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How did Varys know Gregor would have beaten Aegon to an unrecognizable pulp ?


Gneisenau

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Plain and Valyrian face have no business being in the same sentence. We're talking about fantasy handsome looks, surreal beauty, not just different coloring, as confirmed by the author. It would not be at all likely that Varys would find a baby in Pisswater Bend that has Valyrian features. Even then, as has been stated over and over in this thread and countless others, Varys could not have known that Gregor would do that Aegon. What if Armory had gotten to the baby instead? They definitely would've recognized it as a fraud then.

But that's the thing with believing the swap happened and fAegon is real. It relies on too many what ifs and pure luck. It really is too good to be true.

Doesn't matter. As long as there was a dead infant presented, Varys could still reveal (f)Aegon 17 years later.

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Doesn't matter. As long as there was a dead infant presented, Varys could still reveal (f)Aegon 17 years later.

Robert was keeping tabs on Dany and Viserys...I'm pretty sure he could have found (or had somebody find) an infant Aegon if he knew that he was in Essos somewhere.

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Selmy, Jaime, Pycelle, wet nurse, servants, There were probably dozens if not hundreds in The Red Keep who could spot a fake Aegon. Jaime who guarded the child for over a year and Pycelle who no doubt pulled him from the womb.



The only way the plan works is if Tywin gives the order to kill the kids and Gregor bashes in the face of Aegon. If he orders them brought to Robert (Who may have seen the child if it was Presented to court after his birth being the future king and all) then no doubt anyone looking to curry favor would scream him a fake. And there would be three in Selmy, Jaime, and Pycelle who could make Robert a believer with one word.


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And if you can live in the same place the with a child for over a year and not be able to tell if the child has been switched with another one you have no doubt not been paying attention to said child. The three i mentioned above had a Job to Observe, Protect, Care For and more for Aegon they would have to be killed for the plan to work.


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Exactly. This is the plot hole that gives evidence to Aegon Blackfyre.

Not really. Especially as it is alluded to even in GOT that it might not be Aegon. The murder of the Targaryean children was most definitely a forseeable event, one that Varys may very well have acted to prevent. And Varys flat out tells Kevan that Aegon is alive, and it has been shown that Varys does tell the truth in one one one situations like that. There was nothing to be gained by lying, except a weak rationalization that he did not want his birds to know the deception.

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Aegon was born before Roberts Rebellion which lasted close to a year. Giving the taking of Lyanna followed by Brandon riding to Kings Landing and then Rickard Stark riding to and trail in King Landing. And time for the Banners to be called. Aegon would have to be about a year or more old when the city was sacked.

How could Varys know what Tywin would order? He is marching. How would his little birds whisper to him from a army marching to war? His birds failed with Stannis and Renly.

Had Robert giving any hint he wanted the Targ kids killed? The answer is no Ned would not have allowed it.

And then there is this. What if Ned beats the Lannister army to Kings Landing or arrives together? And takes the city or at the worst puts it under siege. Ned would have protected the kids and their mother. Meaning any switch would been noticed by those at court loyal to Robert.(Jaime, Pycelle, hostages of noble houses, etc.)

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nah babies all look the same, provided they're of the same skin color, and the same general size, you could easily swap any two babies out for one another, Gregor slamming his head against the wall is just the icing on the cake



I'm not saying that "Aegon"/young griff is really Aegon Targaryen, but the baby swapping part of the story is fully plausible


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He didn't. Varys is smart. I assume he'd studied the history of the Seven Kingdoms and learned a few things. The most recent relevant information readers have learned about the Kingdoms is in the Princess and the Queen. Larys Strong smuggled out Aegon II's children so they wouldn't be killed by Rhaenyra. Varys just took a page from his Larys's playbook.



This all hinges on whether Young Griff is really Aegon VI. But a precedent was set regarding the Master of Whisperers knowing how to smuggle royal heirs out of the Red Keep.


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A hundred and One things would have to happen for Varys plan to work. Tywin has to sack the city, Robert had to be injured on the Trident to delay his arrival, the Mountain has bash in Aegon's head. Pycelle would have to not look close at a baby he brought into the world, Aegon could have no birth marks, the Aegon and the pisswater prince would need the same hair and even eye color encase they are taking alive, Every servant who has ever saw him would have to not be able to tell the difference, etc, etc.



Like Benjamin Franklin said "Three men can keep a secret if two of them are dead" Varys knows, Illyrio knows, the pisswaters princes father would know something, and all of the Shy Maid crew knows. They all kept their silence for near two decades?


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Varys was expecting the wildfire plot to work. If not for Jaime, the KL would certainly be burned and the corpses would be unrecognizable. That would be more persuasive than red pulp alternative but it didnot happen. Thanks to Gregor, they at least have the red pulp.


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As I said, the fake, if there was one, was probably just intended to buy time. Gregor barges in and kills or captures him, it doesn't matter how, and eventually he's brought before the court. At this point, it doesn't matter if he's recognized as a fake; because Varys has already gotten him out of the city and Robert doesn't even have a fleet to go after him. Aegon is then in the same position as Viserys; he's out of the reach of assassins but everyone knows he's out there so that in case he comes back there won't be any doubt as to his identity.


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Aegon was one years old and all of the people that knew him well were dead or fled. Smashed head or burned body, Varys could still present his (f)Aegon.

Pycelle. You know, Aegon's personal physician. He was around directly after the sack, and he would have recognized a fake.

Which, incidentally, gives Varys a reason to kill Pycelle when he did it: He was eliminating the last remaining witness who could foil his con.

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Varys didn’t and couldn’t have predicted Gregor’s involvement in the death of Aegon/the Pisswater Prince.



If the swap occurred – the important part was that Aegon was safe, nothing else would have mattered – I don’t believe it would even have mattered to fake Aegon’s death. So what if Tywin Lannister discovers the pisswater prince? the real heir would have been far far away by that time. The fact that the babe's face was smashed and unrecognizable only facilitated the plot, since all believed Aegon to be dead – for Vary the pisswater princes's death would have been an "unexpected bonus."



If there wasn't ever a swap, and Aegon is really the son of Illyrio – Varys didn't need to expect anything from Gregor either. Aegon was killed, his face unrecognizable and so the plot was hatched.

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Not really. Especially as it is alluded to even in GOT that it might not be Aegon. The murder of the Targaryean children was most definitely a forseeable event, one that Varys may very well have acted to prevent. And Varys flat out tells Kevan that Aegon is alive, and it has been shown that Varys does tell the truth in one one one situations like that. There was nothing to be gained by lying, except a weak rationalization that he did not want his birds to know the deception.

Varys tells Kevan that Aegon is alive. Aegon, not Aegon VI Targaryen, born in the Red Keep. Ambigously like always when he's de facto lying while telling strictly the truth.

Why did you assume that Tywin didn't give that order to Mountain.It actually suits Tywin and brutally killing someTargeryans made Robert very happy so I assume it was Tywins orders to kill Aegon brutally.

Tywin definitely gave the order "to make it brutal, a lesson to the Dornish".

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