Aegon and the Iron Bank Debt

[Tywin Manderly]

Do you think that Aegon will assume responsibility for the Iron Throne's debt To the Iron Bank of Braavos or will he reject it as usurper debts?

[Sordelor]

Varys will probobly take care he doesn't make the same mistakes as Cersei, so probobly he'll pay the dept if he can.

[Blutraven]

I always imagine Dany would ignore all of the 'usurper' debts. Not sure about fAegon, JonCon seems clever enough to tell him to pay it though.

[Stan the Man Baratheon]

FAegon would also ignore the "Usurpers" debts.

[Red Raven]

If fAegon or Dany ignore the debt, they do so at their own peril. The Iron Bank gets its due...or else.

[Lion of the West]

Do you think that Aegon will assume responsibility for the Iron Throne's debt To the Iron Bank of Braavos or will he reject it as usurper debts?

No I don't think he'll do that, the bank will do it for him. The Iron Throne took those loans and they stand regardless of who happens to be on the throne. And if you don't like it, the bank will make sure its among the last things that you will do.

[joluoto2]

I doubt he will be able to pay it back (neither will Stannis). But he will probably be adviced to promise the Bank to pay it back.

[Nyrhex]

Do you think that Aegon will assume responsibility for the Iron Throne's debt To the Iron Bank of Braavos or will he reject it as usurper debts?

It does'nt matter if he acept it or not. The smart move would be to take the debt, but that depends on the Iron Bank.

The whole point why the Iron Bank is now backing Stannis is because of it's reputation. The crown is 6 million dragons in debt. 3m are to the Lannisters, 1m is to the faith. 2m are to the Tyrells, Tyroshi trade cartels, and the Iron Bank combined. It's not realy that much money owed to the IB when you think about it. Saan's 30 ships cost ~30k dragons per month. How much do you think a fleet of Braavosi war galleys, an army of 20,000 Essosi sellswords, and supplies for a winter campaign are going to cost? Alot.

But here is the thing: Even if Aegon wants to take on the debt in return for the credit line it opens for him, the IB had signed a contract with Stannis.The whole point the bank is going to war is for reputation. What will breaking a contract do to that reputation? Can lords and kings and merchant princes no longer trust that the bank will fill it's own part in agreements?

If the Iron Bank is fighting for it's reputation, it will back Stannis, with whom it already has a signed contract. Not just anybody from the street who comes with a cunning plan to invade Westeros.

[Archibald Big Man]

JonCon would have him pay it I think, even though Aegon would likely want to reject the debt for prides sake.

[Stan the Man Baratheon]

It does'nt matter if he acept it or not. The smart move would be to take the debt, but that depends on the Iron Bank.

The whole point why the Iron Bank is now backing Stannis is because of it's reputation. The crown is 6 million dragons in debt. 3m are to the Lannisters, 1m is to the faith. 2m are to the Tyrells, Tyroshi trade cartels, and the Iron Bank combined. It's not realy that much money owed to the IB when you think about it. Saan's 30 ships cost ~30k dragons per month. How much do you think a fleet of Braavosi war galleys, an army of 20,000 Essosi sellswords, and supplies for a winter campaign are going to cost? Alot.

But here is the thing: Even if Aegon wants to take on the debt in return for the credit line it opens for him, the IB had signed a contract with Stannis.The whole point the bank is going to war is for reputation. What will breaking a contract do to that reputation? Can lords and kings and merchant princes no longer trust that the bank will fill it's own part in agreements?

If the Iron Bank is fighting for it's reputation, it will back Stannis, with whom it already has a signed contract. Not just anybody from the street who comes with a cunning plan to invade Westeros.

:agree:

[The Drunkard]

I imagine he would, if he listens to his advisers. JonCon seems too savvy and too cautious to oppose the IB. Wandering the Free Cities for past fifteen odd years would've familiarized him with the reputation the IB holds, and pissing it off just as he defeats his enemies on Westeros would be Cersei-tier silly.

[Razha]

It does'nt matter if he acept it or not. The smart move would be to take the debt, but that depends on the Iron Bank.

The whole point why the Iron Bank is now backing Stannis is because of it's reputation. The crown is 6 million dragons in debt. 3m are to the Lannisters, 1m is to the faith. 2m are to the Tyrells, Tyroshi trade cartels, and the Iron Bank combined. It's not realy that much money owed to the IB when you think about it. Saan's 30 ships cost ~30k dragons per month. How much do you think a fleet of Braavosi war galleys, an army of 20,000 Essosi sellswords, and supplies for a winter campaign are going to cost? Alot.

But here is the thing: Even if Aegon wants to take on the debt in return for the credit line it opens for him, the IB had signed a contract with Stannis.The whole point the bank is going to war is for reputation. What will breaking a contract do to that reputation? Can lords and kings and merchant princes no longer trust that the bank will fill it's own part in agreements?

If the Iron Bank is fighting for it's reputation, it will back Stannis, with whom it already has a signed contract. Not just anybody from the street who comes with a cunning plan to invade Westeros.

:agree:

However I think there is a chance that they will be open for negotiations if Stannis dies (even if eventually it turns out to that this was just a rumour).

[Jaak]

If Iron Bank betrays Stannis and supports Aegon, they lose reputation.

If Iron Bank supports Stannis and Aegon defeats Stannis´ army hired by Iron Bank then Iron Bank also loses reputation.

[Nyrhex]

If Iron Bank supports Stannis and Aegon defeats Stannis´ army hired by Iron Bank then Iron Bank also loses reputation.

Not the same reputation. If Stannis is defaeted, the Iron bank buys another army and places Shireen on the throne. Stannis and his line (Shireen, and if he legitimizes Robert's bastards, they too) owns the debt, and the credit.

The Iron bank has no problem to buy more armies if it means getting it's goal - Keeping it's reputation. They can suffer the cost of more defeats than Aegon and any other can suffer the cost of victories.

[Jaak]

The Iron bank has no problem to buy more armies if it means getting it's goal - Keeping it's reputation. They can suffer the cost of more defeats than Aegon and any other can suffer the cost of victories.

No, their ability to field armies is not unlimited. Stannis hoped that Massey would hire 20 000 sellswords in Essos even if he cannot get Golden Company. Assume he does... but Massey´s 20 000 men confront the 10 000 Golden Company - who are man to man better than the other companies - PLUS the Westerosi armies rallied behind Aegon. If Massey´s 20 000 men lose... how big army will Iron Bank be able to hire in Essos?

Oh, and taking 30 000 sellswords out of labour pool of Essos (10 000 Golden Company plus the 20 000 men of Massey who are either dead or turned cloaks) has other effects. Like, weakening Essos against Dothraki... like Khal Pono.

[Shadrich]

No, their ability to field armies is not unlimited. Stannis hoped that Massey would hire 20 000 sellswords in Essos even if he cannot get Golden Company. Assume he does... but Massey´s 20 000 men confront the 10 000 Golden Company - who are man to man better than the other companies - PLUS the Westerosi armies rallied behind Aegon. If Massey´s 20 000 men lose... how big army will Iron Bank be able to hire in Essos?

Oh, and taking 30 000 sellswords out of labour pool of Essos (10 000 Golden Company plus the 20 000 men of Massey who are either dead or turned cloaks) has other effects. Like, weakening Essos against Dothraki... like Khal Pono.

I don't think there would be just one huge battle of Stannis' forces against Aegon's forces.

Stannis' new Companies would allow him to gain control of more lands - and therefore more Lords would join Stannis.

Even 30,000 Sellswords, is a tiny proportion of the population of sellswords in Essos. 30,000 could probably be gathered at Volantis alone.

[Heyo Winter Comin']

I've made the argument on a previous thread that whoever takes the throne will have to pay the debt or suffer enormous consequences. Odious debt, which is the refusal of a regime to pay the previous regimes debts, is a very new concept, mostly in the 20th/21st century, and regime changes prior to that all assumed the debts of the state. If anyone reneges on the IB debt then their reputation is destroyed and when they have to borrow more money, which they will, especially as the realm is in chaos, then it would be at ridiculous rates of interest as nobody would trust the Throne to pay it back. If they still chose not to pay back the debt then Westeros currency would become nearly worthless as the Throne would have to mint it's own money and it would only further entrench the continent as an economically isolated backwater. And there's no way Illyrio or Dany could have enough money to pay back their debts. Illyrio is a wealthy merchant and Dany has the wealth of some prosperous city states, while the 7K is the largest state since the Valyrian Freehold.

[Shadrich]

I've made the argument on a previous thread that whoever takes the throne will have to pay the debt or suffer enormous consequences. Odious debt, which is the refusal of a regime to pay the previous regimes debts, is a very new concept, mostly in the 20th/21st century, and regime changes prior to that all assumed the debts of the state. If anyone reneges on the IB debt then their reputation is destroyed and when they have to borrow more money, which they will, especially as the realm is in chaos, then it would be at ridiculous rates of interest as nobody would trust the Throne to pay it back. If they still chose not to pay back the debt then Westeros currency would become nearly worthless as the Throne would have to mint it's own money and it would only further entrench the continent as an economically isolated backwater. And there's no way Illyrio or Dany could have enough money to pay back their debts. Illyrio is a wealthy merchant and Dany has the wealth of some prosperous city states, while the 7K is the largest state since the Valyrian Freehold.

I don't think IB expects to be paid the whole debt back at once. As far as person who they support is on the throne, and is gradually paying it back, they will be okay with it.

[mediterraneo]

I find the Iron Bank's power a bit exagerated.
If there is not some magical connection between the bank and the faceless men, which could end up in asassination attempts on debtors, the bank has only a shot at Westeros if and when the contnent is divided and multiple candidates are avaible.
With a recognized king (or queen) on the throne, able to pull all the levers of his/her power...
The Iron Bank, powerful as it may be, represents the interests of part of the economy of one of the nine Free Cities of the Narrow sea, and is just one of the at least 15-20 states existing in Essos. Even admitting that it is bigger than average, it would be quite less GNP, manpower and commercial capacity than Westeros as a whole. And without gunships and westerosi opium sellers in westerosi ports to tip the balance to his side.
Is Braavos bigger than an average Free City? It surely appears to be bigger than Ibben. Probably it is smaller than Volantis, judging from their port bays. How does it relate to Pentos, Lys and Tyrosh?
Braavos won a war against Pentos that ended in a negotiated peace: you have to enforce a policy (no slaves in the town) and Pentos formally respects the deal, but mantains indipendence and Pentoshis richs observe the no-slaves rule in form only, not in practice. It suggests to me that Braavos is in the same weight class than Pentos.
Lys sports a strong pirate fleet, even when Braavos navy seems to be reputed the strongest one, at least in the Narrow Sea: Lyseni pirates are hurting Braavos commerce, inevitabily. And they are not crushed.
I have no ideas about Tyrosh, not even to attempt these kind of tentative and possibly faulty deductions.
But Qarth's merchants are said to have access to thousands of ships, and Narrow Sea navies are smaller than that. Maybe Xaro Xoan Daxos and Daenerys were counting smaller vessels as ships too when bargaining ships for a dragon while Sallador Saan and Victarion, counting their ships in tens, are counting only big, war-worthy vessels, as the Royal Fleet Stannis had and the Arbor fleet numbering in the low hundreds.

How do the Slaver's Bay cities measure against this? Mereen's resources and population seem quite massive, too. Maybe Yunkai and Astapor are a bit smaller, but the Yunkai can defy the power of Mereen and the Dragon Queen after their initial defeat, and without using any of the slaves Daenerys brought away with her.
The Iron Bank cannot access the whole of Braavos's resources, not full time at least, even if they surely can have the Sealord's attention and support when they ask for it.
Let's ask one more question: how does Braavos, or any Free City measure against King's Landing? And against King's Landing, plus White Harbour, plus Dragonstone and Storm's End, and Oldtown and the Arbor's fleet and commercial power, plus Sunspear and their wine export? Let's not count the Iron Islands and Lannisport on the other sea.
But a king recognized as such by the whole kingdom would be able to negotiate his own conditions for paying his debt with any bank in Braavos.
Probably he would end up choosing to pay, in a way he likes, because it could really be a mess of a conflict, with piracy and commerce blocks, and even a couple of raids here and there on the peripheries... The King would have to recognize that peace and commerce are better than pride and piracy. But the Sealord would too. And the merchants in Braavos unrelated to the bank would too.
And in no way the bank would be able to raise armies alone to put a "nobody" on the throne against the power of the Seven Kingdoms united. Their window of opportunity is now, during a civil war.

[Fire and Blood!]

If I'm in Aegon's position I would certainly refuse to pay. I'd declare that because Robert was an illegitimate king, the crown is not responsible for any and all debts made by him. If the Iron Bank wants to force the king of Westeros to pay they're welcome to try, anyone believing that Braavos can successfully wage full scale war against the entire realm of Westeros is sorely mislead. Also the crown is already minting it's own coins and they wouldn't loose their value since said value is determined by the amount of gold used in their production, do not confuse them with modern money.