A black crow and a pink letter

[Fool of a Book]

This is a very strong theory, Rooseman.

If I can add something else; I see very little reason for Ramsay to care about the wildling princess and the wildling prince. But I see every reason in the world for Mance to care about them.

[ghosts in winterfell]

The theory that Mance is the sender is my second favorite "crackpot" (just second to Ice magic Roose, lol). I think there's a lot of value in the way you framed this with the linguistic difference front and center-- it's a fresh approach to the question. My approach was always opposite-- I'd compare the letter to lines Mance had previously said, and pointing out the crow thing was always an after thought. So I like how you did this.

That said, I was wondering about your thoughts on motives. The way I've come to see this theory is that Mance might have been the person who literally wrote the letter, but that it's actually Mel who's behind it. Mel is the one with motive, and as of the middle of DwD, she was using Mance as her operative.

<snip>

This is a really good take on it, Mel is probably desperate enough for his approval to go to such lengths. But I'm curious, how would you explain Mance's and the spearwives' presence at Winterfell? Wasn't their assignment to swing by Long Lake, based on Mel's vision of the Gray Girl? Do you think it was always a part of the plan? How could she have known that Roose changed the location of Ramsay & fArya's wedding from Barrowton to Winterfell?

[Jon Weirgaryen]

how would you explain Mance's and the spearwives' presence at Winterfell? Wasn't their assignment to swing by Long Lake, based on Mel's vision of the Gray Girl? Do you think it was always a part of the plan? How could she have known that Roose changed the location of Ramsay & fArya's wedding from Barrowton to Winterfell?

Think of it as Mance's plan. No Arya at long lake but a wedding at Winterfell. Mance is on his very own long-term mission for the horn of Winter. Not found north of the wall, he's to find it in Winterfell. Mance is this Rhaegar-type who believes in prophecy stuff.

[ghosts in winterfell]

Think of it as Mance's plan. No Arya at long lake but a wedding at Winterfell. Mance is on his very own long-term mission for the horn of Winter. Not found north of the wall, he's to find it in Winterfell. Mance is this Rhaegar-type who believes in prophecy stuff.

Yeah I'm actually a big fan of Mance searching for the Horn of Winter in the crypts, I was speaking more in the context of butterbumps! theory.

[butterbumps!]

This is a really good take on it, Mel is probably desperate enough for his approval to go to such lengths. But I'm curious, how would you explain Mance's and the spearwives' presence at Winterfell? Wasn't their assignment to swing by Long Lake, based on Mel's vision of the Gray Girl? Do you think it was always a part of the plan? How could she have known that Roose changed the location of Ramsay & fArya's wedding from Barrowton to Winterfell?

Well, regardless of any Pink Letter theories, I think Mance's movements are easily explained. Without any sort of theory coming in to play, Mance was tasked with finding Arya, and once he had set out into the North, it would only take his hearing a rumor of the wedding at Winterfell to change gears. So without even speculating too much, I think assuming that Mance could easily find out about the change in plans is safe.

I think Mel's main directive was to find Jon's sister, and to that end, she thought this meant going to Long Lake. Meaning, I think Mance's primary objective was to retrieve Arya no matter what. So if he came upon information that said Arya was at Winterfell, he'd go to Winterfell. It may be too speculative an assumption, but I'd suspect that Mance and Mel arranged for some form of communication in the event that he couldn't secure Arya-- which is where the Pink Letter theory comes in. Because Mel's whole plan to get Jon to trust her falls apart if Mance is unsuccessful, so there needs to be a plan B, which is what I'm suggesting the letter might be in the event Mance wrote it.

Here's the thing though. I do think Mance has his own game in mind-- Rooseman quoted the passage about Mance's having a little "ploy" in mind, himself. I get the sense that Mance saw Mel's directive as an excuse that allowed him to pursue his own ends, and it happened to align well enough with what Mel wanted him to do-- more so once he found out Arya would be at Winterfell. And I hasten to add that I think this is the case regardless of whether Mance authored the letter-- I think he's looking to do something at Winterfell anyway. But I want to point out that if Mance also authored the letter, it wouldn't be part of whatever plan he has in mind for his own ends, but one set in place for Mel.

There's something that might be significant to point out wrt Mance, Manderly and the Umbers, though I don't know if that would take us off-track here. But I have suspicion that Mel isn't the only one using Mance as an operative. I'm leaning toward the possibility that Mel, a few Northmen and Mance himself have 3 different personal endgames in mind, all of which align in the sense that it puts Mance in Winterfell. I'm not really talking GNC here so much as I think we're seeing a conflagration of separate goals by different interests in terms of Mance's being at Winterfell. Whether Mance wrote the letter or not.

Also, since you and I discussed a lot of Bolton speculation in your thread and this letter came up, I still think "Ramsay wrote it" might be the default, and suspect if he's the author, that Roose sanctioned it.

[OnionAhaiReborn]

How common is the knowledge that Ramsay calls Theon 'Reek'? Specifically how well known is the formation 'my Reek'? Can Mance have picked up on it that quickly? And why, even if he's trying to impersonate Ramsay, would he use this phrase when almost certainly Jon hasn't heard it before?

[Ashkhen]

But I want to point out that if Mance also authored the letter, it wouldn't be part of whatever plan he has in mind for his own ends, but one set in place for Mel.

Right. The use of wildling phrases is a strong indicator that the author is Mance (or another wildling), but it doesn't necessarily mean that Mance is writing the letter alone, or to further his own agenda.

[FittleLinger]

snip

Interesting as always, I don't get one thing, though. What does Mel accomplish by demanding such a letter in case Mance doesn't secure Arya?

[Ashkhen]

How common is the knowledge that Ramsay calls Theon 'Reek'? Specifically how well known is the formation 'my Reek'? Can Mance have picked up on it that quickly? And why, even if he's trying to impersonate Ramsay, would he use this phrase when almost certainly Jon hasn't heard it before?

I think Mance could have picked up on it quickly. He's astute, and Ramsay isn't exactly shy about his treatment of Theon /Reek.

Plus, Mance might not know whether or not Jon has heard that phrase, and included it just in case.

[Lady Gwynhyfvar]

I think this is an excellent presentation Rooseman, and a great way to bring new life to this debate!

The language used is very compelling, imo and I wonder about the use of the term "King-Beyond-the-Wall" as well. Would that be used south of the Wall? As for the word bastard-- as a word, it strikes terror in Theon because Ramsay HATES it, possibly an indicator he wouldn't use it. Then again if Ramsay were the letter writer, I suppose he might use it to try to provoke Jon as it would himself. Since I'm not sure he's that subtle, lol, I give a slight edge to the former. It's also possible Mance would know of his feelings about the word and use it for that exact reason. Finally the term "for all the north to see" is used one other time in the text and that is when Catelyn is thinking of Ned bringing Jon to Winterfell "for all the north to see" I wonder about the significance of that.

Equally compelling is the knowledge the letter writer has. It's always pointed out that the letter contains things that would only be known to Mance, Jon and Mel. As such, it could indeed be a form of code-- either between Mance and Jon, or Mance and Mel. I find it interesting that the letter writer requests all of the highborn women at the Wall, even Val (who stands out among the wildling women) Almost as if he knew Jon would stand to defend them. On the Ramsay wrote the letter side, this is the weakest link, imo. I really don't see Mance delivering all of this information under torture as quickly as he would have had to for Ramsay to be the letter writer. Regarding the use of "Reek", Theon was openly called Reek at WF so Mance and the spearwives would have known the name. I'd imagine it would be used to add realism (what they perceived to be "Ramsay's style" in much the same way they might have used the word bastard.) Again, could go either way but I give a slight edge to Mance.

An aside regarding the six spearwives, I find it interesting that when Mance was planning his mission he requested half a dozen horses and spearwives "young ones and pretty" He shows up at Winterfell with six spearwives (and most likely no horses) one of whom is Myrtle-- "an older woman, deep-voiced, with grey streaks in her hair" I haven't quite figured this out in relation to the letter, but I'm sure Myrtle is significant and there may be some coded reference in play in the letter.

Mance left the Wall heading to Long Lake. In the vicinity of Long Lake it is entirely possible that he would meet Hother Umber en route from Last Hearth to WF with the knowledge that wedding location has been changed. Significantly, Hother is the Umber who has been in contact with Lord Manderly (building ships together) and is often identified by the GNC as one of the main conspirators inside Winterfell.

Another check in the "not Ramsay" column is the difference between this letter and others he has written. No "black spiky handwriting" and no little piece of skin? The lack of the trophy skin alone, imo points directly away from Ramsay.

As for the purpose, I like either of the explanations suggested by Rooseman and butterbumps. In interpreting this, I think it's important to remember that the letter writing was written, not actually done. That is, the characters are not acting of their own free will but under the direction of the author. In which case things like language and references (both those that are included, and those that may have been excluded, like a scrap of skin) really matter as they are quite purposeful, most likely for the benefit of the reader.

[butterbumps!]

How common is the knowledge that Ramsay calls Theon 'Reek'? Specifically how well known is the formation 'my Reek'? Can Mance have picked up on it that quickly? And why, even if he's trying to impersonate Ramsay, would he use this phrase when almost certainly Jon hasn't heard it before?

Mance definitely knows the Ramsay-Reek dynamic. Mance might not know Jon doesn't know about it-- or wouldn't care in the context of the letter being Mel's brainchild. If the point was simply to get Jon to seek out Mel, with the idea she'd be giving him the truth from her fires or what have you, it's something that could be easily explained. In theory.

Interesting as always, I don't get one thing, though. What does Mel accomplish by demanding such a letter in case Mance doesn't secure Arya?

Well, it would be a plan B. If we're going by Mel's motive-- to get Jon to believe in her power, and ergo, begin to trust her-- her chances of this happening fall apart if Mance is unsuccessful at retrieving Arya. But if she "predicts" the arrival of a letter explaining why the Arya mission was unsuccessful, then she's still got a shot at getting Jon to believe she's not a hack.

[Rooseman]

How common is the knowledge that Ramsay calls Theon 'Reek'? Specifically how well known is the formation 'my Reek'? Can Mance have picked up on it that quickly? And why, even if he's trying to impersonate Ramsay, would he use this phrase when almost certainly Jon hasn't heard it before?

Mance definitely knows. It's pretty common knowledge, even all the guards call him "Reek." Mance has spent enaugh time in the castle to pick up on that. But this passage makes it clear, that the spearwives definitely know:

The old gods, he thought. They know me. They know my name. I was Theon of House Greyjoy. I was a ward of Eddard Stark, a friend and brother to his children. “Please.” He fell to his knees. “A sword, that’s all I ask. Let me die as Theon, not as Reek.” Tears trickled down his cheeks, impossibly warm. “I was ironborn. A son … a son of Pyke, of the islands.”

[...]

A voice said, “Who are you talking to?”

[...]

“Did the Bastard hurt you?” Rowan asked. “Chopped off your fingers, did he? Skinned your widdle toes? Knocked your teeth out? Poor lad.” She patted his cheek. “There will be no more o’ that, I promise. You prayed, and the gods sent us. You want to die as Theon? We’ll give you that. A nice quick death, ’twill hardly hurt at all.” She smiled. “But not till you’ve sung for Abel. He’s waiting for you.”

[Rooseman]

The theory that Mance is the sender is my second favorite "crackpot" (just second to Ice magic Roose, lol). I think there's a lot of value in the way you framed this with the linguistic difference front and center-- it's a fresh approach to the question. My approach was always opposite-- I'd compare the letter to lines Mance had previously said, and pointing out the crow thing was always an after thought. So I like how you did this.

That said, I was wondering about your thoughts on motives. The way I've come to see this theory is that Mance might have been the person who literally wrote the letter, but that it's actually Mel who's behind it. Mel is the one with motive, and as of the middle of DwD, she was using Mance as her operative.

<snip>

Thanks for the kind words, I really appreciate it.

I find the idea that Melisandre has her fingers in this super intriguing. It definitely fits her character to influence events in a way that would make Jon trust and consult her. Haven't thought about it like this before, but it makes much sense. Thanks, I like it!

Man, the whole Melisandre/Jon storyline is becoming one of my absolute favourites (thanks @yolkboy, too :)). There's so much mystery behind it and it's so much fun to discuss and speculate about this!

[Lummel]

The guy speaks the Old Tongue. He was raised at The Wall. He deserted as a young man. He learned a new language and a rather difficult language st that as an adult. Learning to read and write are easily in his capacity to learn. I would assume yes he does know. If it hasn't be specifically stated as of yet.

Can Mance speak old tongue? Tormund can, but I don't recall that being said of Mance.

Whether Mance is literate is not proven. However the author of the letter and the writer of the letter are not necessarily the same person. It all depends on what kind of scenario / context you imagine that this letter is being composed in.

[Rooseman]

Another check in the "not Ramsay" column is the difference between this letter and others he has written. No "black spiky handwriting" and no little piece of skin? The lack of the trophy skin alone, imo points directly away from Ramsay.

And no blood as inc! Ramsay even wrote his fucking wedding invitation in blood. Think about this for a second...!

[lojzelote]

Could someone explain to me what would Mance (or Stannis, Asha, Theon, anybody else than Ramsay) gain by sending the fr**king letter? He thought it would be great fun to trick and inconvenience the turncloak bastard? Because that's the only at least a tiny bit sensible reason as to why Mance would bother.

That little "ploy" of his was the singer Abel&washerwomen charade, everything else is pure speculation. And even if he's searching for the ASoIaF version of Holy Grail in the meantime, then it still doesn't give him any logical reason to troll Jon with spam post.

Frankly, to me it seems just like a creating a nonsensical twist for the sake of twist.

IMO, the question isn't who wrote the letter, but what information in it is based on truth.

[butterbumps!]

Could someone explain to me what would Mance (or Stannis, Asha, Theon, anybody else than Ramsay) gain by sending the fr**king letter? He thought it would be great fun to trick and inconvenience the turncloak bastard? Because that's the only at least a tiny bit sensible reason as to why Mance would bother.

That little "ploy" of his was the singer Abel&washerwomen charade, everything else is pure speculation. And even if he's searching for the ASoIaF version of Holy Grail in the meantime, then it still doesn't give him any logical reason to troll Jon with spam post.

Frankly, to me it seems just like a creating a nonsensical twist for the sake of twist.

IMO, the question isn't who wrote the letter, but what information in it is based on truth.

The way I've come to see this theory is that Mance might have been the person who literally wrote the letter, but that it's actually Mel who's behind it. Mel is the one with motive, and as of the middle of DwD, she was using Mance as her operative.

We know that Mel adulterates interpretations of magic and visions to suit her goals, and as of DwD, she's working toward the goal of getting Jon to trust her. She mistakenly thinks he's just an unbeliever, not realizing he's fully aware of her power, but that he just doesn't trust her. In this context, she goes out of her way constantly to make Jon a believer, trying to use her abilities at forecast to get him to listen to her-- in particular, she wants to become his first councilor, it seems.

She thinks he doesn't believe her "daggers in the dark" warnings, and comes up with various tricks to get him to heed her-- the stunt with Ghost, trying to seduce him to "join powers," saving Arya, forecasting rangers' deaths at the hand of the Weeper.

Of particular note, the morning the Pink Letter arrives, she predicts that a letter will arrive, telling him that all his questions about Stannis, Arya and Mance will be answered. She's very vocal about the arrival of this letter, as well as the fact that when it comes, Jon needs to come to her immediately. As it happens, the very first lines of the letter instruct Jon to go talk to Mel. That seems rather significant.

In my view, the Mance theory makes the most sense when we see the letter as one of Mel's desperate attempts to bring Jon to heel. She wants him to start coming to her, and the letter tells him to go to her. My guess is that she figured that the arrival of the letter would finally convince Jon to seek her out immediately, at which point she would confirm which of it is lies versus truth. That is, the letter would have been written to provoke him, but rather than provocation to leave the Wall, it was provocation to seek Mel. He'd not have chosen to leave the Wall, and she'd have gained his trust. To this end, the letter wouldn't be coded so much as the presentation of a desperate situation that would compel Jon to seek her out, at which point she'd ostensibly tell him the true situation.

[Rooseman]

Could someone explain to me what would Mance (or Stannis, Asha, Theon, anybody else than Ramsay) gain by sending the fr**king letter? He thought it would be great fun to trick and inconvenience the turncloak bastard? Because that's the only at least a tiny bit sensible reason as to why Mance would bother.

That little "ploy" of his was the singer Abel&washerwomen charade, everything else is pure speculation. And even if he's searching for the ASoIaF version of Holy Grail in the meantime, then it still doesn't give him any logical reason to troll Jon with spam post.

Frankly, to me it seems just like a creating a nonsensical twist for the sake of twist.

IMO, the question isn't who wrote the letter, but what information in it is based on truth.

All of this has been addressed in the thread. I know it's tedious to go through all of it, but so is repeating the answer to the same questions every 2 pages.

[Mark Antony]

Nice post OP but still they're called Crows everywhere right? And it's known they wear black. Not a big leap for someone who isnt a Wildling to say it imo.

Still Mance would be my 2nd choice if it is not Ramsay himself...

[Rooseman]

Nice post OP but still they're called Crows everywhere right? And it's known they wear black. Not a big leap for someone who isnt a Wildling to say it imo.

Yeah, they're called "crows." But the pink letter is the first time in all the books, that someone who hasn't lived north of the Wall called them "black crows" and that's pretty noteworthy.