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Nilan8888

The Winds of Winter -- much closer to shelves than once thought?

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I realize this thread will be inevitably locked as threads of this nature are. However there's new information worth a little posting about, so maybe some people can get opinions in before we're done.



The following is an interview with Roy Dotrice, and the beginning is most important:



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VHo_BqKbkCM




Combine this with Liam Cunningham's interview from 6 months ago (relevant point is around the 6 minute mark):



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eTUV6n2mOVY




This is generally painting a picture of a book that is much farther along than people might otherwise think it is. I have seen people discount the Liam interview, but Roy's interview combined with it is makes for a better case. Also keep in mind That GRRM has ceased giving updates on the progress of TWOW, but the last one he DID give was that he was about 1/4th of the way through: but the first time that estimate was given was in September of 2012. Most people have then used that as the continuing estimate of the books (largely because Martin has given that answer in interviews subsequent to September).



But given how press junkets go, I'm wondering if this is just a form response, plus a way to stop people hounding him quite so much. Now, I'm not saying that the book will be out tomorrow or next month or whatever, but it might be that he's in the final stages of his first completed draft and might just take the next few months polishing what he's got, and that we're not really at the 1/4 to 1/3 mark, as many might think.


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I would not make too much of this. I suspect Dotrice is unknowingly referringly to The World of Ice and Fire, which I suppose might well get an audio book edition and I suppose GRRM may have suggested that that might be something Roy could read.

I could of course be wrong, but do take any statement not directly from GRRM with a few grains of salt.

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TWoIaF just doesn't seem like something you'd listen to via audiobook.



I'd want to be able to flip around to different pages and read about stuff. Plus look at artwork.


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As a person who listens to audio books, tWoIaF is not one I'd want. Of course I don't know exactly what it will be, but I'm imagining a book with more illuminations, and drawings that would turn a septon blind. I'd much prefer a hard copy of that.

Regarding the remark by Roy Dotrice, he did say "episode" but still, I don't want to get my hopes up for a sooner publication. It does make me feel insensitive to say that I think it's possible GRRM could feel more pressured to finish by the lifespan of a 90 year old cancer survivor than by fans or television producers. Still, whether the remark has substance or not, I'd prefer not to get my hopes up.

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If it's released next year I'd be thrilled. Ideally the day after the finale of season 4 ends. Not getting my hopes up too much.

I hadn't seen that Liam Cunningham interview before, I wonder what the 'secret' is.

Really hope nothing awful happens to Ser Davos :(

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I have no idea if it is closer or not, but here is one ray of sunshine I've noticed. GRRM has no scheduled appearances on his website for over six months. That seems to be a rarity for him these days, and is a good chunk of time to sit down in New Mexico with a bowl of green chile and pump out some chapters.


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"Next few months" is a stretch, we would have heard something by now. That said, late 2014/early 2015 is possible, and these reports make me a little more optimistic.

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I have no idea if it is closer or not, but here is one ray of sunshine I've noticed. GRRM has no scheduled appearances on his website for over six months. That seems to be a rarity for him these days, and is a good chunk of time to sit down in New Mexico with a bowl of green chile and pump out some chapters.

Hopefully he'll have finished most of the book (or at least rough drafts) by the time those six months are done.

Also, it's not really 6 months since he'll likely go on tour again for the TV show premier like last year. Still very good, though.

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Well, we all discount it because he was 1/4 along in Sept 2012, but then had spend at least 6 months of the last year on various trips. So, he might be half done I suppose, but I am still anticipating late 2015 at which point I may or may not care based on how good Star Citizen (game) ends up being.


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If it's released next year I'd be thrilled. Ideally the day after the finale of season 4 ends. Not getting my hopes up too much.

I hadn't seen that Liam Cunningham interview before, I wonder what the 'secret' is.

Really hope nothing awful happens to Ser Davos :(

It's Stavos duh :P

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"..and George tells me he's got another one nearly ready, so that'll be, at least a few more years work anyway, but I enjoy doing it."



Was Dotrice talking about him doing the voice thingy or George working on his book?


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http://grrm.livejournal.com/347757.html?thread=18471789#t18471789

Well, I wouldn't say my desk is "durance vile," but I get your point.

And there's more than you can imagine. Not only the 80,000 word version of the Dance of the Dragons, but another chunk almost as long about the power struggles during the regency that followed... and a long piece preceding P&Q, about all that went before... and...

Well, a lot.

So for those who like fake history, the eventual GRRMarillion will have a lot of great stuff... but first I need to finish WINDS, and the next Dunk & Egg, and A DREAM OF SPRING...

TWoW is in the "finishing" stage.

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That's reading a lot into it. I'm pretty sure that was just meant to mean "I need to continue working on WINDS". Don't get me wrong, I am hoping for the book to be done by mid-late next year for a Christmas 2014 release, or a March/April 2015 (to coincide with Season 5) release at the latest, but that was a bit of a stretch.

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In the end it's about what's possible for George, and I hate to say it, but it will be about money and glory too. I would imagine he would announce the release date in conjunction with the show in order to spur it's popularity even further and to produce a bit of marketing magic.



If I were in charge, I would look at what episode has had a history of receiving the least views on release day, and announce that the ending will reveal an important date for ASOIAF. Just before the credits when the screen goes black, "Winds of Winter is coming. November 20th, 2014".



It would increase the episodes rating, the show, HBO's money, GOT's popularity, George's pocket book, and be a nice way to reveal the date of the book. The date would also give us ASOIAF psychos a chance to get the books in Nov, and then everyone else to buy them up for Christmas gifts for the not so psycho fans in 2014. Two months of ridiculous sales, and it will give even more life to the future HBO season which will come out once again in March of 2015. Money, money, and more money. Marketing for the win.



Plus, if it's not out next year, I might just behead an innocent horse.


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In the end it's about what's possible for George, and I hate to say it, but it will be about money and glory too. I would imagine he would announce the release date in conjunction with the show in order to spur it's popularity even further and to produce a bit of marketing magic.

If I were in charge, I would look at what episode has had a history of receiving the least views on release day, and announce that the ending will reveal an important date for ASOIAF. Just before the credits when the screen goes black, "Winds of Winter is coming. November 20th, 2014".

It would increase the episodes rating, the show, HBO's money, GOT's popularity, George's pocket book, and be a nice way to reveal the date of the book. The date would also give us ASOIAF psychos a chance to get the books in Nov, and then everyone else to buy them up for Christmas gifts for the not so psycho fans in 2014. Two months of ridiculous sales, and it will give even more life to the future HBO season which will come out once again in March of 2015. Money, money, and more money. Marketing for the win.

Plus, if it's not out next year, I might just behead an innocent horse.

In the age of twitter ratings wouldn't be boosted. At most people would just check their twitter and FB account a bit more that evening.

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In the end it's about what's possible for George, and I hate to say it, but it will be about money and glory too. I would imagine he would announce the release date in conjunction with the show in order to spur it's popularity even further and to produce a bit of marketing magic.

No doubt there's a good bit of that in there.

Next year would really be the ideal time. Look, as much as we hate to admit it, Storm of Swords was really the last time ASOIAF's narrative reached what you might call a climax. It wasn't THE climax, but a whole lot went down at once.

What follows is something that was just honestly too large to fit into one book. It would have fit into two books, but the first book would have had no climax. George attempted something novel, to tell 'all the story' for one set of characters and then all the story for the other, but I don't think it worked out, because even when removing the first set out into another book (AFFC), the story was STILL too big for one book (ADWD). He still had to cut out the battles at the end and a bunch of other stuff.

So really, the first part of TWOW, the part George has had written for a while now, is really the trumping climax, the Battle of Blackwater or the Execution of Eddard, for ADWD. What he'd planned for the real starting point of TWOW won't begin until at least a few hundred pages in.

What this means for the show might be a few things: first, they might need to extend their seasons to more than 10 episodes. Secondly, the full story of AFFC-ADWD-beginning of TWOW will be too big for one season even though it's the equivalent of one installment of the story, so they'll need to wrack their brains and find a good climax point for season 5 when George himself was unable to find one to split up the narrative.

But most importantly, they need that first part of TWOW out and published, so they have that climax they need, and they can actually do the battle of ice in the north, and the battle of fire in Mereen. And they're due to start filming the first part of that part of the story this summer.

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George was talking about finishing ADWD in 2007 and 2008, so definitely don't take this to mean anything.

I'm pretty certain that GRRM was referring to either 1) The World of Ice and Fire or 2) A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms (aka 'Dunk and Egg Omnibus #1'), which I imagine he'd want Roy to read.

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No doubt there's a good bit of that in there.

Next year would really be the ideal time. Look, as much as we hate to admit it, Storm of Swords was really the last time ASOIAF's narrative reached what you might call a climax. It wasn't THE climax, but a whole lot went down at once.

What follows is something that was just honestly too large to fit into one book. It would have fit into two books, but the first book would have had no climax. George attempted something novel, to tell 'all the story' for one set of characters and then all the story for the other, but I don't think it worked out, because even when removing the first set out into another book (AFFC), the story was STILL too big for one book (ADWD). He still had to cut out the battles at the end and a bunch of other stuff.

So really, the first part of TWOW, the part George has had written for a while now, is really the trumping climax, the Battle of Blackwater or the Execution of Eddard, for ADWD. What he'd planned for the real starting point of TWOW won't begin until at least a few hundred pages in.

What this means for the show might be a few things: first, they might need to extend their seasons to more than 10 episodes. Secondly, the full story of AFFC-ADWD-beginning of TWOW will be too big for one season even though it's the equivalent of one installment of the story, so they'll need to wrack their brains and find a good climax point for season 5 when George himself was unable to find one to split up the narrative.

But most importantly, they need that first part of TWOW out and published, so they have that climax they need, and they can actually do the battle of ice in the north, and the battle of fire in Mereen. And they're due to start filming the first part of that part of the story this summer.

I think that there are some points at which you could make a decent climax for a season. For instance Deepwood motte (If they make it larger), Crowning of Myrcella/what ensues after, Cersei getting Margeary arrested, start of the siege of riverrun (if they do it at all which I doubt tbh). I think those points would make great season ending material, if they want a battle they could go for deepwood motte if they want something more in line of what we saw in season 1/season 3 I would go for the crowning of Myrcella and the things that go wrong, Cersei arresting Margeary and the possible start of the siege of Riverrun.

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