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R + L = J v 68


Stubby

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ETA: You win the award for best straw man signature. Congrats.

I just saw that and not only is it a straw man, it makes absolutely no sense. Jon wouldn't have been recognized by the Kingsguard as the king until he had already been born. He wasn't a "fetus king" because when he was a fetus, there was no reason to declare him king. (This is explained in my reply to Skagg.)

On top of that, it's also factually inaccurate, historically speaking. At least twice in history, in France and in Spain, the throne was vacant after a king died but the queen was pregnant. So yeah, in those instances, a fetus was the king.

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What about the possibility of Aerys having the metaphorical dragon dreams, a la Daeron the Drunkard?



Aerys has this idea that he will be reborn as a dragon when KL burns. And around the same time as the Sack of KL, Jon is born at the ToJ. Hmmm.



ETA: Could help to explain his troubled mind.


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What about the possibility of Aerys having the metaphorical dragon dreams, a la Daeron the Drunkard?

Aerys has this idea that he will be reborn as a dragon when KL burns. And around the same time as the Sack of KL, Jon is born at the ToJ. Hmmm.

ETA: Could help to explain his troubled mind.

That's actually ... very interesting. The excerpt from D&E shows that Daeron was at least slightly nervous that he might be the dragon in the dream (as J. Stargaryen points out, it's also evidence that even the Targs dreaming the dreams could know not to take them literally). A nutcase like Aerys, seemingly obsessed with power, blood purity and dragon imagery, could in theory have seen a dragon hatching out of the city's destruction, which he took to mean himself hatching as a literal dragon when he took wildfire to it, and instead the dragon that hatched out of the city's destruction (the Sack, not wildfire) was actually Jon. And of course, "Two kings to wake the dragon" -> Aerys and Aegon, and then Jon.

That might be worth its own thread, seriously. He had to get the idea from somewhere.

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It's not impossible, but I don't think Jon would want to abandon the name Eddard gave him and he grew up with. Targaryens don't always have to have Valyrian names anyway. If Duncan hadn't given up his claim to the throne, he would have eventually become King Duncan I Targaryen. Of course, if Jon was born a few days before Lyanna died, as speculated above, he may already have another name.

I forget the exact wording, but did Martin say that Ned named Jon, or that Ned gave him his name?

There is a subtlety.

The first implies that Ned named him as a "fathers" prerogative, the second way implies that Jon already had a name, but Ned changed it.

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I forget the exact wording, but did Martin say that Ned named Jon, or that Ned gave him his name?

There is a subtlety.

The first implies that Ned named him as a "fathers" prerogative, the second way implies that Jon already had a name, but Ned changed it.

I think he said "Jon was named by Ned" which sent up a lot of red flags because of the wording.

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I would like to answer a question from the previous thread, where it was asked how long Lyanna was missing, and whether or not it was possible she had been missing for 2 years, since apparently, there are people on threads suggesting this.

Before I begin my story with lots and lots of numbers :) I'd like to cite my source: http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/84563-most-precise-asoiaf-timeline-in-existence/

The most precise ASOIAF time line in existence (according to the OP at least). The document provided there is huge and wonderful, truly. But, more importantly, I ignored the time line part, and looked at the distances and travel speed parts. I have actually taken my maps from the Lands of Ice and Fire to try and calculate whether or not the distances are representative to one another. And the answer is "Yes, they are."

So here I begin:

First, we sum up some facts:

(1) Lyanna was 16 when she died in 283 AC, so she was born in 267 AC. When she died the Rebellion had just ended.

(2) Robert's Rebellion had lasted close to a year.

(3) Brandon died in 282 AC, one of the events which sparked the beginning of Roberts Rebellion.

Concluding from (1), (2) and (3), there was about a year in between Lyanna's death and Brandon/Rickards deaths.

(4) Brandon was on his way from Winterfell to Riverrun when he heard about Lyanna's disappearance.

(5) Brandon died several days before he was to wed Catelyn (as said so by Ned).

(6) Brandon was 20 when he died.

(7) Brandon was also 20 when he fought a duel against Petyr Baelish, who was 15 at the time, when his marriage to Catelyn was made public. After this duel, Brandon left, and vowed to Catelyn they would marry upon his return.

(8) When Aegon was born, Rhaegar was present in KL, as the maesters spoke to him, and he met with Elia and baby Aegon to name the child and play on his harp.

(9) Rhaenys was 3 when she died in 283 AC, so she was born in 280 AC.

(10) Aegon was born in 282 AC, since he was about 1 year old when he died in 283 AC.

(11) Harrenhall happened in 281 AC.

(12) Elia was at Harrenhal with Rhaegar, Aerys etc. No pregnancy on her part has been mentioned.

(13) A pregnancy takes 9 months. Since the Martells are fond of mentioning the pregnancies in their families which took less than 9 months (like how Elia was born after only 8 months of pregnancy), and nothing such has been mentioned about Elia, we can assume Elia's pregnancy of Aegon lasted the full 9 months.

Since we don't know where Lyanna was when she disappeared (though it cannot have been Winterfell, since Rickard was there and he would have noticed before Brandon did if she was missing, and thus he would have acted before Brandon), I've put her location at the middle of Westeros, and the most central structure I could find was Harrenhal.

Taken from the time line document: Distances:

From King's Landing to Harrenhal (Rhaegar, Dayne and Whent): 380 miles

From Harrenhal to ToJ (Rhaegar, Dayne, Whent, Lyanna): 1030 miles

From Riverrun to King's Landing: 750 miles

From Brandon's location to King's Landing: 860 miles

A raven's distance from King's Landing to Winterfell: 1685 miles

From Winterfell to King's Landing: 2010 miles

A raven's distance from King's Landing to the Eyrie: 670 miles

For my calculations, I have assumed the following: the smaller parties would have travelled at a fast pace. The fastest pace in the document for small parties is 50 miles per day. This includes a rest day per 3 days of travel. The ravens, at fast pace, travel about 334 miles per day when they travel longer than 4 days, and 364 miles per day when they travel 2 to 4 days.

Here we go, try to keep up.

From King's Landing to Harrenhal (Rhaegar, Dayne and Whent): 380 miles -> 10 days

From Harrenhal to ToJ (Rhaegar, Dayne, Whent, Lyanna): 1030 miles -> 27,5 days

From Riverrun to King's Landing: 750 miles

From Brandon's location to King's Landing: 860 miles -> 23 days

A raven's distance from King's Landing to Winterfell: 1685 miles -> 5 days

From Winterfell to King's Landing: 2010 miles -> 53 days

A raven's distance from King's Landing to the Eyrie: 670 miles -> 2-3 days

Also, I assume that about 7 days after Lyanna disappeared, Brandon learned of it (the news had to travel to Riverrun, a rider would have had to find Brandon). And that is assuming Brandon learned from Riverrun, and not Winterfell, since he would have been closer to Riverrun than Winterfell.

So Aegon get's born. Rhaegar is still around for a little while. Let's give him a fortnight. Then he disappears.

10 days later, he arrives at Lyanna's position. They leave for ToJ. 7 days later (=17), Brandon learns of Lyanna's disappearance. He rides for KL in 23 days (=40). There, he is imprisoned. A raven is send to KL to summon Rickard, which takes 5 days (=45). Rickard summons his bannermen and starts south, which we shall give a fortnight (=59). Rickard arrives in KL 53 days later, assuming he went by horse. If he went by ship, his voyage would be 29 days. But, assuming he went by horse, so he could meet his bannermen on the road (=102). Rickard and Brandon die and a raven flies from KL to the Eyrie to Jon Arryn, which takes 2 to 3 days. Let's say it arrived on the third day (=105).

So from the moment Rhaegar had left until Jon Arryn calls his banners, 104 days have passed (roughly 3,5 months).

Robert's Rebellion begins. It lasts, to quote GRRM, close to a year. I gave Rhaegar a fortnight after Aegon's birth to disappear. Together with the 3.5 months we know now have passed between Rhaegar's disappearance the the beginning of RR, that's a 4 month old baby Aegon.

The quote, close to a year, made me feel the rebellion did not last a full year, but a little less. So, about 10 months, my guts tell me. That would make Aegon 14 months old, so, about 1 year old, as Tywin had put it.

Now on to Lyanna. She disappeared about a month after Aegon's birth (fortnight + ten days = 24 days, so a little over 3 weeks). Which would set her having been gone until the moment of the Sack 13,25 months.

From KL to Storm's End is 480 miles, which comes down to 12.5 days of travel. From Storm's End to ToJ is 645 miles, which comes down to 17 days of travel. 13,25 months + 12,5 days + 17 days = 14,25 months. That would put Ned finding her at roughly 14 months after her disappearance. That is excluding the few days Ned would have taken to actually lift the siege at Storm's End.

So, to answer the questions: Yes, Lyanna's disappearance could have been around 15 months, though it will most likely be closer to 14 months. No, two full pregnancies would not be possible, even if both pregnancies ended premature (at, for example 8 months, which would be dangerous for both children). Also, a woman's body needs time to recover from a pregnancy and a birth, so there would have to be a few weeks/two months between birth #1 and conception #2. So no, no two pregnancies.

A miscarriage would add nothing to the story.

No, Lyanna cannot have been gone for 2 years. That would mean Rhaegar missed the conception and birth of his son, and we know he was present at both :P

I hope you all enjoyed my calculations. I truly hope I didn't make a counting mistake :)

Edit: as to why I would write all this, in addition to answer the questions: I totally love details, and this makes everything more complete in my eyes :)

Fabulous deduction, and thanks for taking the time to do it. :)

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Rhaegar loved Lyanna. That is given in the story. Why do you insist that he was only after an ice woman to impregnate?

Hmmm… Was that a joke??? If not, then I think I missed that part of the story…

I thought that he met her once, crowned her Queen of Love & Beauty, then kidnapped her a few months later… I can't imagine how love factors into this...

Rheagar was driven by a prophecy, not love, had he loved her he might have gone to the trouble to bring a Maester along.

Not to mention the fact that he was already married to another woman… I don't even know if love is a possibility.

Furthermore Barristan Selmy is far from a reliable narrator, especially on the subject of love.

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I asked his in another thread but I figured I would ask all of you omniscients....

A Song of Ice and Fire is already Aegon's Song. Rhaegar tells us so in the HoTU vision. GRRM has confirmed it as Aegon, Elia and Rhaegar in the vision.

If Rhaegar took off to abduct Lyanna to fulfill some sort of magical blood pregnancy, why did he give Aegon the Song of Ice and Fire? Lyanna's baby hadn't even been conceived yet. If he thought there was something foretold about an "ice and fire" union with Lyanna... why did he say Aegon already had the song?

For what it's worth, we don't even know whether the vision of Rhaegar and his family was something that actually happened in the past:

"Within, you will see many things that disturb you. Visions of loveliness and visions of horror, wonders and terrors. Sights and sounds of days gone by and days to come and days that never were."

That's Pyat Pree to Dany (towards the beginning of the HotU chapter).

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For what it's worth, we don't even know whether the vision of Rhaegar and his family was something that actually happened in the past:

That's Pyat Pree to Dany (towards the beginning of the HotU chapter).

We do know that after the birth, the maesters told Rhaegar Elia could not have anymore children. Which does place him in KL until after the birth :)

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Jon is the son of two prodigies when riding skills are concerned. Yet he does not show any such exceptional talents so far. Of course training is a must but Rhaegar and Lyanna were on the level where no amount of training could get you there.



Did Ned try to keep Jon's riding at a standard level so that he does not raise suspicions? I mean if Jon had pulled a centaur from himself, that would surely raise some questions about his mother.


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But the conversation is still suspect, no?

You mean the conversation Dany sees Rhaegar and Elia having in HotU? Then yes, the conversation might not have taken place. But it also could have. We just can't be sure.

But Rhaegar talking to the maesters after Aegon's birth does show he was still at KL after the birth (though how long after, I couldn't say). Aegon, as per GRRM's description, is twelve months old, give or take the turn of a moon or two (so minimal 12 months, maximal 14 months). Which means Rhaegar cannot have left KL to take Lyanna and bring her to ToJ more than 14 months before Ned finds her. And 14 months is too little time to have been pregnant twice for nine months. Or to have been pregnant twice for 8 months (the children would have a survival rate still in such a case). Since I myself am a child born 9 weeks too early, I can tell you, without a hospital, I would not be the healthy person I am today, so two pregnancies of 7 months are also out of the question. Not to forget Lyanna's body would need some recovering time in between the two pregnancies.

But that was the point about the conversation and Aegon's precise age. :)

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I believe that r+l= Jon snow but he has a twin .alfie Allen's Star Wars comment has been bothering me.im thinking aegon will turn out to be his twin.lemore is ashara she took aegon an Ned took Jon.if this is the case I would be happy.does anyone else think this is possible.

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I believe that r+l= Jon snow but he has a twin .alfie Allen's Star Wars comment has been bothering me.im thinking aegon will turn out to be his twin.lemore is ashara she took aegon an Ned took Jon.if this is the case I would be happy.does anyone else think this is possible.

No.

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Hmmm… Was that a joke??? If not, then I think I missed that part of the story…

I thought that he met her once, crowned her Queen of Love & Beauty, then kidnapped her a few months later… I can't imagine how love factors into this...

Rheagar was driven by a prophecy, not love, had he loved her he might have gone to the trouble to bring a Maester along.

Not to mention the fact that he was already married to another woman… I don't even know if love is a possibility.

Furthermore Barristan Selmy is far from a reliable narrator, especially on the subject of love.

The staff of ToJ is a big unknown, so this li¨ne of reasoning is invalid. It's not like a Maester can automatically prevent infection by his very presence, we see the contrary in the books.

Being married doesn't prevent anyone from falling in love with another person and vice versa.

Rhaegar dying for the woman he loved is a motive introduced as early as first Dany PoV in AGOT, without Barristan.

Jon is the son of two prodigies when riding skills are concerned. Yet he does not show any such exceptional talents so far. Of course training is a must but Rhaegar and Lyanna were on the level where no amount of training could get you there.

Did Ned try to keep Jon's riding at a standard level so that he does not raise suspicions? I mean if Jon had pulled a centaur from himself, that would surely raise some questions about his mother.

Actually, I don't recall a single mention of Jon receiving any training in horse riding or jousting, or even taking much rides. Sure, he could ride a horse as means of transport, but there seems to be an impression that his time was rather organised and he didn't indulge in riding merely for fun. It may be just me, though.

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