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Brief look at GoT Season 4


Mladen

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But there's still the problem of Jaime spilling out secrets to people who could spread them around. Would he really tell all that to a Tyrell? It would make him look really stupid.

About the pics:

The beard and short, balding hair are helping make the Mountain look older, and more like Conan Stevens' Mountain. I guess people will just have to ignore the season 2 Mountain - many viewers didn't even realize it was supposed to be the same guy.

Either way I'm excited to see what the relationship between Jaime and Loras ends up looking like on the show. Loras being betrothed to Cersei and Brienne being in KL could really make things go either way. I'm sure Loras will at least pick up on the fact that Jaime and Cersei are fucking. Looking forward to some great awkward scenes between the 3 of them (4 if Brienne sticks around at all).
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End of Season 4 Spoilers...

The crow leaves the pot

Possible but it looks unlikely at this point.

The worm is plucked from the skull

I would be willing to bet very large amounts of money that this won't happen this season.

The onion is spiked

Or this.

The wench searches

I'm not sure what this one is referring to...

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Possible but it looks unlikely at this point.
I would be willing to bet very large amounts of money that this won't happen this season.

Or this.

I'm not sure what this one is referring to...

Hint:

Who does Jaime call "wench" several times in ASoS? And who is that wench looking for in AFfC?

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I thought the 'person of colour' thing was obvious (...)

It's not obvious if you're not from an English speaking country. I don't think that term is even used outside of the USA. I did manage to understand what it was after staring at it for a while and remembering the outcry after Pascal's casting. I went to wikipedia to confirm it and just couldn't resist that "piece of cake".

(...) and given your username you have no excuse for not seeing this!

I'm paler than a White Walker :(

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Yeah, I meant Person of Color...I kind of roll my eyes at the term "POC" so it was a little tongue-in-cheek. That man is definitely a piece of cake though, no debate needed. If the crew does it right, his death is going to be more rage-inducing than Drogo's for the Unsullied.



I want Loras to interact with Jaime because now he's (unhappily) engaged to Cersei. Lol, it's like that "The Riddle" scene from Scarlet Pimpernel, when everybody's pissed at each other and tripping over their respective secrets. ("And only fools follow golden rules!"). Poor Jaime...his expression when he walked into Cersei's room and she just gawked at him, then gawked at his stump was so sad.


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Poor Jaime...his expression when he walked into Cersei's room and she just gawked at him, then gawked at his stump was so sad.

Is that what you think was going on? I thought it was more like this, with Seashell Cersei looking so dreamy:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O1wD1oqXYss

Lena Headey did indicate a change:

"This season we just shot, season 4, was a very different relationship for the two of them. What I love about this is it endlessly evolves, and there's constant change. And so I think it was something unforeseen for her, what happens this season..."
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Is that what you think was going on? I thought it was more like this, with Seashell Cersei looking so dreamy:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O1wD1oqXYss

Lena Headey did indicate a change:

LOL! That video had me howling!

Teehee, what I love about film is you can interpret scenes in different ways. After he said "Cersei?" I found Cersei's expression rather like, "JAIME?! What the fuck did you get raped by a gang of alley cats?!" Her face froze in "oh shit" formation and Jaime glanced down aggrieved at his stump. Probably thinking, "Well at least I didn't run into the Bolton guy who apparently cuts peoples' cocks off instead of their hands. Now dammit Cersei I need a bath and enough wine to drown a kraken."

His face at the verrrrrry end made me remember why I loved his hair and scruff--it made him look quite leonine. Sad scruffy lion.

Oh and I have totally found Kings Landing's theme song.

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She is awesome, the one who did the video, her site is funny, too.



You're right, there is that oh, shit look at the end, that's what makes him look at it. Sad scruffy lion!



Like, oh, sometimes wanting something is better than having it (didn't Mr. Spock say that once?)



Had to look it up:



"After a time, you may find that having is not so pleasing a thing after all as wanting. It is not logical, but it is often true."
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Re Tywin, I think that many fans acknowledge that Tywin was a horrible father, but see him as a capable politician, general, game-player, leader, etc., and don't see any contradiction between admiring what he did in his public life and acknowledging he was an ass in his private life; I get the feeling they would evaluate Real Life politicians the same way as well, focusing solely on their public life and declare whatever scandalous elements of their private lives exist, to be irrelevant.

The thing is that Tywin ISN'T as all-knowing and super-capable as he appears to be. He's one-part mummer (Melisadre is an even better showman, though), two parts leader and three parts made up of just plain luck.

Tywin rode into a war that he actually shouldn't have won, and the means by which he won it came about by fluke that he couldn't have known when he rode out from Casterly Rock. When he rode out Robert was still alive and he had no idea Lysa Arryn was not in her own sister's corner, or that Renly and Stannis were going to butt heads, which were the factors which really lost the war.

When it came to it, the Starks only had the Tullys to count on, the weakest of their primary allies. Lysa should have backed them up and won the war for them: there would have been no way Tywin could have stood against those 3 houses united, especially with Robb Stark in nominal command. On top of that, the Baratheons couldn't get their act together -- but he had no way of knowing that.

What's more, Tywin had only one prospect of a realistic alliance: the Greyjoys. The Iron Islands were the only ones with a major axe to grind against the Starks and Baratheons -- and it's not like Tywin wanted to side overmuch with the people who burned Lannisport. The Martells hated the Lannisters even more than the Starks, and if anything were more likely to ally with the Starks against the Lannisters than fight with Tywin, if the Arryns or Baratheons had kept up their ends of the alliance that brought Robert to the throne.

And the Tyrells? They're not going to go out on a limb for the Lannisters if they're actually outnumbered.

Neither the show or the books underscore this that much but: given the political situation prior to Robert's death, Tywin really should have lost. He got by on a huge amount of luck, and even with that luck, was losing the war a good amount of the time. Had even one of the earlier factors gone against him, he was done for. And he knew NONE of this when marching out into the riverlands. He should have used a fair bit more caution, really.

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Neither the show or the books underscore this that much but: given the political situation prior to Robert's death, Tywin really should have lost. He got by on a huge amount of luck, and even with that luck, was losing the war a good amount of the time. Had even one of the earlier factors gone against him, he was done for. And he knew NONE of this when marching out into the riverlands. He should have used a fair bit more caution, really.

Pretty much. Tywin's victory, although he doesn't know this, essentially results from two things:

1) Petyr Baelish preferred a Lannister victory to a Stark-Tully one.

2) The existence of Melisandre.

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Pretty much. Tywin's victory, although he doesn't know this, essentially results from two things:

1) Petyr Baelish preferred a Lannister victory to a Stark-Tully one.

2) The existence of Melisandre.

3) Walder Frey being Walder Frey.

But I'm not sure why people say that Tywin/the Lannisters "won" the Wot5K. Robb died and the Starks have been in ruin, but they weren't his only enemies. Stannis is still alive and kicking and still has an army and is still trying to win the throne. They did beat him at BW, but Robb beat the Lannisters in all the battles, for all the good it did to him. Balon died, no thanks to the Lannisters, but there was still going to be a king in the Iron Islands, and it turned out to be one that actually wants the IT, unlike Balon, and would therefore be an enemy to the Lannisters rather than just an enemy of the Starks. So, there were still (or were going to be) three kings in Westeros, at least two vying for the IT.

Even if Tywin didn't see the Ironborn as enemies because they did not want the IT , Stannis was defeated in a battle, not in a war. Robb Stark could have used the same logic to say he had won the war after he defeated the Lannisters in all the battles - but then the Starks fell apart outside of the battlefield, due to betrayals by allies. Ironically, the Lannisters defeated Stannis in a big battle with the help of the Tyrells, but then the Lannisters started falling apart due to their own internal dysfunction and the scheming of their allies.

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While Frey's participation was dramatic, by that point the Stark-Tully cause was pretty much hopeless anyway. All he did was expedite the fall.

This is true. By that point Robb might not have 'lost' the war, but he could no longer win it. It was more likely to grind down into a war of attrition as Robb kicked the Greyjoys out of the north and Tywin tried to re-take the riverlands, without much hope of getting past Moat Calin if he did.

The Stark position at the beginning of the story is probably the most secure of any house. So secure that all the mistakes Robb makes probably wouldn't have mattered had an extremely improbable string of events not occurred (improbably from the Stark POV, at least -- although probably improbable from most POVs).

And again, even with all the huge factors going his way and with Robb making the mistakes he did, Tywin STILL almost lost the war.

It's not that Tywin is dumb, it's that like Cersei, Tywin is not quite as smart as he thinks he is (mind you the difference between reality and imagination on this count is far smaller than in Cersei's case). People fear him because he's cruel and efficient, but it would seem that Robb Stark, if anything, was the better general at 15. Tywin's reputation far exceeds his actual accomplishments, most of which are administrative. He never, that I know of, won a decisive victory in a straight-up military engagement: his track record against Houses Reyne and Castamere is largely a mystery save for the fact that he won, and on the Blackwater he merely flanked an opponent that had otherwise already engaged the enemy in a very precarious assault. His sack of King's Landing was also no feat of tactical brilliance. In short, Tywin seems a far better civil administrator than he is a battlefield commander, where both the Starks (Robb) and Baratheons (Robert, Stannis) are of superior skill.

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[...]

It's not that Tywin is dumb, it's that like Cersei, Tywin is not quite as smart as he thinks he is (mind you the difference between reality and imagination on this count is far smaller than in Cersei's case). People fear him because he's cruel and efficient, but it would seem that Robb Stark, if anything, was the better general at 15. Tywin's reputation far exceeds his actual accomplishments, most of which are administrative. He never, that I know of, won a decisive victory in a straight-up military engagement: his track record against Houses Reyne and Castamere is largely a mystery save for the fact that he won, and on the Blackwater he merely flanked an opponent that had otherwise already engaged the enemy in a very precarious assault. His sack of King's Landing was also no feat of tactical brilliance. In short, Tywin seems a far better civil administrator than he is a battlefield commander, where both the Starks (Robb) and Baratheons (Robert, Stannis) are of superior skill.

I tend to disagree, since being brilliant in tactics (thinking abut planning a single battle ahead) is not the same as being brilliant in strategy (all the rest that it is there).

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This is true. By that point Robb might not have 'lost' the war, but he could no longer win it. It was more likely to grind down into a war of attrition as Robb kicked the Greyjoys out of the north and Tywin tried to re-take the riverlands, without much hope of getting past Moat Calin if he did.

In a hypothetical future Northern campaign, Tywin would just use the Lannisters' overwhelming naval supremacy to get around Moat Cailin, like the Ironborn did. The Starks have no navy to speak of (though Manderly is now building a rudimentary one), and thus very limited capacity to resist a seaborn invasion.

While the North was able to maintain its independence in the past, that was always in the era of the Seven Kingdoms, not the North and the Six-in-One Kingdoms. To me it's dubious that the North would be able to effectively resist the combined might of the rest of the realm.

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While the North was able to maintain its independence in the past, that was always in the era of the Seven Kingdoms, not the North and the Six-in-One Kingdoms. To me it's dubious that the North would be able to effectively resist the combined might of the rest of the realm.

The North probably couldn't resist the combined strength of all Six Kingdoms (actually seven, since 7K should really be 8K, but that's beside the point), but it's also improbable that the rest of the realm would be in any position to mount such an expedition. Look at how precarious Robert's position was and that's with 5 kingdoms firmly in the unionist camp. In the situation we're discussing, only the Westerlands and the Reach would be fully committed to the survival of the realm. None of the other regions - Dorne, Riverlands, Iron Islands, Vale, maybe even Stormlands to an extent - would give a flying f*** about some costly overseas invasion they couldn't care less about. I think the best the Iron Throne could do for the time being is raid along the coasts, launch limited incursions here and there to keep Starks on their toes, and blockade Northern ports in order to cut trade with the Free Cities.

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The North probably couldn't resist the combined strength of all Six Kingdoms (actually seven, since 7K should really be 8K, but that's beside the point), but it's also improbable that the rest of the realm would be in any position to mount such an expedition. Look at how precarious Robert's position was and that's with 5 kingdoms firmly in the unionist camp. In the situation we're discussing, only the Westerlands and the Reach would be fully committed to the survival of the realm. None of the other regions - Dorne, Riverlands, Iron Islands, Vale, maybe even Stormlands to an extent - would give a flying f*** about some costly overseas invasion they couldn't care less about. I think the best the Iron Throne could do for the time being is raid along the coasts, launch limited incursions here and there to keep Starks on their toes, and blockade Northern ports in order to cut trade with the Free Cities.

Precisely. It would take a while to get an expidition together that united all the other kingdoms against the Starks -- so long that Tommen or Joffrey might be full-grown men by the time it happened considering the level of priority it would start to have if Robb stayed to regain his strength. And remember that, I believe, Manderly started building his fleet well before the RW.

The Lannisters at the point of the RW are themselves no less spent than the Starks, or if less spent, only marginally so. They've been seriously battered and suffered heavy losses, and while they have more numbers to draw upon, they've been losing greater numbers too. They don't have the human resource capacity of the Soviet Union.

With Balon dead and his heirs having no particular interest in retaining the North, the Greyjoys would be questionable in aiding House Lannister at best. And even if they did, they'd be completely unreliable, and only particularly useful in naval engagements. And they're the ones with the most to gain.

House Tyrell would help of course, since they're obligated to do so. But it would take some time to muster their forces -- by the time they were ready, Robb would likely have already regained almost all the North. From there they'd have to sail up past the Iron Islands and pick a landing area where Robb would have ample time to respond as Ser Rodrik responded to the Ironborn (and responded successfully). This is the most likely scenario. At the same time Tywin would be trying to subjugate the riverlands and, since the Freys are either presumably back in Robb's camp or are neutral, this could take some time to even get to Moat Calin.

The Vale would never march with the Lannisters -- not out of particular hate for them, but it's been established that their respect for the Starks goes further than the Arryn family. Lysa herself is really the only substantial thing keeping the Vale from entering the war on the side of the Starks.

The Baratheons are too divided to be of any particular help considering some of them still support Stannis, and they'd lost so many men on the Blackwater. Heck, a lot of them are currently outlaws harrying Lannister forces on the roads.

And the Martells? Their response ot a Lannister request for assistance would be something along the lines of an extended middle finger. Frankly Tywin should count himself lucky Dorne is on the other side of the continent.

So really I think what Robb would be looking at is only one Great House at almost full strength (the Tyrells) plus a battered Lannister army plus whatever Baratheon and Crownland houses they could dredge up. Something more like 2.5K. Considering Robb might now have the defensive advantage, I think that's more likely to wind up as a war of attrition with nobody really gaining ground. It certainly wouldn't be the Greyjoy rebellions all over again.

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