Another Thought on Loras

[Hippocras]

1.) I'm not offended, and I like the show. Thanks for the sass though. As for the set-up being more "obvious" it just appears that way because in the show we get LF and Margaery's perspective. The Tyrells have no further use of LF and he double crossed them and they know! Marg is Queen, Mace is hand, what does LF have to offer?

2.) We don't get a Margaery POV like we did in the show. That doesn't mean she's any stronger...she just gets more screen time.

3.) I forgot you speak for the Tyrells and not Mace, my bad.

4.) There are a ton of teams Aurane could be on and most of them more likely than the Tyrells and also:

There's a new pirate king who styles himself the Lord of Waters . From the Arianne TWoW chapter

Sorry. Maybe I over reacted. I argued with some passionate show haters yesterday and they simply ignored the points and called me a show apologist, so some residual annoyance on my part there.

Margery is a stronger character, in the sense that she is more developed and real in the show Stronger in a literary/artistic sense. I was not referring to a personality trait.

The thing with Aurane is that he provides Loras's alibi. Any theory that takes as a starting point that Loras may not be badly injured needs to account for the fact that it was Aurane who CLAIMED he was badly injured. Of course that changes if Loras actually IS badly injured then Aurane did not lie for him.

[Slayer of Vampires]

Hippocras, that's really interesting what you say regarding the Dornish, and I'd just come up with something similar. Like most people here, I haven't believed since the first read that Loras was injured and had the idea that he'd gone to forge an alliance with Aegon. My problem was 'how does Loras know about Aegon?' I've been considering the regular correspondence we hear of between Willas and Oberyn Martell (until his death by mountain) and that they are firm friends. Perhaps Doran thought to 'raven' Willas after Oberyns death. We hear the Tyrells and Oberyn are enemies due to Willas's accident but perhaps it's not the Tyrells, so much as just Mace. This connection provides a nice opportunity for news of Aegon to reach Loras, via Willas.

Edited for grammar.

[HexMachina]

I disagree that Marg is stronger on the show, just more blatantly.obvious. But that is besides the point, lets not let this thread turn into a show versus books thread and get locked. The show should not be used as evidence imo

[Mithras]

The thing with Aurane is that he provides Loras's alibi. Any theory that takes as a starting point that Loras may not be badly injured needs to account for the fact that it was Aurane who CLAIMED he was badly injured. Of course that changes if Loras actually IS badly injured then Aurane did not lie for him.

But he escapes with the royal fleet as soon as shit hits the fan. Randyll and Mace started rush to the KL after hearing what the hell is going on.

[Hippocras]

I disagree that Marg is stronger on the show, just more blatantly.obvious. But that is besides the point, lets not let this thread turn into a show versus books thread and get locked. The show should not be used as evidence imo

The show runners know where the arcs are going, and when they make longer term moves that set things up seasons in advance that is something that is meaningful. So I disagree. Some things the show does are short term variations, but the long term set-ups are in fact evidence.

[Hippocras]

But he escapes with the royal fleet as soon as shit hits the fan. Randyll and Mace started rush to the KL after hearing what the hell is going on.

He took the fleet somewhere, yes. But if he is providing an alibi for Loras, who is not injured, that can only mean one of two things: he is covering for his buddy Loras, or Loras is his hostage and he is not ready to tell anyone that yet. The first is more believable.

He has definitely camped the fleet on the Stepstones, but I don't think he is just some pirate. I think he is making a move with allies. He might go to Dorne, to Dany, to Stannis, to the Vale....we really don't know.

But based on the alibi thing, the Tyrells seem like a good bet.

[Mithras]

He took the fleet somewhere, yes. But if he is providing an alibi for Loras, who is not injured, that can only mean one of two things: he is covering for his buddy Loras, or Loras is his hostage and he is not ready to tell anyone that yet. The first is more believable.

Or he is just doing what he was told by Loras because he is in no position to object as a bastard “Lord” with nothing. However, when the Redwyne fleet turns back to fight ironborn (which seems to take long according to him) and Margaery/Cersei are arrested, he gained the opportunity to take the royal Fleet to him. He is carving himself a place in the Stepstones just like many people before him did.

[butterbumps!]

Let's say Randa's reports are false, why didn't a single raven get the Wall with a letter that says Dragonstone is fallen.

Yea, I mean, you'd think this news would be discussed at the Wall, being as how Stannis and then Selyse take up there. Here's a timeline of summarized chapters (the pertinent chapters are in the spoilers). So, well after Dragonstone allegedly falls, Selyse and Tycho show up at Castle Black (they had been at Eastwatch). Now, we can speculate that Selyse wouldn't tell anyone if Dragonstone had fallen, but Tycho, the IronBanker who is looking to find a new Iron Throne investment, certainly would care if Stannis' seat had fallen, as something like that kind of affects his plans. And this is exactly the sort of news you'd think would arrive at Eastwatch, being a port and all. Arguably, once Tycho leaves the Wall to find Stannis, he might not be getting news in the event the news was just late in coming, but then we never get any indication from Mel or Selyse about Dragonstone either.

[Hippocras]

Or he is just doing what he was told by Loras because he is in no position to object as a bastard Lord with nothing. However, when the Redwyne fleet turns back to fight ironborn (which seems to take long according to him) and Margaery/Cersei are arrested, he gained the opportunity to take the royal Fleet to him. He is carving himself a place in the Stepstones just like many people before him did.

Maybe. Or maybe he is just parking the fleet on the Stepstones until his allies, whoever they are, are ready to make their move.

[igrewupinKL]

i actually really like the theory that Loras is alive. It just shows how oblivious Cersei is to everything that is going on around her.

I must admit there is some pretty good evidence that Loras is indeed alive. The gruesome nature of his 'dying' is overly exaggerated and i think it is a cover up. Combined with the fact that no one else seems to know that Dragonstone has been taken...I also fail to see how people don't believe how the Tyrells could outsmart Cersei. They already have before, and they will again in the future.

[ambi76]

I think the thing about Dragonstone having fallen or not is also that most people forget that this event/non-event was probably just a few weeks ago timeline wise in the story, and when they argue that nobody could keep such a conspirancy up for so long they are thinking (with horror :bang: ) of the six years between AFFC and ADWD (and another six four till TWOW).

[The Crow's Third Eye]

Well, here was me thinking that my thread was dead and buried :) I'm not sure who revived it :p

The OP has been updated (partially, its a work in progress) with some of the thoughts mentioned in this thread

[ForgottenKnight]

I don't think that Dragonstone being taken is false, just Loras' fate. Loras wants revenge more than anyone against Stannis. I don't see them forming an alliance any more than I see the Lannisters forming one with the Starks.

[Hippocras]

I don't think that Dragonstone being taken is false, just Loras' fate. Loras wants revenge more than anyone against Stannis. I don't see them forming an alliance any more than I see the Lannisters forming one with the Starks.

This I agree with which is another reason why I think there might be an alliance still active with LF. The Tyrells will take that fleet Aurane stole north to go after Stannis. This works with LF's plans for Sansa.

[HexMachina]

This I agree with which is another reason why I think there might be an alliance still active with LF. The Tyrells will take that fleet Aurane stole north to go after Stannis. This works with LF's plans for Sansa.

You think they will just abandon the Reach to the Ironborn?

[Hippocras]

You think they will just abandon the Reach to the Ironborn?

No I don't but the Redwyne fleet and most of the Tyrells forces under Garland were sent after Euron. Aurane's fleet has a different purpose if linked to Tyrells.

[HexMachina]

No I don't but the Redwyne fleet and most of the Tyrells forces under Garland were sent after Euron. Aurane's fleet has a different purpose if linked to Tyrells.

But in tWoW spoilers:

Aurane is in the Stepstones with his fleet, not heading North

[The Fresh PtwP]

The show runners know where the arcs are going, and when they make longer term moves that set things up seasons in advance that is something that is meaningful. So I disagree. Some things the show does are short term variations, but the long term set-ups are in fact evidence.

So because Natalie Dormer is beautiful and gets screen-time because of it (It's HBO c'mon) Margaery is a stronger and more important character...gotcha.

[Hippocras]

But in tWoW spoilers:

Aurane is in the Stepstones with his fleet, not heading North

As I said above, Aurane being currently in the Stepstones by rumour is irrelevant. He stole the Royal fleet. Anywhere he takes it now has to be ready to openly declare war on the Lannister rulers, which no one is ready for yet.

Aurane provided Loras's alibi if he is not injured. So the premise of this thread; that Loras is not injured badly, depends on Aurane's cooperation.

If Aurane is really just a pirate on the Stepstones, then Loras really is injured and near death. There is no other way to square it.

[The Crow's Third Eye]

As I said above, Aurane being currently in the Stepstones by rumour is irrelevant. He stole the Royal fleet. Anywhere he takes it now has to be ready to openly declare war on the Lannister rulers, which no one is ready for yet.

Aurane provided Loras's alibi if he is not injured. So the premise of this thread; that Loras is not injured badly, depends on Aurane's cooperation.

If Aurane is really just a pirate on the Stepstones, then Loras really is injured and near death. There is no other way to square it.

It doesn't need to though. Aurane didn't fight on Dragonstone, who is to say he even saw Loras? He could have heard the news from others on Dragonstone. If he tried to see Loras, the Maesters could have sent him away, saying Loras was too ill and close to death. Aurane does not need to be complicit in Loras/theTyrell's plans for Loras not to be seriously injured. IMO Aurane is an opportunist, who clung to Cersei whilst she offered him power, then fled with her fleet when she fell from power.