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[TPATQ and TWOW spoilers] Where does Dany stand right now?


Mladen

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Going back to an earlier point regarding Doran, I was originally talking about what Dany expects when she arrives in Westeros. So when I said that Dorne's choices were her or the Lannisters, this is without knowledge of the Aegon factor. Aside from that, I still don't think that Doran's choice is clear-cut between the two. I don't think he cares about political power, but rather revenge. Securing Viserys/Daenerys via marriages I saw as more of a way for them to assure V or D that, yes, they do have support in Westeros and it would be viable for them to think about taking down the usurpers. It seems to me that having his child as consort was a very nice side benefit, not the actual goal. We obviously disagree, so we shall have to wait and see :)



As for Tyrion's knowledge of the dragons, well, I think that he will help clarify things for Dany. Since she has the actual dragon experience, I think that she will be able to decide which advice from Tyrion is actually useful. If Tyrion tells her that dragons like to eat raw goats according to Important Book, she will obviously know that is wrong through her own experience. If he tells her what the dragon saddles look like and how they differ from that of a horse, well, that is obviously useful knowledge and she can filter through it and see that it sounds right from her own riding experience. They will have to be a team.



I don't think they will rush into each other's arms by any means, but I think that Tyrion's story will intrigue her and she will listen with a wary ear. She could go as far as keeping him prisoner to question him, and build a relationship from there.


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Mladen wrote:

"Given that Marwyn knows that Dany won't find any friend at Citadel, and given that we have been almost told that Maesters are responsible for killing dragons (in what way, I am not sure), I wouldn't count on them being unprepared. Oldtown is one of the biggest ports in Westeros, and news travel quickly. Soon, half the Westeros will know or at least will have heard about Dany and her dragons. So, believing that Maesters would be unprepared is rather naive."

The citadel may know by now, perhaps even by the end of AFfC (Marwyn clearly has good information as of the beginning of that book). Be that as it may, how are they supposed to get to Dragonstone with Oldtown harbor locked down by the Ironmen? (She will land at Dragonstone first because it is the seat of her house and because Dorne will look to be a bit of a dicey prospect given the death of Quentyn.)

Also Marwyn will presumably tell her not to trust the Grey Sheep, which means that any preparation they engage in will require troops and the means to get them to the other side of Westeros and then across to Dragonstone. If they want at the dragons they will have to use force. They could cross by land to King's Landing perhaps and join up with Cersei and Mace, assuming those two are not at each other's throats, but then they will be joining a war against an enemy who will be at least to some extent prepared for them.

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3. When she meets Tyrion, thy will hit right away. No matter that he is a Lannister, or the fact that Quaithe specifically warned her about him. The same applies to Victarion.

Bah - my memory is bad. Did Quaithe warn her about Tyrion or just tell her he was coming? I remember beware the perfumed senechal, but I don't remember specifically warning against Tyrion.

eta: NM. Quaithe tells her to trust none of them. hmmm ... I still think she will forge some sort of alliance with Tyrion. She didn't seem too terribly untrusting of Quentyn, just uninterested. Interesting. The only reason to distrust Quentyn is because he had designs on her dragon, but that wasn't his original intent and only happened after she spurned him. Self-fulfilling prophecy right there. Perhaps her distrust of Tyrion because of the warning is what will cause him to do something untrustworthy? Then there is the question of Quaithe's motives, but that's a different discussion because it doesn't matter. What matters is that Dany takes her at face value and will act based on that. Perhaps Dany starts to question Quaithe's intentions or sees that she caused Quentyn to act against her and will try to avoid that with Tyrion? So many possibilities.

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Bah - my memory is bad. Did Quaithe warn her about Tyrion or just tell her he was coming? I remember beware the perfumed senechal, but I don't remember specifically warning against Tyrion.

"No. Hear me, Daenerys Targaryen. The glass candles are burning. Soon comes the pale mare, and after her the others. Kraken and dark flame, lion and griffin, the sun’s son and the mummer’s dragon. Trust none of them. Remember the Undying. Beware the perfumed seneschal"
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"No. Hear me, Daenerys Targaryen. The glass candles are burning. Soon comes the pale mare, and after her the others. Kraken and dark flame, lion and griffin, the sun’s son and the mummer’s dragon. Trust none of them. Remember the Undying. Beware the perfumed seneschal"

That doesn't specifically mean Tyrion though.

There are tons of Lannisters.

I mean, its most likely Tyrion, but there's always a chance its not.

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That doesn't specifically mean Tyrion though.

There are tons of Lannisters.

Maybe, but my bets are on Tyrion. Which else would you suggest though? He is the only one actively coming to her. Other Lannisters she may encounter, but they are not the ones actively coming to her. Not even the Corsair King if you believe him to be Gerion that is.

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And he might decide that his interests are better-served by Aegon anyway, real or not. The big "in" he had with Dany was an alliance through her marrying Quentyn. Without that, he has no surefire way to cement an alliance with her (read: nothing is in it for him), unlike with Arianne, whom he can marry to Aegon and have a huge amount of political power.

If it's between Aegon and Dany at this point, he's obviously going with Aegon.

Assuming Jon Connington does not block this. He wanted Aegon free to marry Dany, after all. To be sure, Aegon is becoming more independent, and he may decide that a Dorne in hand is worth two of the remaining Houses Paramount in the bush. And he may decide this with a little help from Arianne. Then again she has been burnt once with her Myrcella plot: she may be more cautious this time. A lot of balls in the air, and until we see TWoW, we won't know where some of the important ones will land.

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Going back to an earlier point regarding Doran, I was originally talking about what Dany expects when she arrives in Westeros. So when I said that Dorne's choices were her or the Lannisters, this is without knowledge of the Aegon factor. Aside from that, I still don't think that Doran's choice is clear-cut between the two. I don't think he cares about political power, but rather revenge. Securing Viserys/Daenerys via marriages I saw as more of a way for them to assure V or D that, yes, they do have support in Westeros and it would be viable for them to think about taking down the usurpers. It seems to me that having his child as consort was a very nice side benefit, not the actual goal. We obviously disagree, so we shall have to wait and see :)

there.

Dornish policy isn't really in Doran's hands anymore.

. He's handed over to Arianne the power, in effect, to declare war, by accepting Aegon's legitimacy. And Arianne is very ambitious, and very bitter towards Dany. Despite the fact that it's hinted that Arianne is hoping for Quentyn's death, she'll be sure to use it to stir opposition to Dany.

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Maybe, but my bets are on Tyrion. Which else would you suggest though? He is the only one actively coming to her. Other Lannisters she may encounter, but they are not the ones actively coming to her. Not even the Corsair King if you believe him to be Gerion that is.

Aegon and JonCon don't seem to be anymore either, although they might once she gets in or near Westeros. Anyway, I agree that the prophecy likely does refer to Tyrion, but even if it did refer to Gerion or another secret/minor Lannister it likely won't matter, as Tyrion will be the most/only obvious 'lion' to approach her and therefore the only one to gain her suspicions. It makes sense that he's the one to distrust as well, given his motivation seems to be more about fucking over a lot of people in Westeros than helping Dany triumph, which could come back to bite her if she wholeheartedly trusted his council.

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Aegon and JonCon don't seem to be anymore either, although they might once she gets in or near Westeros. Anyway, I agree that the prophecy likely does refer to Tyrion, but even if it did refer to Gerion or another secret/minor Lannister it likely won't matter, as Tyrion will be the most/only obvious 'lion' to approach her and therefore the only one to gain her suspicions. It make senses that he's the one to distrust as well, given his motivation seems to be more about fucking over a lot of people in Westeros than helping Dany triumph, which could come back to bite her if she wholeheartedly trusted his council.

Yes, that part disturbs me as well, that JonCon and FAegon have rather abandoned their journey to Meereen. But as you say, Tyrion is the best option at the moment.

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Maybe, but my bets are on Tyrion. Which else would you suggest though? He is the only one actively coming to her. Other Lannisters she may encounter, but they are not the ones actively coming to her. Not even the Corsair King if you believe him to be Gerion that is.

I was thinking there was a smidgen of a chance Gerion might have been the "lion"

Like, I'l agree that it was most likely Tyrion, but I don't think its an absolute fact.

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I don't think the Vale will fight for her.

Why not? They have to join the war at some point, otherwise they are a pretty useless part of the story. Seeing as they haven't declared for anyone yet, I wouldn't be surprised to see them back Dany, or Aegon for that matter.
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I'd kind of forgotten that Arianne has the power dealing with Aegon right now. Puts a wrinkle on it. Also, we have fuck all idea when Dany is going to make an appearance. I'm wondering what happens when people declare for Aegon, then Dany waltzes in with her babies. Stick with the classic model, or go for the new and improved Targ?


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Why not? They have to join the war at some point, otherwise they are a pretty useless part of the story. Seeing as they haven't declared for anyone yet, I wouldn't be surprised to see them back Dany, or Aegon for that matter.

But the Vale is Littlefinger and holy Christ, I can't predict what that little fucker is plotting.

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Why not? They have to join the war at some point, otherwise they are a pretty useless part of the story. Seeing as they haven't declared for anyone yet, I wouldn't be surprised to see them back Dany, or Aegon for that matter.

Which Vale lords fought for the Targs last time?

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I'd kind of forgotten that Arianne has the power dealing with Aegon right now. Puts a wrinkle on it. Also, we have fuck all idea when Dany is going to make an appearance. I'm wondering what happens when people declare for Aegon, then Dany waltzes in with her babies.

What will happen is what the books subtly call Dracarys. :lol:

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