Another Thought on Loras

[The Fresh PtwP]

People really need to give much more consideration to the meaning and implications of the Tyrell alliance with Littlefinger.

Hmm, I think the alliance is over. Remember Olenna had plans to ship Sansa off to Willas. Sansa tells Dontos of the plan. Dontos tells LF. LF tells Tywin...but Mace is right there when LF tells Tywin. Tywins next move is sending everyone away and forcing Tyrion to wed Sansa but Mace already heard. Next thing we know PW happens and Olenna leaves the capital. Very shady.

In fact thinking about it more, If anyone were to take out LF my money is on the QoT

[The Mother of The Others]

Out of striking distance. And she only has a couple months before senility sets in. Baelish can just wait till she's eating jello.

[The Fresh PtwP]

Out of striking distance. And she only has a couple months before senility sets in. Baelish can just wait till she's eating jello.

:lmao: Can't breath...

I just think she has a better chance to take Baelish out than Sansa.

[juanml82]

I think Loras is too dumb to bleed the Lannisters on purpose.

[butterbumps!]

Nicely done, OP. I can't believe I hadn't seen this thread until now.

Incidentally, something's been niggling me about whether Dragonstone's actually fallen at all.

What confirmation of the end of the siege do we get exactly? Aurane's word, then Mace's at the end? Mace's words in the Epilogue kind of seem like bullshit-- he makes a lot of noise about how Loras and his men didn't find anything inside, claiming that Stannis must have taken it with him. Did they actually not find anything because, um, Dragonstone wasn't actually taken?

Here's the other part that nags me: Dragonstone falls before Riverrun does. But in Sansa III, FFC, which comes after both Cersei VIII (Dragonstone falls) and Jaime VI (Riverrun surrenders), Randa reports that Riverrun has fallen, but that Dragonstone and Storm's End still hold out. Now, the news the Vale gets could simply be inaccurate, or maybe Randa's actually right on this-- Dragonstone hasn't actually fallen.

[Ragnorak]

I think you have some thematic support with Jaime's conversation with Edmure where he threatens to send the Riverlands men in to be slaughtered first if he needs to assault Riverrun. Parallels between the Lannisters and Tyrells are often made with the Tyrells just being a more polite version of the same political animal whose siblings don't want to murder each other and your theory fits well with that idea. I always focused in on the weighted numbers of nobility in "not just common men, Your Grace, but knights and young lords, the best and the bravest." That also gives the possibility of a parallel to Littlefinger's reasoning to Sansa on why Loras would be a good choice to send after Clegane as a means of deliberately sowing dissent in Lannister bannermen.

[Mrs.Grumpy]

Nicely done, OP. I can't believe I hadn't seen this thread until now.

Incidentally, something's been niggling me about whether Dragonstone's actually fallen at all.

What confirmation of the end of the siege do we get exactly? Aurane's word, then Mace's at the end? Mace's words in the Epilogue kind of seem like bullshit-- he makes a lot of noise about how Loras and his men didn't find anything inside, claiming that Stannis must have taken it with him. Did they actually not find anything because, um, Dragonstone wasn't actually taken?

Here's the other part that nags me: Dragonstone falls before Riverrun does. But in Sansa III, FFC, which comes after both Cersei VIII (Dragonstone falls) and Jaime VI (Riverrun surrenders), Randa reports that Riverrun has fallen, but that Dragonstone and Storm's End still hold out. Now, the news the Vale gets could simply be inaccurate, or maybe Randa's actually right on this-- Dragonstone hasn't actually fallen.

Let's say Randa's reports are false, why didn't a single raven get the Wall with a letter that says Dragonstone is fallen.

I actually still think the Septa is not even talking about Loras here, but Willas (described as boring and pious by Littlefinger) who maybe asked to attend Marg's trail as attestor (for her virginity) or something.

Now that's interesting.

Either way, there is something off with Loras and Dragonstone.

[Martin Lasarte]

I can even see a scenario where the Lannister men are sent to the vanguard and end up ambushed by the Tyrells. They would be completely slaughtered, being trapped between the Tyrell army and Dragonstone's garrison.

[Universal Sword Donor]

That would be a hell of a misdirection, then. I don't remember anything about Loras being perfumed, and he's most certainly not a seneschal.

Not to buy into the crackpot theory too much, but his house sigil is a rose. He's been described as pissing rosewater, which is used in perfume. I don't necessarily think he's the one who would betray Dany -- it could easily be Willas or Garth Tyrell -- or that it would even be a Tyrell, but Reznak is almost too obvious.

On a different note, I have a hard time believing that Loras is mortally wounded or critically injured as well. Many people here have laid out great reasons (leech Lannister host, Waters informing Cersei and bolting, et al). One I haven't see put forth is the character we know who have also been the first or near enough to storm a castle or city. Thoros was first through the breach at Pyke, followed closely by Jorah, and we don't even hear of injuries from that particular battle. Robert was the first up the ladders at Gulltown, and he apparently didn't take any serious wounds. Contrast that later to both the BotB following Summerhall and the Trident where he's explicitly noted as wounded. There's a precedent for middling to slightly major characters for living through and thriving after storming cities or castles. To be honest, I can't think of a single character, about whom we know more than a sentence or two, who has been critically hurt while attacking a fixed fortification. The closest I would consider would be Hoster Tully, but he was wounded inside of Stoney Sept and still managed to live for another 20ish years. Feel free to pick that apart. I'm sure I looked over one character or another, one fantastic problem that arises from having such a large, awesome world to read about.

Edit: Just thought about Mereen, and I don't think Jorah, Belwas, or Barristan were hurt in a significant way, but that's just my recollection.

[Gustavo]

I'm convinced. Looks like Cersei is really fucked

[Hippocras]

Hmm, I think the alliance is over. Remember Olenna had plans to ship Sansa off to Willas. Sansa tells Dontos of the plan. Dontos tells LF. LF tells Tywin...but Mace is right there when LF tells Tywin. Tywins next move is sending everyone away and forcing Tyrion to wed Sansa but Mace already heard. Next thing we know PW happens and Olenna leaves the capital. Very shady.

In fact thinking about it more, If anyone were to take out LF my money is on the QoT

I originally thought so too. The hints in the books of any continuation are not very strong.

However the show has made me strongly suspect otherwise, and they have been building it since the second season so it is something that is not just a convenient show change but and actual long term strategy. Which means it is probably based on something we don't know yet in the books.

Forgive the show evidence, but it is clearer than the book evidence:

Season two, LF is in the tent with Margery right after Renly died. He asks her if she wants to be a queen. She says she wants to be THE queen. This obviously is not in the books because the show made Margery a stronger character than the books. However regardless, LF's reaction there was telling. He gave that little smile he has that meant "I know what you want, I am going to use that". This scene took place only one episode after Cersei played power games against him to assert her authority, pretending she was about to have him killed. That was the moment on screen when LF's alliance with the Lannisters died. They just didn't know it yet.

So LF had been plotting with the Tyrells since he visited their camp in season 2 (same in the books). This was about more than Margery marrying Joffrey. It was a long term plot. As we know from the books, LF also planted the seeds leading to Joffrey's murder on that same visit, by letting them know Joffrey was awful.

Jump to season 4 and we have LF telling Sansa about his "new friends" who are predictable, reasonable people. We know he is referring to the Tyrells, but he is referring to them in the PRESENT tense. This is AFTER Joffrey's murder and strongly implies the alliance is ongoing.

We do know that LF has some long term game he is playing. Since he is no longer in the capital to play it, you have to wonder how he is influencing anything there anymore, especially considering that he clearly thinks the Kettleblacks are expendable. And he must be influencing things there, because leaving the fate of the throne purely in the hands of others with no source of information and no means to prod events in a direction that pleases him is definitely not his style.

Therefore I think he is plotting his next steps with the Tyrells, but his final goals are not theirs. I think he might actually know about Aegon (he implied in the books that he had a whopper of a secret to use against Varys) and if so, has told the Tyrells about him. The Tyrells have been planning their exit from the Lannister alliance ever since they were told, and I think the Tyrells might be the ones who will be allied with Aegon (not Dorne).

I also think that some of the guardians who Davos sent away with Edric Storm are possibly still sympathetic to the Tyrells who were their former allies under Renly. I think Edric Storm is the means by which Aegon will take Storm's End "with guile", and that the Golden Company ships that took a detour went to Lys to pick him up. This move using Edric makes far more sense via a Tyrell plot than via a Dornish one, since Dorne does not have strong links to the Lords of the Stormlands, and since it is Reach forces who are manning the siege at Storm's End and who therefore have the ability to use Edric to gain access.

So, IF these things are true:

1. Aurane's ships and possibly Loras might show up in the Vale intending to bring Vale armies to whichever location they wish to conquer supposedly in Aegon's name. LF may have different ideas though.

2. The Tyrells might kill Tommen to free Margery to marry again, or they might simply have Aegon annul the marriage on the grounds that Tommen was too young to consummate the marriage. Margery would then marry Aegon, bringing with her the armies of the Reach, and abandoning the Lannisters, leaving them effectively defenseless.

[Mithras]

People really need to give much more consideration to the meaning and implications of the Tyrell alliance with Littlefinger.

I think that alliance never existed. LF acted like a Lannister lapdog while indirectly manipulating the Tyrells. That is the most plausible explanation in the book version of events IMO. I think the canon Purple Wedding story has some serious holes in it and GRRM felt the necessity to remind us that although the show version is the canon, he still has two more books to present some surprises for us.

[Hippocras]

I think that alliance never existed. LF acted like a Lannister lapdog while indirectly manipulating the Tyrells. That is the most plausible explanation in the book version of events IMO. I think the canon Purple Wedding story has some serious holes in it and GRRM felt the necessity to remind us that although the show version is the canon, he still has two more books to present some surprises for us.

Well LF is never a completely reliable ally anyway, so no matter how it actually happened, he did form alliances of convenience, first with Lysa, then with the Lannisters, then with the Tyrells. Hints suggest this last one is ongoing.

[ForgottenKnight]

Excellent theory. I had never considered Loras' fate to be a ruse. Perhaps Littlefinger is involved with his "new friends".

[The Fresh PtwP]

I originally thought so too. The hints in the books of any continuation are not very strong.

However the show has made me strongly suspect otherwise, and they have been building it since the second season so it is something that is not just a convenient show change but and actual long term strategy. Which means it is probably based on something we don't know yet in the books.

Forgive the show evidence, but it is clearer than the book evidence:

Season two, LF is in the tent with Margery right after Renly died. He asks her if she wants to be a queen. She says she wants to be THE queen. This obviously is not in the books because the show made Margery a stronger character than the books. However regardless, LF's reaction there was telling. He gave that little smile he has that meant "I know what you want, I am going to use that". This scene took place only one episode after Cersei played power games against him to assert her authority, pretending she was about to have him killed. That was the moment on screen when LF's alliance with the Lannisters died. They just didn't know it yet.

So LF had been plotting with the Tyrells since he visited their camp in season 2 (same in the books). This was about more than Margery marrying Joffrey. It was a long term plot. As we know from the books, LF also planted the seeds leading to Joffrey's murder on that same visit, by letting them know Joffrey was awful.

Jump to season 4 and we have LF telling Sansa about his "new friends" who are predictable, reasonable people. We know he is referring to the Tyrells, but he is referring to them in the PRESENT tense. This is AFTER Joffrey's murder and strongly implies the alliance is ongoing.

We do know that LF has some long term game he is playing. Since he is no longer in the capital to play it, you have to wonder how he is influencing anything there anymore, especially considering that he clearly thinks the Kettleblacks are expendable. And he must be influencing things there, because leaving the fate of the throne purely in the hands of others with no source of information and no means to prod events in a direction that pleases him is definitely not his style.

Therefore I think he is plotting his next steps with the Tyrells, but his final goals are not theirs. I think he might actually know about Aegon (he implied in the books that he had a whopper of a secret to use against Varys) and if so, has told the Tyrells about him. The Tyrells have been planning their exit from the Lannister alliance ever since they were told, and I think the Tyrells might be the ones who will be allied with Aegon (not Dorne).

I also think that some of the guardians who Davos sent away with Edric Storm are possibly still sympathetic to the Tyrells who were their former allies under Renly. I think Edric Storm is the means by which Aegon will take Storm's End "with guile", and that the Golden Company ships that took a detour went to Lys to pick him up. This move using Edric makes far more sense via a Tyrell plot than via a Dornish one, since Dorne does not have strong links to the Lords of the Stormlands, and since it is Reach forces who are manning the siege at Storm's End and who therefore have the ability to use Edric to gain access.

So, IF these things are true:

1. Aurane's ships and possibly Loras might show up in the Vale intending to bring Vale armies to whichever location they wish to conquer supposedly in Aegon's name. LF may have different ideas though.

2. The Tyrells might kill Tommen to free Margery to marry again, or they might simply have Aegon annul the marriage on the grounds that Tommen was too young to consummate the marriage. Margery would then marry Aegon, bringing with her the armies of the Reach, and abandoning the Lannisters, leaving them effectively defenseless.

1.) How can the show (not by the author) be clearer than the books (by the author).

2.) Because the show gave us a Tyrell POV. Marg isn't any "stronger"

3.) "What victories has he ever won that we should fear him? He could have ended Robert's Rebellion at Stoney Sept. He failed. Just as the Golden Company has always failed. Some may rush to join them, aye. The realm is well rid of such fools." - Mace on rushing to join Aegon.

4.) How does that even make sense?

[Hippocras]

1.) How can the show (not by the author) be clearer than the books (by the author).

2.) Because the show gave us a Tyrell POV. Marg isn't any "stronger"

3.) "What victories has he ever won that we should fear him? He could have ended Robert's Rebellion at Stoney Sept. He failed. Just as the Golden Company has always failed. Some may rush to join them, aye. The realm is well rid of such fools." - Mace on rushing to join Aegon.

4.) How does that even make sense?

1. The set-up is more obvious. That is why it is clearer. It is hinted in the books, but just harder to extract and discuss. Try to read the points made rather than just getting offended because I said something about the show was good.

2. Margery in the books is nothing but a pawn with no thoughts or actions of her own. There is no way to argue that Margery in the books is a fully flushed out and complex character. She is not. In the show she is manipulative, driven, and complex and it is a very good thing. The books are not the bible. Some changes are good in the show, and Margery actually being interesting is one of those.

3. The Tyrells joining Aegon makes sense as a power play for the Tyrells, given the hopelessness of the Lannister alliance. It is the Tyrell end game potentially, but not Littlefinger's.

4. How does it not? No one know dick all about where Aurane went, but he arrived in KL with the Tyrells, and disappeared shortly after Loras, while being the one to provide Loras with an alibi. Aurane is team Tyrell, whatever the Tyrells are up to.

[The Fresh PtwP]

1. The set-up is more obvious. That is why it is clearer. It is hinted in the books, but just harder to extract and discuss. Try to read the points made rather than just getting offended because I said something about the show was good.

2. Margery in the books is nothing but a pawn with no thoughts or actions of her own. There is no way to argue that Margery in the books is a fully flushed out and complex character. She is not. In the show she is manipulative, driven, and complex and it is a very good thing. The books are not the bible. Some changes are good in the show, and Margery actually being interesting is one of those.

3. The Tyrells joining Aegon makes sense as a power play for the Tyrells, given the hopelessness of the Lannister alliance. It is the Tyrell end game potentially, but not Littlefinger's.

4. How does it not? No one know dick all about where Aurane went, but he arrived in KL with the Tyrells, and disappeared shortly after Loras, while being the one to provide Loras with an alibi. Aurane is team Tyrell, whatever the Tyrells are up to.

1.) I'm not offended, and I like the show. Thanks for the sass though. As for the set-up being more "obvious" it just appears that way because in the show we get LF and Margaery's perspective. The Tyrells have no further use of LF and he double crossed them and they know! Marg is Queen, Mace is hand, what does LF have to offer?

2.) We don't get a Margaery POV like we did in the show. That doesn't mean she's any stronger...she just gets more screen time.

3.) I forgot you speak for the Tyrells and not Mace, my bad.

4.) There are a ton of teams Aurane could be on and most of them more likely than the Tyrells and also:

There's a new pirate king who styles himself the Lord of Waters . From the Arianne TWoW chapter

[Mithras]

4.) There are a ton of teams Aurane could be on and most of them more likely than the Tyrells and also:

There's a new pirate king who styles himself the Lord of Waters . From the Arianne TWoW chapter

Anybody who takes residence as a pirate in the Stepstones is in for Team Himself. Aurane is in Team Aurane but that does not mean he willnot join a faction in the future.

[Trigger Warning]

It does seem strange, but you shouldn't disregard Willas so easily. Just because he is crippled doesn't mean he can't fight - or more importantly, command troops. IIRC, he's not as badly damaged as Bran - he only had his leg broken and heal at an odd angle.

I think the more obvious hint is that Mace doesn't really seem to care that Loras is supposedly dying.

[ladyinblack]

How many other Lords & Princes have set themselves up in the Stepstones? Interesting history there controlling the shipping lanes.

Lots of possibilities for mayhem & mischief

I don't Loras is as injured as reported Think the Tryells are making their move. They want the IT

But then again, he can be rash & maybe it was a suicide mission??

I think LF is still communicating with them but on his terms

What I love in this series is how the master minds -Illyrio,Varys & LF seem so unfazed when their well conceived schemes become unraveled & quickly they are plotting a diabolic alternative