sweetsunray

I disagree with this bar you set that Tywin must make a lesson out of punishment to others, or that it has to be a specific lesson other than "I'm utterly ruthless, don't cross me." or "We're lions and top of the chain." I find this question of yours weird. Hatred and resentment can exist without trying to educate anyone. Preferably an educator does not feel any of that towards their pupils. Nor do such sentiments cease after Rhaegar's death.

And someone like Elia Martel, whom he refused as a bride for Jaime but suggested to be Tyrion's wife instead, ended up as Rhaegar's wife. There is no doubt in my mind that he saw himself as taking insults and groveled to this end, and then when Elia got it he wanted her punished somehow. The Mountain may not even have been the first attempt. Is it coincidence that the Smiling Knight is compared to the Mountain in Jaime's mind, given the fact that he was one of the outlaws of the Kingswood Brotherhood who attempted to kidnap Elia Martell while escorted by the LC himself Gerold Hightower? The audacity of this. It's not unlike Cersei's plan even for Tristane. What's the song again? Gold and a maiden's hand.

Agreed. Heck even Genna dresses Cersei up at the start of the tourney bearing the message with such certainty that the tourney will end with a betrothal. But yeah, Kevan's delusion is perhaps the strangest. He knows about Lancel and Cersei and Jaime. He knows how she had a bad influence on Joffrey and demands only to be Hand if he can also be regent, and she returns to the Rock to stay away from Tommen as far as possible. He knows she's politically stupid, a bad mother and dangerous. "But only if Rhaegar had wed Cersei"...

Ned: Becoming Hand to uncover a murder plot based on a claim by a woman he believes to be grief stricken after the death of her husband. His own initial intuition is right on the money: stay North. But then he listens to the bad counsel of Luwin and Cat - go be Hand and take everyone with you, but Robb, to play at Hercule Poirot. So, imo his biggest mistake is taking the job of Hand without beginning to consider what it truly entails until the end. Catelyn: Trusting Lysa and LF, or going back home overland. Yeah, she probably would have ended up being stalled at Dragonstone by Stannis, but at least she would have learned the truth about Jon Arryn's intentions, etc. Tyrion: Not executing Littlefinger Cersei: She's a horrible person all her life basically, and governed by her impulses, wants and desires. Pretty much any decision she ever made is by default the worst she can make in any situation, starting with kicking a cranky old woman awake to tell her fortune. But well it's her personality, and she barely has decision power over her own personality. Overall her mistakes revolve around her tendency to make enemies out of her allies: Tyrion in aCoK, the Tyrells in aFfC, and ignoring very real enemies for symbolic victories (Dragonstone and SE over protecting the Reach). But here's my choice for her - making the Iron Bank into an enemy to build a war fleet that has been and will be used to put Aegon VI on the throne. Jaime: I agree that joining the KG is one of his worst mistakes, for a similar reason than Ned. He joined the KG for the wrong reason - to fuck his sister. It's not the job description. Sansa: Blaming her sister for Joffrey's horrible behavior and somehow forgiving Cersei's demand to see a wolf killed. Arya: Not requesting Jaqen to kill Tywin Robb: not negotiating a more realistic deal with Tywin that brings peace to the Riverlands and go back North. Robb's best position was always going to be capturing Jaime and breaking the siege on Riverrun. Anything after that would just be "unsound variations" that would never lead to a checkmate. Jon: Sending Sam, Aemon and Mance's son away. It was done with the best intentions, but I don't think Mel had any intention of burning the latter two. And he needed Sam and Aemon as counseling weight against Bowen Marsh and other shortshighted men. Tywin: taking Cersei to court and keeping her at court when it was obvous that Aerys was never going to wed her to any of his sons. He lost the most important desire of his because of this: his heir. Petyr: believing that Sansa will grow up and into power without turning on him Daenerys: trusting the dream dragon, and not fully having found a balance between being a dragon who cares. When she gives in to her dragon desire to acquire the IT, innocents must pay the price, whom she then cares about and tries to rectify it, but the damage is done regardless. MMD's village and Astapor are the result of this. Theon: Staying at WF and trusting Reek. Doran: sometimes revenge is such a cold dish, the food has gone bad JonCon: Diving after Tyrion to save him? Stannis: Sitting on the incest revelation for as long as he did Roose: believing that he could ever control Ramsay Walder: The Red Wedding Barristan: Never being more engaged into the small council and KG making decisions while he was LC. The KG being who they are at the start of aGoT is partially on him. He had a power there that he did not use. Only when Ned Stark opposes Robert's plan to have Dany assassinated does he find the spine to speak up. Victarion: telling everything to the Dusky woman Aeron: thinking Balon is a great king Mace Tyrell: wanting his daughter to be queen Kevan: can't fault him for his conditions to Cersei if he's supposed to stay, after what he knows she did to his son and with Jaime. But I do fault him with persisting in gifting castles all over the realm to Lannisters. It's not just greedy, but just not smart as it spreads the forces thin. Yes, a lord of Darry, Riverrun or Rosby can levy forces from those lands, but not when those lands are obviously still in rebellion. Then it requires your own forces to occupy the areas and leaves you dependent of Tyrell forces. As a result there are forces and knights at Darry, despite his son Lancel haven given up the place and marriage, lots of forces embroiled around Riverrun (still). Kevan barely has any man of significance in KL left, and yet he still persists in Cersei's stupid decision to try and claim Rosby for the crown. Sandor: killing Mycah. He despises his brother for the senseless murderous brute he is, but in that moment was no better than his brother. I get him capturing the boy, and Cersei might still have gotten him killed, but there was no need butcher him. And going as low as his brother with that act torments him still.

I don't believe he explicitly ordered it. But he intended it with the choice of men he sent to those rooms. Tywin is smart, but he is not as rational as some readers believe him to be. The whole case of Cersei as bride for Rhaegar goes way beyond the rational. He promises her she will be the prince's wife when she's little, but she has to keep it secret. Then he believes that by the end of the tourney at Lannisport, a betrothal will be public. Cersei is 10. But Aerys tells him no, he won"t marry his son to a servant's daughter. Aerys sends Steffon Baratheon all the way to Volantis to search for a bride, but ends up shipwrecked. Tywin has Cersei brought to court at 12. Nevertheless a year later, Aerys weds Rhaegar to Elia Martell. And still, Tywin keeps Cersei at court, refusing any other marriage deals for 3 more years. He only leaves court and takes Cersei with him to the Rock, once he learns Aerys picked Jaime to be KG. This isn't rational behavior, but persistent behavior.

I didn't claim otherwise. I repeat: we do not need any explicit reveal about his journey or experience or response to it. Aka "I agree! I do NOT expect any reveal whatsoever". My point is that we don't need ANY reveal whatsoever, because we have been given all the parallel puzzle pieces from other people's experiences north of the Wall in their own POV in their own timelines. We just need to retroactively reapply it for ourselves onto Gared. That's how George writes. Through the experiences and stories of protagonists we have the puzzle pieces to reconstruct the correct narrative of minor characters at the start and who are already dead. George almost never confirm such things explicitly in any of his stories. He expects us to be smart and piece it out for ourselves with the crumb trail of world building. That's the second time that you respond to a post of mine as if I was saying or meaning something that I did not: prior you misread my post as if I was saying Gared had gone mad for real. I did no such thing. I wrote "sounded raving mad to Ned Stark". now you misread my post in which I agreed with you that we won't get a reveal, and I wasn't arguing we would. I was arguing we don't need any, because the clues are there, and we understand or at least know a bit more. I hope we can avoid another misinterpretation

I didn't say that Gared was raving mad, but "sounded raving mad" to Ned (and other northerners) He wasn't a madman nor acting it in the Prologue. And none of the other deserters that follow later with Osha aren't actually mad either, despite having seen Others and giants and wights. Though they did climb the Wall. But it does make you end up making claims that could make others decide you've gone mad: talking gates, walking through huge mouths, dead brothers on an elk with ravens, white shadows, etc. Then add sleep deprivation, hunger and thirst and it comes off as incoherent. We just have to read Sam's POV after the attack on the Fist: it becomes a jumble, memories of writing messages, letting the ravens fly, snow bears lopping someone's head off, etc. The incoherency of the shock combined with physical deprivation and fantastical elements would have made Gared sound like a madman, and eventually he would just stop trying to communicate, because it becomes rather pointless especially because he did desert. It's like Sam's moment when he just wants to be left alone and sleep in the snow. And there are hints in the Prologue that the Others aren't the sole magical actors. Treebranches grabbing for sword and sable cloak, trying to take what the Others for sure aimed to destroy (the sword and the sable cloak). Trees becoming sticky to glue Will into the tree (as an attempt to prevent him from going down). And yes a wolf howling nearby. We don't need to be told explicitly or witness Gared's explicit flight. We can infer it from other POV chapters who go through something similar. We can infer it from the slow reveals about magical actors other than the Others north of the Wall through Sam's and Bran's POVs.

He might have had a cold guide, who is not a living brother. Coldhands and a talking magical gate could be a reason why Gared sounded raving mad to those who questioned him. And why George did not include Gared's "raving mad" claims.

Another possibility, but one where he would be noticed by NW brothers. Of course Coldhands accompanying Gared to a magical talking gate might explain why he sounded raving mad to Ned Stark.

There's a black gate

Tarly butchering the levies of the Florents at Bitterbridge to prevent them from following Alester Florent's turning to Stannis says otherwise. The Hightowers are the sole ones with enough might to ignore the call of the banners by the Tyrells.

By the actions and choices in forming an alliance with the Lannisters who would make Margaery queen again. LF gives us some insight in the aftermath too.

And vice versa. Plenty of "popular with the people" monarchs or emperors got axed, while some boring ones who weren't inspiring managed to get to old age.

The point here is that nobody who's supposedly such a fan of him even considered it really. Nobody really remotely rallies behind Margaery as potential carrier of Renly's child. But we do see it happen with Jeyne. Heck, Jaime doesn't want Jeyne wed to another man before enough time has passed to prove that Jeyne is not pregnant. Even wedding her off too soon and her ending up pregnant post-Robb's death still risks people claiming that child is not of Jeyne's new planned husband, but Robb's. What Jaime recognizes is that people "want" a Stark to rally behind; that they'd even be willing to claim it of a hypothetical far too young baby to ever be his child. It is this "want" that is absent from Margaery, the Tyrells, and the men Renly was "so popular" with. No, instead the response is "well what else are we to do now?" or just more mercenary opportunism. Renly's popularty and being loved is more a myth amongst readers imo than it was a myth amongst the 64000 men that joined him as far as Bitterbridge.

Euhm may I point to Robb's bride Jeyne. We and her mother know she cannot be with child, but the possibility was enough for people remaining loyal to Robb's potential unborn child. Mace Tyrell and Maergaery didn't bother with that though. Nope. ETA: or maybe that was exactly what Margaery was up to at Bitterbridge, before LF came courting? Maybe that's why she's not a "virgin" anymore... bedded someone to get preggers asap and declare it was Renly's son

Which was exactly my point about feudal society Renly was their official liege to begin with as Storm's End was his. When he died, the Stormlanders switched to Stannis and argued exactly that to Cortnay Penrose. I will counter your claim though about "there's nothing left to be loyal to"... We see that many northern lords and even Riverlands Lords end up deeply loyal to House Stark, the Ned, and even Robb, way longer after their passing than Renly. So, your claim that loyalty becomes meaningless after death of a liege is disproven by the fact that dead lieges have inspired personal loyalty in nobles and smallfolk alike. And it is this type of loyalty that Renly dd not inspire apparently, since most of his host followed feudal loyalty rules either to Stannis or to Mace Tyrell and the king he backed. The Reach lords follow the same feudal society vassal rule, except for the Florents: they are loyal to whomever their liege Mace Tyrell backs. And Mace Tyrell didn't back Renly because he "liked" him, but because Renly was a venue to make his daughter queen. These Antler Men were more willing to die for Stannis than these so-called Renly-fans in the Reach. Ser Cortnay offered to bend the knee to any king who sent support and help protect Edric. And no, I do not take his venom to those who flocked from Renly to Stannis as meaning he was loyal to Renly, but simply playing devil's advocate, while simultaneously pointing out to Stannis that a large part of the men fighting for him are merely operating under feudal reasoning, which is not a loyalty to a person for his personality, but for his legal status as liege. Indeed they never had a chance, but do you see those men and Renly plodding through snowstorms in the North, landless? That is what imo Cat means and implies with them being Summer Knights. They don't know hardship and think of glory and fame as if war is a tourney. The mass desertion at the sight of Renly's ghost only points to superstition. The fact that his rebellion got off the ground at all was because Mace Tyrell supported it, and he did so because he saw an opportunity to make his daughter queen. And Mace Tyrell counts heavily, because the Reach could field a host of 100000 at the tme if Mace wished it. Which amounts to the exact same number of men that did not go over to Stannis after Renly's death - 4000 men. Hmmm, is George trying to make a point here? I never tried to make it out a zero-sum game. I'm merely skeptical of this "oh he was so popular and loved" argument, which is taken as some gospel truth. I do put a lot of question marks behind the depth and extent of his popularity. It seems a shallow sort of popularity, based on either opportunity (from benign to the greedy vain sort) or appearance and show. And it appears to me that Stannis has managed to acquire the service, and loyalty that Renly said he desired, at least of as many men as those who did not choose to go over to Stannis after Renly's death. The deadly snow march to Winterfell was what Renly desired, and if someone had told him at the time that his brother would get that from even 4000 men, Renly would have disbelieved it. That's why that little monologue of Renly about him being loved and popular while his brother is only feared turns out to be a lie that Renly told him. It seems to me that Renly's claims in that regard are not how we should measure either Renly or Stannis. That is my point. No, when I think of Renly's abilities, I mostly ponder the interaction between Renly and LF during the Hand's Tourney, while betting. I think of the man who showed Ned a portrait of Margaery asking whether she looked like Lyanna. I think of the man who was wise enough to fear Cersei but apparently also oblivious about who fathered her children and when informed of it, laughs it off. I see serious blind spots, an overconfidence in his own infallibility, and ultimately an opportunist. I don't think he deserved to die, but I don't see anything that would make him a good ruler either. Like Robert and like Stannis he has his own flaws, and ultimately I don't think any three of them would make a "good king".

I must correct you somewhat. The essay was not written by me or mine. I hosted the essay of BlueEyedWolf on my blog. She was inspired by a thread of @bemused here, and discussed her ideas in that thread. I supported her exploring it and as she had no blog, I offered to host the essay. BlueEyedWolf now goes by the name Blue Lemons (@LemonyBlues) and co-hosts the Silent Sisters podcast (@sisterssilent). She also has a tumblr page: thebluelemontree.tumblr.com

The smallfolk didn't know Renly. He just looked the part to them. I would never refer to this as "genuine love".

1) Why then did 4000 not go over to Stannis 2) Ser Cortnay offered to bend the knee to any king who would send him help, because he feared for Edric Storm. This was not out of loyalty to Renly or to a potential other Baratheon heir. If that was the case he could have attempted to proclaim Edric Storm as claimant and get the Tyrells to smash Stannis at the Walls of SE. 3) I did not claim that the 16000 who went over to Stannis were loyal ones. Even Stannis did not believe that or expected they would be. My point was that those 16000 were opportunistic. 4) A man who manages to get 4000 men to march in the freezing cold to a crofter's village and have them remain there as they starve without mutiny commands loyalty, period. That's why they ended up being dubbed as King's Men. On top of that both castellans of Dragonstone and Storm's End remain loyal as well. They know that Stannis will not return and basically abandoned them. Heck he even has the Antler Men inside KL working of their own volition to try and help him acquire KL. Note: I'm not claiming that Stannis is popular or better. I'm saying that Stannis proves to be far better in acquiring exactly what Renly desires from bannermen than Renly made Stannis out to be capable of to Cat before he was assassinated. And that Renly's popularity and charm didn't do much for him in that department than could be expected from his opportunistic in-laws and bannermen.

As far as we know, the Red Faith operates alongside a whole lot of other religions in most of the Free Cities. The only real zealous one is Mel, who basically seems to "melfunction"

Charisma is irrelevant in a feudal society with ruling being based primarily on birth right and birth order. It's the one thing it's actually got going: no populistic charmers that con a majority of a population at least. A person can be boring, ugly, and lacking social skills and still be king and perhaps even good at it. As for likeable: who really "likes" Renly? It seems that most people who "like" Renly are opportunists, greedy vain power seekers (Mace Tyrell), conmen like LF, and in its most benign form summer knight seeking glory and fame. The question is why do so many opportunists "like" Renly? Because they believe he is coruptable and amenable. I really don't think that's what you want in a king. Westeros already had that with Robert and other Targ kings (Aegon IV, Viserys I) It's interesting that when Renly makes this argument to Cat he adds at the end he wants loyalty, fealty and service. Of the 20000 men Renly had with him at SE, only a 5th remained loyal, aka 4000 men. The other 16000 went over to Stannis. And then the family he married into, arranges for a new marriage to the King that they were marching on with Renly, and gain offices of power on Joff's small council, and eventually Tommen's. So, I don't see Renly having had much people who were loyal to him at all. Heck even Cortnay Penrose held out on surrendering SE because of loyalty to Renly. It was for Edric Storm. There are truly only two people who loved Renly, and their love was a romantic one - Brienne and Loras. Surprisingly enough Stannis actually manages to acquire more men who are deeply loyal to him, who actually give him fealty and service. And it's not because they "fear" him. It's because they have "respect" for Stannis. And those who "love" him, do so without romantic feelings.

Why should Renly get more than what he has a legal right to? Stannis' generosity is that he will forgive his brother's illegal claim to rule as a younger brother. Given that Stannis did chop off the fingers of the man who saved him by smuggling onions, that is very generous from Stannis.

They did those things though. And at the Wall it's used to foment mutinous sentiment against a FM LC who keeps to the Old Gods.

A unique Bran moment that is Dr. Weird related is his coma dream. He gets a view of stuff happening or "looming" around his family, but his vision pans out to encompass the known world, with dragons flying in Asshai and then the heart of winter. And then he's told "now you know why you must live". It compares to Dr. Weird getting the mission to fight demons from now on, but in relation to Only Kids are Afraid of the Dark it compares to Dr. Weird sensing a disturbance "his demon sense" and then racing to the other side of the world to discover the demon Saagael. BTW I completely agree that the writing style of this early-early story is cringe (too many adjectives that try to emphasize how evil Saagael is for example). But Dr. Weird has a fun "trick up his sleeve". There are two other characters that I can relate to such potential visions: Melisandre and Dany. Mel did see something and it brought her to Dragonstone, and her goal is to fight great evil. Strange how that led her to Dragonstone instead of North, right? Dany has all sorts of dream and visions: dragon dreams, HotU, some dream against ice armored army at the Trident, etc. Dany's dragon dreams are not this Dr. Weird like "I sense new evil, let's investigate and confront it". They are about having her bring dragons back into the world, and have way more parallels to Saagael in his otherwordly tower lamenting when someone will finally bring him in the world. She does get visions of an ice armored army at the Trident, but she doesn't do much with that. And the HotU is mostly about her, not about discovering the evil in the north or Asshai.

I think this is partially related to his plans with Aegon and JonCon. I believe that Varys recruited Aurane Waters after he was captured at the Battle of the Blackwater. As Rugen he learned about Elaena Targaryen's connection to both Alyn of Hull and Daenaery Velaryon, from Rennifer Longwaters tale (which he no doubt boasted and referenced often in the last 12 years) . Elaena and Daena Targaryen were sisters, both had an affar with Aegon IV and both were daughters of a Velaryon woman. Varys and Illyrio were setting things in motion for Aegon to come out of the woodwork at Volantis and sail for Westeros with the GC. They just had expected Dany to be at Volantis as well. So, part of the plan was to acquire a war fleet of drommons for Aegon, which Aurane was to command. He was to get noticed by Cersei and then push for the building of a fleet that wasn't the Reach's. A clue that Aurane Waters knows stuff he isn't supposed to is him revealing that the GC broke their contract with Myr and have been hired by Stannis (an exiled lord to reclaim his ancestral lands) and are sailing from Volantis to Westeros. Aurane claims he's got it from sailors, but Qyburn's news contradicts this: a Myrish galley claims the GC is marching for Volantis. Aurane was correct, except for misnaming the exiled lord. But how the hell does Aurane know this, when it obviously cannot be harbor gossp. That's because Aurane is aware of the plans and/or Varys in hiding still has far better informants than Qyburn. The first three drommonds are finished fairly quickly, and is manned by poachers and thieves, and young men are made captains: young men would be less loyal to Lannisters or King Tommen, have no reputation yet to be called "turncloak" and rarely have wives and children that could be taken as hostages. And by the time Loras and Margaery get everyone to wake up over Euron attacking the Shield Islands, Cersei notes that apparently only Qyburn and Aurane were awake in the dead of night. We know what Qyburn is working on, but oh my Aurane is working day and night to get as many ships finished apparently as he can. Then when shit hits the fan, with the help of the other Varys plant Taena Merryweather (and Orys who always seems to agree with Waters?), Aurane gets Cersei's ok to put the new warships in Blackwater Bay and sails off with them after Cersei's arrest, before Kevan's arrival, before Tarly's and Mace's speedy return, and with Paxter Redwyne already having left to get to the Arbor and Oldtown. The "Lord of the Waters" pirate doesn't become a known figure on the Stepstones until after Paxter has gone through the Stepstones and that's also the time that the Volantene fleet starts dumping Golden Company and elephants on the Stepstones. Oh and for some reason everybody reports the taking of Tarth, except Jon Connington and any of the men that Airanne meets in Cape Wrath. I suspect that's because Aurane Waters sent some of the war ships to Tarth with the remainder of the Golden Company and the elephants to lie in wait for when JonCon needs them at Storm's End. IF this is true, then Dragonstone was not captured for the Lannisters, but with Aurane's involvement it was captured in preparation for Aegon and the expected Dany (who isn't with them) So, what about Davos? We learn from his chapters that he left Eastwatch with Salladhor Saan. Salla was meant to deliver Davos at White Harbor, but didn't do that. Fed up with getting nothing out of his alliance with Stannis, except for wrecked ships and cold, he drops him off at the Sisters and intends to go back to his old ways at the Stepstones. Davos lies about Salla to the Sistermen: that Salla was sent south by Stannis. He then makes his way to White Harbor and the whole realm learns of Davos' arrival there because he's allegedly been killed by "treacherous" Manderly. This gives Salla the ideal cover. As he limped to the Stepstones, he was outnumbered heavily by Aurane, but instead of fighting over it, Aurane had a proposal. With the Redwyne fleet gone, Salla could get "gold" from the coffers of the Golden Company in return for a mission. Salla sailed with his best galley that survived the storms into the cave/cove beneath Storm's End. Ser gilbert Farring who is castellan of SE for Stannis would believe that Salla is still Stannis' man. All Salla has to claim is that Stannis sent him south to smuggle food into SE so they could withstand the siege for much longer, and that he dropped Davos off at White Harbor safe and sound, but that Davos got killed wasn't his fault. In this way Salla becomes a Trojan horse with food for SE, helps the GC get rid of loyal Gilbert Farring, and the second in command is the exact same second in command of Cortnay Penrose (also an Elaena Targaryen descendant btw) who surrendered SE as soon as his commander was dead. Because of the timeline of getting Salla to SE at the right time, in relation to Aegon's return, alongside Aurane Waters having a war fleet built for Aegon on Cersei's dime (her breaking the contract with the IB is icing on the cake) and capture Dragonstone, Davos' story had no more than 3 chapters, including one where someone not of White Harbor could gossip that Salla was sailing south for Stannis (while he wasn't). Note: if true, then unwittingly Davos has already said and done stuff at the Sisters and White Harbor that contributed in losses for his king. So, in that sense he's not just eyes. Meanwhile George couldn't write more for Davos in relation to Rickon, because he held back on a reveal on what has been happening at Eastwatch around the time that Bowen Marsh ends up choosing to assassinate Jon.