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A Certain Ploy Mance Has in Mind


Mithras

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“I will need horses. Half a dozen good ones. And this is nothing I can do alone. Some of the spearwives penned up at Mole’s Town should serve. Women would be best for this. The girl’s more like to trust them, and they will help me carry off a certain ploy I have in mind.”



Arya was seen by Mel in a vision as a girl in greys coming to CB on a dying horse. Of course that was actually Alys Karstark but still, Mance and his 6 spearwives were sent to find her and bring her to CB.



Alys came to CB by herself and we know that Mance infiltrated to Winterfell as a singer called Abel.



From the careful wording of Mance, the spearwives would help him to carry a certain ploy but that ploy was not necessarily related to saving Arya mission. It seems neither Mel nor Jon realized that.



There is a good probability that Mance has some business with Mors Umber. In fact, I think that Rowan might be Crowfood's daughter stolen by the wildlings long ago. What Crowfood did after shaking hands with Stannis until collecting Theon and fArya from the snow is still a mystery.



Once the girl in the vision is revealed to be Alys, Jon wondered where the hell was Mance and he suspected Mel of playing a different game. Of course Mel has no other game except banging Jon but the game Jon suspected is certainly the ploy which Mance has in mind.



A golden dawn was breaking in the east, but behind Lady Melisandre’s window in the King’s Tower a reddish light still flickered. Does she never sleep? What game are you playing, priestess? Did you have some other task for Mance?



“The vision was a true one. It was my reading that was false. I am as mortal as you, Jon Snow. All mortals err.”


“Even lord commanders.” Mance Rayder and his spearwives had not returned, and Jon could not help but wonder whether the red woman had lied of a purpose. Is she playing her own game?



Jon walked to the edge of the Wall and gazed down upon the killing ground where Mance Rayder’s host had died. He wondered where Mance was now. Did he ever find you, little sister? Or were you just a ploy he used so I would set him free?



At Winterfell, 5-6 weeks passed after the wedding. It was only then the spearwives and Abel tried to learn the secret entry to Winterfell which they thought Theon exploited during his taking of Winterfell. Theon suspected their inquisitions were in fact a ploy or a game played by Ramsay to skin him further. He is right about the existence of a ploy but he is wrong about its origin.



The castle was too crowded to withstand a long siege, and too many of the lords here were of uncertain loyalty. Fat Wyman Manderly, Whoresbane Umber, the men of House Hornwood and House Tallhart, the Lockes and Flints and Ryswells, all of them were northmen, sworn to House Stark for generations beyond count. It was the girl who held them here, Lord Eddard’s blood, but the girl was just a mummer’s ploy, a lamb in a direwolf’s skin. So why not send the northmen forth to battle Stannis before the farce unraveled? Slaughter in the snow. And every man who falls is one less foe for the Dreadfort.



Here he called fArya a mummer's ploy. Wait, Mance's mission is also called "Operation Arya". Theon unknowingly pointed to Mance's ploy.



“Stannis has five thousand, they say, but Abel claims ten times as many still could not breach these walls. So how did you get in, m’lord? Did you have some secret way?”


Theon wrenched away. This was a ploy, he knew it. Ramsay sent her. She’s another of his japes, like Kyra with the keys. A jolly jape, that’s all. He wants me to run, so he can punish me.



Again Theon suspected of a ploy of Ramsay but that was the ploy of Mance. By the way, how do they know that Stannis has five thousand soldiers?



“Did Abel send you to me?”


“Might be. Might be I sent myself. But if it’s Abel you’re wanting, I could bring him. He’ll sing m’lord a sweet song.”


Every word she said persuaded Theon that this was all some ploy. But whose, and to what end? What could Abel want of him? The man was just a singer, a pander with a lute and a false smile. He wants to know how I took the castle, but not to make a song of it. The answer came to him. He wants to know how we got in so he can get out. Lord Bolton had Winterfell sewn up tight as a babe’s swaddling clothes. No one could come or go without his leave. He wants to flee, him and his washerwoman.



Here Theon again suspected a ploy and wondered what it could be.



“Lord Stannis is outside the walls, and not far by the sound of it. All we need do is reach him.” Abel’s fingers danced across the strings of his lute. The singer’s beard was brown, though his long hair had largely gone to grey. “If the Bastard does come after us, he might live long enough to rue it.”



Mance says that they all want to escape but he didn’t come with Theon when they jumped. Perhaps that was never the plan. He intended to stay behind. Surely, Mance does not look like he wants to get out, nor he is frightened to be left behind even after their escape.



We know that the way to crypts was opened and Mance didn’t ask Theon the secret passage to Winterfell again. They were assuming Theon used a secret way through the crypts to capture Winterfell and now that they know the way to the crypts, it is strange why they never asked him this again.



So what is the ploy Mance has in mind and what does it have to do with the crypts beneath Winterfell?


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So what is the ploy Mance has in mind and what does it have to do with the crypts beneath Winterfell?

That's a hell of a good question. He either wants a secret entrance from the crypts, or he wants something INSIDE it. Is what he wants for the good of everyone at the wall?

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Mel knows what Mance is up to.



“I will need horses. Half a dozen good ones. And this is nothing I can do alone. Some of the spearwives penned up at Mole’s Town should serve. Women would be best for this. The girl’s more like to trust them, and they will help me carry off a certain ploy I have in mind.”


“What is he talking about?” Lord Snow asked her.


“Your sister.” Melisandre put her hand on his arm. “You cannot help her, but he can.”



Mel know's full well that Mance's ploy and the Arya rescue are two separate things but she doesn't want Jon to know. She lies to cover Mance's slip up.


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  • 3 months later...

Mel knows what Mance is up to.

“I will need horses. Half a dozen good ones. And this is nothing I can do alone. Some of the spearwives penned up at Mole’s Town should serve. Women would be best for this. The girl’s more like to trust them, and they will help me carry off a certain ploy I have in mind.”

“What is he talking about?” Lord Snow asked her.

“Your sister.” Melisandre put her hand on his arm. “You cannot help her, but he can.”

Mel know's full well that Mance's ploy and the Arya rescue are two separate things but she doesn't want Jon to know. She lies to cover Mance's slip up.

I agree. Mel saw some other visions and made a plan with Mance off screen. And that plan obviously involved sneaking into Winterfell.

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I think the "certain ploy" is most likely the recreation of the tale of Bael the Bard.



Even if you subscribe to the idea that Mance is collaborating with Mors Umber and/or Wyman Manderly, it's unlikely he had finalized his plans at the Wall, not knowing the players that would be at Winterfell.


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Mance has cunning, but are we sure that he didn't put a hit on Bran back in book 1?



Also, is Ryder the surname for Lordy bastards born beyond the wall? If so, Mance is not only Bloodraven's catspaw but also his bastard.



Furthermore, are we sure that Bolton is not in Mance's pocket?



[/senseless Speculation]

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I think the "certain ploy" is most likely the recreation of the tale of Bael the Bard.

Even if you subscribe to the idea that Mance is collaborating with Mors Umber and/or Wyman Manderly, it's unlikely he had finalized his plans at the Wall, not knowing the players that would be at Winterfell.

I agree. Mance is likely hiding at the crypts, just like Bael did. And Theon told him where the entrance was off-page, in the chapter that ends with the spearwives leading him to the godswood to meet Mance. If Ramsey knows about Mance is because he tortured the spearwives to get that info, I think

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Well the best clue we have about this is ramsay s letter. "I have him in a cage for all the north to see".

So first option is this is real and weather mance wanted to be captured (a certain ploy) or not he made a bad choice..... come on everybody knows the boltons skin people.

Second one though suits me more, obviously cause mance can be anything but a fool. He s not ramsay s captive, but then we have to ask ourselfs how does ramsay know that abel is mance?(and many other things he says in the letter,but that should be another post) Can t be a guess... mance wanted him to know and left him something like another letter, or a hint. It can be wrong and one of the spearwifes wasn t dead and they got all this from her mouth,or mance sent the pink letter, but I don t like things going so easy with grrm. So my bet is that mance saw how things were going at winterfell with all the manderlys and the freys tension and got the opportunity to put up his plan to get ramsay mad. And could ramsay send a letter wich could imply other forces against the boltons with roose knowing? Don t think so... can it be mance managed to kill roose?

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Anybody believe that the George kept Mance (a character referenced heavily since book 1, and presumably improtant to the overall story) alive through battle and glamour's only to be skinned by the bastard of the dreadfort off page. I for one think it's highly likely that Mance has a plan. I suspect that he wrote the pink letter as a means of coaxing Jon to ride for Winterfell with Mance's army. Also possible as I've seen speculated on other threads that the horn of Joramun might be in the Winterfell crypts. Not sure of the end game here just strongly suspect that characters with as much off page build up as Mance, Euron, etc. will have greater significance in the next two books than is commonly believed.


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