Winds of Winter Manuscript Length

[KJR the PR of TaFW]

Considering the information we have, i'd say WoW will be released in the space of time between Summer 2014-Spring 2015 . I think late 2014 is the most likely, but a release just after the S4 of GoT is finished is also a possibility.

this would be fine with me, but i think it's a bit optimistic :crying:

[ebevan91]

this would be fine with me, but i think it's a bit optimistic :crying:

Anything before Winter 2014 is a tad optimistic.

[ejhawman]

Sounds like good progress. Winter '14 target. Let's not demand more tastes, it only slows down the main course.

[Stan the Man Baratheon]

Good Research OP!

[Anarchosaurus Rex]

I have an older cousin who started reading when GoT was first released. Since then, he's graduated high school, got married, had three kids, and done several tours of duty. I finished DwD in August of 2011.

Y'all are delusional. We won't be reading WoW until 2015 or beyond. GRRM is busier than ever and has only gotten slower over the years.

[zeppelincheetah]

I am starting to get a little bit anxious. I feel sorry for those that waited between ASOS and AFFC and then had to wait between AFFC and ADWD. I started in the late summer of 2012 and finished reading all of them in the late fall of '12. I don't expect the next one to be released anytime before winter 2014, but I hope we get it next summer. If it's released later than 2014 it will be next to impossible for him to avoid the show overtaking the books. He still needs to write ADOS and the longer it takes for TWOW the further ADOS gets pushed back...

[Mehmet Eren]

if ı am was the people who made money about this cult legendary series I want to publish it before or after end of the series ...free advertisment best thing in the world .... but I am also despereted because of G.R.R.M writing speed so I hope we read book in 2014 but it can abroad mid 2015 (%60)

[not so dolorous Edd]

If it's released later than 2014 it will be next to impossible for him to avoid the show overtaking the books.

Even then I don't see how the show can hope to make the material last the years and years until ADoS is released. Even the show's life span will start to pose problems after about series (series) 6.

Estimates from the shows makers put it at roughly 70-90 episodes in length, which means up to nine seasons. Bearing in mind not even the Sopranos lasted more than 6 this puts bringing the whole thing to a conclusion in line with the books extraordinarily optimistic.

[Senzafaccia]

I firmly believe HBO put black on white about this. (LOL)

A TV network would be crazy to sign a contract with a writer who can delay his books for years and years. They have an army of lawyers and for sure they made a bulletproof contract with clear deadlines for the next books. When he signed the contract which made him a billionaire, he became bounded to finish the books in due dates.

I'd put all my money on this.

Also, I think he got help from HBO for editing, re-reading, proofreading and whatever he needs to speed the thing.

There's a whole office full of people busy on TWOW as we discuss... ;-)

[Le Cygne]

Just may be of interest to the OP, an interview with his editor, a glimpse inside the process:

http://sf-fantasy.suvudu.com/2011/07/dance-interview-with-george-r-r-martin-editor-anne-groell.html

[Ser Creighton]

Just may be of interest to the OP, an interview with his editor, a glimpse inside the process:

http://sf-fantasy.suvudu.com/2011/07/dance-interview-with-george-r-r-martin-editor-anne-groell.html

They were optimistic for WOW to be done in two years back in 2011, oh that's funny. I would go out on a limb and say the last two years have not been big writing years for Martin as he continues to get caught up in other projects, and the levels of pressure and fame continue to increase. I would guess that until he gets into a groove with writing the series the pace will probably be pretty slow. And who knows maybe he is in that zone as I type this. But I think even with really solid performances writing 80-90 thousand words a year that Winds is a lot further off than people think. The most optimistic I release date I can imagine is holiday season 2015. But think spring 2016 more likely and maybe even as late as spring 2017.

It's his business how fast he writes and when the book comes out I will read it, but I am not going to bother hoping for a date, any date, I just hope he finishes it at some point. That my hope and my expectation, I hope he finishes it.

[tower of greyjoy]

I'm as anxious as the next guy for TWoW to come out, but I think that quality of the story needs to take precedence. The show can go bugger itself; it's the books that matter. That's the real story for me. The show is just a slightly modified interpretation of what GRRM has put down in ink, and I really don't want him shortchanging the books to fit a quota. So if it takes two years, so be it. I just want a continuation that's loyal to the story and interesting to read, and if his rep so far is any indication, I strongly believe it will be.

[KJR the PR of TaFW]

http://i806.photobucket.com/albums/yy349/dragana5kovic/BookwormDreams/GoTtiming.jpg

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

They were optimistic for WOW to be done in two years back in 2011, oh that's funny. I would go out on a limb and say the last two years have not been big writing years for Martin as he continues to get caught up in other projects, and the levels of pressure and fame continue to increase. I would guess that until he gets into a groove with writing the series the pace will probably be pretty slow. And who knows maybe he is in that zone as I type this. But I think even with really solid performances writing 80-90 thousand words a year that Winds is a lot further off than people think. The most optimistic I release date I can imagine is holiday season 2015. But think spring 2016 more likely and maybe even as late as spring 2017.

It's his business how fast he writes and when the book comes out I will read it, but I am not going to bother hoping for a date, any date, I just hope he finishes it at some point. That my hope and my expectation, I hope he finishes it.

I can remember GRRM expressing hopes back in 2011 (right after aDwD was released) that WoW could be finished in three years time, since he wanted to get back more to the pace of aGoT, aCoK and aSoS, and avoid the huge problems with aFfC and aDwD.

The thing is, GRRM has not given any information about his progress for more than a year, IIRC. And after all the comments he received with aDwD, I can understand why. Though I had hoped he would tell us a little for Christmas (there might still be a little bit hope for the New Year), I can understand why he doesn't want to say anything.

The major story lines already exist, either on paper or simply only in GRRM's head. He knows how all the major characters will end up. aFfC and aDwD were simply really difficult books to write, and seeing how major this song of ice and fire has become, I can't say I blame him for having had some trouble writing.

Though I hope (with everybody I guess) that WoW will be released in 2014, early 2015 is also possible. Should it be in 2014 though, I expect it to be in the summer, since we'll get the World book in october.

[StormBornQueen]

Seeing as it took 5 years for aFfC and 6 years for aDwD I'm expecting the same or even more for tWoW.

If any of you have been following his blog you'd be seeing all the things he's involved with...I'd even chance to say that most of his blog posts are un-ASOIAF related, which (for me) is quite disheartening, especially when eagerly awaiting updates on how the book's going.

So I'd say anywhere from 2016-18 would be a possible date...far off as it seems :dunce:

[Werthead]

2014 is almost completely impossible at this stage. GRRM's updating modus operandi is to provide more detailed page counts starting about 18 months before publication. He has not done that yet. He also only had 25% of the book completed (but a bit more in unpolished drafts) in April 2013. Given the 3-5 month turnaround on the manuscript needed once the final MS is handed in, to get the book out even in December he'd need to be more like six months away from completing it now. There is zero indication this is the case.

The official word from Bantam (at Comic-Con) is that they were postulating a Summer 2015 release. GRRM's international agents have been saying that 2016 may be more likely, though I've been hoping that's a 'promise low, deliver high' tactic of the kind agents like to use.

Based on everything - including covering the writing and development of ADWD for every week and month of The Wait - I think that 2014 is unrealistic and borderline impossible. It's only remotely possible if GRRM has completely changed his writing and PR approach to how he's done it for the previous five books and 20 years, which seems rather unlikely. At the moment I would not be expecting TWoW before Christmas 2015, and even that may be starting to look optimistic.

[Blue Steel]

I'm as anxious as the next guy for TWoW to come out, but I think that quality of the story needs to take precedence. The show can go bugger itself; it's the books that matter. That's the real story for me. The show is just a slightly modified interpretation of what GRRM has put down in ink, and I really don't want him shortchanging the books to fit a quota. So if it takes two years, so be it. I just want a continuation that's loyal to the story and interesting to read, and if his rep so far is any indication, I strongly believe it will be.

Taking longer to write doesn't make the books better. AFFC and ADWD both took longer to write than ASOS, yet are far inferior in quality

[Steve Stark]

Yeah, I believe it will be the size of SoS, if not slightly larger. 2000 pages would cause too many issues if I had to guess. Yet both of the next books will have to be hefty in size so as not to require three books to finish the series (I'm really hoping that doesn't happen, but if it does I'll live).

If I had to guess, I would say that Winds will come out October or November of this year. With all of the pressure and hype, that should spur him and it will have given Martin plenty of time. When it comes to money, this release date makes sense. All the ASOIAF fanatics (like us) will purchase in October and November. They'll get massive initial sales. Then all the GoTs fans and those who want the book but were not in a rush to buy it will get it for Christmas. Then you have the months of Jan and Feb where the book will get free marketing because of all the HBO hype. That's sales, sales, and more sales.

[Werthead]

Taking longer to write doesn't make the books better. AFFC and ADWD both took longer to write than ASOS, yet are far inferior in quality

AFFC actually took about the same (3-3.5 years); GRRM didn't begin AFFC-as-published until August or September of 2001 and large chunks of ASoS were completed before ACoK was even handed in.

When it comes to money

GRRM sold 9 million books and made over $15 million in 2011-12 alone. We've reached the stage where GRRM has so much money that it's not a key factor in his decision-making progress. It is in the publisher's, but they don't take control of the process untill George hands in the final MS.

[Nic.]

2014 is almost completely impossible at this stage. GRRM's updating modus operandi is to provide more detailed page counts starting about 18 months before publication. He has not done that yet. He also only had 25% of the book completed (but a bit more in unpolished drafts) in April 2013. Given the 3-5 month turnaround on the manuscript needed once the final MS is handed in, to get the book out even in December he'd need to be more like six months away from completing it now. There is zero indication this is the case.

that's really depressing considering he had 25% of the book done in November of 2011 as well. I realize the show is bound to the book and not the other way around, but you'd wish the author would at least have a bigger sense of urgency to get his books done.