bolton's remaining forces, and he proceeds to use them to create a crisis which threatens to tear his house apart.

    Why do you think that? Roose gave Ramsay armor and hes known in the Dreadfort but I highly doubt he was given command of the Dreadfort

    14 hours ago, James Steller said:

    He could have gotten Ramsay killed so many times before and nobody would have mourned him.

    Kinslayer and such, besides, Ramsays good for Bolton.

    14 hours ago, James Steller said:

     

    Did Roose leave Ramsay in charge in the hope that he'd wreak havoc in the North when most of the fighting forces were away? Did he give Ramsay instructions?

    Not a chance. The logistics cant add up. 
    -Roose goes to Winterfell to pay homage (lets say he leaves his child bastard in charge instead of an adult with a title)
    -Robbs in the south and wants Greatjon to take hes footmen, but changes his mind to Roose. (ok, its possible Roose told Rams that)
    - Roose is running away from Tywin, his P.O address is somewhere in the RL, how can he message Ramsay to occupy Hornwood, or vice versa?
    -Roose is the lord now of weasel soups but his son is in jail. Once again the logistics dont add up on how they can communicate.
    -Ramsay escapes Theons clutches and arrives at the Dreadfort. Now seriously, how the hell could Roose have left a message to Ramsay about conquering Winterfell! 

    Ramsays game was driven through luck, almost exclusively, but the bit thats not is nothing but guile and shrewdness from Ramsay, not Roose. 

  12. On 9/22/2022 at 2:40 AM, Craving Peaches said:

    enly probably hoped she did because it would make things easier, but I don't think there is enough to go on to say that the whole scheme was based on this.

    Ok, but the whole scheme is still ludicrous, which is why I wondered why you called Renly pragmatic.

    On 9/22/2022 at 2:40 AM, Craving Peaches said:

    But that wasn't the entire army, was it? Not everyone was involved in the wager. And not everyone was in the melee Brienne competed in. So I don't think the claim that Brienne beat up and humiliated his entire army was correct.

    From the dishwashers to Marge herself.
    Seriously, we're talking more then 75% of the knights regarding both the melee and the wager.

    On 9/22/2022 at 2:40 AM, Craving Peaches said:

    So Catelyn thinks that the men wanting to lead the van are all untried just like Loras

     Cats not doing a rollcall because thats not an interesting read. But if the entire chivalry of stormlands and reach is in Renlys pavilion then there are lords or possibly even knights there whove seen combat.

     

     

    On 9/22/2022 at 4:15 AM, frenin said:

    Does he need a magic sword to inform either Robert or Ned?

    That was the past, and he probably couldnt have helped anyway. Robert who belives nobody ever would call Stannis a liar and Lannister would be on to him. He cant inform Ned because Pycelle goes through his mail

     

    On 9/22/2022 at 4:15 AM, frenin said:

    And he doesn't have an obligation, no one is forcing him to the throne,

    The law is. In his mind he definitely has an obligation. You may disagree but he does not.

    On 9/22/2022 at 4:15 AM, frenin said:

    The basic law is whatever people excuse can come up with.

    Not really. Robb knew he was a rebel, Tyrion knew he was sending agents to free Jaime instead of following the law and being peaceful. 

    On 9/22/2022 at 4:15 AM, frenin said:

    Renly has more swords than Stannis, Robb or Tywin combined. He's handsome and charismatic by all and the commons adore him.

    If Renly is going to jump the shark and commit treason, he's clearly the best bet to do it. Going towards Stannis appeases no one but Stannis and still leaves the Reach as a wildcard.

    Perhaps he made a right move, but the momentum was certainly lost by acokk, where he sits around getting drunk and watches his best soldiers lose to a girl.

    On 9/22/2022 at 4:15 AM, frenin said:

    They clearly didn't believe they were going nowhere.

    We have no idea what they think. Saan thought they were going to go in though 

    On 9/22/2022 at 4:15 AM, frenin said:

    The author seems to be hyping up Stannis, which is fair enough,  his foes only know he's gathering strenght and he's badass. We get to see how pitiful his situation is, by his own words

    Like Robb whos situation was more pitiful then the Lannisters made it seem, although hes certainly badass

    On 9/22/2022 at 4:15 AM, frenin said:

    You're assuming the Tyrells are going to follow Renly wherever he may go, my point is that they won't. They have will on their own

    No they dont. 0 free will there. Loras follows Renly, Mace follows Loras and Maces mom follows him. Its an entire kingdom of lemmings.

    On 9/22/2022 at 4:15 AM, frenin said:

    Given that the final decision of crowning Robert was only made around the time of the trident.

    If I were to guess i'd say that the idea of crowning a dragon became an increasingly bitter drink the more the fighting went on till they acknowledged the Targs had to go entirely.

    Where Ned famously wasnt, interesting. But like most SSMs GRRM is clearly holding something back so I dont think we should give too much credence to it, like all other SSMs lol.
    Jaime thought of crowning his dad, Robert being the only option is some Renly type thinking

    On 9/22/2022 at 4:15 AM, frenin said:

    Renly escapes before Ned is seized and he crowns himself after the Whispering Wood.

    It is not a week.

    Before WW.
    10 days? 

  13. 51 minutes ago, frenin said:

    It's not, not by a longshot. The man left Robert to die, how can he talk about avenge him?

    Does Stannis have a magic sword? (lol) Hes not Symeon Stareyes, he let Robert die to save himself and to be able to rid the throne of Lannisters.
    Anyway thats the past, if he failed Robert it was in the past tense. Now in the present he can avenge

    51 minutes ago, frenin said:

    The difference between Stannis and Renly is that the latter has no qualms to say the quiet part out loud while Stannis has to mask his desires as obligations.

    But only because he has an obligation. If Renly did hed be singing the same sad tune

    51 minutes ago, frenin said:

    Seems pretty honest to me.

    I don't like that guy, that guy gotta go it's better to let your brother die, and ignore your duty to him, and wait till you actually kinda, maybe have the best claim.

    Its honest but its also a brake of protocol and the basic law, unlike Stannis who is following the rules. Cruel and craven it may be.

    51 minutes ago, frenin said:

    Why should pay him homage? Renly doesn't know about the twincest and when he does he doesn't believe in it. Renly crowning Stannis is no less usurpation and treason than him crowning himself in his eyes and most of the Realm.

    He offers a flimsy excuse no one really believes in and unless he knows about the shadow babies, he does not need to fear Stannis.

    Slightly more acceptable usurpation though. We see Robb would have likely thrown his support behind Stannis if the roles were reversed. 
    Theres other things then shadowbabies that can assassinate, everyone in the sunset knows Stannis is dangerous except apparently his brother. Dangerous and desperate, bad choice to make an enemy of.

    1 hour ago, frenin said:

    He also wrote them writing off Robb as an incovenience easy to be dealt with due his inexperience.

    They also didn't know the strenght Stannis truly commanded or could command in the near future.

    Stannis himself and his allies knew he had no chance of winning without a sizable army.

    Stannis and his army are a bunch of fundamentalist nuts, they believe all sorts of weird shit. Anyway, my point was the author is clearly sewing some doubt in the readers mind

    1 hour ago, frenin said:

     

    1 hour ago, frenin said:

    Sure but Renly and the Tyrells are a far better bet than Renly and Stannis.

    Stannis stole Renly's armies and still was destroyed by the Tyrells anyway.

    But all together is even better then apart. But for sure, everyones fucked either way, if they had common sense theyd bend the knee to Sansa and get it over with.

    1 hour ago, frenin said:

    The High Septon did, i'm sure.

    Both Ned and JonA acted as Kingmakers.

    They killed all his enemies and gave him a kingdom but there was never any doubt that Robert would be king. After kingslaying the western lords ask Jaime if he wants to be kingmaker and his thoughts go to Robert, not Jon or Ned. We dont know much about Jon but Neds entire arc is just running away from his responsibilities despite being the only man able to do the job, so he definitely didnt desperately want the throne.

    1 hour ago, frenin said:

    About three- five months, give or take. Not really quickly

    Closer to a week I think.

    1 hour ago, frenin said:

    Stannis may do something but he's convinced by burning his enemies, getting the throne and avenging himself on this traitors.

    Quite the character.


     

    1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

    The scheme was based on his desire to get rid of Cersei who wanted to kill him. He doesn't assume Margaery looks like Lyanna, he goes to Ned to check. And it isn't essential to the scheme that she looks like Lyanna, just that she looks good enough to attract Robert's attention.

    It seems to be based off of her appearance to Lyanna. Neds all like wtf? And he doesnt even know the real scheme

    Quote

    Renly had seemed anxious to know if the girl reminded him of anyone, and when Ned had no answer but a shrug, he had seemed disappointed. The maid was Loras Tyrell's sister Margaery, he'd confessed, but there were those who said she looked like Lyanna. "No," Ned had told him, bemused. Could it be that Lord Renly, who looked so like a young Robert, had conceived a passion for a girl he fancied to be a young Lyanna? That struck him as more than passing queer.

     

    1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

    He criticises Robert's rule on multiple occasions.

    And does whatever he wants

    1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

    ??? 

    Brienne beat Loras and a few other knights, that's hardly his entire army. And she didn't humiliate them, at least not ??intentionally. She competed in a melee. That's it.

    ???
    Everysingle one of them had money on the line on when they will rape her. After beating them up they cried trickery and every other excuse they can think of. They were clearly humiliated

    1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

    The other people who are mentioned as asking, aside from Tarly, are I think Ser Guyard and Jon Fossoway, again young knights with no experience like Loras.

    The entire chivalry of the south was there. Thats more then just Loras.

    Quote

    Catelyn sent Hal Mollen to tend to their horses while she accompanied Renly back to the royal pavilion at the heart of the encampment. Inside the walls of green silk, his captains and lords bannermen were waiting to hear word of the parley.

    Lords bannermen. Plural

    1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

    I think we are going to have to agree to disagree on this point

    Ok

  14. 52 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

    Renly is quite pragmatic

    He is a usurper and traitor who as a child was known for being eccentric and vain always demanding the center of attention. As an adult he orchestrates a scheme to replace Cersei under the incorrect assumption that Marge is Lynannas doppelganger which would reawaken Roberts one true love, or some nonsense. His entirety of work at the SC was to be a yes man to his failing king. The only thing worth while he did was allow Brienne to fight beside him, and that's after she beat up and humiliated his entire army. Why do you think he's pragmatic?

    52 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

    The others who wanted to lead the van (I think) were all young and inexperienced like Loras.

    I don't think so, the chivalry of the south was there. Like Lord Rowan for example.

    52 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

    I'm not sure about that, if anything he could have been overestimating Stannis

    He calls them onion knights and codfish sailors 

    52 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

    he brought quadruple his numbers in heavy cavalry alone to fight him. 

    Another factor. Renly is making this a decisive battle which could go horribly wrong 

    52 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

    I don't think it would have really been an issue. He only has a small portion of his army with him and is in his own lands. They can forage etc.

    The entire cavalry needs to graze, these goddamn knights travel with squires, camp followers and other useless mouths. Also foraging during battle means men being averted. And majorly if the train burns Renly will eventually starve.

    52 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

    I didn't really feel that was the case when reading.

    Small thing, he says he's praying and nobody cared so its not a big deal. In fact his brother was at that moment also praying, err fucking. Still, I think it's worth noting. 

    52 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

    Margaery is with his 80,000 strong host in the friendly lands of the Reach. Why would she be in jeopardy?

    Because she's a non combatant by a battlefield.

    52 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

    I think that his win is supposed to look guaranteed to make his death more shocking.

    Then why did GRRM include Catelyn's notes and Randylls? Why did GRRM write about the Lannisters perceiving Stannis as the greater threat?

     

     

    40 minutes ago, frenin said:

    Stannis is making a clear distinction between his brothers greedily eyeing for the throne and him being unwillingly pushed towards it by duty.

    Well, it's kinda true. Right? I mean that's what it is. I agree Stannis is kinda playing the victim here but he clearly thinks his honor dictates him to avenge Robert and reinstate Baratheon rule.

    Where as his brothers had no honor to fall back on (not saying theyre dishonorable like that) and their only campaign speeches seems to amount to fuck that guy.

    40 minutes ago, frenin said:

    Why the second should have been Stannis? How can he even get to him if Stannis has made it impossible? 

    He can take a ship to his brothers fortress and pay homage like a good little brother 

    40 minutes ago, frenin said:

    Stannis offers absolutely nothing to Renly, he's more a hindrance than anything, Ned is respected, feared, beloved and has powerful allies... Stannis is only feared.

    He offers two things, one legality. The other, being not making an enemy of Stannis.

    40 minutes ago, frenin said:

    And if Renly is willing to jump three stairs in the succesion line to go to Stannis, why not five and he gets the Tyrell support and make his bid a sure thing?

    In for a stag in for a dragon? Because gambling doesn't always work out.

    40 minutes ago, frenin said:

    The decision of crowning Robert came from Jon Arryn and or Ned

    Bullshit. Ned made Robert sure, but he didn't crown him. 

    40 minutes ago, frenin said:

    The decision of crowning Renly only comes after Ned refuses  his plan to get the regency

    So pretty quickly.

    40 minutes ago, frenin said:

    Stannis meanwhile,  blindsides and abandons Robert, he steals his fleet and goes awol, he plots to get Renly killed to get his armies and after he mismanages them and loses badly, he plots to kill his nephew.

    Of course, my guy desperately wants the throne. 

    The Edric debacle can be written off as Stannis believed he was desperate to save the world, not just sit on a chair.

    40 minutes ago, frenin said:

    It is not an applicable summary.

    Theyre warlords who rule over barbarians. They desperately want the throne like they desperately want food and water.

    Does Dany desperately want the throne? Balon? Euron? Joffrey? Cersei? Am I forgetting anyone, how about Roose Bolton?

  15. 1 minute ago, frenin said:

    He says it's his duty as Robert's heir.

    Duty is an obligation.

    Yes. He says it's not a question of wants. That's not saying he doesn't want it at all, just that being king is his duty. 

    Stannis never emphatically denies he wants the throne.

    4 minutes ago, frenin said:

    Stannis never comes up in his convo with Ned, you're mistaking it with either the show or his convo with Petyr.

    Renly urges Ned to seize the kids and be officially acknowledged as regent, Ned refuses and Renly assumes Ned's a goner and flees King's Landing.

    Renly only considers crowning himself once it's impossible to separate Joffrey from the Lannisters, Ned was the last ship.

    Ned was the first, what Roberts will said. But the second should have been Stannis. I mean, he's clearly jumping the lines of succession here.

    5 minutes ago, frenin said:

    His brothers certainly wanted it you don't claim a throne by accident, how much it's unknown but Stannis is adding a qualifier that only applies to him.

    I think it was an applicable summary 

  16. 2 minutes ago, frenin said:

    Obligation isn't a want tho.

    Which is my point, he says he doesn't want it but he has to pursue it. 

    He doesn't say that, he just changes the conversation.

    3 minutes ago, frenin said:

    That is the ultimate deflection for greediness.

    Of course 

    3 minutes ago, frenin said:

    Regents are de facto dictators tho.

    Right, but Ned says Stannis so Renly had to change his plans, which immediately was a coronation because he... (All together now) desperately wanted it.

    5 minutes ago, frenin said:

    Agree on some and disagree on others but it's not the point. The point is that Stannis is lying and pushing his shit onto his brothers. Robert and Renly are screwed up enough for Stannis to put his repressed desires on them.

    I see what your saying, and I agree Stannis desperately wants the throne (like he's not the rightful king. Targaryen is a thing) but I'm also confident his brothers wanted it too 

  17. 3 minutes ago, frenin said:

    When asked about why does he wants it, he says that its's not a question about wanting, it's his and his duty. It's his obligation to get it.

    Exactly

    3 minutes ago, frenin said:

    It always seemed funny to me because Renly's first instinct was to have Ned as sole regent

    Everybody thought Eddard was going to be defacto dictator, well everyone but Eddard and Cersei that is

    4 minutes ago, frenin said:

    whereas Robert hated the throne and was depressed with his life

    That because he was a lethargic abusive drunk whom nobody loved, let alone liked. That is of course except Eddard although he tried his best to alienate his newly created Hand at every moment.

  18. 17 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

    I can't see why they would all fight hand to hand. If they come off the horse they can still use swords etc. Loras is an able swordfighter and Garlan wasn't there to choose in the first place. The job of the vanguard in the books seems to be charge and smash. So as most likely the best lance there I think Loras was a fine pick. Renly has experienced men commanding other parts of his army, Rowan is leading the left I think and one of the older Estermonts, who I assume would have experience, is also in command. Presumably he wants to keep Tarly and possibly others close by to advise him.

    For sure, Loras is adequate. But still the appointment was done with favoritism in mind or at least it was a political decision, not a military one. And for all we know the knight of flowers woulda killed it, but theres no way anyone could have known that. He was green while other notable commanders were passed over. If not a lethal mistake its still a factor worth looking into.

    20 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

    Davos is a good naval commander. I don't think we know very much about his skill leading men on land or his personal fighting skill. I like Davos but I can't see how he'd make much of a difference unless it was retreating well with the ships. And Davos is just one man. Stannis himself thinks his army is poor.

     Renlys army appears to be far better, but my point was Renlys still underestimating the competition which is never wise. This too is a factor.

    22 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

    Renly was in his own lands. I don't think supply really wouldn't have been as much of an issue as Catelyn thought.

    Renlys army was massive. Medieval armies were like locusts to the fields they were staying in, Renlys size was like the spotted lantern fly.

    23 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

    Also the battle would probably be over quite quickly by which point he could go straight back, if for some reason he ran out of supplies in his own territories. What hostages did Renly have?

    And if it was not over quickly then Renlys royally fucked, his battle is not only against Stannis but also time, this surely counts as a factor.
    His queen and her father.

    27 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

    But he did finalize the battleplans. We see him talk about them and Lord Rowan says they are "well drawn-up". What's wrong with him getting laid before battle?

    His mind is elsewhere

    27 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

    I'm sure Robert did it as well and it didn't hurt him.

    Im sure he did too and it would have if Eddard, like usual, didnt bail him out when he was literally knee deep in some instead of fighting.

    28 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

    I don't think he neglected the battleplans just to spend more quality time with Loras, if that's what you're saying.

    Thats what im saying.

    Its not a crazy thing to spend your final moments of your previous life with your lover before embarking on your lifes climax, but it clearly is a factor, and with all the other minimal factors in place (not choosing the place, the time, the experienced generals not up front, fighting time, far from the train, unable to protect Marge if she is in jepordy, etc) Renlys win was certainly far from guaranteed

    30 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

    Jon does want Winterfell. His own thoughts confirm it. Unconsciously he may even be willing to kill his siblings for it. But I think if Jon was ever offered a way to discreetly kill his siblings to get Winterfell, a way they couldn't defend against and couldn't be reliably traced back to him, he wouldn't take it. Stannis on the other hand...

    would probably not. (its all sus)
    The logistics dont add up. Stannis had to have sex to kill Renly, the man is fucking insane no doubt there but I do not believe he was able to get a boner while contemplating his baby brothers death. This whole scenario is so weird its borderline comical, (like Euron and the dusky woman)
    The more oblivious explanation is Stannis belived Renly would die if he sailed to SE and Meli just seduced him when they got there like she tried with Davos and Jon she does not mention any shadowbabies to Snow, so we can assume thats how it went down with Stannis too, probably both times but definitely the first time

  19. 1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

    Loras says his brother is a better warrior, but that he is a better lance. Given that Loras is leading the vanguard to charge I think he was a very good choice. I wouldn't choose Randyl because then my best general is away up front where he cannot advise me at all. I think Renly made the right choice there.

    The lance is good at first wave, but after that its all hand to hand. Swords and stuff, things that Garlen is good at. Also if Randyll must lead the rear then another veteran lord would have been the more conventional choice for the front, being not a teenager whos actually seen combat.

    1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

    Renly doesn't just think he will win due to sheer numbers, he also thinks the quality of his troops compared to Stannis is important.

    Its unwise to underestimate the opponent, onion knights? We know that dudes badass. Renlys men look bigger and stronger, sure, but that alone doesnt write victory.

    1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

    Obviously Renly's superior numbers give him confidence, but the quality of his troops, especially compared to Stannis, also seems to factor in.

    Sure, battles are chaotic by nature and many factors will be at play, like how he left his supply train, along with valuable hostages, distant from the army which Catelyn noted as a red flag. Another factor could be that instead of finalizing battleplans or boosting the morale of his troops at the eve of battle he was getting laid.

     

    1 hour ago, Corvo the Crow said:

    I tell you who wouldn't. Jon. Just look at Jon and ask yourself whether he wants more power or not. We've even seen it through his eyes how he feels with all those duties, responsibilities, power... and believe it or not the character that's most similar to him is Stannis. We've even been told that by Melisandre but even if she hadn't, it's there to see. Stannis is an older Jon who's been embittered  by frustration. Oh also one that's awkward when with the ladies.

    I'd say Stannis may be in constant denial of many things but not wanting the throne, well, at least not for the sake of wanting it for himself, is not one of these.

    Of course he would. Dude was straight salivating for Winterfell, who knows how he'll act for KL. But I agree with the similarities, majorly being they crave duty more then a crown, it just so happens that theyre the same thing

  20. 28 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

    I read that horses not being able to see exactly what is in front of them may help with a cavalry charge, since they will be less likely to shy away eg. break the charge.

    I guess that makes sense? Won't they be susceptible to trips and tumbles?

    And Loras is an adequate warrior, in fact one might say good, how he dealt with his rainbow brothers but by his own admission even his brother is a greater warrior. Not to mention they're both green while there are veterans of war like Tarly whom one would assume would have lead the van. Loras is adequate, but there are better options then what Renly decided.

    34 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

    I don't think those battles are really comparable to this situation

    For sure, but what is the similarity is one side went through great lengths to choose the field while the other didn't seem to care because of the numerical advantage.

    Also, while I do think Stannis is gifted militarily ( how he managed to survive without calling a retreat at BW before finally when the reinforcements arrived is impressive, though one may say ludicrous. Then his win over Mance is straight legendary) he clearly is not Hannibal, Zhuge Liang or Napoleon because frankly nobody else in the world is (all 3 in the long run are military losers, that's interesting)

    I don't think Stannis was guaranteed a win, but I also don't think Renly was. I don't think any battle is guaranteed but with Renlys compounded mistakes the odds looks worse.

  21. 24 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

    Also it may benefit Renly more as his horses will be less likely to shy away when charging.

    If the horses charge into the sunlight the animals could lose sight, let alone the knights 

    24 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

    What was so bad about it?

    He agreed to every preparation Stannis made. Under no circumstances should the opponent choose the field of battle. Cannae, Austerlitz, Red Cliffs, these are the greatest battles in history. All incredibly one sided because the opponent choose where to fight

  22. 1 hour ago, frenin said:

    Yes. 

    Citation?

    He wonders why his brothers desperately wanted it, that's not saying he doesn't want it 

    3 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

    . Renly outnumbered Stannis four to one in just heavy cavalry so he had no reason to back down from a battle he was sure to win. 

    Perhaps you should say likely to win? Four to one is a lot but it's not as much of a difference as BW or the Wall, Stannis' other battles. Numbers don't mean everything, in fact in asoiaf the smaller army usually prevails.

    Also Renlys war council was just, no.

  23. 3 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

    Does anyone else get the feeling that Stannis, despite all his protestations to the contrary, does actually want to be king very much? He denies it and goes on about his duty, but I think inside he would like all the recognition and power in entails. He seems quite bitter about being overshadowed by his brothers. There is also the fact that he has done some questionable things to get a throne he says he doesn't want. I know he goes on and about duty and law, but I think at some point you have to wonder if those are really all that motivates him. And if he was so concerned about duty, why did he abandon Robert?

    He denies that he wants the throne?

    He sees it as his duty, but I'm sure he also wants to be king. Who wouldn't?

    I think Stannis believed he took all the reasonable steps in helping Robert but after JonA was murdered and Robert continued whistling along like nothing was wrong Stannis fled for his life in preparation to fight Lannister 

  24. 31 minutes ago, BalerionTheCat said:

    I forgot about the statue. But KL will be destroyed. In totality I believe hope. And his statue too.
    His house future doesn't look good. Because of what he and Cersei have done. And Tyrion has a very good start at destroying it too.

    Imagine the statue is the only thing left standing lol.

    I agree with everything, Tywin even more so then his children wrote the fall of Lannister. 

    It's possible the house falls, the twins and the kids are gonners for sure. I want a good ending for Tyrion and Shakespeare made it clear only death can bring that so that's probably a thing to.( Maybe my boy Tyreek Hill will calm the fuck down and change his name back to Lannister to save the house lol)

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