How did Varys know Gregor would have beaten Aegon to an unrecognizable pulp ?

[Fool of a Book]

As I said, the fake, if there was one, was probably just intended to buy time. Gregor barges in and kills or captures him, it doesn't matter how, and eventually he's brought before the court. At this point, it doesn't matter if he's recognized as a fake; because Varys has already gotten him out of the city and Robert doesn't even have a fleet to go after him. Aegon is then in the same position as Viserys; he's out of the reach of assassins but everyone knows he's out there so that in case he comes back there won't be any doubt as to his identity.

I agree with this.

So if there are 3 lines of thinking - maybe more I dunno.

Varys is lying, and conveniently has a Blackfyre (Bittersteel) descendant of the same age and coloring to introduce as fAegon, who has been raised as Aegon since birth. This would mean the timing and death of baby Aegon was an even bigger coincidence than Gregor bashing his face in. If Bittersteel was a legitimized bastard, why would he hide his descendant as Aegon. How could Varys know that someone with Blackfyre blood would conveniently birth a male with Targ looks at around the same time as Aegon - which was a year or so before the Sack. He would have had to know one year +9 months ahead if that was his big conspiracy plot.

Varys is lying and finds a replacement in Essos, who only looks like a Targ. He could hatch this plot well after the Sack due to the circumstances. But why would he do this with a fake commoner.

Varys is telling the truth and really does have Aegon. He had to know ahead of time to get a replacement baby. He knew Aerys was mad and plotting to burn KL. Right before the Sack, he switches the baby and of course Elia knows about it because he says he can get the baby safe. Plus he could easily say to Elia that Rhaenys was already safe somewhere and to stay put.

[Dragon Roast]

People see what they want to see and Tywin and the leaders of RR wanted an end to the Targ threat, so a dead baby would serve that end. It wouldn't be hard for Varys to guess how Tywin would approach KL and the royal family. He would know all about Tywin's dogs and their violent ways. The odds that they would kill all the Targs in KL would be very high. The idea that Tywin's men would be extremely brutal was a very safe bet.

[King Aemon I]

People see what they want to see and Tywin and the leaders of RR wanted an end to the Targ threat, so a dead baby would serve that end. It wouldn't be hard for Varys to guess how Tywin would approach KL and the royal family. He would know all about Tywin's dogs and their violent ways. The odds that they would kill all the Targs in KL would be very high. The idea that Tywin's men would be extremely brutal was a very safe bet.

No it wasn't a safe bet. Rhaenys and Elia suffered a terrible fate but their faces were pretty recognizable. Only Aegon's was smashed, and only Aegon was secretly alive, what a luck.

***

What we shouldn't forget here is that like everyone else, Varys and Illyrio want something and scheming to that target but what is that target?

If Varys wants only peace, prosperity and good of the realm, why not try to give a nice upbringing to Joffrey? First thing that comes to mind is what a beast Joffrey was but Varys didn't know that when he started this plot. Robert and Cersei had no children, and when Joff was born, well he was a baby and then a toddler. You might say Varys knew all about his, well incestors, and saw the danger but same goes for Aegon as well. His parents we're not kin, not enough be incest at least, but his father was of same birth like Joff and we saw how that worked out for Rhaegar. And regardless of parent kinship, Aegon is Aerys' grandson, that is troubling enough.

But Varys obviously cared something more than peace since that even after Tommen sat on the throne and war was coming to its end, he did everything he could to keep the struggles alive for he wanted a broken realm for Aegon's arrival, which makes me believe that he cared for Aegon's coronation more than the lives of tens of thousands.

But that can't be a simple Targaryen loyalty because he had Viserys before Aegon. But he never even cared for Viserys and Dany let alone crowning Viserys. For years they've wondered around, poor, being called beggars and mocked: "Beggar King". But Illyrio took them after many years where they raised Aegon since before he could walk. When he talked to Tyrion, Illyrio mentioned Viserys as a mad man and showed no affection in his memory whereas he remembered Aegon with great fondness even though he grew up away from Illyrio and probably spent less time with Illyrio than Viserys. Why is Aegon so special?

You might say Viserys was his father's son but this is not enough reason to with Aegon. Viserys was a child when he fled to Braavos with his sister and Darry and could've been adopted by Illyrio. You should remember that nobody doubted even Dany's bloodline whereas they didn't believe Aegon's at all. Would they doubt Viserys' bloodline? Of course not. But no, all this trouble for a boy who wasn't even introduced to Viserys while he was alive. But if they would do that, and if Viserys would take him as his nephew, none would doubt Aegon today. A boy who was hidden even after it was clear that Robert had no intention of hunting down the last Targaryens. Why?

Because Young Griff, Prince Aegon, King Aegon VI Targaryen, whatever you call him, is an impostor. Considering the painting in Illyrio's house and the affection in Illyrio's words, a son of Illyrio and another Valyrian alike woman. And considering Golden's Company's loyalty, possibly son of Illyrio and a Blackfyre princess.

[King Jackoffery]

He's a mad man.. He probably did it for fun, but it does seem a bit of a risk on varys part.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Varys is lying, and conveniently has a Blackfyre (Bittersteel) descendant of the same age and coloring to introduce as fAegon, who has been raised as Aegon since birth. This would mean the timing and death of baby Aegon was an even bigger coincidence than Gregor bashing his face in. If Bittersteel was a legitimized bastard, why would he hide his descendant as Aegon. How could Varys know that someone with Blackfyre blood would conveniently birth a male with Targ looks at around the same time as Aegon - which was a year or so before the Sack. He would have had to know one year +9 months ahead if that was his big conspiracy plot.

He doesn't need to cut it that close. JonCon was introduced to fAegon when he was six years old. But who says that he was indeed six and not five or seven?

And of course Varys could have just used the opportunity after Aegon's face was unrecognizable and his buddy Illyrio had a son with similar features and about the same age. Remember, Serra had the Valyrian looks. She may even be Varys' sister, both descended from Daemon Blackfyre through the female line.

[Fool of a Book]

No it wasn't a safe bet. Rhaenys and Elia suffered a terrible fate but their faces were pretty recognizable. Only Aegon's was smashed, and only Aegon was secretly alive, what a luck.

***

What we shouldn't forget here is that like everyone else, Varys and Illyrio want something and scheming to that target but what is that target?

If Varys wants only peace, prosperity and good of the realm, why not try to give a nice upbringing to Joffrey? First thing that comes to mind is what a beast Joffrey was but Varys didn't know that when he started this plot. Robert and Cersei had no children, and when Joff was born, well he was a baby and then a toddler. You might say Varys knew all about his, well incestors, and saw the danger but same goes for Aegon as well. His parents we're not kin, not enough be incest at least, but his father was of same birth like Joff and we saw how that worked out for Rhaegar. And regardless of parent kinship, Aegon is Aerys' grandson, that is troubling enough.

But Varys obviously cared something more than peace since that even after Tommen sat on the throne and war was coming to its end, he did everything he could to keep the struggles alive for he wanted a broken realm for Aegon's arrival, which makes me believe that he cared for Aegon's coronation more than the lives of tens of thousands.

But that can't be a simple Targaryen loyalty because he had Viserys before Aegon. But he never even cared for Viserys and Dany let alone crowning Viserys. For years they've wondered around, poor, being called beggars and mocked: "Beggar King". But Illyrio took them after many years where they raised Aegon since before he could walk. When he talked to Tyrion, Illyrio mentioned Viserys as a mad man and showed no affection in his memory whereas he remembered Aegon with great fondness even though he grew up away from Illyrio and probably spent less time with Illyrio than Viserys. Why is Aegon so special?

You might say Viserys was his father's son but this is not enough reason to with Aegon. Viserys was a child when he fled to Braavos with his sister and Darry and could've been adopted by Illyrio. You should remember that nobody doubted even Dany's bloodline whereas they didn't believe Aegon's at all. Would they doubt Viserys' bloodline? Of course not. But no, all this trouble for a boy who wasn't even introduced to Viserys while he was alive. But if they would do that, and if Viserys would take him as his nephew, none would doubt Aegon today. A boy who was hidden even after it was clear that Robert had no intention of hunting down the last Targaryens. Why?

Because Young Griff, Prince Aegon, King Aegon VI Targaryen, whatever you call him, is an impostor. Considering the painting in Illyrio's house and the affection in Illyrio's words, a son of Illyrio and another Valyrian alike woman. And considering Golden's Company's loyalty, possibly son of Illyrio and a Blackfyre princess.

So how did they know around 1 year and 9 months before the Sack that Illyrio should knock up the woman that they would use to replace Aegon as a secret Blackfyre.

[Fool of a Book]

He doesn't need to cut it that close. JonCon was introduced to fAegon when he was six years old. But who says that he was indeed six and not five or seven?

And of course Varys could have just used the opportunity after Aegon's face was unrecognizable and his buddy Illyrio had a son with similar features and about the same age. Remember, Serra had the Valyrian looks. She may even be Varys' sister, both descended from Daemon Blackfyre through the female line.

yea it doesn't need to be that close if fAegon is really fake, I guess. So their whole conspiracy had to be plotted after Aegon's face was smashed?

[King Aemon I]

So how did they know around 1 year and 9 months before the Sack that Illyrio should knock up the woman that they would use to replace Aegon as a secret Blackfyre.

No one said they did. You speak as if you know for sure that they are of same age and same they. There might be a year or a year and a half difference between Aegon and Fake Aegon, who knows? And we don't know when Jon Connington received the kid either do we? Who was there to question his age and location between his so call smuggling and deliverance to Lord Griffin?

Maybe Aegon died and a few months or a year later Fake Aegon was born. Sometime later they came up with the idea. Might be he was born a few months or a year before the sack. If I put a child in front of you and say he is 5 years old but in fact he was 6, how can you realise my lie?

Editing Note: I checked and found out Jon served for five years in GC so he never recieved a baby or a toddler but a walking, talking child. Varys said boy "has been shaped to rule before he could walk." Implying the possibility that even Aegon knows his true origins and he is consciously lying to Lord Connington.

[The guy from the Vale]

Yes. And remember Tyrion estimates Young Griff to be about 16... 2 years younger than Aegon is supposed to be.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

yea it doesn't need to be that close if fAegon is really fake, I guess. So their whole conspiracy had to be plotted after Aegon's face was smashed?

Why not? In the first place, Varys cared only about destroying the Targaryen regime. Inheriting was probably only an afterthought.

[Fool of a Book]

Well I guess none of the scenarios make complete sense, really. It's another wait and see mystery courtesy of GRRM

[Melisandros Megas]

Therefore either Gregor was in on the scheme, or Varys is lying.

Remember the miller kids that Theon fried. The same thing might be the case with the cadavers supposed to be Elia and her kids....and whether Greg was in on it or not, who knows, what do we really know about that guy anyway?

[RoamingRonin]

Pycelle. You know, Aegon's personal physician. He was around directly after the sack, and he would have recognized a fake.

Which, incidentally, gives Varys a reason to kill Pycelle when he did it: He was eliminating the last remaining witness who could foil his con.

Varys killed Pycelle for other reasons. I won't believe he had definitive proof that Aegon is a fake but does not present it to the council immediately:

"Sellswords fight for coin," declared Grand Maester Pycelle. "With enough gold, we might persuade the Golden Company to hand over Lord Connington and the pretender."

This is Pycelle's chance to say he has the information the council needs to expose the pretender but he doesn't. Because he has no proof. You don't offer coin to bribe and bargain when you have a trump card.

[King Aemon I]

Varys killed Pycelle for other reasons. I won't believe he had definitive proof that Aegon is a fake but does not present it to the council immediately:

This is Pycelle's chance to say he has the information the council needs to expose the pretender but he doesn't. Because he has no proof. You don't offer coin to bribe and bargain when you have a trump card.

If someone is declared dead, you don't have proof for him being fake or not, the side that claims Aegon lives offers proof that he lives.

[Dragon Roast]

No it wasn't a safe bet. Rhaenys and Elia suffered a terrible fate but their faces were pretty recognizable. Only Aegon's was smashed, and only Aegon was secretly alive, what a luck.

I have to disagree. It was a safe bet to assume that Tywin Lannister would kill all the Targaryens left in KL when he sacked the city. Especially when he had Amory Lorch and Gregor Clegane leading the attack. And Varys would know this because he would be aware of Tywin's arrangement with Pycell. Varys would know of the plan to convince Aryes that his former Hand rode to his rescue and that he should open the gates. That is why Varys tried to stop it. When it was clear that Aryes was going to listen to Pycell over him, he had time to put a plan B into place,

While Tywin could fool Aryes, I doubt that Varys would miss the coming doom for the royal family. Varys would have had a short time frame to act to save any of them. It could have happened as he said. Or not. Either way, the condition of the slain is immaterial.

A dead baby is a dead baby. Gregor smashing in the face just made it more gruesome, but the people looking at the child would all agree it was Aegon--regardless of the condition of the face. The Lannisters needed this to prove their loyalty. Pycell went along to continue proving his loyalty to Tywin. When the bodies were presented there was nobody present with a motive to dispute the assumption.

The brutality of Tywin and his team of butchers was completely predictable. If Varys was telling the truth about the baby switch, he could have done it just as he claimed. There is nothing about the way the three were slain that would be an obstacle to that plan. Dead bodies were presented as Princess Elia and her children, Aegon and Rhaenys. People saw what they wanted to see.

Now, I have no idea if the switch actually happened. In many ways, I doubt that Young Griff is actually Aegon, but I think it might also be true. But the condition of the bodies presented has no bearing on whether or not Varys told the truth at the end of ADWD.

[Stannis Eats No Peaches]

Varys didn't know. The scheme is all a load of bullshit.

[King Aemon I]

A dead baby is a dead baby. Gregor smashing in the face just made it more gruesome, but the people looking at the child would all agree it was Aegon--regardless of the condition of the face.

You recognize someone by their face. Or distinctions of their body but if that person is a baby, you recognize from his face alone. aDwD epilogue:

“A feigned boy is what he has,” said Randyll Tarly. “That may be. Or not.” Kevan Lannister had

been here, in this very hall when Tywin had laid the bodies of Prince Rhaegar’s children at the foot of

the Iron Throne, wrapped up in crimson cloaks. The girl had been recognizably the Princess Rhaenys, but

the boy … a faceless horror of bone and brain and gore, a few hanks of fair hair. None of us looked long.

Tywin said that it was Prince Aegon, and we took him at his word.

Girl and mother was recognisable, but not the boy. Too convenient. You wrote a large post about Lannisters' brutality but you're speaking like there is a way to measure of it or anything. Yes it was brutal nobody denies that but Rhaenys was stabbed half a hundred times, still she was recognizable. Someone like Varys doesn't rely on such a blind luck and if you don't see even that then there's no point debating.

[sleath56]

Varys didnt and couldnt have predicted Gregors involvement in the death of Aegon/the Pisswater Prince.

If the swap occurred the important part was that Aegon was safe, nothing else would have mattered I dont believe it would even have mattered to fake Aegons death. So what if Tywin Lannister discovers the pisswater prince? the real heir would have been far far away by that time. The fact that the babe's face was smashed and unrecognizable only facilitated the plot, since all believed Aegon to be dead for Vary the pisswater princes's death would have been an "unexpected bonus."

If there wasn't ever a swap, and Aegon is really the son of Illyrio Varys didn't need to expect anything from Gregor either. Aegon was killed, his face unrecognizable and so the plot was hatched.

I agree with this. What so wrong with Varys just wanting Aegon to be safe? I know people dislike Aegriff but this Pisswater Prinxe theory is entire plausible.

[The guy from the Vale]

I agree with this. What so wrong with Varys just wanting Aegon to be safe? I know people dislike Aegriff but this Pisswater Prinxe theory is entire plausible.

The question is why he didn't save Elia or Rhaenys, or why he didn't set up a court in exile. Hiding Aegon made the current questionable of him being real a thing in the first place...

[Good Guy Garlan]

Varys never wanted Aegon to be killed during the Sack. That's why he told Aerys to close the gates to Tywin.

If Varys was already planning to bring an imposter and all that, then the last thing he needed was to have Aegon killed and then presented to hundreds of witnesses. His original plan was probably to send Aegon to exile and then kill him and replace him in secret.

That way when he would show up in Westeros people would be like, "Who's that kid again? Oh, yeah, Aegon, the one who was in exile all those years. Yeah, that's plausible"

Now, however, people will be like, "Who? Aegon? Didn't he die?"