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Unexpected outcome of the Battle of Winterfell?


Nucky Thompson

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It has been speculated in excruciating details as to how exactly the Battle of Winterfell would play out. There have been suggestions about Stannis prevailing, about Roose prevailing, and so on. Furthermore, it has to be noted that the editing of ADwD has moved the actual battle in TWoW. However, maybe not the entire battle has been moved. Perhaps the original version would have the battle start and then cut off in the middle leaving us with a similar type of a cliffhanger.



What seems likely to me, though, is that the Battle of Winterfell will not end with a clear winner. This doesn't mean that Stannis

fakes his death

or Roose retreats in an orderly fashion to the Dreadfort. What I think is possible, and propose as a theory, is that this seemingly innocuous in the larger scheme of things battle will actually be the onset of the War vs. the Others. The story has gone on too far ahead only to begin to approach the pending invasion of the Others. No, the pieces have to be in place already. With the developments at the Wall as of end-ADwD and the two opposing armies at Winterfell, it seems that the larger Checkov's guns are about to begin firing.



What are the clues? Let's analyze the conventional outcomes of the Battle of Winterfell:


1. Stannis wins, Boltons are defeated, Stannis enjoys the natural heating system of Winterfell for 10 years of winter. Doesn't move the story forward very much now, does it?


2. Roose prevails, Stannis' head is on a spike, etc. etc. Northern resistance seems futile, or even if successful will lead to the perishing of both Boltons and said resistance. The North is left even leaderless. Yeah, there is the possibility of Rickon returning on a white unicorn, but again, he would simply be left without much in terms of assets to do anything of importance.



If, however, during the course of the battle (probably after the skirmish with Manderly, the Freys and Ramsey, which everybody assumes will be won decisively by Stannis), just as Stannis approaches to join the Umber in his siege of the castle, the Others do, finally, arrive in force and the rules of the game change very much. In such a case we could actually expect the Boltons and Stannis to join forces against the common enemy. They could even hole up together in Winterfell as giving open battle to ice zombies and their masters seems rather unwise. What this would accomplish is a huge plot twist which could probably be the reason for it to originally be intended for TWoW and the editing reasons to only have pushed the initial stages of the battle to TWoW as well. Whatever the case, methinks we can agree that neither Roose's, nor Stannis' storyline seems ready to be ending just now. Stannis - for obvious reasons - has to interact once again with his main rivals for the Iron Throne, while Roose has a lot more reveals pending - at least in regard to why he burnt the book at Harrenhall, what are his real plans for the Bolton succession, etc. etc.



What such a development would entail, is that either both Stannis and Roose end up on the same - villain - side and one of them becomes the new Night King; or both of them end up fighting "the good fight" and resisting the invasion of the Others together (what a dialogue would those two have). If we assume that Martin's leftist views make him a fan of Hegel and Marx, then such an outcome of the battle would certainly follow the dialectic formula of thesis+antithesis=synthesis with the clash of the two opposites producing a third and independent result. If the aim is to move the story forward as fast as possible, it would also make sense with combining the seemingly unrelated dynastic struggle in the North and the looming Others ex Machina all the while surprising readers and subverting traditional fantasy tropes as GRRM's agenda seemingly suggests.


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The Wall is a red herring at this point in the story. It already served its purpose to deter Mance's invasion long enough for Stannis to break them and for Jon to come to the conclusion that an alliance with their fellow humans from beyond the Wall is necessary. The very evolution in thinking that was provoked by this threat was the plot obstacle which had to be overcome and it is what ultimately caused the subsequent Ides of Marsh. Does anyone really think that the Others will be standing below the Wall swinging around in anger their transparent blades? No, by their very definition of a graceful and unstoppable force, they are bound to somehow circumvent the Wall and march right past it. Whether it would be due to the chaos at the Wall, a Deus ex Horn of Joramun, the tunnels below the Wall, Cotter Pyke's fleet, or even Aeron's expedition, remains to be seen. The overall result is clear, though. And it may even be that they simply materialize wherever and whenever there is a possibility to do so, and the Wall simply didn't allow it so far, but for some reason it no longer does so. Or do you really think that the Others will pile up wights until they reach the top of the Wall as in 'World War Z'? So Stannis and Roose are in for a rude surprise that is likely to put their war to a sudden halt.


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That's a pretty cool theory that I haven't heard of s far.


Personally, it would feel rushed to me if the Others interfere with that battle. While I agree fully well that the Others will overcome the wall (their whole existance would be an epic - and unsatisfying - red herring if they were stopped by an 8000 year old structure), I do think that this will get significant screentime. But for the others to turn up at the battle of Ice they would have to pretty much bring down the wall offscreen, because that battle has to happen early in TWOW (should have happened already in ADWD - seriously if I there is another half book lead-up to that battle I might drowm myself in a fished-out frozen lake).


The half-book build-up towards the cliffhanger battle between to very well established adversaries and with numerous hints at backstabbings would also be diminished if the result of the battle is determined by a factor outside of those introduced so far.



So while I quite like the idea of the Others messing up things in the stroy line, I don't like if they would interfere with this particular thread, so I expect GRRM takes a different route.


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That is true if we assume that the Battle of Winterfell will be decided swiftly. A number of complications may happen, especially given Roose's calculating nature and Stannis' relentlessness. The battle, or shall we say, the campaign, may drag on for weeks. Even if he overcomes the sortie, Stannis still has to besiege the castle if we discount the somewhat silly suggestions that Manderly will let Stannis' host inside carrying his sword. They could still attempt something like that under the guise of Karstarks, but Roose is way too careful and has nothing to gain by letting any Karstarks inside. Moreover, it is possible that Mance Rayder somehow gains control of Winterfell, forcing Roose to retreat, or whatever, and then simply leaves Stannis to freeze his lawful ass in the snow.



My theory is not that while Stannis yells at his army: "Come with me and seize this castle!", the Others crawl behind him on Ice Spiders. Instead, it suggests that while he and Roose are testing who is more stubborn, the Others crawl on the scene riding Ice Spiders. What is more, with his own experience being besieged, Stannis will have a certain, let's say, common ground with the occupants of Winterfell, despite wanting to behead them. It could even turn out that he finds himself besieged by a powerful enemy (on Ice Spiders), but without an entrance for Davos' onions. Or is one there?


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Interesting thought, but I don't see that many wights/walkers getting snuck past the Wall's enchantment before it gets blown down by the HoJ.



The conventional path stands:



Stannis wins the Battle of Ice, takes Winterfell. Roose and Ramsey, if they survive, are on the run. I give better odds of Roose surviving than Ramsey; he can retreat to the Dreadfort, and negotiations between him and Stannis can add a complicating factor in the fight against the Others.



The Others will not let Stannis have 10 years to warm up in Winterfell, nor would he stay longer than needed to recover his strength and head south to deal with the Lannisters. The Wall has to fall, quickly, and the Others rush south. Stannis, about to head south, hears of the disaster, possible loss of his family, and realizes he has to stay to act as a roadblock. A pretty active plot to me.


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Martin loves to bring up unexpected parties to big battles. Like Renly's Ghost at Blackwater.



In Winterfell, there are many options to turn the tide of battle:



- Rickon, Davos and the Skagosi


- Dagmer's Ironborn from Torrhen's Square


- The Vale w/ Sansa and LF


- The Brotherhood Without Banners


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  • 2 weeks later...

There's a fairly recent thread nearby asserting that the effects of winter depicted in the latter parts of ASOIAF, seem to be most intense around Winterfell. Combine this with the idea of the Others crashing the party: interesting. The Others seem to bring Winter with them or visa versa.

Were the others to operate covertly around WF, building up numbers before ... , that would aid GRRM's apparent intent to portray them as thoughtful creatures with gray characteristics rather than purely evil beings.

GRRM can make an Other's incursion south of the Wall plausible. The Wildlings have been doing so for 1000's of years.

Also, the Others may indeed know that no Stark is in WF, and they might know something of the supernatural matters regarding WF and Starks. Then, if such exist, taking WF in this way might prove a valuable opportunity to seize before other preparations are complete, those that precede full, open invasion.

This us an interesting and plausible idea, but ultimately a choice of GRRM's. If so, then might there be some supernatural something occur in Mereen too, as they seem to be occurring in parallel? No such ideas come to mind now.

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There's a fairly recent thread nearby asserting that the effects of winter depicted in the latter parts of ASOIAF, seem to be most intense around Winterfell. Combine this with the idea of the Others crashing the party: interesting. The Others seem to bring Winter with them or visa versa.

Were the others to operate covertly around WF, building up numbers before ... , that would aid GRRM's apparent intent to portray them as thoughtful creatures with gray characteristics rather than purely evil beings.

GRRM can make an Other's incursion south of the Wall plausible. The Wildlings have been doing so for 1000's of years.

Also, the Others may indeed know that no Stark is in WF, and they might know something of the supernatural matters regarding WF and Starks. Then, if such exist, taking WF in this way might prove a valuable opportunity to seize before other preparations are complete, those that precede full, open invasion.

This us an interesting and plausible idea, but ultimately a choice of GRRM's. If so, then might there be some supernatural something occur in Mereen too, as they seem to be occurring in parallel? No such ideas come to mind now.

Dragons seem pretty supernatural, and there are two of them there, and someone with a dragon horn. I've read threads guessing that the dragons will ultimately turn something that starts like an easy win for team Barristan into a real mess.

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  • 1 year later...

Martin loves to bring up unexpected parties to big battles. Like Renly's Ghost at Blackwater.

In Winterfell, there are many options to turn the tide of battle:

- Rickon, Davos and the Skagosi

- Dagmer's Ironborn from Torrhen's Square

- The Vale w/ Sansa and LF

- The Brotherhood Without Banners

Pregnant Jeyne with the Blackfish. Nymeria and her forces (The Wolfs).

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Bolton would have no knowledge of the Others' approach and with the progression of Winter, the only means with which he would learn of their presence is through Stannis' troops who would most likely be at the gates of Winterfell, after being pushed back by the Others. With that said, with your idea as a basis, there are two logical ways that the plot would continue; Bolton would dismiss it as part of a scheme and deny them access (perhaps even attack them) or he, being as eccentric as he is, believe them but deny Stannis any assistance and use him as fodder whilst he plans his escape. Of course these aren't the only two divergences that the story could follow but they would all have a similar basis.



Just realised this thread is over a year old... wow.


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It is said that the Freys and the Manderlys would not coordinate their forces, and heavily implied they won't even fight on the same side. In the Theon preview chapter, it's also implied that Stannis has a plan regarding "natural defenses" - which I presume to involve the frozen-over-but-swiss-cheesed lake next to the village. Unless the wrong forces happen to attack across the lake, I think it's quite given that Stannis will get away with the victory this time.



Ramsay might still be a concern, though. If the Pink Letter is not a forgery, it's reasonable to believe that at some point Ramsay will believe he has won the battle, even if he might have lost. If the Letter is a forgery... well, we have a multitude of different threads spanning the options, which is to say we have no clue whatsoever.



Either way, a Stannis victory doesn't necessarily involve taking and holding Winterfell. He might decide that he needs to move, since Winterfell is no place to rest - as Roose and Ramsay have recently discovered, it simply can not sustain an army in the long run, and it's starting to become pretty cold and snowy. Basic military history dictates that an army needs to move to stay alive, this goes double and then some in winter. This means that Stannis shouldn't need to take Winterfell for the Boltons to fall. He doesn't even need to battle them. His forces would be better spent taking the Dreadfort or something, while the Boltons freeze/starve to death in Winterfell (or fall to an ambush on their way back home, or a combination of both - it would be satisfying to see Ramsay get his own taste of what it feels like to be kicked and locked out of his home in a blizzard).



At any rate, Stannis seems to have the Manderlys in his back, and Manderly has a bunch of ships (and there is a Patchface prophecy involving mermen - Manderly's sigil). This should make Stannis quite mobile, as long as he gets out of the bad weather. Question is, where could he go?


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In my opinion the whole point of the battle of Winterfell is for Stannis to fake his death and defeat whilst also taking out a large number of Freys and Bolton men.



Ramsey will go to Roose and tell him of his victory. They all celebrate and congratulate themselves. Then they will open the gates, to wipe out the stragglers or leave for the Dreadfort, and get completely slaughtered.



There will be two battles, one big, showy, fake battle which the Boltons win and a surgical, surprise attack which wipes them out.


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Nucky..I think you're leaving out another major possible surprise.. (I know, here I go again). We've already seen all the necessary movements and connections for this surprise detailed or hinted at elsewhere in the books.


1) The resistance ( or "underground" ;) if you will ) operating against the Boltons is actually led ,or at least co-led by Benjen who is in Winterfell (the HM) - after having been helped by the Children (as Bran suggests in AGoT). Consequently, he's had the opportunity to have learned secrets regarding the crypts and any tunnels / passages.


2) I think Arya's escape from the holdfast in ACoK replicates, in miniature, the use of the passage to/from the crypts.. in her case the tunnel is used to exit.. at WF, it could (and I think,will) be used to enter.(Even the level of the crypts that we see is described as being "vast". GRRM has cofirmed it extends well beyond the perimeter of WF , and there are more levels yet unseen)


3) Even before Roose actually came north, the plan would have been to move men into WF on the QT, and do as Roose does later - get a sizeable force in there first, then repair the gates, etc. (When it's learned that Roose plans to hold the wedding there ,the entrance to the crypts, left open by Bran & co., are blocked again)


4) Manderly (staunch loyalist) has been gathering forces and ferrying them up the White Knife,bit by bit (as he did in ACoK)


5) House Cerwyn (severely depleted by Roose during Robb's campaign) sits conveniently between the White knife and WF. Jonelle Cerwyn is not in WF for the wedding , yet was in Barrowton to sign the "wedding invitations". What is she doing? I'd suggest, overseeing the use of her family seat as a staging area for the forces sent by Manderly.


6) Stannis is the enemy of the northmen's enemy. Therefore, they're willing to see him as their ally, but not so much as their overlord. He is to be helped, but not advised of their plans.They want to be in a position of strength before formalizing any binding agreement with him (or fully bending the knee).


7) When Mance appears on a mission to rescue "Arya" , he is helped into WF (Manderly's singers left at or sent back home.. "Myrtle" added to his party?), but he is not fully apprised of their plan either.(Though he might know more than Stannis)


8) Barbrey Dustin arranges for the crypt entrance to be unblocked, and the HM appears. In the sounding horns and the drums of the Umbers, we may see signals of readiness passing between them and the HM.


9) Theon, just before his escape , calls to our minds attackers trying to battle their way up a spiral staircase , the stairwell in the crypts "spirals down".


So, the north will try to take WF from within, with the northerners that are supposedly allies of Roose turning against him, with many more entering through the crypts.


What I feel is developing is - that Stannis will win his battle; that Ramsay will go after "Arya" toward CB, and Roose may have to make a not-so-orderly retreat to the Dreadfort.


Stannis will be given guest right at WF, and probably some support if, or when he moves south, but WF will not be his to bestow on anyone.


I think this is more likely to be the surprise element than an appearance by the Others (at this point and at this particular battle).


At the wall , I believe we readers have been pulled out not only in mid-action , but in mid-POV . In other words, I think Jon is down , but not out - and he will be back up off the mat before the count is up. He'll take part in sorting out the mess... and don't forget, wildling healing should also be available to him, as needed.


If I'm right, this changes the situation somewhat. Jon would definitely have numbers on his side... Ser Patrek may be dead , but he had broken the most sacred law, Guest Right.. perhaps on Selyse's instructions, or with her blessing. This would create an unpleasant situation for Stannis (laws should be made of iron, not pudding).. and for Mel. Does Mel not care about breaking guest right ? ... and / or, how did she not see Patrek's intentions in advance ? Selyse and Mel could find themselves not so much Jon's guests, but rather, in his custody until Stannis returns.


I sort of suspect we'll see the next assault from the Weeper before the assault of the Others .. depending on how many of the Weeper's people remain un-wightified. As long as they're still lighting fires, the signs are good , but if Mallister notices the fires going out before any attack is made ...uh-oh...

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  • 2 weeks later...

I can certainly see the Others circumventing the Wall entirely, following the path of Grendel and pouring out of the crypts of Winterfell (now that there is no Stark there to mystically defend it with their living blood). They will totally exterminate anyone there, so that will be the end of Roose and his lot. Mance worked out something of the sort and therefore 'sent for' a Stark without letting slip the secret by way of the Pink Letter, but we all know what happened. The Others ravage the north, including all Stannis forces, and start to head on southward, killing all the way. I cannot see there being enough interest from all the other kingdoms if there are just some northern battles, it MUST sweep Westeros to be a truly existential crisis of the magnitude of the Long NIght.



Then the resurrected (or something) Jon sets off with his wildlings in pursuit and at the Neck they meet Howland Reed (who divulges A LOT of important info). Jon is declared King of Westeros, or the North, and/or even beyond the Wall (whatever, it doesn't matter really), catches up with news of Dany (from Sam in some way?). He needs dragons and/or a flaming sword to get the job done. So off he goes to find Dany, who has arrived/ is just arriving …… After that I have too many ideas to decide on one.



How about it?


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  • 4 weeks later...

Well, to continue an old thread, we now have some more knowledge in the form of GRRM's first drafts of the ASoIaF storyline, as he had them pitched to his publisher and as have been circulating the internet and this forum. One can't fail but notice that neither a Roose or a Stannis character make any moves to be remembered in that outline. It could mean that those two remarkable characters are but a filler and the Battle of Winterfell is their convenient cue to leave the scene? Could it be that the story loses so much of its potential at this juncture?


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