Aegon is real v2

[Princess_of_Sunspear]

if Elia had the opportunity to escape KL before or during the Sack... either Aerys or then Robert would have had a price on her head. She could not win in that scenario. And I believe she knew that.

It's not even Elia herself who was making the decisions, it was Varys. Why would he risk himself with Aerys or Robert?

[OnionAhaiReborn]

Doran's skepticism would have been exactly the same if Aegon were known to have survived. If someone claiming to be Aegon lands in Westeros, then he obviously needs to make sure it's really him, whether he's purported to be dead or not.

It is simply not possible that their skepticism would be the same if Aegon was known to have survived. Of course the knowledge that he survived makes it more likely that he's returned, so of course they'd have one less reason to doubt under those circumstances.

Fine, both could be called conspiracies(which I did allow in my first post about it), but one is still clearly more far-fetched.

No, I don't think one clearly is more far-fetched, and that's because of the available evidence. Well, actually, yes I do- I think the babyswap is far more farfetched. I think a new Blackfyre conspiracy is not farfetched at all. The fact that GRRM has given is us so much backstory on the Blackfyre rebellions is what makes it perfectly reasonable to expect further attempts to seize the throne by the Blackfyres. It's entirely in keeping with Westerosi history, which has experienced a few conspiracies to place Blackfyres on the throne already. From a broader perspective the investment GRRM has made in this backstory in itself suggests the likelihood of some narrative payoff.

Why are you prejudiced against bald people? :P

Anyways, I've explained why I feel Varys has no reason to lie.

Yea, I think we've reached the end of the tether on hashing this one out.

[Mladen]

Who would believe Elia is Elia and not some random salty Dornwishwoman? Doran? Why would someone believe him when he has vested interests in kicking the Lannister family off the throne and the face of the planet?

Elia was not anyone. She was Princess of Dorne and wife of Crowned Prince. She would be recognized by a lot of Westerosi. Doran would recognize her, for starter...

[butterbumps!]

That seems very hypocritical to me. Cersei isn't going to believe the spies when they tell her that Varys is looking to sow mistrust between her and everyone, but she will believe that Aegon is a Blackfyre? Also, what does it matter if Cersei thinks he's a Blackfyre? Either way he's an enemy of the state. Any rumours she spreads could easily be put down as slander to try and weaken her enemy's support.

Where exactly did the Aegon is a Blackfyre part come into this?

You asked what will happen if the spies report to an authority that it was Varys, not Tyrion, who killed Pycelle and Kevan. I answered that Cersei is going to believe it's Tyrion over Varys any day because she is obsessed with the idea of Tyrion coming back, and between the evidence Varys planted and the rumours implicating Tyrion, it seems very obvious that this insulates Varys despite what any spies might report back on.

I've not made any Blackfyre arguments in this thread, so I don't understand why you're asking about that. Varys wants everyone to believe Aegon is Rhaegar's son.

After seeing the madness of King Aerys how good the ruler needs to be is obviously important to him, as you don't want someone like a Joffrey or Viserys on the throne. Still doesn't explain why he deceives Kevan.

I gave you reasons why Varys would not have corrected Kevan's assumption. The fact that you are dismissing them out of hand speaks more toward stubbornness than any lack on the part of what I've suggested.

It seems utterly dishonest and absolutely unreasonable to dismiss the possibility of other ears, given that the Red Keep is notorious for spying, as a reason why Varys did not correct Kevan, given that the story he's selling is that Aegon is Rhaegar's son.

Additionally, I'm trying to tell you that it's what he's not saying that important-- the omission of the swap and explanation-- as well as what he's actually focused on-- an "enlightened monarch"-- that gives us true insight on Varys' mind.

He tells Kevan that Aegon is here knowing full well what it implies. There is no reason for this deception, even if he technically isn't lying.

If there is a chance that anyone who is not about to die is listening, then yes, it does answer why Varys would have let Kevan be deceived.

I'm not ruling out Aegon as a Blackfyre. I'm just saying why I believe him being a Targaryen is more likely than the alternatives.

I don't care about Aegon Blackfyre. I'm not arguing for Aegon Blackfyre. Regarding this particular exchange with you, I'm only arguing that this passage does not confirm anything about Aegon's identity. And given Varys' focus, I actually think it suggests the opposite of what you're using it to argue.

then we agree what "default" might be. You just missed a few when you first brought up "defaults."

You brought up 3 additional scenarios that are incompatible, so no, they aren't "defaults."

[WeaselPie]

It's not even Elia herself who was making the decisions, it was Varys. Why would he risk himself with Aerys or Robert?

I could go with the fact that either Varys was advising her, or someone else, or that she wasn't stupid and knew the risks of trying to personally escape without anyone having to tell her.

Risking escape (herself and kids) was CERTAIN death for herself and both her kids. A baby swap for Aegon, TPTWP? I can see her agreeing to that risk, if she was convinced by someone she trusted.

So I semi-agree in that I don't think it was Varys who risked his neck (at least directly with regards to Elia)

I agree with your sentiments overall, having read the thread.

[Princess_of_Sunspear]

Elia was not anyone. She was Princess of Dorne and wife of Crowned Prince. She would be recognized by a lot of Westerosi. Doran would recognize her, for starter...

Doran would, but he has vested interests, so he would be expected to, just like Roose "recognises" Arya. The rest could just simply fail to recognise her just so they don't have to deal with a wife of crowned prince and her royal offspring. Just like Tyrells simply refuse to believe that Joff and Tommen are abominations born out of incest, because it suits their needs to pretend they are a real deal.

Not to mention that was a personal, much bugger risk to Varys, as the guy who smuggles out the wife of said crowned prince. The one that is currently dying under the hammer of the guy who's finance he kidnapped. Poor Elia was only useful as a hostage to Aerys, and definitely someone disposable to Robert- who would only be interested in getting rid of her children.

[Facebookless Man]

If Varys was speaking for eavesdropper's ears, he'd say something like "Tyrion Lannister sends his regards" instead of laying out his plan to cause chaos.

You're saying, in the same breath, that Varys is talking at possible spies, and that the person those spies report to wouldn't believe their reports. Just to accomodate what you've already decided is true.

[E-Ro]

I think the real issue that demands our attention at this point in the thread is why would anyone be willing to buy a timeshare from a man known for his predilections for doublespeak and subterfuge, but not a friendly butterball. To me this can only be a sign of anti-butterball racialism, a vicious and disturbing prejudice if ever there was one.

Dude, this could not be a worse example. Quite frankly I have no idea what your trying to accomplish with this. But I would take varys word to that of a disgusting slimy butterball any day. they are known to be tricksters and I have had bad experiences with them in the past. all I can do is spread the word and warn you not to trust them.

oh and in case one attacks you, here is how you beat them http://bbsimg.ngfiles.com/1/22472000/ngbbs4d5da85c18c19.jpg

[Sages]

At this point to me I would consider it a great twist if Aegon actually turned out to be the real deal. A few facts below convinced me.

1. Dany being called the slayer of lies in the house of the undying, with one of the lies being the mummers dragon.
   
2. Jon connington's self reflection about the difference in looks between Aegon and Rhaegar in A Dance With Dragons.
   
3. The black dragon inn sign that is thrown into the river and when it washes ashore it is red with rust but underneath the rust, the sign is still black.
   

Since Aegon has just landed in Westeros by the end of Dance with dragons I imagine that eventually Dany will arrive and wipe away the rust revealing a black dragon underneath. Effectively slaying the lie. Though how she will manage to slay the lie I don't know.

[Facebookless Man]

Varys is the most misunderstood character in this series. Poor guy never even so much as uttered a lie.

[Mladen]

Doran would, but he has vested interests, so he would be expected to, just like Roose "recognises" Arya. The rest could just simply fail to recognise her just so they don't have to deal with a wife of crowned prince and her royal offspring. Just like Tyrells simply refuse to believe that Joff and Tommen are abominations born out of incest, because it suits their needs to pretend they are a real deal.

Not to mention that was a personal, much bugger risk to Varys, as the guy who smuggles out the wife of said crowned prince. The one that is currently dying under the hammer of the guy who's finance he kidnapped. Poor Elia was only useful as a hostage to Aerys, and definitely someone disposable to Robert- who would only be interested in getting rid of her children.

The entire argument is that Varys knew the boy would be unrecognizable due to wildfire plot. Well, if Varys counted on wildfire then he could have also counted on Elia and Rhaenys being unrecognizable too. It's a simple logic. So, the only reason this could have worked is that Varys precisely knew that Aegon would be unrecognizable and did what you some of you claimed he did. Given that he is not prophet, this suggest us that there was never a switch. And what risk are we talking about if everyone would assume that Elia burned in KL?

As you can see, there is so many contradictions so this story would actually be true.

[Facebookless Man]

Varys, if his alleged plan is true, never needed the baby to be unidentifiable. It arguably undermines his purposes.

[butterbumps!]

If Varys was speaking for eavesdropper's ears, he'd say something like "Tyrion Lannister sends his regards" instead of laying out his plan to cause chaos.

You're saying, in the same breath, that Varys is talking at possible spies, and that the person those spies report to wouldn't believe their reports. Just to accomodate what you've already decided is true.

You can quote me, you know.

This needs to be delaminated-- I was answering specific questions Lord of Dragonstone was asking, so the overall argument is conflated. I'm not arguing what you just summed up.

My position is that I believe Varys was speaking for an audience of some sort that is as of yet unidentified. I have no idea who this person could be, though as I said before, I think Qyburn is one good guess.

Lord of Dragonstone asked me about repercussions for Varys in terms of these spies implicating him to the authorities. That took me on that tangent where I addressed that issue separately, but in truth, I don't think that any audience to the exposition would necessarily run to Cersei for the purpose of telling on Varys.

There's a message in Varys' speech. I'm not claiming to know what it is exactly, but on the surface, he's basically broadcasting the return of Aegon, but oddly not talking about Aegon's alleged legitimacy. As with Kevan, he's letting people assume it's the real deal, but "selling" him on his abilities rather than authenticity.

If I were Varys and wanted people to join my cause, I'd probably give a similar speech-- let all the spies and whoever else is listening think Aegon's cause is good and just, and let them decide to quietly come over to the cause, undermining opponents in the process. If the target audience is Qyburn, this allows Qyburn to know there's going to be a new king in town, and get in on the ground floor (i.e. help Cersei blunder into obscurity, and perhaps there will be a job for you in this new regime). Same if there's Tyrell spies in the mix.

[Facebookless Man]

You can quote me, you know.

I intended my post to be right after yours but I got ninja'ed

Same if there's Tyrell spies in the mix.

My point is if there's Tyrell spies in the mix, he just told them he intends to frame them and cause strife between them and the Lannisters. Where he could just have said "I'm BFFs with Da Imp" if his intent was to mislead.

[E-Ro]

I intended my post to be right after yours but I got ninja'ed

dude I cant blame you for not wanting to quote the butterball, you dont wanna catch anything nasty.

[Sansa_Stark]

Are we still arguing that certain details from a scenario we know little about are facts?

:bang:

[WeaselPie]

Are we still arguing that certain details from a scenario we know little about are facts?

:bang:

... but that's pretty much every single thread

[Lord of Dragonstone]

It is simply not possible that their skepticism would be the same if Aegon was known to have survived. Of course the knowledge that he survived makes it more likely that he's returned, so of course they'd have one less reason to doubt under those circumstances.

What would he have done differently if Aegon were known to be in hiding somewhere?

No, I don't think one clearly is more far-fetched, and that's because of the available evidence. Well, actually, yes I do- I think the babyswap is far more farfetched. I think a new Blackfyre conspiracy is not farfetched at all. The fact that GRRM has given is us so much backstory on the Blackfyre rebellions is what makes it perfectly reasonable to expect further attempts to seize the throne by the Blackfyres. It's entirely in keeping with Westerosi history, which has experienced a few conspiracies to place Blackfyres on the throne already. From a broader perspective the investment GRRM has made in this backstory in itself suggests the likelihood of some narrative payoff.

Except the Blackfyres are presumed to be extinct. Do you think that just because [spoil]not all the dragons were killed in TPATQ that we should assume Sheepstealer to fly to Westeros and suddenly become a game changer? Or can we assume that since all dragons are thought to be dead except for Dany's that expecting another dragon to appear is improbable?[/spoil] Again, I'm not saying it's impossible Aegon is a Blackfyre. But given what we know I don't think it's fair to assume that Aegon is not what he purports to be.

Where exactly did the Aegon is a Blackfyre part come into this?

You asked what will happen if the spies report to an authority that it was Varys, not Tyrion, who killed Pycelle and Kevan. I answered that Cersei is going to believe it's Tyrion over Varys any day because she is obsessed with the idea of Tyrion coming back, and between the evidence Varys planted and the rumours implicating Tyrion, it seems very obvious that this insulates Varys despite what any spies might report back on.

What are you basing this assumption on? How can Varys now that Cersei is going to be selective in what she hears from the little birds? If there is any risk that Cersei finds out, why mention his plans to destabilize the kingdom at all?

I've not made any Blackfyre arguments in this thread, so I don't understand why you're asking about that. Varys wants everyone to believe Aegon is Rhaegar's son.

I gave you reasons why Varys would not have corrected Kevan's assumption. The fact that you are dismissing them out of hand speaks more toward stubbornness than any lack on the part of what I've suggested.

It seems utterly dishonest and absolutely unreasonable to dismiss the possibility of other ears, given that the Red Keep is notorious for spying, as a reason why Varys did not correct Kevan, given that the story he's selling is that Aegon is Rhaegar's son.

Additionally, I'm trying to tell you that it's what he's not saying that important-- the omission of the swap and explanation-- as well as what he's actually focused on-- an "enlightened monarch"-- that gives us true insight on Varys' mind.

If there is a chance that anyone who is not about to die is listening, then yes, it does answer why Varys would have let Kevan be deceived.

Here was from my last post:

I'd say the fact that he openly states he's trying to pit virtually everyone in the red keep against each other pretty much extinguishes the notion that he's worried about eavesdroppers.

So like I said, I don't think him worried about eavesdroppers is a viable explanation for deceiving Kevan given he's much more open about things which would be more damaging to his plans at the moment.

Varys talking about how he's molded Aegon into a good ruler does not bother me in the slightest, given where he's coming from, having experienced what can happen when you have a mad ruler like Aerys or an incompetent one like Robert.

[butterbumps!]

My point is if there's Tyrell spies in the mix, he just told them he intends to frame them and cause strife between them and the Lannisters. Where he could just have said "I'm BFFs with Da Imp" if his intent was to mislead.

I know what you're saying-- Varys is confessing to creating chaos between the Houses. I don't think that is damning though if Tyrell spies are listening. I mean, he's giving anyone listening subtle suggestions for alibis and the blame game, when you look at it, as well as saying that everyone will believe different accounts, there will be great strife ahead, and this is a sinking ship.......but there is another option whoever's listening can get on board with.

What are you basing this assumption on? How can Varys now that Cersei is going to be selective in what she hears from the little birds? If there is any risk that Cersei finds out, why mention his plans to destabilize the kingdom at all?

Seriously? The Cersei who dreams about Tyrion killing her every night and is convinced Tyrion is hiding out in the Red Keep, ready to pop out of a sock drawer one day and strangle her? I suppose if this isn't enough to make that "assumption," perhaps the fact that as soon as Kevan is hit with a crossbow bolt he cries "Tyrion?". Or the fact that Varys says Cersei will blame Tyrion supports this too? ( "Your niece will think the Tyrells had you murdered, mayhaps with the connivance of the Imp.") Varys is counting on Cersei thinking Tyrion has something to do with this.

Here was from my last post:

So like I said, I don't think him worried about eavesdroppers is a viable explanation for deceiving Kevan given he's much more open about things which would be more damaging to his plans at the moment.

Varys talking about how he's molded Aegon into a good ruler does not bother me in the slightest, given where he's coming from, having experienced what can happen when you have a mad ruler like Aerys or an incompetent one like Robert.

Please read my response to Facebookless Man at the beginning of this post, as well as my response here.