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[TPATQ and TWOW spoilers] Where does Dany stand right now?


Mladen

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I'm sure Dany will land with some support in Westeros, as It would be most logical considering the Dance 2.0. I'm not entirely sure who, but we do know someone will help her get there, or it wouldn't be a Dance.



That said, I've always thought, and that's my personal opinion, that Dragons as perceived in TPATQ are not the same as the ones we do see in ASOIAF.



- Dragons have been considered extinct in ASOIAF timeline, while people in TPATQ co-existed with them on a daily basis. One would be more used to fighting, or at least, dealing with Dragons on Rhaenyra's time as they do on Dany's. The only one we know that studied the subject is Tyrion. And I don't exactly blame them, considering their extinction. Dragons will cause surprise now, as they are not expected, as they once were.



- Analyzing the Dragons in Dany's arc, they have never been used as her main weapon - It's not the dragons that help her conquer Astapor, but her freed unsullied.Their value is symbolical, as they do represent a possible threat when they grow. We see that in Kraznys's case, when he sells 8,000 unsullied for one Dragon. Although personally I think that was a stupid business idea, it does show the Dragons are mythological mighty creatures and are certainly desirable.



- Most importantly, though, is that Dany already controls one, at least. Drogon is hers to mount, and they have developed their own special bond. The other two do seem familiar to her, they might help her, even if she never mounts on them (Joffrey's tragic death, TPATQ)



I'm not sure how things will roll for Daenerys, and I'm sure she's an antagonist, but if anything, her Dance will be in the South, mainly. My personal idea is that the Dragons will have a participation in the war against the Others, but I'm not entirely sure how. Jon, in theory (At least if one believes in the "dragon seed") could mount one... Though I hope for heaven's sake that Martin won't go that direction. But, for good or for bad, Daenerys's destiny lies at the Wall.


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I think Tyrion's fascination with dragons, along with Marwyn the Mage, will increase Dany's knowledge.

If she accepts the help. Don't forget, Quaithe's warned her not to trust them, and there are a lot of bad blood between Dany's and Tyrion's families to begin with.

I'm sure Dany will land with some support in Westeros, as It would be most logical considering the Dance 2.0. I'm not entirely sure who, but we do know someone will help her get there, or it wouldn't be a Dance.

Given who supported Rhaenyra, I would think we might see Vale supporting her. North's allegiance is already occupied, and they have pressing issues.

That said, I've always thought, and that's my personal opinion, that Dragons as perceived in TPATQ are not the same as the ones we do see in ASOIAF.

I also believe that... TPATQ dragons are trained, paired, some of them fully grown and controlled, while Dany has 3 dragons, one rider, and a lot of inexperience in handling their dragons. Maesters already know that dragons are coming and they will stop her, and IMO, Maesters are powerful enemies... Knowledge is power, and if they know how to harm her dragons, she is basically toasted...

- Most importantly, though, is that Dany already controls one, at least. Drogon is hers to mount, and they have developed their own special bond. The other two do seem familiar to her, they might help her, even if she never mounts on them (Joffrey's tragic death, TPATQ)

Dany can't control all three dragons, that much from TPATQ is rather clear. Viseryon and Rhaegal are now wild card... They can be help her or become her worst nightmare.

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Rethinking a bit of what I posted... And then I saw this. Do we actually know this? I mean, I assumed this too, but in either of Dany's last chapters I cannot recall her specifically mentioning how she is just small enough / Drogon is just big enough for her to ride him.

I couldn't find anything definite. Just before the fighting pit scene where Dany flies off on Drogon, his wingspan is stated as 20 ft. When she's lost in the waste afterward and rides him again, he attacks a horse and kills it but it was too large for him to carry back to his lair so he eats it there.

I wish we'd been given more info on the ages of the younger dragons in the Dance, as that would give us some idea of the size and rideability of Dany's dragons.

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2. Dany has not one but 3 dragons

Actually no, just the one. Rhaegal and Viserion are loose and she can't ride either of them anyway.

Another thing gleaned from TPatQ: You don't "have" dragons, you have

riders who are loyal to you and will use their dragons for your cause. Rhaenyra didn't "have" the Red Queen, Caraxes, etc. She had the loyalty of Rhaenys, Daemon, etc., who were bonded to those dragons. A subtle difference but a difference nonetheless.

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Actually no, just the one. Rhaegal and Viserion are loose and she can't ride either of them anyway.

I have dealt with that issue later on... You are right, and I also believe that Viserion and Rhaegal are wild cards.

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I also believe that... TPATQ dragons are trained, paired, some of them fully grown and controlled, while Dany has 3 dragons, one rider, and a lot of inexperience in handling their dragons. Maesters already know that dragons are coming and they will stop her, and IMO, Maesters are powerful enemies... Knowledge is power, and if they know how to harm her dragons, she is basically toasted...

Dany can't control all three dragons, that much from TPATQ is rather clear. Viseryon and Rhaegal are now wild card... They can be help her or become her worst nightmare.

I'm not sure the Maesters are that prepared for Dany's dragons. In fact, I'd say her biggest weapon is everyone's, as well as hers, inexperience with Dragons. Dragons as elements of surprise might be a bigger threat than open conflict. I'm not entirely sure of Oldtown's security... Dragons are coming, but when they are coming? That might be a better question...

Dany can't mount them. I'm not sure how much Viserion and Rhaegal can do now... Though Barristan thinks they can fight for her, we do know that's not always the case. They might help her. Or be her worst nightmare, like you said. I'm not sure how they will behave, though I'm sure they will go to Westeros, even if not via Daenerys.

Given who supported Rhaenyra, I would think we might see Vale supporting her. North's allegiance is already occupied, and they have pressing issues.

I do agree that most likely, the Vale might support her. Be it Sansa or Littlefinger (The two important characters in the Vale), one might throw his hat for Daenerys. I don't see it now, plot-wise, but I'm not sure how the plot will turn in WOW. I don't think their support for Rhaenyra might be the biggest reason. I do remember the line about the Vale supporting Rhaenyra, not only for her mother, but because the Vale was ruled by the Maid of the Vale.

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Do all the dragons need riders though? I know that is the assumption but given the way these dragons entered the world (being "hatched" by Dany) they might behave quite differently than the dragons have in the past. She has a unique connection to them that I am assuming no Targaryen has had before her.


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Do all the dragons need riders though? I know that is the assumption but given the way these dragons entered the world (being "hatched" by Dany) they might behave quite differently than the dragons have in the past. She has a unique connection to them that I am assuming no Targaryen has had before her.

Well, there are untamed, wild dragons, but basically it's loose canon... Dany simply can control one dragon, not three at the same time. And I don't think that her connection to her dragons is in any way more special than any other prior connection to the dragons Targaryens had.

I'm not sure the Maesters are that prepared for Dany's dragons. In fact, I'd say her biggest weapon is everyone's, as well as hers, inexperience with Dragons. Dragons as elements of surprise might be a bigger threat than open conflict. I'm not entirely sure of Oldtown's security... Dragons are coming, but when they are coming? That might be a better question...

Given that Marwyn knows that Dany won't find any friend at Citadel, and given that we have been almost told that Maesters are responsible for killing dragons (in what way, I am not sure), I wouldn't count on them being unprepared. Oldtown is one of the biggest ports in Westeros, and news travel quickly. Soon, half the Westeros will know or at least will have heard about Dany and her dragons. So, believing that Maesters would be unprepared is rather naive...

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Do all the dragons need riders though? I know that is the assumption but given the way these dragons entered the world (being "hatched" by Dany) they might behave quite differently than the dragons have in the past. She has a unique connection to them that I am assuming no Targaryen has had before her.

The Targs in TPatQ were given dragon eggs as babies (Egg talks of one being in his cradle). Sometimes the eggs hatched and sometimes they didn't. It seems they are mostly (exclusively?) hatched on Dragonstone. Whether it's magic or sorcery or naturally occurring, we don't know. But I wouldn't necessarily say Dany's situation is absolutely unique.

Also interesting, in ADwD, Dany is reflecting on her ride on Drogon and thinks now the Valyrians blinded their dragons using spells and horns and all she needed was a whip and her voice. Now that we've read TPatQ we see that that's how all the riders control their dragons.

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I haven't read TPATQ yet so sorry if anything I say is contrary to the text.



Is it possible now that Rhaegal and Viserion are loose and growing up fast that they might go fly away to find their riders themselves? Maybe it would be cheesy if one of them flew off to the wall and somehow Jon bonded with it before everyone tried to kill it. I just think a dragon vs. dragon fight could be more plausible and evenly matched if they already had relationships to their riders.


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Man for some reason i see one of the dragons either dying or going to westeros without her (don't ask me how) it just a feeling. Alas i kinda see her losing some of her forces crossing the narrow sea, because to travel in winter truly is a hassle and with dothraki who fear seas and ex slaves and vikings it shall not be easy. I honestly believe that if she and aegon showed up together i see no one in westeros beating that combined force. Now that they are separated dany is behind and she has no allies sadly.



honestly especially since reading TPATQ that 3 year old dragons don't mean much not now. Unless they are forcible grown through magic or something (like in earagorn) then i don't see them being that hard to kill.

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Also interesting, in ADwD, Dany is reflecting on her ride on Drogon and thinks now the Valyrians blinded their dragons using spells and horns and all she needed was a whip and her voice. Now that we've read TPatQ we see that that's how all the riders control their dragons.

Indeed. I also find the interesting how delusional entire Targaryen clan was. I mean, they all believed that only Targaryen can ride a dragon, plus they passed that misinformation to the next generations feeding their ego. We have Nettle, who was able to ride Sheepstealer, and who rejected the idea that Targaryen can only ride dragons. And, the quantity of that delusional ideas is impressive, having Dany and Viserys in mind.

I haven't read TPATQ yet so sorry if anything I say is contrary to the text.

Is it possible now that Rhaegal and Viserion are loose and growing up fast that they might go fly away to find their riders themselves? Maybe it would be cheesy if one of them flew off to the wall and somehow Jon bonded with it before everyone tried to kill it. I just think a dragon vs. dragon fight could be more plausible and evenly matched if they already had relationships to their riders.

I don't think so...

In TPATQ, we have three wild, untamed, unmounted dragons on Dragonstone. They didn't fly somewhere to find their match. People came to mount them, and many burnt in the process.

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I agree with the people saying that the dragons don't have to be the huge WMD we think they will be. The fact that they exist will be a huge boon to her PR wise alone. A living symbol of her 'divine right'. Sure, there are ways to fight the dragons, but I imagine that it will take a while for people to come up with the necessary plans and overcome their initial awe of the dragons. Her best bet is a quick victory before that happens. I don't think it will be a cake-walk for Dany, but I think she has a good shot without the dragons, and the dragons are icing on the cake for her. Come on, mother fucking dragons! People are gonna be blown away by that shit.



As to how they manage to cross to Westeros, Stepstones sound as good as any route to me. I also do believe that the Red Priest can help them in the crossing. Even if you take into account that Meli was fudging when she said she provided safe passage for Stannis's ships, I believe the priests can at least forecast the weather and give enough warning of storms that they could hunker down on an island or whatever til it passes. The Targs of old crossed, I don't really see it being a problem for these dragons. It will probably be in a manner we've not even thought of yet, and will totally make sense.


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As far as the psychological aspect, I always thought the dragons would be a surefire benefit.. Who wants to fuck with dragons, after all? Especially given how much loss has been suffered by the people of Westeros, they might just let Dany do what she wants and stay out of her way.



Do we know how big Dany's dragons are at this point?


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Indeed. I also find the interesting how delusional entire Targaryen clan was. I mean, they all believed that only Targaryen can ride a dragon, plus they passed that misinformation to the next generations feeding their ego. We have Nettle, who was able to ride Sheepstealer, and who rejected the idea that Targaryen can only ride dragons. And, the quantity of that delusional ideas is impressive, having Dany and Viserys in mind.

It's also possible that the Targs knew that all this was bullshit but kept up the PR so that no one else would think they could control their dragons. We don't see anything from a Targ's perspective.

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I agree with the people saying that the dragons don't have to be the huge WMD we think they will be. The fact that they exist will be a huge boon to her PR wise alone. A living symbol of her 'divine right'. Sure, there are ways to fight the dragons, but I imagine that it will take a while for people to come up with the necessary plans and overcome their initial awe of the dragons. Her best bet is a quick victory before that happens. I don't think it will be a cake-walk for Dany, but I think she has a good shot without the dragons, and the dragons are icing on the cake for her. Come on, mother fucking dragons! People are gonna be blown away by that shit.

As to how they manage to cross to Westeros, Stepstones sound as good as any route to me. I also do believe that the Red Priest can help them in the crossing. Even if you take into account that Meli was fudging when she said she provided safe passage for Stannis's ships, I believe the priests can at least forecast the weather and give enough warning of storms that they could hunker down on an island or whatever til it passes. The Targs of old crossed, I don't really see it being a problem for these dragons. It will probably be in a manner we've not even thought of yet, and will totally make sense.

1. I agree dragons are more useful in PR sections, than in utility/

2. I am sorry, but without dragons, Dany is nothing. She has 8000 Unsullied, plus at best, several mercenary groups. Yes, I imagine we could add Victarion as her allies, and all in all, that's 20 000 men. She is facing entire continent full of her enemies. Enemies that will not bow so easy. So, those dragons, are basically, her only card.

3. OK, but there is a long journey from Slaver's bay to Stepstones. Is she going by sea or by land... If she is going by sea, logistics is incredibly against the odds, and if she goes by land, then I imagine each city on her path will attack her... It's a lose/lose scenario...

But, no matter what impediments are, I do believe she will come to Westeros. Only, I think we might see stalemate situation where all sides will be equal or close to that... I think the upcoming Dance will be one really tough war.

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And has the second Dance now become much more interesting with Martin demystifying dragons and their utility?

Just re-reading your original post and forgot to mention this very last line. YES! Absolutely. We've seen some weakness of dragons and seen them die off like flies. After I read that story, my first thought was that Dany had better be cautious with her dragons and I hope she doesn't buy into the hype of DRAGONS! RAWR! I am optimistic that she will get as good advice as possible in this day and age with Tyrion and Marwin, but it upped the stakes for me a lot. I don't want any of her dragons to die! Too much of that in tPatQ. Made my heart hurt. :(

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Mladen, on 11 Dec 2013 - 9:30 PM, said:

Indeed. I also find the interesting how delusional entire Targaryen clan was. I mean, they all believed that only Targaryen can ride a dragon, plus they passed that misinformation to the next generations feeding their ego. We have Nettle, who was able to ride Sheepstealer, and who rejected the idea that Targaryen can only ride dragons. And, the quantity of that delusional ideas is impressive, having Dany and Viserys in mind.

I don't think so...

In TPATQ, we have three wild, untamed, unmounted dragons on Dragonstone. They didn't fly somewhere to find their match. People came to mount them, and many burnt in the process.

Interesting. That sort of shuts down the theory that Tyrion must be Aerys' bastard if he's going to be a dragon rider. That's good news because I hate the A + J = T theory.

I really have to get on reading TPATQ soon or else I won't be able to discuss dragons without sounding stupid. :dunce:

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I haven't read TPATQ yet so sorry if anything I say is contrary to the text.

Is it possible now that Rhaegal and Viserion are loose and growing up fast that they might go fly away to find their riders themselves? Maybe it would be cheesy if one of them flew off to the wall and somehow Jon bonded with it before everyone tried to kill it. I just think a dragon vs. dragon fight could be more plausible and evenly matched if they already had relationships to their riders.

In addition to what Mladen said:

There are older dragons whose riders have died. These dragons do take new riders, but the process is never made clear. By the way the alleged Targ bastards on Dragonstone manage to become riders, it seems it's just luck of the draw. We don't see an instance on screen of a Targ binding to a new dragon, either a hatchling or an older one. Anyway, to try to answer the question, there doesn't seem to be anything indicating that a dragon would try to find a rider on their own.

Indeed. I also find the interesting how delusional entire Targaryen clan was. I mean, they all believed that only Targaryen can ride a dragon, plus they passed that misinformation to the next generations feeding their ego. We have Nettle, who was able to ride Sheepstealer, and who rejected the idea that Targaryen can only ride dragons. And, the quantity of that delusional ideas is impressive, having Dany and Viserys in mind.

Yep. Someone, I think it was Tze but I could be wrong, mentioned in TPatQ spoiler thread about the fact that a dragon will only accept one rider. They pointed out that this is possibly a lie told by earlier generations to prevent infighting between the Targs. For example, if this wasn't thought to be true, everyone would be fighting over who road Vhagar.

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