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[TPATQ and TWOW spoilers] Where does Dany stand right now?


Mladen

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If he believes (or chooses to believe) he is the real thing. I could totally be misremembering, but doesn't he have reservations about that? (from WoW spoiler chapters). I just think Dorne is more of a wildcard and that as long as Doran gets his revenge on the Lannisters, he will be practical above all else.

And he might decide that his interests are better-served by Aegon anyway, real or not. The big "in" he had with Dany was an alliance through her marrying Quentyn. Without that, he has no surefire way to cement an alliance with her (read: nothing is in it for him), unlike with Arianne, whom he can marry to Aegon and have a huge amount of political power.

If it's between Aegon and Dany at this point, he's obviously going with Aegon.

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Mladen's great question has a facile and sarcastic answer is--she stands in the Dothraki Sea with Drogon and Khal Jhaqo.

It sums up the current vulnerabilities and logistic limitations of the three dragons very well. I think in many ways the dragons are more symbolic than practical...for now.

IIRC, they have found her laying on the field of grass... :)

Tyrion will tell Dany of his doubts about fAegon's parentage, and that at least Doran is likely to support him. I suspect he will counsel her to deny fAegon's authenticity and challenge him personally about his lack of dragons. If they handle their propaganda well, it's likely fAegon (who believes he's bona fide) will accept the challenge. And if he's false, he'll lose...if not his life, then his support. Chances are, defeating fAegon without overmuch use of the three dragons will save the dragons for the Others and the Wall.

The first sentence is a fallacy. Tyrion believes Aegon is Rhaegar's son, and in no way he doubts that. I know he is smart, but, let we be honest, he is not that smart. He is not omniscient. No, Dany will alone challenge Aegon's claim, due to Quiathe's warning and HotU vision about mummer's dragon.

About Others, do you actually think, GRRM will hold Others at bay until Westeros clears all their issues? Not likely. The Others will come soon, and Westeros will have 2 wars at the same time. Also, we are not sure that dragons can harm Others.

But there may be a unique force at work here. Dany gave 'birth' to the three dragons, and she most certainly mothered them. She won't ride the other two, but they may be more tractable with her than dragons would normally be.

Is her bond to all three dragons that strong? I mean, are we counting too much on the mother symbolism here, when we have seen that dragon can be mounted by others in certain cases, and that no man can ride more than one dragon. Mother of dragons is something people came up with, it's not actual and objective title.

As to the logistics of traveling over the Narrow Sea to Westeros, remember that the Taragryens originally made the same trip from Valyria to Dragonstone with their five dragons. As long as Dany follows the route of her ancestors, she should have few problems.

I am not worried about logistics of crossing the Narrow Sea, I am concerned with the logistics of coming to the eastern shore of Narrow sea. Crossing the Narrow Sea is the last, and IMO, the easiest thing. She has yet to decide whether she will go to Narrow sea by sea or by land, and both ways are quite dangerous.

Dany's dragons are also augmented with 10,000 Unsullied, the world's best infantry, along with the Seconds Sons, the Stormcrows, a large following of freed slaves and later the Iron Fleet with possibly the corsair king, Gerion Lannister to add his pirate fleet to hers along with whatever ships are captured in the Battle of Meereen.

Well, that is the best possible scenario, but with battle of Meereen at the moment and possible Volantese opposition, that number may vary a lot. She may gain some support, but she may also lose a lot.

If he believes (or chooses to believe) he is the real thing. I could totally be misremembering, but doesn't he have reservations about that? (from WoW spoiler chapters). I just think Dorne is more of a wildcard and that as long as Doran gets his revenge on the Lannisters, he will be practical above all else.

He does, and he sends Arianne to see and question him. But, the boy believes he is Rhaegar's son. I believe that little lie no one but Dany will be able to slay. Doran's allegiance won't be between Dany and Lannisters, it will be between Dany and Aegon, and as Apple pointed out, Aegon is far more logical choice for ally than Dany.

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PROS:

1. Dragons are rather powerful magical beings that can kill a lot of people at once.

2. Dany has not one but 3 dragons

3. Dany's dragons are growing with each day, and have already tasted blood. Drogon in the pit, and Viseryon and Rhaegal by burning all in front themselves in Battle of Meereen (Barristan's and Tyrion's chapters from TWOW)

4. There is psychological factor in dragons, resulting, as we have seen in TPATQ, in fear and respect

5. Dragons can be interpreted as symbols of true leader

Yes, nice summary, on this we can agree. Though the cons look exaggerated to me.

CONS:

1. Dany's dragons are only 2 years old, and as such are not formidable beasts, as was dragons during Conquest, or some of the dragons used in Dance of dragons. I even doubt that any of the dragons used in battle were actually that young.

2. Dany has 3 dragons, but she has no riders. We already know how it functions. Dany can't ride Vyserion and Rhaegal, so she will need two riders. Who will those be? Danu, at the moment, especially because of Quaithe's warnings don't trust anyone, and it would be rather tough job to convince her that some potential dragonriders are her allies.

3. Dany is half the world away from Westeros. She needs to travel across the seas in winter with vast army to match other claimants. How will she transport those dragons? By ships? How much time would it need before some of those ships burn? Remember that no one in Qarth port wanted to transport Dany and her dragons by ship.

4. Dragons, and we learned this from TPATQ, can be killed. We are not talking anymore about some sort of magical weaponry, like proposed weirwood arrows. No, dragons can be killed by force and by men. Dragonslayers are not some legendary term, they actually existed. Is it tough? Certainly. Impossible? No. from scorpion bolts, to other dragons, possible poisoning, dragons indeed can be killed. And when we know that the beast such as Meraxes was killed by scorpion bolt, ok, through his eye, what do you think will be needed for killing much smaller beasts, Dany's dragons objectively are.

  1. That is true but think about this. Right now, anyone opposing her in Westeros does not possess a dragon. Secondly, the main advantage of such a young dragon is only limited to inspiring fervor in own forces, terror in the enemy, basic air reconnaisance etc. The army that has a dragon will be strategically well placed, and will most proably not be suffering any surprises.

  2. I don't think she even needs all three dragons. Anyhow, most probably the dragons will fall to Tyrion and Vic. Vic is damn stupid and will most probably remain loyal to her. Tyrion, that self serving scum, I have no idea what he'll do. If you believe Fire Eater, they're going to marry. :ack:

  3. There is difference between a beggar Khaleesi and Aegon the conqueror reborn. :P Ther are enough ships from Ironborn she can use. Some Volantene vessels will be captured in the battle as well. And most importantly, Essossi will be more than happy to see the backside of her, so that they can return to their old abhorable ways.

  4. Of course they can be killed, but Dany will have (i) Good counsel against that now she has Tyrion (ii) Is already a lot less trusting because of Quaithe. This lessens the likelihood of a dragon death by a ruse or poison etc. Scorpion bolts on the other hand work fine on chained dragons. On bigger dragons it is easier to aim as well. With a rather smallish dragon aiming a siege weapon is rather difficult. And Drogon has already had a spear attack on the back. Count on it his death won't be due to similar mundane reasons.
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Thinking out loud here, but are people perhaps erring in the belief that Tyrion is somehow this font of accurate dragonlore info? Or at least overestimating how much he really knows/how useful he'll really be? Put it this way: Knowing accurate information about dragons depends on getting accurate information about dragons. Tyrion's info is only as solid as the material from which he gleaned it, and ... well there's a reason that "The Death of Dragons" is under lock and key at the Citadel, and Septon Barth's book isn't.


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Thinking out loud here, but are people perhaps erring in the belief that Tyrion is somehow this font of accurate dragonlore info? Or at least overestimating how much he really knows/how useful he'll really be? Put it this way: Knowing accurate information about dragons depends on getting accurate information about dragons. Tyrion's info is only as solid as the material from which he gleaned it, and ... well there's a reason that "The Death of Dragons" is under lock and key at the Citadel, and Septon Barth's book isn't.

That can be a possibility, but honestly a very thin one, seeing that it pretty much trumps even the requirement for this much build up on a character, where his fascination and curiosity towards dragonlore is beeing shown from his (probably) first or second POV chapter.

The Death of Dragons is most likely locked because other than dragonlore it contains some information about how much the Maesters were responsible for the death of the dragons.

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We can assume (I think) that Dany will survive her encounter with Khal Jhaqo, and augment her armies with some portion of the Dothraki.

It seems probable that her forces will win the battle of Meereen. It's been well-signalled that the slaves and followers of R'hllor in Volantis will revolt in her favour. The Tattered Prince seems ready to switch sides. The Red Priests preach that she's the reincarnation of Azhor Ahai. All in all, she's likely to have immense naval and military resources at her disposal, in order to invade Westeros, at some point in TWOW. On top of that, every Lord Paramount has disaffected Bannermen, and hundreds of lords and knights have been dispossessed in the WOTFK, and would happily side with anyone who can restore their lands, and who looks like winning.

All in all, I think she'll be far and away, the single most powerful player of the game of thrones by the end of TWOW.

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That can be a possibility, but honestly a very thin one, seeing that it pretty much trumps even the requirement for this much build up on a character, where his fascination and curiosity towards dragonlore is beeing shown from his (probably) first or second POV chapter.

The Death of Dragons is most likely locked because other than dragonlore it contains some information about how much the Maesters were responsible for the death of the dragons.

I just think it's a little overly convenient, that's all. Tyrion puts so much stock in his books, learning, intelligence and so on that I think it'd be hilarious if it came back to bite him in the ass, i.e. he got bad information. I think too many people take it as a foregone conclusion that he's going to strut in and solve everything dragon-related that's wrong.

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That can be a possibility, but honestly a very thin one, seeing that it pretty much trumps even the requirement for this much build up on a character, where his fascination and curiosity towards dragonlore is beeing shown from his (probably) first or second POV chapter.

The Death of Dragons is most likely locked because other than dragonlore it contains some information about how much the Maesters were responsible for the death of the dragons.

My impression is that the leading Maesters at the Citadel are a pretty cocksure and complacent group of people, who've convinced themselves that magic doesn't exist because they don't want it to exist. I'm not sure they'd be much use to any anti-Dany faction.

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Yes, nice summary, on this we can agree. Though the cons look exaggerated to me.

Are they? I mean, each argument is relatively plausible and even likely to a certain degree. There are a lot of variables people usually forget when these things are concerned, and I just try to cover all the basis. If you think that Dany could get out of imprisonment with Dothraki, battle of Meereen, and Volantis, travel across the world during winter unharmed, then yeap, my pros list sounds exaggerated. But, IMO, it is a very real list of problems Dany might face.

  1. That is true but think about this. Right now, anyone opposing her in Westeros does not possess a dragon. Secondly, the main advantage of such a young dragon is only limited to inspiring fervor in own forces, terror in the enemy, basic air reconnaisance etc. The army that has a dragon will be strategically well placed, and will most proably not be suffering any surprises.

  2. I don't think she even needs all three dragons. Anyhow, most probably the dragons will fall to Tyrion and Vic. Vic is damn stupid and will most probably remain loyal to her. Tyrion, that self serving scum, I have no idea what he'll do. If you believe Fire Eater, they're going to marry. :ack:

  3. There is difference between a beggar Khaleesi and Aegon the conqueror reborn. :P Ther are enough ships from Ironborn she can use. Some Volantene vessels will be captured in the battle as well. And most importantly, Essossi will be more than happy to see the backside of her, so that they can return to their old abhorable ways.

  4. Of course they can be killed, but Dany will have (i) Good counsel against that now she has Tyrion (ii) Is already a lot less trusting because of Quaithe. This lessens the likelihood of a dragon death by a ruse or poison etc. Scorpion bolts on the other hand work fine on chained dragons. On bigger dragons it is easier to aim as well. With a rather smallish dragon aiming a siege weapon is rather difficult. And Drogon has already had a spear attack on the back. Count on it his death won't be due to similar mundane reasons.

1. Yes, PR is powerful thing as we have repeatedly mention it on this thread. But, when we surpass the PR factor, when they start fighting, their flaws will eventually be visible. Or we believe that everyone in Westeros are that stupid and uninformed?

2. She doesn't need all three dragons? Come on... What she will beat the three time bigger armies with? Her killer smile? She needs those dragons, all three of them actually, and she has problems because, and I know people will frown on this, she doesn't believe them. Why do we assume Dany will be so eager to trust either to Tyrion or Victarion given their reputation? Most likely, we will have some conundrum between them before they come to some amicable solution.
3. Yes, Victarion has ships. Have you considered for a second that those ships are already full?
4. Meraxes wasn't killed in captivity, IIRC.
All in all, this is the classic pulling in two directions. You consider that Dany will jump over all the problems she might face unharmed. My, rather much more realistic opinion, that she will face at least certain issues.

Thinking out loud here, but are people perhaps erring in the belief that Tyrion is somehow this font of accurate dragonlore info? Or at least overestimating how much he really knows/how useful he'll really be? Put it this way: Knowing accurate information about dragons depends on getting accurate information about dragons. Tyrion's info is only as solid as the material from which he gleaned it, and ... well there's a reason that "The Death of Dragons" is under lock and key at the Citadel, and Septon Barth's book isn't.

And not just that. People here apparently are counting that when Tyrion and Dany meets, they run into each other arms, hugging and kissing... Needless to say, that is an extremely wrong idea... If she hates Starks so much, what do you all think will happen when she meets a Lannister?

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My impression is that the leading Maesters at the Citadel are a pretty cocksure and complacent group of people, who've convinced themselves that magic doesn't exist because they don't want it to exist. I'm not sure they'd be much use to any anti-Dany faction.

Yes, I don't think there's much danger in the maesters at this point. I'm much more interested in the Faceless Men and their interest in what I presume is the "Death of Dragons" book.

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We can assume (I think) that Dany will survive her encounter with Khal Jhaqo, and augment her armies with some portion of the Dothraki.

It seems probable that her forces will win the battle of Meereen. It's been well-signalled that the slaves and followers of R'hllor in Volantis will revolt in her favour. The Tattered Prince seems ready to switch sides. The Red Priests preach that she's the reincarnation of Azhor Ahai. All in all, she's likely to have immense naval and military resources at her disposal, in order to invade Westeros, at some point in TWOW. On top of that, every Lord Paramount has disaffected Bannermen, and hundreds of lords and knights have been dispossessed in the WOTFK, and would happily side with anyone who can restore their lands, and who looks like winning.

All in all, I think she'll be far and away, the single most powerful player of the game of thrones by the end of TWOW.

I imagine also Braavos, Lys, Myr, Pentos, Qohor, Lorath, and entire Essos and Westeros will give her armies and help her cause? Have I forgotten anyone? I do believe that she will win and that she will come to Westeros, but let we not pretend like it will be a smooth ride.

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I just think it's a little overly convenient, that's all. Tyrion puts so much stock in his books, learning, intelligence and so on that I think it'd be hilarious if it came back to bite him in the ass, i.e. he got bad information. I think too many people take it as a foregone conclusion that he's going to strut in and solve everything dragon-related that's wrong.

I'd actually like that very much. He mentions in every second chapter that "his wits" is the only thing he can trust - the man has too high an opinion of himself.

Are they? I mean, each argument is relatively plausible and even likely to a certain degree. There are a lot of variables people usually forget when these things are concerned, and I just try to cover all the basis. If you think that Dany could get out of imprisonment with Dothraki, battle of Meereen, and Volantis, travel across the world during winter unharmed, then yeap, my pros list sounds exaggerated. But, IMO, it is a very real list of problems Dany might face.

1. Yes, PR is powerful thing as we have repeatedly mention it on this thread. But, when we surpass the PR factor, when they start fighting, their flaws will eventually be visible. Or we believe that everyone in Westeros are that stupid and uninformed?

2. She doesn't need all three dragons? Come on... What she will beat the three time bigger armies with? Her killer smile? She needs those dragons, all three of them actually, and she has problems because, and I know people will frown on this, she doesn't believe them. Why do we assume Dany will be so eager to trust either to Tyrion or Victarion given their reputation? Most likely, we will have some conundrum between them before they come to some amicable solution.
3. Yes, Victarion has ships. Have you considered for a second that those ships are already full?
4. Meraxes wasn't killed in captivity, IIRC.
All in all, this is the classic pulling in two directions. You consider that Dany will jump over all the problems she might face unharmed. My, rather much more realistic opinion, that she will face at least certain issues.

And not just that. People here apparently are counting that when Tyrion and Dany meets, they run into each other arms, hugging and kissing... Needless to say, that is an extremely wrong idea... If she hates Starks so much, what do you all think will happen when she meets a Lannister?

Come on, mine is not a sugary fairy tale whitewashed version. :tantrum: I do think she'll have a lot of troubles coming to Westeros. I count all my arguments to be perfectly realistic honestly. I merely suggest the optimist version of the events, you recount the negative. These are all valid possibilities, they may not come to pass of course. We just have to see which side the stick will eventually fall.

This is just to steer the discussion on the other side. So far the thread focuses too much on the cons. Honestly speaking, the opening line of your thread " the first thing that came to my mind was what tough job Dany will have in winning IT" calls for biased discussion in the first place. The premise should be kept neutral so that both sides of an argument can be discussed in an unbiased way. :)

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I imagine also Braavos, Lys, Myr, Pentos, Qohor, Lorath, and entire Essos and Westeros will give her armies and help her cause? Have I forgotten anyone? I do believe that she will win and that she will come to Westeros, but let we not pretend like it will be a smooth ride.

I'm not convinced the other free cities would willingly assist her. They might do out of fear, perhaps. Braavos seems committed to Stannis, now.

I think her biggest problem would be logistics. It's one thing to have a vast army. It's another thing to transport them to Westeros and keep them fed and equipped in a starving country.

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I'd actually like that very much. He mentions in every second chapter that "his wits" is the only thing he can trust - the man has too high an opinion of himself.

Come on, mine is not a sugary fairy tale whitewashed version. :tantrum: I do think she'll have a lot of troubles coming to Westeros. I count all my arguments to be perfectly realistic honestly. I merely suggest the optimist version of the events, you recount the negative. These are all valid possibilities, they may not come to pass of course. We just have to see which side the stick will eventually fall.

This is just to steer the discussion on the other side. So far the thread focuses too much on the cons. Honestly speaking, the opening line of your thread " the first thing that came to my mind was what tough job Dany will have in winning IT" calls for biased discussion in the first place. The premise should be kept neutral so that both sides of an argument can be discussed in an unbiased way. :)

OK, here is what you count on:

1. She will survive unharmed Khal Jhogo;s imprisonment, and he will join her. Even though she is a woman, ready to sail across the Narrow sea

2. Then she will return to Meereen, where her side will win. Also, I imagine that number of her soldiers haven't lessened.

3. When she meets Tyrion, thy will hit right away. No matter that he is a Lannister, or the fact that Quaithe specifically warned her about him. The same applies to Victarion.

4. Her two rouge dragons will become useful, even though we know from TPATQ that it is highely unlikely

5. She will cross half the world, during winter, with armies, dragons without consequences.

6. She will come to Westeros where everybody will tremble at the sight of dragons, and almost no one will oppose her.

OK, I can live with her coming unharmed from some of these issues, but from all? You are well aware that Dany is by far the only character that was constantly rising in power. Well, knowing Martin, and how he likes to turn the table when necessary, Dany might actually face a problem. That is realistic, not some version of events where she magically appear to Westeros.

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We can assume (I think) that Dany will survive her encounter with Khal Jhaqo, and augment her armies with some portion of the Dothraki.

It seems probable that her forces will win the battle of Meereen. It's been well-signalled that the slaves and followers of R'hllor in Volantis will revolt in her favour. The Tattered Prince seems ready to switch sides. The Red Priests preach that she's the reincarnation of Azhor Ahai. All in all, she's likely to have immense naval and military resources at her disposal, in order to invade Westeros, at some point in TWOW. On top of that, every Lord Paramount has disaffected Bannermen, and hundreds of lords and knights have been dispossessed in the WOTFK, and would happily side with anyone who can restore their lands, and who looks like winning.

All in all, I think she'll be far and away, the single most powerful player of the game of thrones by the end of TWOW.

I agree with all of this. I'm confused by the notion I see around here often, that Dany will have no allies in Westeros. It seems like wishful thinking by some people. The war would be over pretty damn fast if she doesn't get any alliances once she's in Westeros. I also believe any Targ supporters who are on the fence about Dany or Aegon, the dragons will sway them to her side. Unless Aegon gets a hold of one or two of them himself. Which at this point seems likely. How would it be a dance of dragons with only one side possessing them?
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OK, I can live with her coming unharmed from some of these issues, but from all? You are well aware that Dany is by far the only character that was constantly rising in power. Well, knowing Martin, and how he likes to turn the table when necessary, Dany might actually face a problem. That is realistic, not some version of events where she magically appear to Westeros.

But that is what I say too, she'll come unharmed from some, but some will prove a challenge. I am a Dany fan yes, but I'm not being unreasonable to defend her here.

OK, here is what you count on:

1. She will survive unharmed Khal Jhogo;s imprisonment, and he will join her. Even though she is a woman, ready to sail across the Narrow sea

2. Then she will return to Meereen, where her side will win. Also, I imagine that number of her soldiers haven't lessened.

3. When she meets Tyrion, thy will hit right away. No matter that he is a Lannister, or the fact that Quaithe specifically warned her about him. The same applies to Victarion.

4. Her two rouge dragons will become useful, even though we know from TPATQ that it is highely unlikely

5. She will cross half the world, during winter, with armies, dragons without consequences.

6. She will come to Westeros where everybody will tremble at the sight of dragons, and almost no one will oppose her.

  1. Imprisonment is a presumption here.

Her side will win. What standing army does she have afterwards, I don't know. Unsullied will have suffered losses but you can safely add ironborn to the tally.

I never said that. notice the :ack: I hate the very notion, as I despise Tyrion. I said if you were to believe Fire Eater. The extent to which their relationship goes imo, is both using each other for their own means.

I said one dragon is enough for her as long as the other two are not being controlled by her enemies. You suggested that she needs all three to which I disagree.

She will cross half the world, but not without consequence. But she will definitely acquire fresh support in Westeros.

Many will oppose her, many will support her too. When a realm is in such chaos, count on it, people will support whomever they think will win, whomever they think they can profit from. Old personal grievances will open up in such a time, and any such divide may serve to help her. For instance, if Martells support Aegon, count on the Yronwoods to support Dany etc.

I agree with all of this. I'm confused by the notion I see around here often, that Dany will have no allies in Westeros. It seems like wishful thinking by some people. The war would be over pretty damn fast if she doesn't get any alliances once she's in Westeros. I also believe any Targ supporters who are on the fence about Dany or Aegon, the dragons will sway them to her side. Unless Aegon gets a hold of one or two of them himself. Which at this point seems likely. How would it be a dance of dragons with only one side possessing them?

Agreed and agreed. Sean rightly points out how much support she can gather from Essos alone. And what armies she loses will be replaced by fresh support from Westeros.

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As much as I would rather have Dany make landfall at Casterly Rock over on the West Coast, landing in the Vale is a better option strategically. The Vale has an army 20,000 strong that would give Dany a huge advantage if she can convince them to fight for her. She herself only has less than 10,000 Unsullied, give or take a couple thousand sellswords and Ironborn if they follow her after the Battle of Meereen.



Also, the Vale has been untouched by war and is fully provisioned from harvests and such, so she could potentially have a safe place to feed her colossal band of useless mouths to feed if she takes her (non-fighting) people to Westeros with her.



However, if Dany lands in the Vale, she had best learn the truth about her father and the Starks before she arrives, or else she is going to have problems with Sansa.


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Dragons were never WMD. The faceless men have the real WMD. Allegedly if they were responsible of the Doom of Valyria (some even say Hardhome).

No they do not, and they only reason anyone says that they had anything to do with the doom is because of a foolish misreading of something that the Kindly Man told Arya, the which misreading seems to be a matter of taking the KM's remark completely out of context.

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As much as I would rather have Dany make landfall at Casterly Rock over on the West Coast, landing in the Vale is a better option strategically. The Vale has an army 20,000 strong that would give Dany a huge advantage if she can convince them to fight for her. She herself only has less than 10,000 Unsullied, give or take a couple thousand sellswords and Ironborn if they follow her after the Battle of Meereen.

Also, the Vale has been untouched by war and is fully provisioned from harvests and such, so she could potentially have a safe place to feed her colossal band of useless mouths to feed if she takes her (non-fighting) people to Westeros with her.

However, if Dany lands in the Vale, she had best learn the truth about her father and the Starks before she arrives, or else she is going to have problems with Sansa.

I don't think the Vale will fight for her.

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