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[TPATQ and TWOW spoilers] Where does Dany stand right now?


Mladen

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When I have finished reading TPATQ, the first thing that came to my mind was what tough job Dany will have in winning IT. The countless discussions about Dany's progress to Westeros have always counted dragons as some sort of invincible weapons that will be able to create new Fields of fire wherever they appear. TPATQ novella showed us that dragons, while being extremely powerful and strong, have weaknesses. They alas can be killed by a man, and not just dragons.



So, we can relatively count pros and cons of Dany's dragons and their utility



PROS:



1. Dragons are rather powerful magical beings that can kill a lot of people at once.


2. Dany has not one but 3 dragons


3. Dany's dragons are growing with each day, and have already tasted blood. Drogon in the pit, and Viseryon and Rhaegal by burning all in front themselves in Battle of Meereen (Barristan's and Tyrion's chapters from TWOW)


4. There is psychological factor in dragons, resulting, as we have seen in TPATQ, in fear and respect


5. Dragons can be interpreted as symbols of true leader



CONS:



1. Dany's dragons are only 2 years old, and as such are not formidable beasts, as was dragons during Conquest, or some of the dragons used in Dance of dragons. I even doubt that any of the dragons used in battle were actually that young.



2. Dany has 3 dragons, but she has no riders. We already know how it functions. Dany can't ride Vyserion and Rhaegal, so she will need two riders. Who will those be? Danu, at the moment, especially because of Quaithe's warnings don't trust anyone, and it would be rather tough job to convince her that some potential dragonriders are her allies.



3. Dany is half the world away from Westeros. She needs to travel across the seas in winter with vast army to match other claimants. How will she transport those dragons? By ships? How much time would it need before some of those ships burn? Remember that no one in Qarth port wanted to transport Dany and her dragons by ship.



4. Dragons, and we learned this from TPATQ, can be killed. We are not talking anymore about some sort of magical weaponry, like proposed weirwood arrows. No, dragons can be killed by force and by men. Dragonslayers are not some legendary term, they actually existed. Is it tough? Certainly. Impossible? No. from scorpion bolts, to other dragons, possible poisoning, dragons indeed can be killed. And when we know that the beast such as Meraxes was killed by scorpion bolt, ok, through his eye, what do you think will be needed for killing much smaller beasts, Dany's dragons objectively are.




Apple Martini opened a great thread about killing dragons, and what it takes to kill a dragon. I am not interested in just that, I would like to explore where does Dany stand right now regarding conquering the Westeros with force she has. She will face resistance, and we know the second Dance of dragons is approaching. She will face Westeros, in its, well not full, but in many ways, great force. Dorne and Vale and even Reach (to a certain extent) had no losses. Riverlands and North bled during Wo5K, and there are too many players at the board with great divergence of agendas and loyalty. All of that might work for Daenerys. The army she can count at the moment can\t match, the full forces of certain regions, and add to that, that there will be some limitations in logistics of transporting huge army across the seas in winter.



So, what can we expect from the Dance of dragons in terms of Dany's advantages and disadvantages? She will face opposition, we have no doubts about that, and some of them might trump her with much greater forces. If Dorne sides with Aegon as we all think they will, and Tyrell/Lannister alliance becomes stronger due to Aegon/Dorne union, with possible and expected turmoils in Vale between LF and Sansa and Northern issues with Stannis, Boltons and the Others invading, will Dany be able to win IT easily, or will she bleed heavily? What can we expect in terms of warfare and the numbers when Dany is concerned? And has the second Dance now become much more interesting with Martin demystifying dragons and their utility?


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3. Dany is half the world away from Westeros. She needs to travel across the seas in winter with vast army to match other claimants. How will she transport those dragons? By ships? How much time would it need before some of those ships burn? Remember that no one in Qarth port wanted to transport Dany and her dragons by ship.

Potentially the dragons might be able to simply fly over themselves, when they grow strong enough to weather storms over seas.

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Potentially the dragons might be able to simply fly over themselves, when they grow strong enough to weather storms over seas.

Hmmm, don't you think it's rather a huge distance for them to travel by flying? We found out that dragons can't fly so easily during storms, and Dany's dragons won't grow that strong over night. Drogon didn't fly infinitely. He needed a rest, and Dany would need both dragons and army coming to Westeros at the same time.

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Hmmm, don't you think it's rather a huge distance for them to travel by flying? We found out that dragons can't fly so easily during storms, and Dany's dragons won't grow that strong over night. Drogon didn't fly infinitely. He needed a rest, and Dany would need both dragons and army coming to Westeros at the same time.

Well we don't have much to go on as to how far dragons can fly. There are certainly species of birds that can fly for that long by riding air currents and such.

Even if they can't fly for that long they could go through the Stepstones to Dorne, which might make sense as Dany knows that Dorne(at least intended) to be her ally. Relatively brief flights from island to island shouldn't be a problem. It might also bring Aurane Waters back into relevance too.

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I don't see her in westeros by the next book, that would be really rushed.


So I think her opposition in WOW will be other khals, Volantenes, probably some of the free cities and of course slavers bay, I think one dragon will be dead before she reaches Westeros.


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Hmmm, don't you think it's rather a huge distance for them to travel by flying? We found out that dragons can't fly so easily during storms, and Dany's dragons won't grow that strong over night. Drogon didn't fly infinitely. He needed a rest, and Dany would need both dragons and army coming to Westeros at the same time.

Stepstones.

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I think what's more important is what the Dragons symbolize, not just their fighting prowess. They are a huge propaganda tool, people will flock to her just because she has dragons.

The most important military lesson is that Dragons should just fly high above the battle and burn men to death from above. Almost all the dragons that died in tPatQ died because they got too close the ground, Dany doesn't have to worry about dragon-on-dragon fighting.

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2. Dany has 3 dragons, but she has no riders

This is the real issue. If she could find other trustworthy riders, then with one "fields of fire" type of battle, she would have all of westeros at their knees.

This i think will be the critical part of Dany´s conquest. And the one she will fail at. One or both riders could end up betraying her.

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What I learnt from PATQ is that when people get power such as dragons they get greedy, like some of the bastards in the story and I think that might happen again in this story and will probably be one of Dany's treasons the undying told her.


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I don't see her in westeros by the next book, that would be really rushed.

So I think her opposition in WOW will be other khals, Volantenes, probably some of the free cities and of course slavers bay, I think one dragon will be dead before she reaches Westeros.

Well, at some point she has to come to Westeros. I am not sure about Dothraki... I think they might follow her, given after all that she is the rider of a dragon right now. As for Meereen situation and Volantese, I also believe that, at this moment, we have rather complicated story to be ended soon, but can we expect her to start the trip to Westeros at the end of TWOW, perhaps. This is why I always considered that Dance of dragons 2.0 and War for Dawn 2.0 will be fought simultaneously.

Well we don't have much to go on as to how far dragons can fly. There are certainly species of birds that can fly for that long by riding air currents and such.

Even if they can't fly for that long they could go through the Stepstones to Dorne, which might make sense as Dany knows that Dorne(at least intended) to be her ally. Relatively brief flights from island to island shouldn't be a problem. It might also bring Aurane Waters back into relevance too.

Stepstones.

But, we know what problems Lycerus and Aemond had riding their dragons during storms. Plus, Stepstones are close to Dorne, but are significantly away from Slaver's bay. Also, she might have problems with going to Dorne, given possibility she will turn against Aegon, and Dorne will be already supporting him. I think her landing point might be the Vale. Plus, she wouldn't be so naive to believe that Quentyn's death will have no consequences.

I think what's more important is what the Dragons symbolize, not just their fighting prowess. They are a huge propaganda tool, people will flock to her just because she has dragons.

The most important military lesson is that Dragons should just fly high above the battle and burn men to death from above. Almost all the dragons that died in tPatQ died because they got too close the ground, Dany doesn't have to worry about dragon-on-dragon fighting.

People might, but I am not so certain... Dragons also means death, and at this point, I don't see any allies for Dany in Westeros, that will come to her and welcome her with open hands. Tyrells and Lannisters hold the Crown, Roverlands are in disarray, so is North, Dorne will side with Aegon, and he will also most likely have Stormlands... Vale, perhaps is the only option. Plus, if Tyrion meets her, I think he might persuade her to go to Vale, so he could reunite woith Mountain clansmen.

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Storms might not be an issue if a red priest like Moqorro can guarantee her safe passage.

Dany doesn't even know Aegon exists yet, and she knows she'll need as many allies as she can get, so an attempt to mollify Dorne wouldn't be out of character.

She can hardly be faulted for Quentyn's death given the circumstances.

Anyways, this is all speculation as to possibilites. There will always be challenges no matter what route she takes, and how she overcomes them will be part of the story.

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I think what's more important is what the Dragons symbolize, not just their fighting prowess. They are a huge propaganda tool, people will flock to her just because she has dragons.

Or the opposite. She shows up with boats full of Dothraki, Iron Born, a slave army, and three dragons. What kind of message do you think that'll send the people of Westeros who are already reeling from the losses sustained in the Wot5K.

The most important military lesson is that Dragons should just fly high above the battle and burn men to death from above. Almost all the dragons that died in tPatQ died because they got too close the ground, Dany doesn't have to worry about dragon-on-dragon fighting.

Dragon on dragon fighting is a huge possibility. We've seen what happens when some people get ahold of a dragon. They start having their own ambitions. And Dany can't control who her dragons bind to (unless something like the horn comes into play here, but even then it's likely the riders would pursue their own agenda after binding is complete). Assuming she is bound to Drogon, Viserion and Rhaegal are free for the taking.

The most curious thing to me though is the weather. If dragons have difficulty flying through rain I can't see how they'd fare any better in cold and snow, particularly dragons who have lived their entire lives in a hot, dry climate and have been chained up for part of that.

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CONS:

2. Dany has 3 dragons, but she has no riders. We already know how it functions. Dany can't ride Vyserion and Rhaegal, so she will need two riders. Who will those be? Danu, at the moment, especially because of Quaithe's warnings don't trust anyone, and it would be rather tough job to convince her that some potential dragonriders are her allies.

Well if Dany stays in the Dothraki Sea much longer, she might not have a choice to prevent potential dragonriders.

Victarion is pretty much at Meereen with the dragon horn that he believes he has claimed with blood and will bind him to (a) dragon(s). While Victarion's plans might not go as he wishes, Moqorro and the horn will probably be alive and well at Meereen after the battle.

One thing though, because Viserion and Rhaegal were kept in captivity, I doubt that they will be able to be ridden by a fully grown man for some time, which makes Tyrion the only likely dragonrider available (as much as I hate that.)

Dany doesn't even know Aegon exists yet, and she knows she'll need as many allies as she can get, so an attempt to mollify Dorne wouldn't be out of character.

She can hardly be faulted for Quentyn's death given the circumstances.

We probably are gonna assume Tyrion lives and tells Dany about Young Griff.

True, but probably not how the Dornish are going to see it.

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Storms might not be an issue if a red priest like Moqorro can guarantee her safe passage.

Dany doesn't even know Aegon exists yet, and she knows she'll need as many allies as she can get, so an attempt to mollify Dorne wouldn't be out of character.

She can hardly be faulted for Quentyn's death given the circumstances.

Anyways, this is all speculation as to possibilites. There will always be challenges no matter what route she takes, and how she overcomes them will be part of the story.

Regarding safe passage, I am not quite certain that works like we think. I doubt Red Priests are that powerful to grant anyone safe passage, especially for the journey that long.

As for Aegon, she will find eventually. And he is now in Westeros, with Arianne traveling towards him. I suspect Dorne will ask something in return, and making Arianne his queen is a logical step.

About Quentyn. I know Dany can't be held responsible, objectively. But, objectively is the key word... Doran might be reasonable enough, but I doubt. After all, Dany broke the alliance with Dorne with her refusal and marriage.

I know these are all speculations, but this forum is a great brain thrust, and someone may say something that works perfectly. :)

Or the opposite. She shows up with boats full of Dothraki, Iron Born, a slave army, and three dragons. What kind of message do you think that'll send the people of Westeros who are already reeling from the losses sustained in the Wot5K.

I agree. If she comes with Dothraki whom many in Westeros think of savages, plus slave army, Ironborn who are considered pirates, with known kinslayer and kingslayer by her side, many will turn her back...

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One thing though, because Viserion and Rhaegal were kept in captivity, I doubt that they will be able to be ridden by a fully grown man for some time, which makes Tyrion the only likely dragonrider available (as much as I hate that.

That's really interesting. I mentioned something similar in my post above but I was thinking more along the lines of them not being very strong or experienced at flying. I didn't think about that possibly limiting who the rider could be, but it makes total sense. Dany can only just now ride Drogon who is the largest and she's quite small. I'm thinking Vic is outta luck now.

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One thing though, because Viserion and Rhaegal were kept in captivity, I doubt that they will be able to be ridden by a fully grown man for some time, which makes Tyrion the only likely dragonrider available (as much as I hate that.)

Interesting angle... But, and here comes spoilers from TWOW - both dragons have escaped and has been uncontrollably burning all around Meereen ever since. So, that might quicken their growth.

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Regarding safe passage, I am not quite certain that works like we think. I doubt Red Priests are that powerful to grant anyone safe passage, especially for the journey that long.

As for Aegon, she will find eventually. And he is now in Westeros, with Arianne traveling towards him. I suspect Dorne will ask something in return, and making Arianne his queen is a logical step.

About Quentyn. I know Dany can't be held responsible, objectively. But, objectively is the key word... Doran might be reasonable enough, but I doubt. After all, Dany broke the alliance with Dorne with her refusal and marriage.

I know these are all speculations, but this forum is a great brain thrust, and someone may say something that works perfectly. :)

.

Well Melisandre was able to give an entire fleet smooth sailing from Dragonstone to the Wall, so I don't think it's too far fetched.

And what I'm trying to say with the other part is that it's not foolproof, Doran might very well blame her for Quentyn's death or betray her to Aegon, but that doesn't mean that's not how the story will progress. One possible route to Westeros would be through the Stepstones to Dorne - which given Dany's nature to try and appease everyone I don't think is too far-fetched - and if Doran ends up turning against her thenit's simply another arc to the story.

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It's my belief that the dragons won't be used by Dany to claim the Iron Throne. I think they'll be used at the Wall.



Stannis put aside his efforts to take the Kingdom in order to defend the realm. Dany actually cares about the people on whose behalf she fights and so, therefore, I can see her abandoning her quest to be Queen of Westeros if the Others are at the Wall.


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Dany can only just now ride Drogon who is the largest and she's quite small. I'm thinking Vic is outta luck now.

Rethinking a bit of what I posted... And then I saw this. Do we actually know this? I mean, I assumed this too, but in either of Dany's last chapters I cannot recall her specifically mentioning how she is just small enough / Drogon is just big enough for her to ride him.

And about Vic, I specifically bolded the rider in dragonrider, yes, Vic might not be able to ride a dragon right away, but he (or someone else) might bond with one and be able to ride by the time they get to Westeros.

Interesting angle... But, and here comes spoilers from TWOW - both dragons have escaped and has been uncontrollably burning all around Meereen ever since. So, that might quicken their growth.

True, if GRRM wants (well this is what I want, but I can desperately hope he does too!) Victarion to ride Viserion in full plate armor, then GRRM will have Victarion ride Viserion in full plate armor.

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Well Melisandre was able to give an entire fleet smooth sailing from Dragonstone to the Wall, so I don't think it's too far fetched.

And what I'm trying to say with the other part is that it's not foolproof, Doran might very well blame her for Quentyn's death or betray her to Aegon, but that doesn't mean that's not how the story will progress. One possible route to Westeros would be through the Stepstones to Dorne - which given Dany's nature to try and appease everyone I don't think is too far-fetched - and if Doran ends up turning against her thenit's simply another arc to the story.

I am not sure that either Melisandre or Moqorro actually provided safe passage... I know what they told to Stannis and Victarion respectively, but I am not sure.

As for Doran, I don't think he will see it as betrayal. Aegon came to Westeros first, and if he convinces (he believes to be Rhaegar's son after all) Arianne and Doran that he is who he says he is, with few won battles, I think Dany will find herself in tough position when she proclaims Aegon fake. Especially, when people find out who is she with - slaves, pirates, Dothraki, Tyrion. It's a lot of bad PR for Westerosi commoners.

It's my belief that the dragons won't be used by Dany to claim the Iron Throne. I think they'll be used at the Wall.

Stannis put aside his efforts to take the Kingdom in order to defend the realm. Dany actually cares about the people on whose behalf she fights and so, therefore, I can see her abandoning her quest to be Queen of Westeros if the Others are at the Wall.

Ah, as much as they might be needed at Wall, I do believe Dany will fight her Dance first. I do believe we will see simultaneous battles, with pretenders fighting for throne that belongs to Jon, and Jon and NW, North fighting with Others and wights when they are in need of dragons. I can easily see GRRM pulling that irony.

Rethinking a bit of what I posted... And then I saw this. Do we actually know this? I mean, I assumed this too, but in either of Dany's last chapters I cannot recall her specifically mentioning how she is just small enough / Drogon is just big enough for her to ride him.

Dany rode Drogon, and that is it. Until she is alive, she can't ride another dragon, and no one but her can ride Drogon.

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