NFLWeek 16: The Night Is Dark and Full of Terror-bowl Defenses

[trickster]

Is it time for the rest of the AFC playoff teams be a little concerned about the Ravens?

[Prince of the North]

Hmm...shades of the good ol' days of Baltimore's offense consisting of Matt Stover and the Nevermore Defense.

So, does Schwartz coach the Lions next season?

[Jace, Extat]

I'd actually take our Colts over the Ravens.

[Jaxom 1974]

So the Lions lose...the level of meatheadedness that is going to crawl out of the woodwork tomorrow on the radio here in Chicagoland...

Green Bay is totally going to win the North, aren't they?

[awesome possum]

Green Bay is totally going to win the North, aren't they?

Not just win the North, but they'll probably win it in Soldier Field.

[Corvinus85]

Is it time for the rest of the AFC playoff teams be a little concerned about the Ravens?

yes, if the Ravens make it to the playoffs, at least one of the favorites will fall to them.

[Reposado]

Is it time for the rest of the AFC playoff teams be a little concerned about the Ravens?

No. Despite Detroit's best effort to lose, the ravens made that tough.

[trickster]

Ravens are well equipped to win this kind of ugly games. But if their red zone execution needs to get better. I can envision them winning scrappy 16-14 type games against the Bengals and Colts.

[Prince of the North]

I'd actually take our Colts over the Ravens.

Oh, that wasn't meant to be particularly complimentary to the Ravens. I actually thought back then and still think today that it's kind of sad when an NFL team can't generate any offense besides field goals. And, yes, I know an ugly win is still a win, etc.

But I did greatly admire Baltimore's defense back then (even though I've never been much of a Ray Lewis fan).

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

So the Lions lose...the level of meatheadedness that is going to crawl out of the woodwork tomorrow on the radio here in Chicagoland...

Green Bay is totally going to win the North, aren't they?

It's Da Bears to lose though. It's crazy how many divisions are still up in the air with just 2 weeks to go. We still have 5 divisions up for grabs. The AFC North and West and The NFC East/North and South. Not counting the AFC East as I'm pretty sure the Pats will lock it down or the NFC West as I believe the Seachickens will take care of business.

[Rockroi]

Calvin Johnson has really hurt his team tonight. That and the refs.

I got to say that I thought the blame falls squarely on the shoulders of Stafford; he was fucking terrible tonight. He was forcing throws, overshooting guys, not getting air on certain throws and generally sucking so bad that the ref's wouldn't even throw him some obvious PI calls.

And Shwartz was amazing in how terribly he coached. Great job.

[Biter]

Is Ray Rice hurt?

Do you mean if he was hurt today, or this season?

Because Rice has had one game this season (that I can remember) where he looked to be 100%, and otherwise he's been getting limited plays.

[TheKitttenGuard]

So when will it really hit that you lost to a kicker?

Impressive by Justin Tucker with hitting kicks from at least 20, 30, 40, 50, and 60 yards.

[Mexal]

I got to say that I thought the blame falls squarely on the shoulders of Stafford; he was fucking terrible tonight. He was forcing throws, overshooting guys, not getting air on certain throws and generally sucking so bad that the ref's wouldn't even throw him some obvious PI calls.

And Shwartz was amazing in how terribly he coached. Great job.

Oh yea, Stafford definitely played terrible but Johnson had three drops, two that would have given the Lions a first down 10+ yards down the field and one on a 2 point conversion that he played poorly. They were all big plays. But yea, Stafford really played bad too.

[Kalbear]

So, some more on the notion that there is some issue with momentum going into the playoffs or teams that have a bye tend to lose at a higher level.

First: according to FO, the Seahawks are the overwhelming favorite to win the superbowl at this point. How overwhelming? Well, they have almost double the chance to win as the next team - Denver. Their chance? 25%. That's right - despite the Seahawks almost certainly having home field advantage and playing in a blizzard, the Seahawks only win the superbowl 1 out of every 4 times. And they're about as chalky as they come; they've been dominant, have great homefield advantage, are great on offense and defense and special teams. They've dominated bad teams and good teams alike. And yet they only have a 25% chance.

That's just how it works. That essentially means they have about a 65% chance to win every single game in the playoffs and the superbowl. That's almost a 2 to 1 likelihood of winning every game - a huge advantage - but it still only happens once every 4 times.

Here's another fun fact: their current DVOA is about 40%. It'll probably go up a smidgen after the Giants game. That sounds amazingly dominant - 40% above the average! Ever wonder what that translates to, roughly, in points above average?

7. Every 17% DVOA is worth about 3 points. I know this because 17% DVOA is also what home field is worth to a team normally. Therefore 40% is about 7 points. They're expected to do about 7 points better than an average team. And that's excellent! The best DVOA we've seen in a while - 2007 Pats - was only worth 9 points over the average. This really should strike home the idea that there is just an absurd amount of parity in the NFL. The best team in the country, without question, can be undone by one bad scoring play as far as their advantage goes. And that advantage reduces even less once you figure that they aren't going to be playing average teams - they're going to be playing 20% to 30% DVOA teams. They'll be favored in every game, but hopefully you're starting to understand what 'favored' means.

How about that whole '1 seeds fall' thing? Well, let's go look at that a bit more in depth.

2012: Broncos and Falcons were #1 seeds. Hopefully everyone can agree Falcons were not a great team last year. They lost to another team with a bye - the #2 seed. Ravens got lucky in one game, dominated two others and won a shootout in the superbowl. How weird was that? Well, two things helped the Ravens here - the Broncos completely failing for no good reason to cover a pass, and them getting back 3 different defenders for the playoffs - one of which was Ray Lewis, who took a lot of drugs knowing he was retiring. The other oddity was that we got 'good' Joe Flacco, who played at an absurd level for 3 games. Sometimes that happens. He didn't get hot before the playoffs. He just got lucky during them.

2011: New England and GB were the #1 seeds. NE made it to the superbowl and lost to the Giants surprising no one at all. Sometimes the matchup really determines things, and the Giants have a great matchup (or did) against the Pats. As to why GB lost? Well, in that 15-1 season there was a dirty little secret - GB never had to come back in any game. Ever. For some reason, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are horrible at coming from behind; he is something like 1 and 15 on 4th quarter comebacks. The Packers got down early with turnovers and never really recovered. As to why the #2 team lost (SF) at home - they lost an incredibly lucky game that also likely hinged entirely on a backup punt returner. These things sometimes happen - because again, the margins are wafer thin in the NFL.

I'll go back and look at a few more later.

[Fiddler]

Lions:

-Host NYG and then @ Minnesota. That's quite winnable if they can keep it together

Since they beat the Bears and were 6-3:

@Steelers, home against Buccaneers, home against Packers, @Eagles, home against Ravens.

They went 1-4.

I don't see how this team can go into Minnesota and win there, hell at the moment I can't see them beating the Giants.

Stafford was putrid last night. Calvin dropped three key passes that were well thrown and were huge. Swartz completely lets the game ride on a 60 yarder(seriously doesn't someone on the sideline shout timeout?). Those are the three Detroit members that are to blame.

Now Calvin I can forgive. I think he didn't even know where he was after the first hit by the Ravens. Seriously how was he consistantly hit in the head by helmets and shoulders, but it was never called. Ravens were headhunting like their names were Brandon Merriweather.

Then the refs were so bad that the Big 10 called and wanted to hire them. There was the phantom face mask and PI on the Ravens drive. The PI in the endzone that wasn't called. The 3-4 hits on defenseless recievers that weren't called. Then the hit on Flaco which was the picture of what that penalty looks like.

Its another lost season as a Lions fan that really makes me question why. Why do I watch this team? Why do I care so much? Why can't I stop?

[Mexal]

I know this is a hot topic and I'm fairly sure I can't really remember past years, but doesn't seem like refs are deciding games far too much this year compared to previous years? Sure, there was the replacement refs, but other than that, I don't remember so many game changing penalties being called. Is it because the rules are constantly changing and open to interpretation on bang bang plays or are refs just getting terrible at their jobs? I really hope we start getting full time refs and holding these guys accountable because they are a story week after week and they shouldn't be.

[Jaime L]

So, some more on the notion that there is some issue with momentum going into the playoffs or teams that have a bye tend to lose at a higher level.

First: according to FO, the Seahawks are the overwhelming favorite to win the superbowl at this point. How overwhelming? Well, they have almost double the chance to win as the next team - Denver. Their chance? 25%. That's right - despite the Seahawks almost certainly having home field advantage and playing in a blizzard, the Seahawks only win the superbowl 1 out of every 4 times. And they're about as chalky as they come; they've been dominant, have great homefield advantage, are great on offense and defense and special teams. They've dominated bad teams and good teams alike. And yet they only have a 25% chance.

A few thoughts on this:

1) Seattle alone as one team in a 12 team field has a 25.7% chance. But add their 25.7% with the other teams currently slated to get byes (i.e.: Denver's 17.3%, NE's 11.4% and Carolina's 11.3%) and it adds up to over 65% which intuitively sounds about right. I could see a wildcard team winning the Superbowl 1/3rd of the time. But as of late it's been 3/4ths the time, which if there are no other external variables is statistically quite unlikely. Not impossible, but highly improbable.

2) Apropos of nothing, if Vegas gave me 1 outta 4 odds on the Seahawks winning the Superbowl, I would jump all over that. Seahawks are a different animal of #1 seed as we've seen over the last 10 years because of that ridiculous homefield advantage. If the average better team has a 65% chance of winning, I'd say the Seahawks at home is more like 80-85%. (It's actually been 100% since Russell Wilson has gotten there....but let's face it that also includes the Fail Mary, though counterpoint to my counterpoint that Seahawks team then isn't close to what they are now).

3) I agree with your "how DVOA translates to points" baseline, but you also need to add in 3 points for homefield advantage vs. the neutral field analysis above. There's another 17% of DVOA right there. Further if a bye week is any kind of advantage at all isn't that worth some points too? I think it should be negative points personally based on demonstrable recent results, but others have countered that notion.

4) None of this analysis explains why teams with byes won about 85-90% of Superbowls up through 2004. You can go back year by year in PFR and see this born out. The only exceptions I've stumbled across were - the Raiders in '80, Broncos in '97 and Ravens in '00. This is true even if we limit our analysis to 1990 on because that's when the wildcards expanded. I mean we have access to DVOA back through the early 90s. The best teams then were basically always in the 30-40% range too...and they were cleaning up over the wildcard teams in the 10-20% range far more than this meager "points" advantage by DVOA would indicate. We all agree there's more parity now than then, but that doesn't really apply to playoff teams at least if DVOA is to be believed.

[Daeric]

None of this analysis explains why teams with byes won about 85-90% of Superbowls up through 2004. You can go back year by year in PFR and see this born out. The only exceptions I've stumbled across were - the Raiders in '80, Broncos in '97 and Ravens in '00. This is true even if we limit our analysis to 1990 on because that's when the wildcards expanded. I mean we have access to DVOA back through the early 90s. The best teams then were basically always in the 30-40% range too...and they were cleaning up over the wildcard teams in the 10-20% range far more than this meager "points" advantage by DVOA would indicate. We all agree there's more parity now than then, but that doesn't really apply to playoff teams at least if DVOA is to be believed.

Were the teams up to that point resting the major elements of their offence before going into the bye week, or has that being a more recent trend? As that always seems to have some kind effect.

[Jabronius Maximus]

Did anyone watch the post game interview (on the field)? Tucker thanked himself for the points he earned for his own fantasy team :lol:

Also apparently Harbaugh was like: 'are we kicking or should we go for it?' And Tucker responded 'I got this' at the end of the game. Are kickers allowed to be this confident?