A black crow and a pink letter

[Stan the Man Baratheon]

Is it clear that the author of the letter knows that the sword is fake? Or is he simply using flippant language to refer to Stannis's sword?

Got my facts mixed up, it says Magic sword.

Sorry.

[Mourneblade]

What would there be to gain from sending this letter? By Mance i mean. Maybe if Stannis sent it, it would be to prove Jon's allegiance? However, I spose if The Mance was in on a lil' conspiracy, more than likely got from some nice pillow talk from the "chosen girls" he would want the NW to come storming in and WF could be taken from in, and out by 2 sides? Sounds like a fairly bad-ass plan to me, with a high probability of success.

Neither Stannis or Ramsey sent this letter. I cannot rule out Mance, a lot of solid theory's here, but plenty of unknowns especially Motive... I keep thinking about why Mance would write it. What does he gain from it. If he is such a clever person, as forging this letter would suggest, then how does it benefit him, without getting him killed lol.

[Jô Maltese]

arah.jenice, on 18 Jan 2014 - 9:39 PM, said:

I've never quite subscribed to the ____ other than Ramsay is the author of the pink letter theories. I just don't think all of the facts in the letter are correct, but I think Ramsay is the author.

As for the use of "wildling phrases," I think this could be explained with the fact that it probably isn't a secret that the wildlings refer to the Night's Watch as black crows. Plenty of them are captured south of the wall - see Osha - and might say it in front of the captors who would be northerners. It could easily be known they say that. What if Ramsay really did capture the spearwives, and when he was torturing them they said something about the "black crows" on the Wall and Ramsay liked the insult. It's not a stretch to think he would have heard/know the phrase before and since most of the letter uses languages aimed at insulting Jon, he used it.

One counter-argument is that there are strong indicators in the series that neither Mance or the Spearwives would crack under torture. Remember Qorin speeches about the wildlings or Ygritte's attitude when captured by Jon for instance.

[Mourneblade]

arah.jenice, on 18 Jan 2014 - 9:39 PM, said:

As for the use of "wildling phrases," I think this could be explained with the fact that it probably isn't a secret that the wildlings refer to the Night's Watch as black crows. Plenty of them are captured south of the wall - see Osha - and might say it in front of the captors who would be northerners. It could easily be known they say that. What if Ramsay really did capture the spearwives, and when he was torturing them they said something about the "black crows" on the Wall and Ramsay liked the insult. It's not a stretch to think he would have heard/know the phrase before and since most of the letter uses languages aimed at insulting Jon, he used it.

One counter-argument is that there are strong indicators in the series that neither Mance or the Spearwives would crack under torture. Remember Qorin speeches about the wildlings or Ygritte's attitude when captured by Jon for instance.

This is where I can still keep Roose Bolton as my number one suspect as the author, and Mance a close second. Roose has the tools at his disposal, and the Motive.

Qorin never tried "Flaying" the wildlings.

[Jô Maltese]

Oh, I wasn't the first one to point this out.

Last year, another user (sorry, I didn't remember his name) actually went throught the books and confirmed that "black crow" is never used by southerners.

The only thing I did differently was actually posting the quotes themselves. It's just much more convincing that way, if you see it before your own eyes.

Also, the reason why I made this thread is, that I find the "black crow" thing super convincing, but the argument is not as widely known as it should be. I usually post it in every pink letter thread ( :)), but one page later the next guy says "well there's no evidence that it was Mance, it's just wishful thinking"

Rooseman (and Yolkboy),

Just to clarify, my post's intent was actually to support the OP by saying that many other members of this Forum had drawn a similar conclusion through a similar 'vocabulary / style' analysis of the Pink Letter and therefore that Rooseman was probably right. My intent was NOT to dismiss the OP as "yeah, nothing new here", but I realise my wording was somewhat ambivalent. I apologise if I hurt your feelings. :frown5:

[VicsFieryHand]

Neither Stannis or Ramsey sent this letter. I cannot rule out Mance, a lot of solid theory's here, but plenty of unknowns especially Motive... I keep thinking about why Mance would write it. What does he gain from it. If he is such a clever person, as forging this letter would suggest, then how does it benefit him, without getting him killed lol.

Mance knows alot of ancient history, He also belongs to the old gods. Even the Wildlings have some respect for the Stark line. Perhaps they want a Stark in WF, moreover, MANCE wants WF not to be in the hands of Boltons, and the North to unite so they can fight the ENEMY. Stannis will accomplish this with a win, and I am sure Mance knows if the North is at war when the dead come walking, they're all fucked.....

[Rooseman]

What would there be to gain from sending this letter? By Mance i mean. Maybe if Stannis sent it, it would be to prove Jon's allegiance? However, I spose if The Mance was in on a lil' conspiracy, more than likely got from some nice pillow talk from the "chosen girls" he would want the NW to come storming in and WF could be taken from in, and out by 2 sides? Sounds like a fairly bad-ass plan to me, with a high probability of success.

People often dismiss Mance as the author, because they can't think of a motive. Well, right now there's a lot we don't know about Mance's intentions. Look at this passage:

The wildling turned to Melisandre. “I will need horses. Half a dozen good ones. And this is nothing I can do alone. Some of the spearwives penned up at Mole’s Town should serve. Women would be best for this. The girl’s more like to trust them, and they will help me carry off a certain ploy I have in mind.”

What is this "certain ploy" he's talking about? Some people think, that he's just talking about posing as Abel the singer with his six washerwomen, in order to gain entrance to Winterfell.

But that doesn't make sense, because at that point in time, they're still assuming that "Arya" is already on her way to the Wall. Mance was sent to pick her up. There was no reason to assume, that he would need to get into the castle.

So Mance definitely has something up his sleeve, something we don't know about yet. We don't know what it is or why he wants to do it, but we know it's there.

Because of that, I wouldn't be too quick to dismiss Mance as the author because of a "missing motive."

I already proposed, that attacking the Boltons and Freys from within while Stannis attacked from outside could have been part of the plan. But when "news" of Stannis' death reached the castle, they had to switch to an alternative. And tricking Jon into marching on Winterfell seems like a good plan B to me.

[Jon Weirgaryen]

There's one exclusively wildling lingo word in the letter.
Since it was written in writing, the writer must have known how to write.

So either a wildling wrote it, or made someone write it.

Mance is one wildling in Winterfell, and so are his washerwomen.

Also a Night's Watch ranger might know some wildling lingo, if there was one to write the letter. I think in that case it could not have been a crown on the wall, but one who was in the know of more or less recent events in Winterfell.

[Rooseman]

Also a Night's Watch ranger might know some wildling lingo

Possibly, but the use of "black crow" seems like a slip, not like something that was put in intentionally. Apart from that, nothing hints to the fact that the author wants Jon to think, that it wasn't Ramsay who wrote the letter. The thought that it's odd to find that phrase there doesn't even cross Jon's mind.

[Mithras]

The letter is way too personal and looks like somebody who has a good knowledge of Jon and the stiuation at the Wall wrote it. I believe Stannis wrote the letter and Thorne edited it on the Wall. He can use the term black crow as well.

[Rooseman]

I do not like this "the letter was edited" theory. At all.

How do you edit a letter? Did he erase some parts? How? And why? Did he want to make Jon more angry? The letter starts out and continues to be super aggressive. What did he put in that wasn't there before? Why even take the chance, and not just write a new letter? Jon didn't notice a change of handwriting etc.

It just makes no sense whatsoever to me. The only hint that might point to some tempering is the fact, that the letter was sealed with a smear of pink wax. That could be explained by taking the seal off and melting it on again. Or that the original writer just didn't have access to a Bolton seal.

As to Stannis as the author: As much as I mislike that theory for various reasons, you can argue that he could have the proper motivation to do something like this. But in this thread, I'd like to focus on textual evidence. Like the stuff I mentioned in my OP. And there's little enaugh of that pointing towards Stannis.

[Jon Weirgaryen]

The thought that it's odd to find that phrase there doesn't even cross Jon's mind.

But then it wouldn't. Jon is not quite his usual self at the time he reads the letter. When I read it the first and second and third time, it slipped my attentnion. And other than Jon Snow I was in a place of calm and reflection and in detective mode the third time round.

(Jon Snow certainly wasn't, he was about to juggle a great rescue ranging to hardhome, now a possible personal mission to Winterfell and maybe some more like the Queen's diplomacy.)

[Fallenangel]

People say Ramsay put all those things in to sound like Mance. Why would he want to do that? Also, as someone said, Ramsay would NEVER call Jon a bastard, his surname was Snow too just a while ago. As for motive, Mance may want to secure WF for his wildings, or make peace so the realm can concentrate on fighting The Others.

[ghosts in winterfell]

People say Ramsay put all those things in to sound like Mance. Why would he want to do that? Also, as someone said, Ramsay would NEVER call Jon a bastard, his surname was Snow too just a while ago. As for motive, Mance may want to secure WF for his wildings, or make peace so the realm can concentrate on fighting The Others.

Actually I think this sounds exactly like something Ramsay would say. He wouldn't be able to resist rubbing it in Jon's face.

[Fallenangel]

Actually I think this sounds exactly like something Ramsay would say. He wouldn't be able to resist rubbing it in Jon's face.

You're right, maybe he would. We don't know much about Ramsay except that he likes torturing people. He still is a bastard though, legitimized or not.

[Rooseman]

Actually I think this sounds exactly like something Ramsay would say. He wouldn't be able to resist rubbing it in Jon's face.

Yeah well I don't know, maybe he would, maybe he wouldn't. He called his horse "bastard" once. Apart from that, I don't think he has ever used the word on-screen.

I personally don't think that he would rub someone's actual bastard status in his face. The immediate thing that the other one would be thinking of, is Ramsay's own bastard status. And that's something that he doesn't want to remind people of. It's a real weak point of his, something that he genuinely does get angry about. That's different from the other things that he "gets angry about," like Theon chewing on one of his fingers, or Jeyne not being insta-wet. Things that are just a pretext for him to punish people. He really doesn't want to be reminded of being a bastard.

But this isn't one of the stronger arguments against Ramsay as the author, because it's not really as clear.

[butterbumps!]

Oh, I wasn't the first one to point this out.

Last year, another user (sorry, I didn't remember his name) actually went throught the books and confirmed that "black crow" is never used by southerners.

The only thing I did differently was actually posting the quotes themselves. It's just much more convincing that way, if you see it before your own eyes.

Also, the reason why I made this thread is, that I find the "black crow" thing super convincing, but the argument is not as widely known as it should be. I usually post it in every pink letter thread ( :)), but one page later the next guy says "well there's no evidence that it was Mance, it's just wishful thinking"

The theory that Mance is the sender is my second favorite "crackpot" (just second to Ice magic Roose, lol). I think there's a lot of value in the way you framed this with the linguistic difference front and center-- it's a fresh approach to the question. My approach was always opposite-- I'd compare the letter to lines Mance had previously said, and pointing out the crow thing was always an after thought. So I like how you did this.

That said, I was wondering about your thoughts on motives. The way I've come to see this theory is that Mance might have been the person who literally wrote the letter, but that it's actually Mel who's behind it. Mel is the one with motive, and as of the middle of DwD, she was using Mance as her operative.

We know that Mel adulterates interpretations of magic and visions to suit her goals, and as of DwD, she's working toward the goal of getting Jon to trust her. She mistakenly thinks he's just an unbeliever, not realizing he's fully aware of her power, but that he just doesn't trust her. In this context, she goes out of her way constantly to make Jon a believer, trying to use her abilities at forecast to get him to listen to her-- in particular, she wants to become his first councilor, it seems.

She thinks he doesn't believe her "daggers in the dark" warnings, and comes up with various tricks to get him to heed her-- the stunt with Ghost, trying to seduce him to "join powers," saving Arya, forecasting rangers' deaths at the hand of the Weeper.

Of particular note, the morning the Pink Letter arrives, she predicts that a letter will arrive, telling him that all his questions about Stannis, Arya and Mance will be answered. She's very vocal about the arrival of this letter, as well as the fact that when it comes, Jon needs to come to her immediately. As it happens, the very first lines of the letter instruct Jon to go talk to Mel. That seems rather significant.

In my view, the Mance theory makes the most sense when we see the letter as one of Mel's desperate attempts to bring Jon to heel. She wants him to start coming to her, and the letter tells him to go to her. My guess is that she figured that the arrival of the letter would finally convince Jon to seek her out immediately, at which point she would confirm which of it is lies versus truth. That is, the letter would have been written to provoke him, but rather than provocation to leave the Wall, it was provocation to seek Mel. He'd not have chosen to leave the Wall, and she'd have gained his trust. To this end, the letter wouldn't be coded so much as the presentation of a desperate situation that would compel Jon to seek her out, at which point she'd ostensibly tell him the true situation.

[Fallenangel]

Yeah well I don't know, maybe he would, maybe he wouldn't. He called his horse "bastard" once. Apart from that, I don't think he has ever used the word on-screen.

I personally don't think that he would rub someone's actual bastard status in his face. The immediate thing that the other one would be thinking of, is Ramsay's own bastard status. And that's something that he doesn't want to remind people of. It's a real weak point of his, something that he genuinely does get angry about. That's different from the other things that he "gets angry about," like Theon chewing on one of his fingers, or Jeyne not being insta-wet. Things that are just a pretext for him to punish people. He really doesn't want to be reminded of being a bastard.

But this isn't one of the stronger arguments against Ramsay as the author, because it's not really as clear.

^^^Agree

[FittleLinger]

People say Ramsay put all those things in to sound like Mance. Why would he want to do that? Also, as someone said, Ramsay would NEVER call Jon a bastard, his surname was Snow too just a while ago. As for motive, Mance may want to secure WF for his wildings, or make peace so the realm can concentrate on fighting The Others.

Eh, not really convinced by "Ramsay won't call him bastard". I think he would, he doesn't like being called that way, but I don't think he has any problem calling others that. He be cray.

The possibilities in my mind are the following:

1. Ramsay is the author. He has (nearly) lost the battle, the whole fArya thing is starting to fall apart, and he is desperate, thus taunting Jon.

2. Ramsay is the author but is being played by Stannis/Manderley. He just doesn't know he should be desperate.

3. Mance is the author. Should that be the case, a question pops up - do they have a code and Jon knows it's Mance, or is it just him improvizing on the spot, and Jon doesn't know that it's him?

[ghosts in winterfell]

Yeah well I don't know, maybe he would, maybe he wouldn't. He called his horse "bastard" once. Apart from that, I don't think he has ever used the word on-screen.

I personally don't think that he would rub someone's actual bastard status in his face. The immediate thing that the other one would be thinking of, is Ramsay's own bastard status. And that's something that he doesn't want to remind people of. It's a real weak point of his, something that he genuinely does get angry about. That's different from the other things that he "gets angry about," like Theon chewing on one of his fingers, or Jeyne not being insta-wet. Things that are just a pretext for him to punish people. He really doesn't want to be reminded of being a bastard.

But this isn't one of the stronger arguments against Ramsay as the author, because it's not really as clear.

Yeah I do agree there's a pretty solid argument that Mance is the author. He's my #2 choice, but I just really want it to be Ramsay :(