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[TPATQ and TWOW spoilers] Where does Dany stand right now?


Mladen

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I didn't know any did, I thought they all backed the Arryns.

Nope. Jon and Robert had to fight loyalist in the Vale before Robert fought loyalist in the Stormlands. I'm not entirely sure, but I believe it was mentioned that Gulltown is somewhat loyal to Targaryens.

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I'd kind of forgotten that Arianne has the power dealing with Aegon right now. Puts a wrinkle on it. Also, we have fuck all idea when Dany is going to make an appearance. I'm wondering what happens when people declare for Aegon, then Dany waltzes in with her babies. Stick with the classic model, or go for the new and improved Targ?

On the first point, not entirely: she still has to report back to Doran, and he still controls which way Dorne goes. On the second, it depends on what Dany does once she arrives: if she listens to Marwyn and investigates the situation at the wall first, then---besides confusing the hell(s) out of most of Westeros---she may decide that the War for the Dawn takes priority and that could lead in various directions: roasted Boltons, a temporary entente with Stannis, a visit to the Gates of the Moon, an encounter with Jon if he is still alive (more likely than not IMHO), and the like. I would be amused if she goes that way and leaves Varys, Mace, Cersei, Jon C., Aegon, Arianne, Doran, maybe Littlefinger, and a whole bunch of other folks scratching their heads :)

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Wow, a lot of posts since this morning... OK, I will reply to issues raised in thread, without quoting specifically anyone:



1. Dany and Tyrion



You have to understand that at least they will have a rocky start. Tyrion is not the most likable person, and Dany hates him because of his surname. I doubt Barristan has a good opinion about him too. Plus, there is that Quaithe's warning. I am not going into whether it is genuine or what are the intentions behind it, the simple truth here is that Dany trusts her. So, when she was speaking about lion and griffin, she was most definitely speaking about Tyrion and JonCon. The line that follower was: Trust none of them. Which ultimately means Dany will have at least some reservations towards Tyrion.



2. Doran and Targaryen shit sandwich



As for Doran, the situation is rather complex. Aegon is at the Storm's End, JonCon send a letter about boy being genuine, Aegon believe he is the real deal, and I am not sure whether Arianne, or anyone as for that matter (except of Dany, her being the slayer of lies), would come to different conclusion. Now, we can conclude that at some point Dorne will side with Aegon, and they will wait for Daenerys and her dragons, to all unite and crush Tyrell/Lannister alliance. But, once Dany finds out about Aegon, driven by HotU vision and Quaithe's warning, her being slayer of lies, and TBH her not-so-small ego, will all make her believe Aegon is just a fake pretender. That will put Dorne between 2 Targaryen pretenders. And with Quentyn's death, inability to side with Dany is rather obvious. That is why Doran/Arianne will most likely side with Aegon. Him being their blood, him being free to marry Arianne... In their eyes it's a win/win situation.



3. Vale and Sansa/Dany collision



I have to admit that when it comes to pieces of foreshadowing and Dance of dragons 2.0 theories, there is one person you should all listen - Fire Eater. By far, and I am not exaggerating in this, he has only been able to create a plausible web of events, that are not fanfiction, but rather impressive shown deductive skills in theorizing about the future. Now, where he and I politely and in friendly spirit disagree is in fact Sansa's fate. Given that his ideas can be read on his great thread about DoD 2.0, I will just present mine, which is partially written on this thread. It is my opinion that Nestor Royce has figured out who Alayne is (after all, they spent significant time at the same place, plus Royce words are "We remember"). Given that LF wanted Sansa to marry Harry, I do believe that Nestor will let LF play his game, but only asking LF to recognize Alayne as his heir, so Harry wouldn't have to marry a bastard. So Alayne becomes heiress of Harrenhal, and before the wedding, after LF does his usual daredevil game under Cersei's very nose (I even imagine she will personally sign those documents, thinking how she will ensure Vale support in fights with Aegon), Sansa, Royce and others will lead LF to his demise, and untimely death. Now, that Vale lords know Sansa's identity, they can't marry her, but they won't harm her due to SR. And since the boy is very attached to her, I actually see Sansa playing SR into naming her as his Lady Protector. Thus Sansa, Royce and Harry will govern the Vale at the time when Dany comes to Westeros. Whether Sansa will be a connection point for Dany to Jon, or the two of them will clash, just like every pair of Queens/ladies did in the past, is still uncertain. But, at the end, Sansa, through her Alayne persona, and later through Whent roots might keep Harrenhal, and become Ptolemaic pandan of a Queen in Riverlands and Vale to Jon's King in the North. And gioven the powerful symbolism of ladies in Vale - Sharra Arryn and Maid of the Vale, I think Sansa will support Daenerys to a certain extent.



4. Back on track, who will actually support Dany?



This is rather difficult question. If we count Baratheons, Lannisters, Tyrells and even Martells out, there is not a lot of choice. Dany will have to ask for help the very same people Rhaenyra did - Vale, Riverlands, North. But that is all wild card. Riverlands are ruined and in chaos with Freys dropping like flies. North has backed Stannis' right, plus they have the army of the Others coming for them. Vale? Now, if we count on Sansa to rule, there is two way. Fully support Dany in order to grant her annulment, or help Jon, if he asks it. So, beside the horde Dany is bringing from Essos, I wouldn't count quickly on anyone supporting her. My money would be on Vale and later North and Riverlands...




5. Problems are there, she needs to hit at wall at some point



Let we not kid ourselves, Dany's, just like many's situation isn't easy. That doesn't make it impossible to come out as a winner, but it needs to be done properly. I do believe she will come to Westeros at some point, but first she needs to fix certain things and resolve the Meereenese knot. At some point of her road, she has to meet a bump. It is as simple as that. It is not hatred towards character, it is rather objecting observation. And with her having some unresolved issues coming to Westeros, I imagine that Dance 2.0 is indeed becoming more interesting.


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Given that Marwyn knows that Dany won't find any friend at Citadel, and given that we have been almost told that Maesters are responsible for killing dragons (in what way, I am not sure), I wouldn't count on them being unprepared. Oldtown is one of the biggest ports in Westeros, and news travel quickly. Soon, half the Westeros will know or at least will have heard about Dany and her dragons. So, believing that Maesters would be unprepared is rather naive...

Oh, I don't deny that. I deny their supposed strength to prepare... As I'm pretty sure Oldtown will be sacked in WOW.

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WRT to the Vale, I actually see LF as someone more likely to steer the Vale in her direction, at least before he finds out Tyrion is riding with her. IMHO, he's more likely to (try to) use her as a force to spread more chaos in the realm to weaken his enemies and further his goals. Even more, LF refers to the "Three Queens" and Danny might very well be one of them.



Sansa/Bronze Yohn, OTOH, don't seem to have reasons to support her. The Vale can align with the Stark loyalists in the North and secure the North, the Vale and the Riverlands without the need to fight the Reach. The option I see is aligning with Danny as long as she marches to support the Watch.



But how do you guys think dragons would fare in a snowstorm? I looks like that, in a fight between Others and Dragons, the Others will have the upper hand.



Another thing that caught my attention is the guerilla warfare Aemond used. That's a very useful way to use young, nimble, dragons and it seems to align with the Ironborn understanding of warfare. It doesn't seem the type of war Danny would want to wage, though. Then again, tPatQ show that Danny might never control her other two dragons. There are no horns or spells in tPatQ, which makes Victarion's use of the horn uncertain.



And then we also have Nettles' taming of Sheepstealer. Tyrion surely knows about that, and it also proves a non Targaryen can ride a dragon.



Too bad none will be able to use dragons to redecorate the Twins, Harrenhall style.


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This is going back several pages to discussing Dany's path to Westeros, and most seem to think she'll go by sea and through the Stepstones. I agree this is a likely course.

Now, we've seen Addam of Hull, a Velaryon bastard, become a dragon rider.

Is it coincidence that there's a Velaryon bastard pirate lord who happens to closely resemble Dany's brother currently stirring shit up in the Stepstones? Seems highly likely to me that Aurane Waters might get himself a dragon.

If he and Dany meet, I think she would be drawn to him based on his looks (he has that super special Targ appearance going for him) and he has the personality she likes in men.

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WRT to the Vale, I actually see LF as someone more likely to steer the Vale in her direction, at least before he finds out Tyrion is riding with her. IMHO, he's more likely to (try to) use her as a force to spread more chaos in the realm to weaken his enemies and further his goals. Even more, LF refers to the "Three Queens" and Danny might very well be one of them.

Sansa/Bronze Yohn, OTOH, don't seem to have reasons to support her. The Vale can align with the Stark loyalists in the North and secure the North, the Vale and the Riverlands without the need to fight the Reach. The option I see is aligning with Danny as long as she marches to support the Watch.

But how do you guys think dragons would fare in a snowstorm? I looks like that, in a fight between Others and Dragons, the Others will have the upper hand.

Another thing that caught my attention is the guerilla warfare Aemond used. That's a very useful way to use young, nimble, dragons and it seems to align with the Ironborn understanding of warfare. It doesn't seem the type of war Danny would want to wage, though. Then again, tPatQ show that Danny might never control her other two dragons. There are no horns or spells in tPatQ, which makes Victarion's use of the horn uncertain.

And then we also have Nettles' taming of Sheepstealer. Tyrion surely knows about that, and it also proves a non Targaryen can ride a dragon.

Too bad none will be able to use dragons to redecorate the Twins, Harrenhall style.

I personally feel The Others will destroy the dragons

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Oh, I don't deny that. I deny their supposed strength to prepare... As I'm pretty sure Oldtown will be sacked in WOW.

Hmmm, Oldtown is not a small city to be easily sacked by Ironborn. Their attacks function well with small islands and castles, but Oldtown is rather impressive city. Beside, I believe in Fire Eater's version where Hightowers will be attacked and Aegon will defend them, thus Hightowers will be one of the first great Houses to accept Aegon as the King. After all, Hightowers were among the Greens during first Dance.

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I actually there will be a split in most lands between Dany and Aegon.


The hightowers I have afeeling are going to support Dany whiles the Tyrells support Aegon.



Crackpot alert:


I think its possible Marwyn is Leyton Hightower, he suppposedly hasn't left his tower in years and Marwyn has been travelling to Essos.


The description of him is similar I think to the way Jaime described the white bull also another Hightower.


And also there are rumours he is being advised by his daughter by means of spells (Mad Maid) which could be a ruse and he is actually not in the tower. I was planning on making a thread about this.


I don't have my book with me so I'll look for the quotes when I get home.



As an aside, even if Marwyn isn't Leyton Hightower, Leyton Hightower seems to be pro-magic since his daughter is using spells (connection to marywn anyone?), so they might side with Dany since she is also pro magic. I also don't believe Dany will side with the Iron born, I think she is just going to use their boats.



Edit: Marwyn travelled to Essos for 8 years and Leyton hasn't descended the hightower in 10 years.


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Does anyone think that Dany and Aegon would ever come to an agreement and be co-rulers? I know Dany has the dragons and thinks of herself as The Queen, but as far as we know, she also thinks she can have no heirs. If she continues to believe this, I could see that as a path for her agreeing to marry Aegon. It just makes so much sense to me, but egos will clash and I don't think it's an actual possibility. That and I think Aegon is a fake or Blackfyre, but that doesn't even matter - perception is all that matters.

i honestly wish they would since if they are together they would be nigh unstoppable, but alas this is RR martin and that just won't happensigh.

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I think it is important to keep in mind that Daenerys will arrive to Westeros in the middle of the harsher winter in milenia. The realm will be split, not only because of politics but, more importantly, because of weather. I expect that the Winds of Winter will have (schematically speaking) two quasi seperate plots, a "southern" and a "northern". Daenerys will be part of the southern. I don't expecft the Vale to play a role in the Dance2. It doesn't make sense, as any army they could provide could only move exclusively by sea. All other roads are closed by snow. (edit: also, most of the Vale lords are still loyal to the memory of their beloved Jon Arryn. It wouldn't do Dany any good showing up there screaming "ursuper's dogs". I can't see them too eager to support her.)



Also, I think that Doran has more or less played his role and I think it is very possible that he dies, leaving Arianne to become the decisive factor, even the instigator, in the conflict between Aegon and Dany. At first, they should be at least curious about each other so I expect them to meet before they start fighting. Given that girl's vision in Arianne's Winds chapter, I suppose that Dorne will become a magor theater of the Dance2 war. Things will become interesting as Dorne has a tradition of succesfully fighting dragons, even big ones.



I have a feeling (not based on any text evidence though) that Meereen will be a huge bloodbath (dragons attacking wildly without discrimination) so that Dany will have nothing to stay there for and leave for Westeros asap. Thus, she will arrive with a relatively small army. After that, things would be quite even between her and Aegon. If Aegon gets Dorne, she will most propably have some of the Reach due to the long time rivalry between the two regions. (Aegon should get some support from the Reach too, if the Golden Company connections are strong enough).



The dragons are the most important wildcard. "The princess and the queen" showed that it's the riders that matter. I do think that they would carry only smallish riders due to their size, so Tyrion might just be one, as much as I don't really like the idea. If it happens, the dragon won't be Dany's nor Aegon's. Tyrion is loyal only to Tyrion... Who could be a third rider? It's possible that at this stage the third dragon might remain riderless, or be caught by a third party, namely Euron. I don't have any idea of what he might do, but I think he is being set up to become an important antagonist, and he's out for his very own cause. I don't see him siding with any of the Targs.


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We can assume (I think) that Dany will survive her encounter with Khal Jhaqo, and augment her armies with some portion of the Dothraki.

It seems probable that her forces will win the battle of Meereen. It's been well-signalled that the slaves and followers of R'hllor in Volantis will revolt in her favour. The Tattered Prince seems ready to switch sides. The Red Priests preach that she's the reincarnation of Azhor Ahai. All in all, she's likely to have immense naval and military resources at her disposal, in order to invade Westeros, at some point in TWOW. On top of that, every Lord Paramount has disaffected Bannermen, and hundreds of lords and knights have been dispossessed in the WOTFK, and would happily side with anyone who can restore their lands, and who looks like winning.

All in all, I think she'll be far and away, the single most powerful player of the game of thrones by the end of TWOW.

I agree with this. Benerro has proclaimed her Azor Ahai, the religion is by far the most popular in Volantis, the widow at the waterfront has all but said that Volantene slaves are on the verge of a revolution and since she is a wealthy, powerfull and influential person, I think that there are good odds they are orgainzed as well and they have chosen Dany as their figurehead. There is also the vision from the HotU of the Dosh Khaleen bowing to her. There is momentum building up in Essos and Dany is going to be riding it. She will have vast hordes of religious fanatics at her disposal, by the time she reaches Westeros.

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Going back to an earlier point regarding Doran, I was originally talking about what Dany expects when she arrives in Westeros. So when I said that Dorne's choices were her or the Lannisters, this is without knowledge of the Aegon factor. Aside from that, I still don't think that Doran's choice is clear-cut between the two. I don't think he cares about political power, but rather revenge. Securing Viserys/Daenerys via marriages I saw as more of a way for them to assure V or D that, yes, they do have support in Westeros and it would be viable for them to think about taking down the usurpers. It seems to me that having his child as consort was a very nice side benefit, not the actual goal. We obviously disagree, so we shall have to wait and see :)

As for Tyrion's knowledge of the dragons, well, I think that he will help clarify things for Dany. Since she has the actual dragon experience, I think that she will be able to decide which advice from Tyrion is actually useful. If Tyrion tells her that dragons like to eat raw goats according to Important Book, she will obviously know that is wrong through her own experience. If he tells her what the dragon saddles look like and how they differ from that of a horse, well, that is obviously useful knowledge and she can filter through it and see that it sounds right from her own riding experience. They will have to be a team.

I don't think they will rush into each other's arms by any means, but I think that Tyrion's story will intrigue her and she will listen with a wary ear. She could go as far as keeping him prisoner to question him, and build a relationship from there.

This aptly describes my thoughts. Earlier, I received some reasonable criticism because my post made it sound like Tyrion was aiming for Dany all along (I think he might have been subconsciously, but not in the text), and his becoming her adviser would be a slam-dunk. I think it's going to be rocky, especially at first, and he'll have to overcome her prejudice and suspicion, not least because he's a lion. But I do think his knowledge of Westerosi politics and military affairs and most players, not to mention fAegon and his aims, will probably be of great use to Dany. Also, Moqorro predicted in vague wording that Tyrion would ride a dragon. One does wonder if Tyrion's agenda of vengeance will eventually cause a rift, but I still think he'll serve Dany well.

It's true that he's not perfect or even half as clever as he thinks, and his flight from KL is one of the proofs of his limitations. But he is clever, was strategically and personally successful during Blackwater, and is a very good judge of character. Since GRRM is publishing the "Wit and Wisdom of Tyrion Lannister", it is probably safe to assume there is some wisdom there.

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I actually there will be a split in most lands between Dany and Aegon.

The hightowers I have afeeling are going to support Dany whiles the Tyrells support Aegon.

I think that Lannister/Tyrell alliance will hold together when Aegon becomes real threat, especially when he marries Arianne. I think Vale and North might be Dany's allies, but it is also not set in stone... IDK, but I am not certain that Dany would have much allies in Westeros once she arrives.

I think it is important to keep in mind that Daenerys will arrive to Westeros in the middle of the harsher winter in milenia. The realm will be split, not only because of politics but, more importantly, because of weather. I expect that the Winds of Winter will have (schematically speaking) two quasi seperate plots, a "southern" and a "northern". Daenerys will be part of the southern. I don't expecft the Vale to play a role in the Dance2. It doesn't make sense, as any army they could provide could only move exclusively by sea. All other roads are closed by snow. (edit: also, most of the Vale lords are still loyal to the memory of their beloved Jon Arryn. It wouldn't do Dany any good showing up there screaming "ursuper's dogs". I can't see them too eager to support her.)

I am also torn on the Vale. If we assume that Sansa and Royce will kick LF's ass soon, what then? When Dany arrives, and I think she might head for Vale (if for nothing, perhaps Tyrion convinces her so he gets to his clansmen and try to convince them into following him). So, we might see the princess and the queen clashing in Vale. Too much of Vale history is connected to a women, one mother with an underage heir, who was won by Visenya Targaryen, and now in TPATQ, we have Maid of the Vale. IDK, what will exactly happen if Dany and Sansa meets...

Also, Moqorro predicted in vague wording that Tyrion would ride a dragon. One does wonder if Tyrion's agenda of vengeance will eventually cause a rift, but I still think he'll serve Dany well.

When did this happen? I don't see how Moqorro's vision can in any way be interpreted as Tyrion riding a dragon. Being instigator, having key role in dance, yes, that we can conclude from the vision, but him riding a dragon? No.

Now, I would also like to address a certain thing we might have forgotten. Tyrion has written a lot about dragons to JonCon and his co. A lot of his knowledge has been shared with "the other side". So, I wouldn't also call Aegon and his side unprepared, given perhaps the amount of Tyrion's notes.

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I actually there will be a split in most lands between Dany and Aegon.

The hightowers I have afeeling are going to support Dany whiles the Tyrells support Aegon.

The Hightowers supported Aegon in the first DoD, and I think they will support fAegon in the second. I don't think the Tyrells will support Aegon as they are still tied to the Lannisters through Margaery's marriage to Tommen. Olenna also said that the Tyrells value their word more than all the gold in CR.

Mladen, I have read that along with the Vale, the lords of Cracklaw Point supported Rhaenyra, and I think the lords of Crackclaw Point will support Dany when she arrives with her dragons, like Visenya did. Crackclaw Point is just across the Bay of Crabs from the Vale. Lord Mooton also supported Rhaenyra, and as Tarly noted, Mooton has the courage of a worm, and he will likely join after seeing her dragons. That is where her dragons come in as good recruiting tools.

I suspect plenty of riverlords will support Dany as well if Tyrion is smart enough to advise her to promise justice for the RW as well as possibly restore Riverrun to the Tullys. Those two things may manage to get the Blackfish to join them. If we follow some of the Blackfyre Rebellion parallels as well, I guess the Blackwoods may side with Dany while the Brackens may side with Aegon.

I think Dany will later have the Yronwoods on her side when her forces reach the Red Mountains of Dorne, likely through Tyrion's political maneuvering after Arianne ends up insulting Lord Yronwood, likely by refusing his request to foster Trystane.

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after reading TPATQ I believe Dany will win, it will be Bloody but in the end I believe she wins. I think it will be ruthless and very violent ending the lives of alot of characters. 1 reason she has control over her dragon ahead of others giving her a jump start. #2 The only people we are introduced to through the story who can control Dragons possibly, will need time to bond with said dragons this makes them not a real threat til later on in the story and there is not that much story left.4 warging Most of the main characters who will be able to control these beasts will warg them ending some battles for dragon riders before they even start equaling out the field.


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Mladen, I have read that along with the Vale, the lords of Cracklaw Point supported Rhaenyra, and I think the lords of Crackclaw Point will support Dany when she arrives with her dragons, like Visenya did. Crackclaw Point is just across the Bay of Crabs from the Vale. Lord Mooton also supported Rhaenyra, and as Tarly noted, Mooton has the courage of a worm, and he will likely join after seeing her dragons. That is where her dragons come in as good recruiting tools.

I suspect plenty of riverlords will support Dany as well if Tyrion is smart enough to advise her to promise justice for the RW as well as possibly restore Riverrun to the Tullys. Those two things may manage to get the Blackfish to join them. If we follow some of the Blackfyre Rebellion parallels as well, I guess the Blackwoods may side with Dany while the Brackens may side with Aegon.

I think Dany will later have the Yronwoods on her side when her forces reach the Red Mountains of Dorne, likely through Tyrion's political maneuvering after Arianne ends up insulting Lord Yronwood, likely by refusing his request to foster Trystane.

Hmmm, I forgot about Cracklaw Point. Perhaps, instead of Mooton, Tarly will join Daenerys, given that he is now in the control of Maidenpool. As for other riverlords, Bracken and Blackwoods, yes, it can work. Although again, perhaps we might see them all uniting under Sansa in Harrenhal, and following her lead.

As for Yronwoods, I imagine that we need some diversity in Dorne too. I am also interested in reappearance of Edrick Dayne, and entire House Dayne's allegiance.

after reading TPATQ I believe Dany will win, it will be Bloody but in the end I believe she wins.

This is my conclusion too. Dany will eventually win. But the TPATQ gives us hope that we will see rather interesting and impressive war, where the outcome is not set in stone.

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