Jump to content

Do you think Stannis will achieve a Pyrrhic victory in the Battle of Ice?


Recommended Posts

This is a question regarding the upcoming battle of ice in the book.
I believe that Stannis will achieve a Pyrrhic victory(It is a victory with such a devastating cost that it is tantamount to defeat. Someone who wins a Pyrrhic victory has been victorious in some way; however, the heavy toll negates any sense of achievement or profit.)
We already know GRRM likes to use Historic Equivalents For eg:
Stark Lannister Conflict - War of the Roses York vs Lancastershire.
This Kind of a victory will fit in well the theory which believes that Stannis is next Night's King.
I would like to know your opinions on this.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Stannis seems to be pretty sure he has a fair chance of a clear victory here, so even though I think he'll suffer some losses, I'm not ready to say it will be a pyrrhic victory by any means. I mean, the Man smiles when thinking about his plan in Theon sample chapter.

Strangely, Stannis smiled. "Angry foes do not concern me. Anger makes men stupid, and Hosteen Frey was stupid to begin with, if half of what I have heard of him is true. Let him come."
"He will."
"Bolton has blundered," the king declared. "All he had to do was sit inside his castle whilst we starved. Instead he has sent some portion of his strength forth to give us battle. His knights will be horsed, ours must fight afoot. His men will be well nourished, ours go into battle with empty bellies. It makes no matter. Ser Stupid, Lord Too-Fat, the Bastard, let them come. We hold the ground, and that I mean to turn to our advantage."
"The ground?" said Theon. "What ground? Here? This misbegotten tower? This wretched little village? You have no high ground here, no walls to hide beyond, no natural defenses."
"Yet."

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Stannis seems to be pretty sure he has a fair chance of a clear victory here, so even though I think he'll suffer some losses, I'm not ready to say it will be a pyrrhic victory by any means. I mean, the Man smiles when thinking about his plan in Theon sample chapter.

Strangely, Stannis smiled. "Angry foes do not concern me. Anger makes men stupid, and Hosteen Frey was stupid to begin with, if half of what I have heard of him is true. Let him come."

"He will."

"Bolton has blundered," the king declared. "All he had to do was sit inside his castle whilst we starved. Instead he has sent some portion of his strength forth to give us battle. His knights will be horsed, ours must fight afoot. His men will be well nourished, ours go into battle with empty bellies. It makes no matter. Ser Stupid, Lord Too-Fat, the Bastard, let them come. We hold the ground, and that I mean to turn to our advantage."

"The ground?" said Theon. "What ground? Here? This misbegotten tower? This wretched little village? You have no high ground here, no walls to hide beyond, no natural defenses."

"Yet."

I have strange gut feeling that Stannis will get hurt or something by a manderly stray arrow and thus his soldiers morales will drop and hence they'll suffer massive losses. I would absolutely loved to proved wrong though

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have strange gut feeling that Stannis will get hurt or something by a manderly stray arrow and thus his soldiers morales will drop and hence they'll suffer massive losses. I would absolutely loved to proved wrong though

Nah, there's always the Northmen - they don't give a damn if Stannis is smashed to pulp, they're just happy to kick some Frey ass.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I recently made a post somewhat this in another thread. I said it was possible that Stannis would win the battle, but be injured or take such losses that he cannot march on Winterfell, but cannot stay where he is. I postulated that Asha's suggestion of going to Torrhens Square becomes much more likely if this happens.


Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think Stannis will most likely destroy the Freys at small cost to himself. http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/99572-the-crofters-village-and-the-upcoming-battle-of-winterfell/



Ser Justin Massey remarks to Asha in one of her chapters that Stannis need only bloody Bolton and the North will desert him. I think that's true, and would go so far as to say that they would kill him and his household for what happened to Lady Hornwood, let alone the Red Wedding and the sack of Winterfell.


Link to comment
Share on other sites

I expect Stannis to win the battle with little difficulty (Manderly switching sides, other northern lords betraying the Boltons, etc...), however then things go bad for him as the northerners decide to back Rickon or Jon.



Stannis only brought 2000 men north. He's lost men at the Battle at the Wall, Battle at Deepwood Moat, and on the march to Winterfell. He'll likely lose more in the Battle of Ice. We know Storm's End will fall and Dragonstone may have already been taken by Loras. Even his red witch seems more interested in Snow these days.



If the North backs someone else, Stannis is screwed. It'd be interesting to see how he reacts to that.


Link to comment
Share on other sites

Unlikely. Stannis has far to few men, a pyrrhic victory would remove him (and to a certain extent the North in general) from the board. That isn't going to happen, the North is too central.




the fact that Stannis is so assured of victory is the most troubling thing. Whenever a character seems to have an infallible plan in the books, the one tiny thing that could possibly throw a wrench in it happens.




Whenever a character describes an infallible plan on screen it gets screwed up. But Stannis doesn't describes his plan (as far as we know). GRRM likes to present the alternatives. If there are no details, he'll show it while it happens.





I expect Stannis to win the battle with little difficulty (Manderly switching sides, other northern lords betraying the Boltons, etc...), however then things go bad for him as the northerners decide to back Rickon or Jon.



Stannis only brought 2000 men north. He's lost men at the Battle at the Wall, Battle at Deepwood Moat, and on the march to Winterfell. He'll likely lose more in the Battle of Ice. We know Storm's End will fall and Dragonstone may have already been taken by Loras. Even his red witch seems more interested in Snow these days.



If the North backs someone else, Stannis is screwed. It'd be interesting to see how he reacts to that.




1,100 northwards, 1,000 towards Deepwood Motte and WInterfell. WIth at least 4,000 Northmen several months ago, probably way more at this date. He'd better wipe his feet and behave properly when entering Winterfell.


Link to comment
Share on other sites

hey you know this thread kinda fits now . i mean GRRM always drives the story from a POV .and stannis becoming night king is awesome. as he is desperate to become the king of seven kingdoms and he will take whayever help he can so he will make a deal with the other.he took help from melisandre(evilo self proclaimed all knowing bitch)to point out. and then when jon and stannis meet for final battle, they both know each other pretty well and both have gained respect for each other and thier battle to death will be awesome

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Does the result of the battle really matter? Stannis's forces are starving, even if they win all they'll gain is some horse meat and the Frey food supplies which given the situation in Winterfell probably isn't that significant.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This Kind of a victory will fit in well the theory which believes that Stannis is next Night's King.

To me, this theory is so absurd that it makes the GNC seem utterly logical and inevitably correct. Why on earth would Stannis, who came North specifically to fight the Others, join them? Why would he even join the Watch? And even if he did, there's no guarantee he'd be elected Lord Commander. This a requirement since the Night's King was a Lord Commander who went rogue. At any rate, we don't know exactly what Stannis' plan is, but it seems like it will involve a Manderly defection and significant use of the ice on the lake, which is full of holes now. If Stannis plays his cards right, he could win handily.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It is a natural conclusion for an ASoIaF reader to expect GRRM to bring Stannis' plans to crazy unexpected ruin. He loves to do things like that to us. Yet, GRRM has to throw us a bone from time to time...

Maybe Stannis' not yet fully revealed plans will exceed our expectations? I hope so!

The first time I read the "Bastard" letter to Jon, it broke my heart, as I imagined Stannis' & company starved, frozen and wiped out...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think Stannis has seen the battle in his fires; it's hinted in one of the earlier books (Clash or Storm I think?) that he's developed some novice flame-reading abilities. I think the reason he's stopped at the village is that 1. He knows it's a good position for fighting an oncoming army, and 2. He's seen a victory in the flames.



However, as we have realized from Melisandre, an ability to see the future in the flames doesn't guarantee that this knowledge will help you.



A Pyrrhic victory can easily happen if he defeats the Freys that Bolton sends out, especially if the Manderlys show up to help. The members of his army that are from the South are dropping like flies. Frozen flies. The northerners already outnumber them, and if any more stormlanders die during the battle his army's ratio of southerners to northerners could get as uneven as 70/30 or 80/20.



Afterwards the northerners could very well decide they're in charge. They can be nice to Stannis, but be firm in telling him he might be king, but they're not his lapdogs. The victory might be his, but he might end up being a follower instead of leader. He won't like it, but if the GNC threads have displayed, a lot of northerners are acting out their own plans. He'll have to listen to them after the fights in the North.


Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is a question regarding the upcoming battle of ice in the book. (Karate chop)

If you're a believer that Stannis as AAR is one of the lies that Dany must slay...

Glowing like sunset, a red sword was raised in the hand of a blue-eyed king who cast no shadow.

...then it seems that he must live, he must remain in power, and he (and at least some others) must continue to believe he is AAR.

If that vision indeed refers to Stannis, and he dies at any phase prior to Dany's ability to intercede somehow, then it seems the HOTU loses credence as a foreshadowing tool in general, which would ruin one of the most important plot vehicles of the series, IMO.

Having said, I'm of the mind that if Stannis simply takes WF via the Trojan Horse theory, or by any other means that seem a little too convenient, that something will indeed go wrong.

It's one or the other, right, George? Either Stan has a bitch of a time taking WF, or something goes wrong immediately after...

Other elements in play include Tormund's company being on the way, Jon being OOC, and the Wall being thinly manned in general... So, depending on how long the reclamation of WF takes, the door is certainly open for the Wall to come down at the worst possible moment...

But GRRM also indicated he'd resolve the battle(s) of ice (and Meereen) relatively early in TWOW, so a likely timeline would not suggest that the Wall coming down so early in TWOW is the thing that will "go wrong" for Stannis after/while taking WF.

So, whether there's any real truth to Stannis being the Night's King Reborn, or some such, I think there is a fair likelihood of Stannis himself being the thing that "goes wrong," which also supports the commonly held belief that the lies Dany will slay are for the betterment of Westeros.

After all, the further Stannis falls from grace, slips into madness, and/or mistreats his men, the more we will rejoice when Dany does something about it.

Right now, though, I feel like we're all rooting for him. And rightly so. I mean, how can anyone hate Stannis while Ramsay still breathes?

But winter is coming, and all men must die...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

After all, the further Stannis falls from grace, slips into madness, and/or mistreats his men, the more we will rejoice when Dany does something about it.

Right now, though, I feel like we're all rooting for him. And rightly so. I mean, how can anyone hate Stannis while Ramsay still breathes?

But winter is coming, and all men must die...

I would rather have Stannis killed by a stray manderly arrow or a jumped of a cliff, rather than being touched by dany or her crazy dragons.

Correction:All men and women must die.....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think Stannis has seen the battle in his fires; it's hinted in one of the earlier books (Clash or Storm I think?) that he's developed some novice flame-reading abilities. I think the reason he's stopped at the village is that 1. He knows it's a good position for fighting an oncoming army, and 2. He's seen a victory in the flames.

However, as we have realized from Melisandre, an ability to see the future in the flames doesn't guarantee that this knowledge will help you.

A Pyrrhic victory can easily happen if he defeats the Freys that Bolton sends out, especially if the Manderlys show up to help. The members of his army that are from the South are dropping like flies. Frozen flies. The northerners already outnumber them, and if any more stormlanders die during the battle his army's ratio of southerners to northerners could get as uneven as 70/30 or 80/20.

Afterwards the northerners could very well decide they're in charge. They can be nice to Stannis, but be firm in telling him he might be king, but they're not his lapdogs. The victory might be his, but he might end up being a follower instead of leader. He won't like it, but if the GNC threads have displayed, a lot of northerners are acting out their own plans. He'll have to listen to them after the fights in the North.

It's already 80/20 or worse. Not yet 90/10, but 85/15 is possible.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...