Arianne questions

[Rysler]

So I re-read Arianne in aFfC and Areo in aDwD a while back and was left with some questions...

1) Who informed Doran on Arianne's plan? I get the feeling her friends wouldn't betray her, so was it Darkstar?

2) Was Arianne just playing Ser Arys as she tried to play Ser Balon later? Or did she have genuine feelings for him?

3) In a conversation with Darkstar, Arianne mentions "The lion is dead. And who know which cub the lioness will support?" (not actual quote). But a few pages later Ser Arys comes riding in to tell Arianne that Tywin is dead, shocking her. So... who was she talking about?

4) Was Arianne in cahoots with Red Viper, or was it coincidental that they had the same plan to crown Myrcella?

What do you guys think?

[The guy from the Vale]

1) My guess would be Arys Oakheart.

2) She was using Arys to get her hands on Myrcella.

3) Joffrey perhaps?

4) Arianne had her own plans.

Just my... eh, 4 cents.

[The Holy Goat]

So I re-read Arianne in aFfC and Areo in aDwD a while back and was left with some questions...

1) Who informed Doran on Arianne's plan? I get the feeling her friends wouldn't betray her, so was it Darkstar?

2) Was Arianne just playing Ser Arys as she tried to play Ser Balon later? Or did she have genuine feelings for him?

3) In a conversation with Darkstar, Arianne mentions "The lion is dead. And who know which cub the lioness will support?" (not actual quote). But a few pages later Ser Arys comes riding in to tell Arianne that Tywin is dead, shocking her. So... who was she talking about?

4) Was Arianne in cahoots with Red Viper, or was it coincidental that they had the same plan to crown Myrcella?

What do you guys think?

1, Could be anyone. Doesn't have to be one of her companions either, but some random more distant associate.

2, She seem to have been genuinely fond of Arys, but she didn't love him nearly as much as he loved her, and manipulated him into giving her Myrcella.

3, Aye, if it's ain't Tywin, it's gotta be Joffrey.

4,Arianne seem to have worked on her own. The Red Viper worked far more closely with Doran than anyone else.

And that's my two cents.

[Queen Alienor]

So I re-read Arianne in aFfC and Areo in aDwD a while back and was left with some questions...

1) Who informed Doran on Arianne's plan? I get the feeling her friends wouldn't betray her, so was it Darkstar?

2) Was Arianne just playing Ser Arys as she tried to play Ser Balon later? Or did she have genuine feelings for him?

3) In a conversation with Darkstar, Arianne mentions "The lion is dead. And who know which cub the lioness will support?" (not actual quote). But a few pages later Ser Arys comes riding in to tell Arianne that Tywin is dead, shocking her. So... who was she talking about?

4) Was Arianne in cahoots with Red Viper, or was it coincidental that they had the same plan to crown Myrcella?

What do you guys think?

1) Arys seems the most likely candidate

2) While I'm sure she originally just wanted Myrcella, she seems to have developed a genuine fondness of him. No love though.

3) Joffrey. He's more or less the only candidate, since it's clear that Cersei favors him over his siblings, so there would be no question which of her children Cersei would support if Joffrey still lived.

4) I think the Viper was Doran closest ally, he would have talked Arianne out of it.

[Shadrich]

So I re-read Arianne in aFfC and Areo in aDwD a while back and was left with some questions...

1) Who informed Doran on Arianne's plan? I get the feeling her friends wouldn't betray her, so was it Darkstar?

2) Was Arianne just playing Ser Arys as she tried to play Ser Balon later? Or did she have genuine feelings for him?

3) In a conversation with Darkstar, Arianne mentions "The lion is dead. And who know which cub the lioness will support?" (not actual quote). But a few pages later Ser Arys comes riding in to tell Arianne that Tywin is dead, shocking her. So... who was she talking about?

4) Was Arianne in cahoots with Red Viper, or was it coincidental that they had the same plan to crown Myrcella?

What do you guys think?

1. Darkstar, I think. He's been working with Doran from the beginning.

2. She was fond of him, as other posters said - but i don't think she loved him. She just needed Myrcella.

3. Joff

4. Oberyn was working with Doran, while Arianne worked on her own.

[Mithras]

“It is said that a Lannister always pays his debts. Perhaps you will return to Sunspear with me when the day’s bloodletting is done. My brother Doran would be most pleased to meet the rightful heir to Casterly Rock... especially if he brought his lovely wife, the Lady of Winterfell.”

Does the snake think I have Sansa squirreled away somewhere, like a nut I’m hoarding for winter? If so, Tyrion was not about to disabuse him. “A trip to Dorne might be very pleasant, now that I reflect on it.”

“Plan on a lengthy visit.” Prince Oberyn sipped his wine. “You and Doran have many matters of mutual interest to discuss. Music, trade, history, wine, the dwarf’s penny... the laws of inheritance and succession. No doubt an uncle’s counsel would be of benefit to Queen Myrcella in the trying times ahead.”

If Varys had his little birds listening, Oberyn was giving them a ripe earful. “I believe I will have that cup of wine,” said Tyrion. Queen Myrcella? It would have been more tempting if only he did have Sansa tucked beneath his cloak. If she declared for Myrcella over Tommen, would the north follow? What the Red Viper was hinting at was treason. Could Tyrion truly take up arms against Tommen, against his own father? Cersei would spit blood. It might be worth it for that alone.

It was Doran’s plan to crown Myrcella. According to him, Oberyn would slay the mountain and poison Tywin with a modified widow’s blood and their revenge would be almost completed. Next he would have the control of the heirs to Casterly Rock and Winterfell. Sansa would also bring the Riverlands and the Vale to his cause too. He could have most of the things he wanted if only Oberyn acted more patiently. After the death of Red Viper, the superheated Dorne must be cooled without much harm is done and at the same time, Dorne should restate her fealty to the IT. That is why, Doran let Arianne do her adventure and made sure that all the people accompanying her were his agents. That was true except Darkstar, who proved to be a wildcard, a mistake of Doran.

“Have you caught Ser Gerold?”

He shook his head. “Would that we had. You were a fool to make him part of this. Darkstar is the most dangerous man in Dorne. You and he have done us all great harm.”

“Tell me how you knew my plans.”

“I am the Prince of Dorne. Men seek my favor.”

Someone told. “You knew, and yet you still allowed us to make off with Myrcella. Why?”

“That was my mistake, and it has proved a grievous one. You are my daughter, Arianne. The little girl who used to run to me when she skinned her knee. I found it hard to believe that you would conspire against me. I had to learn the truth.”

“What they did they did for love for me. They do not deserve to die on Ghaston Grey.”

“As it happens, I agree. Aside from Darkstar, your fellow plotters were no more than foolish children. Still, this was no harmless game of cyvasse. You and your friends were playing at treason. I might have had their heads off.”

“You might have, but you didn’t. Dayne, Dalt, Santagar... no, you would never dare make enemies of such Houses.”

“I dare more than you dream... but leave that for the nonce. Ser Andrey has been sent to Norvos to serve your lady mother for three years. Garin will spend his next two years in Tyrosh. From his kin amongst the orphans, I took coin and hostages. Lady Sylva received no punishment from me, but she was of an age to marry. Her father has shipped her to Greenstone to wed Lord Estermont.”

Now the “punishments” of the conspirators of Arianne seem a bit odd to me. Doran is a subtle man and he is known to use superficial things to hide his true agenda. Doran seemed like punishing Arianne and the sandsnakes when he had them captured. Now he seems like he is punishing the conspirators too by sending one to Norvos, another to Tyrosh, and marrying the other to a Storm Lord of importance. As far as I recall, marriage arrangements are done to seal an alliance. I bet he sent important messages to Norvos and Tyrosh too.

Lord Estermont is the uncle of Robert and Stannis. His son smuggled Edric Storm across the sea. If they somehow have Edric legitimized, he would be the Lord of Storm’s End. Such child lords are highly appreciated by masterminds because they are easily manipulated. Now that Stannis seems to be a lost cause, Eldon Estermont should have shaken hands with Doran to make Edric a Baratheon and appoint Eldon as his regent. Those conspirators sent by Doran across the sea may have a stop at Lys to give the news to Eldon’s son to return him to Dorne.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

So I re-read Arianne in aFfC and Areo in aDwD a while back and was left with some questions...

1) Who informed Doran on Arianne's plan? I get the feeling her friends wouldn't betray her, so was it Darkstar?

2) Was Arianne just playing Ser Arys as she tried to play Ser Balon later? Or did she have genuine feelings for him?

3) In a conversation with Darkstar, Arianne mentions "The lion is dead. And who know which cub the lioness will support?" (not actual quote). But a few pages later Ser Arys comes riding in to tell Arianne that Tywin is dead, shocking her. So... who was she talking about?

4) Was Arianne in cahoots with Red Viper, or was it coincidental that they had the same plan to crown Myrcella?

What do you guys think?

1) This is not yet known. It could be that is was Sylva, as Arianne will come into contact with her most like again (since Sylva and her husband have been taken hostage by Aegon's forces). It could also have been Ser Arys, who, to not face the guilt of betraying Arianne on top of the guilt he faced about not sticking to his vows in the first place, charged into Hotah axe and practically commited suicide. But really, the real person hasn't been pointed out yet. Non of Arianne's friends received a punishment too terrible, imho, and so any one of them could be the one.

2) Arianne was playing Ser Arys in the beginning, yes. She wanted him on her side, and thus she seduced him. But in the sample chapter of WoW,

she realises she misses him more than she had expected originally, which surprises her. To me, this shows that she had at least become fond of him,

though in no way did she feel as strongly about him as he did about her.

3) It's Joffrey

4) Could be Arianne overheard him speak once or twice. I doubt Oberyn was ever one to keep his mouth shut. But Oberyn worked closely together with Doran, and he would not act in a way that would disturb his brothers planning (unless, of course, to get revenge on the mountain). I think Oberyn's words about such a plan to Tyrion were more to work Tyrion up, to Ensure that Tyrion would try en get himself to Dorne, where, once in Doran's hands, they would hold leverage over the Lannisters a little.

It was Doran’s plan to crown Myrcella. According to him, Oberyn would slay the mountain and poison Tywin with a modified widow’s blood and their revenge would be almost completed. Next he would have the control of the heirs to Casterly Rock and Winterfell. Sansa would also bring the Riverlands and the Vale to his cause too. He could have most of the things he wanted if only Oberyn acted more patiently. After the death of Red Viper, the superheated Dorne must be cooled without much harm is done and at the same time, Dorne should restate her fealty to the IT. That is why, Doran let Arianne do her adventure and made sure that all the people accompanying her were his agents. That was true except Darkstar, who proved to be a wildcard, a mistake of Doran.

I doubts that Darkstar was working for Doran and Oberyn. Doran never said that Oberyn would kill the mountain. That was something Oberyn decided to do on his own. The Mountain wasn't even supposed to be in KL, and was only summoned until after Joff's wedding. Doran could not have foreseen such. And Oberyn poisoning Tywin is a theory, which is based on the fact that Tywin was on the toilet the moment Tyrion walked in. Newsflash: people use toilets, even when they're not poisoned.

The people of Dorne would not cool off if Arianne got to play her plot until her arrest. Her capture would have inflammed the people even more, since she was well loved.

Oberyn named Darkstar poison, in the sample chapter of WoW. So he would have been the least likely candidate for working together with Doran and Oberyn.

Now the “punishments” of the conspirators of Arianne seem a bit odd to me. Doran is a subtle man and he is known to use superficial things to hide his true agenda. Doran seemed like punishing Arianne and the sandsnakes when he had them captured. Now he seems like he is punishing the conspirators too by sending one to Norvos, another to Tyrosh, and marrying the other to a Storm Lord of importance. As far as I recall, marriage arrangements are done to seal an alliance. I bet he sent important messages to Norvos and Tyrosh too.

Lord Estermont is the uncle of Robert and Stannis. His son smuggled Edric Storm across the sea. If they somehow have Edric legitimized, he would be the Lord of Storm’s End. Such child lords are highly appreciated by masterminds because they are easily manipulated. Now that Stannis seems to be a lost cause, Eldon Estermont should have shaken hands with Doran to make Edric a Baratheon and appoint Eldon as his regent. Those conspirators sent by Doran across the sea may have a stop at Lys to give the news to Eldon’s son to return him to Dorne.

The punishments Arianne's friends receive do seem a bit strange, and, as I mentioned, not as severe as you'd expect. The idea of the two boys being send to Norvos and Tyrosh to deliver messages (Doran would at least have friends at Tyrosh, where his wife is from) and gather strength, is very intriguing, The only problem with it is the fact that they've both been send away for multiple years, though of course, once they return in the middle of a war with their strength at their backs, it won't matter too much.

Although I doubt Eldon Estermont is in on the plan (he's from the Stormlands, and those people don't really care for the Dornish), and I figured Sylva was married to the guy only because he's so ancient: he's most like to die within a few years. Should anything befall the Estermont heirs by then, Sylva could even stand a chance to inherit, though that most likely isn't part of the plans. But marrying Sylva to a house that has sworn fealthy to IT, and having it done so by the Prince of Dorne himself, could give the rulers in KL a fake sense of safety, for Doran marries a close friend of his own daughter to someone loyal from the Stormlands. I think Sylva's marriage was done by Doran just to create a false sense of safety for those in KL.

The Sandsnakes were captured because they were inflamming the people of Dorne too much, and Doran's grip without Oberyn present wasn't all that strong to begin with. Now, with the Sandsnakes listening to Doran and working for him, Doran can actually get active. Tyene in KL with Nym, and Obara with Hotah trying to kill Darkstar. Tyene might end up with Cersei even, as a septa, and as long as no one in KL notices that Tyene is a daughter of Oberyn's, that's only in Doran's advantage.

[Mithras]

I might have stated it wrongly but I was actually trying to suggest that Darkstar was the only person who was not working for Doran among Arianne's party. Doran and Oberyn passed over every detail in my opinion. Surely the assassination, the trial and the duel was unexpected but I think a fight with a mountain was definitely expected.

Oberyn nagged Tyrion's head, demanding justice for quite a time. Sooner or later they will have to summon Gregor and accuse him on the murders of Elia and her children. Mountain looks like a person who would prefer trial by combat in such cases. So Oberyn vs Gregor was involved in the plans.

Oberyn poisoning Tywin is not based on toilet only. There are numerous strong proofs imlying that and the subtlety that Tywin being posinoed with Widow's blood (Elia as the widow) is very neat and give them a time to leave KL because that poison takes a while to kill. Also we know that Red Viper can magically modfify posions, so that he symbolically showed what a rotten man was Tywin in his funeral. He will always be remembered with that stink.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

I might have stated it wrongly but I was actually trying to suggest that Darkstar was the only person who was not working for Doran among Arianne's party. Doran and Oberyn passed over every detail in my opinion. Surely the assassination, the trial and the duel was unexpected but I think a fight with a mountain was definitely expected.

Ah, ok, my bad.

Don't forget that Tywin Lannister was still involved, and there was no way they could have known Tyrion would disappear from of the picture. Tywin would never have allowed Gregor to come to KL as long as a Martell was still present. He was only content giving them Gregor's head after Gregor was terribly wounded, and even then he wanted it to be shown as an executing, and not as death by poison.

Oberyn nagged Tyrion's head, demanding justice for quite a time. Sooner or later they will have to summon Gregor and accuse him on the murders of Elia and her children. Mountain looks like a person who would prefer trial by combat in such cases. So Oberyn vs Gregor was involved in the plans.

Again, there was no way Tywin would have summoned Gregor to KL for as long as a Martell was present, unless he was forced to. Sure, why wouldn't the Mountain prefer a trial by combat in case of a trial? There's no sane man who would go against him.

Oberyn poisoning Tywin is not based on toilet only. There are numerous strong proofs imlying that and the subtlety that Tywin being posinoed with Widow's blood (Elia as the widow) is very neat and give them a time to leave KL because that poison takes a while to kill. Also we know that Red Viper can magically modfify posions, so that he symbolically showed what a rotten man was Tywin in his funeral. He will always be remembered with that stink.

Do you perhaps have a link to a thread about this then? Because I don't see any other proof for such a theory, imho. Dead men rot. That's a fact :)

[Spear of Dorne]

I think people can underestimate the contact between Doran and Oberyn. As I read it though having wildly different personalities they are very close and have been working on their plan together for quite some time. Bear in mind if Oberyn killed the Mountain and survived he would probably have secured a confession from Clegane in front of the court and the assumption being that he was trying to get him to confess that Tywin had orchestrated the murders. Had he managed that I get a feeling that Doran's plan would have changed to crowning Myrcella. After all, the marriage contract with the Targs was only really for Viserys, I think Doran sends Quentyn to Dany as his Plan C.

[protar]

So I re-read Arianne in aFfC and Areo in aDwD a while back and was left with some questions...

1) Who informed Doran on Arianne's plan? I get the feeling her friends wouldn't betray her, so was it Darkstar?

2) Was Arianne just playing Ser Arys as she tried to play Ser Balon later? Or did she have genuine feelings for him?

3) In a conversation with Darkstar, Arianne mentions "The lion is dead. And who know which cub the lioness will support?" (not actual quote). But a few pages later Ser Arys comes riding in to tell Arianne that Tywin is dead, shocking her. So... who was she talking about?

4) Was Arianne in cahoots with Red Viper, or was it coincidental that they had the same plan to crown Myrcella?

What do you guys think?

1.) I would guess Darkstar. He wanted war and realised Arianne's kind of pitiful plan wouldn't cut it, so he went out to stir up more chaos.

2.) She liked Arys but didn't love him. Primarily she was manipulating him.

3.) Probably Joff?

4.) I don't think so. It's a pretty natural plan for both to think up independently given Dornish laws of inheritance.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

I think people can underestimate the contact between Doran and Oberyn. As I read it though having wildly different personalities they are very close and have been working on their plan together for quite some time. Bear in mind if Oberyn killed the Mountain and survived he would probably have secured a confession from Clegane in front of the court and the assumption being that he was trying to get him to confess that Tywin had orchestrated the murders. Had he managed that I get a feeling that Doran's plan would have changed to crowning Myrcella. After all, the marriage contract with the Targs was only really for Viserys, I think Doran sends Quentyn to Dany as his Plan C.

Quentyn had departed drom Dorne before the whole crowning Myrcella thing happens

[Mithras]

Don't forget that Tywin Lannister was still involved, and there was no way they could have known Tyrion would disappear from of the picture. Tywin would never have allowed Gregor to come to KL as long as a Martell was still present. He was only content giving them Gregor's head after Gregor was terribly wounded, and even then he wanted it to be shown as an executing, and not as death by poison.

Again, there was no way Tywin would have summoned Gregor to KL for as long as a Martell was present, unless he was forced to. Sure, why wouldn't the Mountain prefer a trial by combat in case of a trial? There's no sane man who would go against him.

You are forgetting Myrcella was a hostage held by Doran and Tyrion already promised justice to Doran. Even Tywin admitted it was too much but necessary. A Lannister always pays his debts and we already saw how Tywin reacted to abduction of even Tyrion. I think these two are enough to show that Tywin would give Doran what he wanted, and that was Gregor's head. Gregor had its use but Tywin was thinking the fight is mostly over. I think Oberyn would accuse Gregor of murder at the first opportunity.

Do you perhaps have a link to a thread about this then? Because I don't see any other proof for such a theory, imho. Dead men rot. That's a fact :)

There is a locked thread here. I am planning to reopen it with some new aspects. I think situation is very clear. Oberyn had the chance, had the motivation and as explained in the thread, there are extraordinary details about the rot of Tywin's corpse. The silent sisters did what was necessary but the result was a horror.

[Veltigar]

So I re-read Arianne in aFfC and Areo in aDwD a while back and was left with some questions...

1) Who informed Doran on Arianne's plan? I get the feeling her friends wouldn't betray her, so was it Darkstar?

I too think that it was Darkstar

2) Was Arianne just playing Ser Arys as she tried to play Ser Balon later? Or did she have genuine feelings for him?

just playin'

3) In a conversation with Darkstar, Arianne mentions "The lion is dead. And who know which cub the lioness will support?" (not actual quote). But a few pages later Ser Arys comes riding in to tell Arianne that Tywin is dead, shocking her. So... who was she talking about?

joffrey

4) Was Arianne in cahoots with Red Viper, or was it coincidental that they had the same plan to crown Myrcella?

What do you guys think?

coincidental

[TalalOfDorne]

1) My guess its either Arys or Drey.

2) Either she had feelings for him, or she it might just have been a reaction to how wrong and bloody her plan went.

3) I understood it was Joffrey.

4) I think anyone could have thought of it, so they were not necessarily working together.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

You are forgetting Myrcella was a hostage held by Doran and Tyrion already promised justice to Doran. Even Tywin admitted it was too much but necessary. A Lannister always pays his debts and we already saw how Tywin reacted to abduction of even Tyrion. I think these two are enough to show that Tywin would give Doran what he wanted, and that was Gregor's head. Gregor had its use but Tywin was thinking the fight is mostly over. I think Oberyn would accuse Gregor of murder at the first opportunity.

Tywin told Tyrion he was going to tell Doran it had been Lorch with both children and Elia. Remember that the involvements of Lorch and Gregor were simply rumours - though thoroughly repeated rumours, and the Martells were certain they were true.

Tywin was going to present Doran with the explanation that Lorch had killed Aegon, Rhaenys and Elia (instead of just Rhaenys), which would come along nicely, since Lorch was already dead at that point.

Tywin wanted to hold on to Gregor for as long as there was a war going on. And the war wasn't over yet.