Who poisoned the locusts?

[Lost Melnibonean]

Probably a disgruntled Alabama fan

Ha! Or an excited OSU fan...

[Lost Melnibonean]

It is the Shavepate. Hizdahr was Dany's king, and challenged the Shavepate's power in Meereen, removing him form his post. If both Dany and Hizdahr were poisoned and died, then the SHavepate could pin the blame on the Yunkai'i telling Dany's supporters that they betrayed her, and then he would lead an unexpected attack on the Yunkai'i. He would then be the one in charge of Meereen.

I don't think it was the Harpy or Hizdahr. They had gotten what they wanted in the peace treaty, and without Dany they would have no one to control the dragons. Even the Shavepate admits that the peace was real until the events of the pit. I also don't think it was the Harpy since it is the most obvious presented culprit. We were led into believing the Lannisters poisoned Jon Arryn as well only for it to be revealed that Lysa did it at Petyr's behest. Lysa was the one who accused the Lannisters of poisoning Jon Arryn.

Absolutely. I settled on the Shavepate while pondering over the identity of the PS...

"Soon comes the pale mare, and after her the others. Kraken and dark flame, lion and griffin, the suns son and the mummers dragon. Trust none of them. Remember the Undying. Beware the perfumed seneschal."

--Remember the Undying. All of these actors are seeking to use Dany. I noticed in my latest reread that Reznak squealed with fear or something like that in Dance when Dany considered striking Meereen for the west. Was Reznak the perfumed seneschal seeking to use Dany to further his interests in Meereen? He was clearly aligned with Hizdar, wasn't he? And Galazza was too. I think most of us have believed from the get go that the trio were the behind the Sons of the Harpy to drive Dany out. But I am wondering whether the three were just seeking to use Dany to further their own interests. Hizdar's interest is obvious, as is Reznak. The Grace's interest is much less so. But I am now thinking that the trio were employing the Sons of the Harpy to pressure Dany into concessions, not to drive her out. The Shavepate as the assassin makes sense in this light too. He had aligned himself with Dany and stood against Hizdar and the other Great Masters. He set Hizdar up as the fall guy and he could have rallied the Brazen Beasts the companies of freedmen and the Unsullied to war against the Great Masters.

[Ygrain]

And, btw, if that poison was intended for Dany, it was inherently hamfisted and idiotic (i.e. not the work of a mastermind). Dany doesn't eat things like that. To poison Dany, anyone who isn't completely blind would have poisoned the figs and olives-- she's been "nibbling" on them prodigiously for 3 books. Which speaks to a poisoner who isn't tremendously brilliant, a complete feint to frame someone, or a different target than Dany. ETA-- I just mean that even this is very open-ended even in terms of targeting the victim.

Would he have the chance, though? That would require some servant in the palace to cooperate.

Speaking of the Shavepate's motives - while his power did come from Dany, I don't think we should rely on not wanting her hurt. He seems very much in opposition to the old customs and she didn't go far enough to eradicate them. If she were dead, it would be much easier to rally her men to attack.

[Shebara]

I think Shavepate and locusts is a rather convincing theory, well done!

But I have the thought that the Harpy, still wanting to get rid of Dany and restoring the old customs (slavery etc.) in Mereen could have a hand in this...convincing Shavvy that he would be redeemed, pardoned, rewarded when the Harpy would rule again.

Danaerys would be dead, Hizdhar (offspring of Shavvys rival family) accused, the peace history....and the Harpy would conspire with the Yunkai to reinstall the old regime...with Shavvy in one of the leading positions again.

[bemused]

Oh, the insidious blot..well written , but...

The peace was never real, for all the reasons others have laid out admirably upthread... Voalantis..Qarth , etc ..all the major players in the slave trade have reason to collaborate..

The Shavepate certainly appears to want to take down the other great houses and no doubt has some good reason for wanting vengeance on them.He may feel that Dany will move on eventually and hopes to fill the vacuum she leaves , but though his true ultimate agenda is not yet apparent , I doubt it's to restore the pre-Dany status quo.

GG and Hizdahr are the most likely culprits and the locusts were not meant to kill , but to cause Dany to abort if she should be pregnant by Daario ( and there are many hints that she was ).

The GG tried to shame her into casting off Daario in open court. They tried to get her to submit to an "examination" by Hizdahr's female relations..in the temple. Their medical experts are associated with the temple.. We've seen no other Meereenese weddings , so we don't know if this is actually a tradition or not.. It's not mentioned in front of the Shavepate or anyone else who could refute it in open conversation. For all we know , the ritual is an invention of Hizdahr and the GG ... If it's real, the special cake that only ladies can eat may also be an abortant.. insurance for the house of the bridegroom.

War and peace aside, there's also a move on to take Dany down by assimilation... gradually stripping her of power. I think Hazzea was a set-up , Dany's sympathy for children being well known. And it did result in her chaining up 2 of her dragons... Here , I have to say that the Dragons have so far shown no preference for human flesh ..they'll eat it if it's there , as in the case of Barsena and the boar.. but they don't seem to choose it. Near the end, when the Dothraki find Dany and Drogon , Drogon bypasses the easier ,closer prey of the horse and rider to fly farther and opt for a riderless horse.

Hizdahr tells Dany he hopes they have conceived on their wedding night. While I'm sure that's not true, since it's before the locusts, I'm sure they hope she'll conceive ASAP afterwards. Hizdahr doesn't want to be consort , but king..co-ruler . Perhaps then the uncomfortable 8000 unsullied will come to recognize his authority equally, or give their loyalty to Dany's child , if anything should go "wrong" in childbirth, or if Dany should tragically succumb to a "fever" , or something.

So no.. I don't see the Shavepate in the frame , and the peace was never going to be real unless Dany should capitulate entirely , immediately or over time , allow her dragons to be killed and herself be putty in Hizdahr's hands...and even then she would not be safe , since she would no longer be needed.

It's a variation on a universal theme.. Lysa's moon tea.. Alys Karstark's fears for her own future ..Tywin's plan in marrying Tyrion to Sansa .. The Boltons and poor Jeyne Poole.. and on and on. Dynastic politics.

ETA: Of course this means that anyone else eating a few locusts would only suffer some temporary discomfort , but anyone who was pregnant would lose their child.The poisoner would not have imagined anyone would eat the whole bowlful themselves.

[Iona]

Well, this gets interesting. Never heard of/read of an abortification angle before - if it's true then Strong Belwas had one hell of a miscarriage... The wedding customs being laid out so specifically did seem a bit odd, so I'm not ready to rule this out.

I'd love to hear more on the hints of Dany being pregnant - I for one believe she had a miscarriage after leaving Dragonstone, but if she appeared to be pregnant before I've missed it completely. (Happens to me IRL too, so no surprise.) It's not like we get a scene where Dany notices that all her tokars seem to have shrank from the waist, and when she was pregnant with Rhaego her handmaids were quick to notice it.

[Fire Eater]

Oh, the insidious blot..well written , but...

The peace was never real, for all the reasons others have laid out admirably upthread... Voalantis..Qarth , etc ..all the major players in the slave trade have reason to collaborate.

The Shavepate certainly appears to want to take down the other great houses and no doubt has some good reason for wanting vengeance on them.He may feel that Dany will move on eventually and hopes to fill the vacuum she leaves , but though his true ultimate agenda is not yet apparent , I doubt it's to restore the pre-Dany status quo.

[Peace was] a sham.Not at first, no. The Yunkai’i were afraid of our queen, of her Unsullied, of her dragons. This land has known dragons before. Yurkhaz zo Yunzak had read his histories, he knew. Hizdahr as well. Why not a peace?

As I stated before, the Shavepate doesn't want a pre-Dany status quo but to use her death to rally her men to attack the Yunkai'i for killing her. He would then be the ruler of Meereen.

Besides, Hizdahr and the Harpy are the obvious presented culprits meaning they likely aren't, like the Lannisters being the culprits being Jon Arryn's detah only for it to be the accuser, Lysa.

[Lady Kelsey]

Probably a disgruntled Alabama fan

Haha! I must say.. I was rooting for Auburn. Despite their follies: I'm an LSU FAN!

Anyway, the article shed new light for me. I agree Shavepate seems likely

[Chaircat Meow]

Exactly what the Shavepate was hoping to achieve has always left me baffled. Yes, he got what he wanted out of the poisoning but I can't figure out how he could anticipate this result if he was indeed the poisoner.* And that suggests he wasn't but then Hizdahr as poisoner makes no sense to me, unless we suppose utter stupidity.

For this reason I think it was the Shavepate, even though I don't understand the mechanics of the plot. Every permutation seems to have something wrong with it, especially because of the type of food that was poisoned. But there are strong grounds to rule out Hizdahr and the GG providing we assume basic political intelligence. It is much too soon for them to try and kill Dany.

They need, at an absolute minimum, months to use their leverage over Dany to strengthen their hold over the army in Meereen in order for Hizdahr's position as king to mean something when Dany is put to death. Years, along with a child would be more ideal. Removing Dany now and in a way that implicates them seems mind numbingly stupid, so I feel 95% certain they are not behind it.**

The only way they even slightly make sense as poisoners is if they wanted Yunkai and her allies to know they killed Dany, in the hopes of a reward in the form of support for Hizdahr retaining his position. And that's a big stretch IMO.

I hope all this confusion isn't GrrM trying to be too clever for his own good ...

*Unless being able to pin Dany's death on Hizdahr was just icing on the cake, and he merely wanted both king and queen gone so he could assume control of the unsullied and freedmen in the chaos. Maybe his poisoner could only get to the locusts in time, and would have poisoned the figs and olives too if he/she could.

Maybe it didn't matter whether the king or the queen died, as both situations were liable to lead to the end of the peace. Maybe the poisoning taking place at the pits was coincidental because Shakaz just happened to have an agent in Hizdahr's kitchen, an advantage he might have undertaken to secure when he learned of the proposed marriage. Maybe not.

**Although if it was a slow acting poison they weren't necessarily implicated, admittedly.

[Nymeria's Vendetta]

Well, this gets interesting. Never heard of/read of an abortification angle before - if it's true then Strong Belwas had one hell of a miscarriage... The wedding customs being laid out so specifically did seem a bit odd, so I'm not ready to rule this out.

I'd love to hear more on the hints of Dany being pregnant - I for one believe she had a miscarriage after leaving Dragonstone, but if she appeared to be pregnant before I've missed it completely. (Happens to me IRL too, so no surprise.) It's not like we get a scene where Dany notices that all her tokars seem to have shrank from the waist, and when she was pregnant with Rhaego her handmaids were quick to notice it.

[Nymeria's Vendetta]

The only "sign" Dany was pregnant was Reznak says "I think the prospect of your wedding has given you a glow. Oh my shining queen!" After a night with Daario

[Iona]

The only "sign" Dany was pregnant was Reznak says "I think the prospect of your wedding has given you a glow. Oh my shining queen!" After a night with Daario

Not really convinced yet. Could be just regular "after-glow"... :) I really hope bemused pops back and sheds more light on this.

[Ygrain]

Not sure about the after-thing, but in pregnancy, women do tend to look better - especially when carrying a boy, or so they say. It was annoying like hell, to play mysterious when everyone just glanced at me, complimented my good looks and said, "it'll be a boy, right?"

[The Crow's Third Eye]

I still commit to one particular poisoner, I still have multiple suspects. Hizdhar, The Green Grace, The Shavepate, Yunkish Sellsword (on behalf of Bloodbeard) one of Dany's cupbearers on behalf of one of the Slaver families. There are so many suspects although I will admit that Hizdhar GG and Shavepate remain the most likely. All the carefully laid out arguments have yet to sway me and I suspect that I wont be convinced until Winds

[Jasta11]

And, btw, if that poison was intended for Dany, it was inherently hamfisted and idiotic (i.e. not the work of a mastermind). Dany doesn't eat things like that. To poison Dany, anyone who isn't completely blind would have poisoned the figs and olives-- she's been "nibbling" on them prodigiously for 3 books. Which speaks to a poisoner who isn't tremendously brilliant, a complete feint to frame someone, or a different target than Dany. ETA-- I just mean that even this is very open-ended even in terms of targeting the victim.

I think we need to focus on that for a moment; whoever did it, the poisoning was incredibly half-assed. I mean, it used food that Dany didn't even like for cripes's sake! This is a basic error that's incredibly unlikely for a semi-competent poisoner to make. This leads me to 2 scenarios;

-The poisoner is an idiot. Simple to explain, it was half-assed attempt to kill/incapacitate (more on that later) someone. Dany is the most likely target by far.

-There was no precise target for the poisoning. The bowl was put in there, and whatever happened, chaos would break out. Dany eats and dies? Unsullied very probably make a shitstorm. Hizdar eats it and dies? Peace is shattered as the Harpy killing recommence in earnest. Both eat and die? Same as previous. Dany eats and is incapacitated? Hizdar ends up being in disgrace and the peace is incredibly compromised.

Scenario 1 points towards no one in particular. The Shavepate seems way too competent to botch a poisoning like that (albeit that could be mere appearances). Hizdar is not noted for being a genius, but it's probable that a move such as this is backed up by the Harpy, whoever it is, and it has also proven to be much too subtle to show such crass incompetence.

Scenario 2 points to the Shavepate, IF we assume he's a Littlefinger-like figure. The chaos surely benefits him one way or the other if all he wants is a peace broken. However, that scenario is still sketchy as hell and has lots of unknowables; how will the Unsullied react if Dany dies? How will Barristan react, and how can the Shavepate trust that he'll be able to sway him? What will the reaction of the Harpy be if Hizdar dies, won't they immediately suspect the Shavepate along with Dany? What happens to the Shavepate himself if Dany is no longer there to protect him? And wouldn't both Hizdar and Dany dying point to the Shavepate as an incredibly obvious suspect to all involved? There are way too many ways this plan can backfire spectacularily for it to be a good one.

Basically, whatever the goal was, it seems the poisoner quite simply didn't think this through. In comparison to the other poisonings we saw in the series, this one looks incredibly hasty and half-assed however you look at it. Which doesn't point out to anyone in the end IMO.

Second point is the strength. The only indication we have is that Belwas ate an entire bowl of locusts and still didn't die, albeit he was close to death afterwards. So I'm not certain about the poison being non-lethal; Belwas is noted for having a prodigious constitution, he eats like an ox and is still more agile and most people. I'm not sure that a poison that can being down and almost kill such a man is intended to be non-lethal for the waifish Dany. He is almost litterally five times as much as her. I'm no expert on the subject of poisons (or am I? :ninja:) but I'm pretty certain the vast difference in constitution has an impact. So it's very hard to know if the poison was meant to be non-lethal. One thing that seems fairly certain is that, if it's non-lethal, it cannot possibly be Hizdar or the Harpy, because that would make them criminally stupid, which I don't believe they are.

Third, Butterbumps raises something I had forgotten; Hizdar loves that kind of food and yet he doesn't even nibble at them. Hell, he takes the pain of pointing out the locusts to Dany, then... ignores them? That seems unlikely. Why would he do this if he has no reason to believe the food is poisoned at all? It's not like he's shy of doing things Dany doesn't like/approve of. So that's a point against old Hiz.

So basically, I don't think we can categorically say it's either Hizdar or the Shavepate. Both scenarios are possible. The article makes a convincing argument but it's not enough to definitely sway me.

[Sansa_Stark]

I don't think its HIdzahr.

[Chaircat Meow]

I can't remember if anyone actually makes a note of the fact Hizdahr refuses one of his favourite foods but tried to push it on Dany. The Shavepate probably did, but my memory is bad for this.

However, if people are aware of Dany and Hizdahr's culinary preferences that would, all other things being equal, point towards the locust poisoner wanting Hizdahr dead and Dany safe. Hizdahr is the one liable to eat the locusts, because he likes them, while Dany won't because she doesn't like locusts.

Moreover, the poison is weak enough that it takes a good number of locusts to kill someone of average constitution. That's fine if your victim will eat a lot of them, but Dany won't be doing that even if she is feeling adventurous. So, even if she does set aside her dates and stuff, and tries a locust, she won't die. Therefore, if you assume a would be poisoner has selected which food to poison with care, the fact the locusts were poisoned suggests the Shavepate was trying to kill Hizdahr to break the peace, and spare the Queen.

Sadly this means there is a great coincidence involved in Hizdahr's refusal of locusts. Now, it could be that, on that day, Hizdahr just did not fancy his locusts. You can have a day where you don't want food you normally like. Still, it is a weird coincidence if indeed the locusts were actually meant for Hizdahr. Of course, this could be GrrM's idea. Hizdahr's stomach is just a random factor that throws us off the scent, and makes him look guilty.

Although there is also the fact if Shakaz did want to poison Hizdahr he had no obvious fall guy, unless he hoped Dany would fulfil this role. Although more likely the finger would point at him. Maybe in the ensuing chaos and breakdown of the peace he felt this wouldn't matter.

[Treemaster]

Two thoughts:

1. I don't think the poisoner is Hizdahr either, but why isn't there more suspicion of Rezank mo Reznak? In the very first paragraph in which he is introduced in A Dance With Dragons, the text notes (I'm paraphrasing) that he smells like perfume.That made me think of the perfumed seneschal. Doubtless others with a better memory of the plot can explain why he has not identified as a suspect, as I am very early in my first re-read of A Dance With Dragons, but that line really stood out to me on that reread.

2. Any chance the locusts aren't poisoned at all, and this is just garden variety food poisoning? Eating bugs doesn't seem like that great an idea in general. I have no evidence whatsoever to support this theory, but do we have any conclusive evidence to rule it out?

[Sansa_Stark]

I can't remember if anyone actually makes a note of the fact Hizdahr refuses one of his favourite foods but tried to push it on Dany. The Shavepate probably did, but my memory is bad for this.

However, if people are aware of Dany and Hizdahr's culinary preferences that would, all other things being equal, point towards the locust poisoner wanting Hizdahr dead and Dany safe. Hizdahr is the one liable to eat the locusts, because he likes them, while Dany won't because she doesn't like locusts.

Moreover, the poison is weak enough that it takes a good number of locusts to kill someone of average constitution. That's fine if your victim will eat a lot of them, but Dany won't be doing that even if she is feeling adventurous. So, even if she does set aside her dates and stuff, and tries a locust, she won't die. Therefore, if you assume a would be poisoner has selected which food to poison with care, the fact the locusts were poisoned suggests the Shavepate was trying to kill Hizdahr to break the peace, and spare the Queen.

Sadly this means there is a great coincidence involved in Hizdahr's refusal of locusts. Now, it could be that, on that day, Hizdahr just did not fancy his locusts. You can have a day where you don't want food you normally like. Still, it is a weird coincidence if indeed the locusts were actually meant for Hizdahr. Of course, this could be GrrM's idea. Hizdahr's stomach is just a random factor that throws us off the scent, and makes him look guilty.

Although there is also the fact if Shakaz did want to poison Hizdahr he had no obvious fall guy, unless he hoped Dany would fulfil this role. Although more likely the finger would point at him. Maybe in the ensuing chaos and breakdown of the peace he felt this wouldn't matter.

:bowdown:

That was a good analysis.

[bemused]

Regarding an abortive..

I tried unsuccessfully to find the thread where I discussed this with others, but I know I'm far from the only one on the band wagon. Here are a few clues ,apart from the "glow". These are of a symbolic nature but we know GRRM is right into that..

When Dany dines with the GG just before Daario returns from the Lamb men..

Her cooks had prepared them a magnificent meal of honeyed lamb, fragrant with crushed mint and served with the small green figs she liked so much.

honeyed lamb= sweet child ... mint = protection against illness, maybe virtue , fidelity.. figs- sexual organs (male or female) sex in general. ...That Dany's cooks prepared the meal she ordered could show that Dany is indeed now fertile .. the figs she liked so much..well, we know Dany likes sex.

Amidst much discussion of the forces outside Meereen, sons of the harpy, and GG casting aspersions on Skahaz, conversation touches on Dany's child hostages..

“They are of my blood,” the Green Grace said, as Qezza filled her cup with a dark red wine...

Blood, dark red wine =Ghiscari bloodlines are of great importance to GG and may hint at her real intentions toward Dany.

The GG offers Dany her counsel.. "Then heed me now and marry."

“Ah.” Dany had been expecting this. “Oftimes I have heard you say that you are only a young girl. To look at you, you still seem half a child, too young and frail to face such trials by yourself. You need a king beside you to help you bear these burdens.”

..we speak of children being borne( carried) ,as well as burdens

Dany speared a chunk of lamb, took a bite from it, chewed slowly. ... Dany's thinking about the prospect , including perhaps, providing Meereen with an heir..but cautiously.

The GG goes on at length ending with a threat.. A highborn king of pure Ghiscari blood could reconcile the city to your rule. Elsewise, I fear, your reign must end as it began, in blood and fire.”

Dany pushed her food about her plate. ....The subject of marriage , and the attending implications of childbearing is definitely not appetizing..at least as presented by the GG..

Following this scene Hizdahr is to join her...

When she was gone, Dany let Qezza fill her cup again, dismissed the children, and commanded that Hizdahr zo Loraq be admitted to her presence. ... note : wine reminiscent of blood poured by a family member of the GG.

Hizdahr enters and offers a compliment, at which Dany thinks..

It was a good start. “Drink with me.” Dany filled his cup herself. “You know why you are here. The Green Grace seems to feel that if I take you for my husband, all my woes will vanish.”

This may symbolize/ foreshadow that if they intend to serve her up blood , she will return it in kind.... or alternatively, that they now have her participating in their bloody scheme ..They drink together, eventually reach their 90 day agreement , he gives her a less than thrilling kiss before parting.

Barristan enters,gently tries to dissuade her from the marriage , and tells her Daario has returned. She ,of course, receives him. Now we see quite a change.

Daenerys received the captain on her terrace, seated on a carved stone bench beneath a pear tree. A half-moon floated in the sky above the city, attended by a thousand stars. Daario Naharis

entered swaggering. ..

Pear tree = lasting friendship, love , longing to unite , female form,has a pregnant shape... Half moon = perhaps Dany's own cycle or it could be for actual timing.( she sends Daario away again, immediately after this meeting and when he returns, it may be close to the new moon..a good time for planting seeds, new beginnings )

He tells her he raced ahead of all his men to see her face the sooner, only to be left languishing whilst she ate lamb and figs with some dried-up old woman.” ..(That was a waste of time.). but, he says..

“I have not eaten in two days, but now that I am here, it is enough for me to feast upon your beauty.”

“My beauty will not fill up your belly.” She plucked down a pear and tossed it at him. “Eat this.”

( Later ,after one of their very last nights together , she tells him that he's beautiful...well, her beauty can't fill his belly but he ...and his beauty .. can fill up hers...although he observes drily that he's not beautiful enough to marry. )

“If my queen commands it.” He took a bite of the pear, his gold tooth gleaming. Juice ran down into his purple beard. ...This is a very ripe pear . ( pear= woman , ripe= ready to produce ) ..As he continues to give his report , he says ...

“I trust all my men. Just as far as I can spit.” He spat out a seed and smiled at her suspicions.

He spits out a seed ? That's a pretty broad hint ( but in the same tone as filling a belly ).. Daario discards no part of that pear..consumes the whole thing.. except the stem and the one seed he spits out..

Later,out on the grasslands , Dany undergoes what seems to be a miscarriage, after eating handfuls of the green berries. She can't remember how long ago she had her last menses ..she seems to have missed a month or two , anyway...

Green berries , combined with the other hints, could denote that the "poison" was an abortive, and that the GG ( probably along with Hizdahr , who provided the caterer ) was behind the plan.

ETA: as for Skahaz trying to poison Hizdahr.. We don't know if H. likes them, do we ? He likes spicy, but I don't remember locusts in particular.. He simply tries to sell them to Dany... He ( or anyone ) would certainly have had to eat the whole bowlful, and even that didn't kill Belwas ( Besides, who but Belwas would pig out that way in public?)... Not a good plan, if you really want to kill someone.

Don't you think Skahaz would be smarter than this ?