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[TPATQ and TWOW spoilers] Where does Dany stand right now?


Mladen

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Dragons were never WMD. The faceless men have the real WMD. Allegedly if they were responsible of the Doom of Valyria (some even say Hardhome)



Dragons are more like Apache Helicopters. Good luck bringing them down. It can be done, I just don´t want to be the one trying.



If you think about it, a Mob killed a number of them during the Storming of the Dragonpit. It helps if the dragons are chained.


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2. I am sorry, but without dragons, Dany is nothing. She has 8000 Unsullied, plus at best, several mercenary groups. Yes, I imagine we could add Victarion as her allies, and all in all, that's 20 000 men. She is facing entire continent full of her enemies. Enemies that will not bow so easy. So, those dragons, are basically, her only card.

3. OK, but there is a long journey from Slaver's bay to Stepstones. Is she going by sea or by land... If she is going by sea, logistics is incredibly against the odds, and if she goes by land, then I imagine each city on her path will attack her... It's a lose/lose scenario...

2. How many men does Griff have? (I honestly don't know) Also, the entire continent is not her enemy. Obviously she can expect Dorne, Quentyn or not, and I can't believe there are no Targ loyalists out there yet. It hasn't been that long ago. Dany is probably overestimating her chances adding in her dragons and the *cough* many Targ loyalists that her brother thought would welcome him, but given the horrid state of affairs in Westeros now, I think it evens things up a bit.

3. Again, I don't know the logistics, but hugging the coast when possible and taking it farther out to sea when there is a possibility of confrontation seems a good bet. If you let it be know ahead of you that you are getting the hell out of dodge and have a fleet protected by a dragon air-force, I don't see them getting much serious resistance in getting the hell out of Essos. Wasn't there a city ... blanking ... who was waiting for Dany to come and liberate them? So not all of Essos is her enemy.

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Just re-reading your original post and forgot to mention this very last line. YES! Absolutely. We've seen some weakness of dragons and seen them die off like flies. After I read that story, my first thought was that Dany had better be cautious with her dragons and I hope she doesn't buy into the hype of DRAGONS! RAWR! I am optimistic that she will get as good advice as possible in this day and age with Tyrion and Marwin, but it upped the stakes for me a lot. I don't want any of her dragons to die! Too much of that in tPatQ. Made my heart hurt. :(

That was one of my initial reactions upon finishing TPATQ. Things are getting more interesting...:). Your heart may hurt, but I was so excatic at what exactly TPATQ implied - a brutal, incredibly even and hard-to-predict war... :)

Interesting. That sort of shuts down the theory that Tyrion must be Aerys' bastard if he's going to be a dragon rider. That's good news because I hate the A + J = T theory.

I really have to get on reading TPATQ soon or else I won't be able to discuss dragons without sounding stupid. :dunce:

Well, we already knew from GRRM that the 3rd head doesn't have to be Targaryen. I suppose that he meant rider...

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It's also possible that the Targs knew that all this was bullshit but kept up the PR so that no one else would think they could control their dragons. We don't see anything from a Targ's perspective.

I think this is most likely true of the older generations of Targs, and maybe as it was passed down through the years the bullshit aspect has been lost and they now believe it for truth. That's just IMO though, I don't really have any evidence to back it up.

I think it's pretty funny though that there has been so much analysis into who will/can be a rider for one of Dany's dragons, and then we see the Blacks just being like "Whoever wants to try, give it a go, we'll consider you a bastard and just roll with it!" :lol:

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2. How many men does Griff have? (I honestly don't know) Also, the entire continent is not her enemy. Obviously she can expect Dorne, Quentyn or not, and I can't believe there are no Targ loyalists out there yet. It hasn't been that long ago. Dany is probably overestimating her chances adding in her dragons and the *cough* many Targ loyalists that her brother thought would welcome him, but given the horrid state of affairs in Westeros now, I think it evens things up a bit.

3. Again, I don't know the logistics, but hugging the coast when possible and taking it farther out to sea when there is a possibility of confrontation seems a good bet. If you let it be know ahead of you that you are getting the hell out of dodge and have a fleet protected by a dragon air-force, I don't see them getting much serious resistance in getting the hell out of Essos. Wasn't there a city ... blanking ... who was waiting for Dany to come and liberate them? So not all of Essos is her enemy.

2. Will they? A dragon killed Quentyn, for some reason, I doubt Doran will want to associate himself with Dany and these beasts if he finds out.

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And honestly,





I think this is most likely true of the older generations of Targs, and maybe as it was passed down through the years the bullshit aspect has been lost and they now believe it for truth. That's just IMO though, I don't really have any evidence to back it up.





That's what I am thinking too. Once there were no more actual dragons, there was no need to pass on any *actual* dragonlore. There might have even been good reason to keep up the act - now that they didn't have dragons, they wanted to keep up the fiction that their blood is still special and still have a 'divine right' to rule. Later generations of Targs bought into the hype as much as anyone else.


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2. How many men does Griff have? (I honestly don't know) Also, the entire continent is not her enemy. Obviously she can expect Dorne, Quentyn or not, and I can't believe there are no Targ loyalists out there yet. It hasn't been that long ago. Dany is probably overestimating her chances adding in her dragons and the *cough* many Targ loyalists that her brother thought would welcome him, but given the horrid state of affairs in Westeros now, I think it evens things up a bit.

3. Again, I don't know the logistics, but hugging the coast when possible and taking it farther out to sea when there is a possibility of confrontation seems a good bet. If you let it be know ahead of you that you are getting the hell out of dodge and have a fleet protected by a dragon air-force, I don't see them getting much serious resistance in getting the hell out of Essos. Wasn't there a city ... blanking ... who was waiting for Dany to come and liberate them? So not all of Essos is her enemy.

2. Griff has Golden company, which IIRC, has 15 000 men. Plus, you can add Dorne and Stormlands (or what's left from the,) to his allies, so my initial count would be that he can count at first on 40 000 men. Plus, if we follow TPATQ, Hightowers might join him, if he plays his cards right by defending them from Ironborn. I imagine that would raise his numbers significantly, and even situation between him and Lannister/Tyrell alliance.

3. I know she can expect fierce opposition from Volantis... I am not sure what is a better solution, by land or by sea, but both have significant problems.

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2. Will they? A dragon killed Quentyn, for some reason, I doubt Doran will want to associate himself with Dany and these beasts if he finds out.

Well, we don't know how Doran wil react, but I have good reason to think he would still back Dany. (or now Aegon, but this is still unknown to Dany). She's probably thinking that if the Martells have to chose between her or the Lannisters, they'd go with her. At the very least they wouldn't move against her. It honestly wasn't Dany's fault, and after the initial shock, I think a ruler such as Doran would see that and not hold it against her. He is cautious and thinks things through. If Oberyron were ruler, that might be different, but he's not. Dany doesn't know how Doran thinks, but Barristan does, and so does Tyrion.

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2. Griff has Golden company, which IIRC, has 15 000 men. Plus, you can add Dorne and Stormlands (or what's left from the,) to his allies, so my initial count would be that he can count at first on 40 000 men. Plus, if we follow TPATQ, Hightowers might join him, if he plays his cards right by defending them from Ironborn. I imagine that would raise his numbers significantly, and even situation between him and Lannister/Tyrell alliance.

So Griff is starting with less men than Dany - are you giving him better odds? I agree that adding Aegon complicated the matter and Dany still doesn't have that info to make her calculations. Dorne could go either way when Dany arrives (hey, dragons are great PR :P) The Stormlands are only counted as an ally because they are conquering them by surprise, right? They couldn't have counted on that before they landed given that a 'Baratheon' king was sitting the throne. I'm not even sure that the Stormlands are his allies - just they are just taken out of the equation for now.

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Does anyone think that Dany and Aegon would ever come to an agreement and be co-rulers? I know Dany has the dragons and thinks of herself as The Queen, but as far as we know, she also thinks she can have no heirs. If she continues to believe this, I could see that as a path for her agreeing to marry Aegon. It just makes so much sense to me, but egos will clash and I don't think it's an actual possibility. That and I think Aegon is a fake or Blackfyre, but that doesn't even matter - perception is all that matters.


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Well, we don't know how Doran wil react, but I have good reason to think he would still back Dany. (or now Aegon, but this is still unknown to Dany). She's probably thinking that if the Martells have to chose between her or the Lannisters, they'd go with her. At the very least they wouldn't move against her. It honestly wasn't Dany's fault, and after the initial shock, I think a ruler such as Doran would see that and not hold it against her. He is cautious and thinks things through. If Oberyron were ruler, that might be different, but he's not. Dany doesn't know how Doran thinks, but Barristan does, and so does Tyrion.

I don't think reason will play no part here. Aegon is already in Westeros, Doran, if convinced he is real deal, will help him expecting Dany, and when Dany comes and slay the lie of mummer's dragons, then I imagine Dorne will be between Aegon and Dany. In that case, I believe that Doran might choose Aegon due to: 1. Believing he is his nephew. 2. Arianne could become queen. 3. Dany rejected Quentyn and has no possibility of union between them, unlike with Aegon.

So Griff is starting with less men than Dany - are you giving him better odds? I agree that adding Aegon complicated the matter and Dany still doesn't have that info to make her calculations. Dorne could go either way when Dany arrives (hey, dragons are great PR :P) The Stormlands are only counted as an ally because they are conquering them by surprise, right? They couldn't have counted on that before they landed given that a 'Baratheon' king was sitting the throne. I'm not even sure that the Stormlands are his allies - just they are just taken out of the equation for now.

Actually yes. With Dorne, his numbers are much higher, and Dany, although might have Vale, the question remains whether Sansa(I do believe Sansa will kick LF's ass) will help her or help Jon, if he summons for help. We talk about PR, but what about bad one? I mentioned slavers, Dothraki, pirates, Tyrion. Dany will also have to face with the bad PR of those who are with her. Well, as for STormlands, there are no force there. Stannis lost majority at Blackwater, the rest is with him on the Wall. Stormlands don't figure much with numbers.

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Does anyone think that Dany and Aegon would ever come to an agreement and be co-rulers? I know Dany has the dragons and thinks of herself as The Queen, but as far as we know, she also thinks she can have no heirs. If she continues to believe this, I could see that as a path for her agreeing to marry Aegon. It just makes so much sense to me, but egos will clash and I don't think it's an actual possibility. That and I think Aegon is a fake or Blackfyre, but that doesn't even matter - perception is all that matters.

I wouldn't put my money on that. Dance of dragons is heavily foreshadowed, plus there is that entire symbolism about mummer's dragon. No, I don't think Dany and Aegon would come to peaceful solution.

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I don't actually think so either, but ... but ... it just makes so much sense looking in from outside. The Targ's often marry within the family. Dany has the dragons, but Aegon has the better claim - they would each give strength to the other. It does shut down marriage alliances, but I do believe it will come up as a possible course of action from one or another of their advisers/allies before being shot down.


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I don't actually think so either, but ... but ... it just makes so much sense looking in from outside. The Targ's often marry within the family. Dany has the dragons, but Aegon has the better claim - they would each give strength to the other. It does shut down marriage alliances, but I do believe it will come up as a possible course of action from one or another of their advisers/allies before being shot down.

From outside, it does seem like a reasonable and logical step. But, alas, we are not in the world where logic and sanity leads. Dany, that sweet girl, wants the Throne. Aegon wants it too. Both of them want to rule in their own name. There is one throne... It's rather simple math. One has to go. :)

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Doesn't Aegon originally want to marry Daenerys?? Tyrion convinced him that she wouldn't accept him unless he actually went to Westeros first, but do we know that his plans have changed? On top of that, do we know that Daenerys has rejected the concept of holding the Throne with a Targaryen husband? If she was willing to keep Drogo and Hizdahr as consorts than Aegon would be even better since he is good-looking, a blood relative, even-tempered, and brings with him a suite of resources that can be used to help them take the Throne (moreso than Drogo and Hizdahr).



Don't get me wrong, I think they will conflict too, but I question the idea that they can't come to a peaceful resolution. In fact, what bewilders me is that Varys/Illyrio did not try to use Dany to lend legitimacy to Aegon. Regardless of if Aegon is really real or if he's an imposter, logic would suggest that most people would be skeptical if a dead Targaryen heir suddenly materialized at the head of House Blackfyre's military. Having the endorsement of a Targaryen heiress that everyone acknowledges is real would only smooth her passing. Daenerys is powerful and willful now but that's only because V and I basically just left her to her own devices basically from the moment that Drogo died; prior to that, she was pliable and would have been easy to manipulate especially if Viserys was taking out of the picture.



To me it doesn't really make sense that they wouldn't find some way to use Daenerys to bolster Aegon's legitimacy; they might plan to get rid of her later but honestly it seems like they had a great resource in having Dany in their pocket and they just kind of left her to wander. If they hadn't done that, she might even be taking orders directly from Illyrio.


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I think Tyrion's fascination with dragons, along with Marwyn the Mage, will increase Dany's knowledge.

I agree. Tyrion will be her useful counselor about many things. He knows as well the political history, the relatively current situation in Westeros, the fAegon effort, the other major players (especially Doran and family), etc. I think he will acquire more influence than Barristan and Jorah, which will help her make wise decisions re: getting to Westeros and succeeding there. Marwyn the Mage (if he reaches Dany) may also offer invaluable advice.

Mladen's great question has a facile and sarcastic answer is--she stands in the Dothraki Sea with Drogon and Khal Jhaqo.

It sums up the current vulnerabilities and logistic limitations of the three dragons very well. I think in many ways the dragons are more symbolic than practical...for now.

Dany has many momentous decisions between this and arriving in Westeros. But first, she either has to get Jhaqo to either free her or support her. Probably having Drogon will convince him to do one or the other. It's possible she will enlist him in getting her back to Meereen. Or maybe she'll just fly back.

Dany's army plus Victarion's raiders will win the battle for Meereen. In the aftermath--if Victarion doesn't try to steal a dragon--Dany and commanders will plan the invasion of Westeros, being transported by Victarion's fleet. Tyrion will tell Dany of his doubts about fAegon's parentage, and that at least Doran is likely to support him. I suspect he will counsel her to deny fAegon's authenticity and challenge him personally about his lack of dragons. If they handle their propaganda well, it's likely fAegon (who believes he's bona fide) will accept the challenge. And if he's false, he'll lose...if not his life, then his support. Chances are, defeating fAegon without overmuch use of the three dragons will save the dragons for the Others and the Wall.

I agree with Apple and Mladen that Rhaegal and Viserion are wild cards. And of course only one dragon has a rider...so far. But there may be a unique force at work here. Dany gave 'birth' to the three dragons, and she most certainly mothered them. She won't ride the other two, but they may be more tractable with her than dragons would normally be. Plus she has the well-read Tyrion (and maybe Marwyn) to advise her . Their knowledge plus her instinct plus the bond she has with all three dragons may mean that she can somewhat control them until when and if she can find two riders who are loyal to her.

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Well, we don't know how Doran wil react, but I have good reason to think he would still back Dany. (or now Aegon, but this is still unknown to Dany). She's probably thinking that if the Martells have to chose between her or the Lannisters, they'd go with her. At the very least they wouldn't move against her. It honestly wasn't Dany's fault, and after the initial shock, I think a ruler such as Doran would see that and not hold it against her. He is cautious and thinks things through. If Oberyron were ruler, that might be different, but he's not. Dany doesn't know how Doran thinks, but Barristan does, and so does Tyrion.

Once Doran learns how Quentyn died, no way in hell does he stick with Dany, even though it wasn't her fault. Aegon is his nephew, has a superior claim, and Doran can marry Arianne to Aegon. Even if Doran doesn't hold Dany responsible for Quentyn's death, which is no guarantee, Aegon is by far the more logical choice of an ally.

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Dany's dragons currently are good for psychological warfare as one would expect from giant, flying, fire-breathing reptiles, as well as their reputation from their history of use in warfare, and with the last dragon before dying a century ago, they give Dany the shock and awe she needs. They help to bolster her claim as divine right as other posters have mentioned, as it has been said several times by plenty of characters, that since Aegon I, dragons are the right to the throne.



As to the logistics of traveling over the Narrow Sea to Westeros, remember that the Taragryens originally made the same trip from Valyria to Dragonstone with their five dragons. As long as Dany follows the route of her ancestors, she should have few problems.



Armored horse and cavalry need to be moving constantly on the battlefield to maintain their effectiveness, and it is likely the same with dragons. They are most effective as long as they are constantly moving in the air while breathing flames, making it hard for men on the ground to reach them and harder for archers and crossbowmen to hit them. Otherwise if a dragon is grounded, as was demonstrated with Syrax and the dragons in the Dragonpit, it is more vulnerable to spears and swords, and archers and bowmen have it easier as the dragon is now in one spot on the ground, making it an easy target. It would also be advisable to have the archers dealt with ASAP when it comes to battle using the dragons.



Dany's dragons are also augmented with 10,000 Unsullied, the world's best infantry, along with the Seconds Sons, the Stormcrows, a large following of freed slaves and later the Iron Fleet with possibly the corsair king, Gerion Lannister to add his pirate fleet to hers along with whatever ships are captured in the Battle of Meereen.


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Once Doran learns how Quentyn died, no way in hell does he stick with Dany, even though it wasn't her fault. Aegon is his nephew, has a superior claim, and Doran can marry Arianne to Aegon. Even if Doran doesn't hold Dany responsible for Quentyn's death, which is no guarantee, Aegon is by far the more logical choice of an ally.

If he believes (or chooses to believe) he is the real thing. I could totally be misremembering, but doesn't he have reservations about that? (from WoW spoiler chapters). I just think Dorne is more of a wildcard and that as long as Doran gets his revenge on the Lannisters, he will be practical above all else.

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