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[BOOK SPOILERS] Watching the show if it overpasses the books [Part 2]


Stubby

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"Seventy-hour-movie" could also mean eight seasons. Most episodes have a running time of 50-55 minutes. If you do the math, that means ca. 67-73 hours of television (if we assume a total length of 80 episodes/8 seasons).

I think that's a stretch. An hour of television colloquially is one episode, even if it's not actually an hour. That said, I don't think a director's word is that significant.

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The barriers against eight seasons are significant. Every actor still on the show since Season 1 will need to have their contract renegotiated and, given the success of the show, will likely be able to demand significant price hikes. If Emilia Clarke and Kit Harington's other non-GoT projects and movies are successful and they become more bankable movie stars, that price hike will likely become insurmountable. Eight seasons is only possible because the number of Season 1 castmembers still on the show by the time we get there will be relatively low. Nine is out because that's when all the Season 2 characters also get their contract renegotiations and the Season 1 actors will get further renegotiations (on a show like this, once the initial 6 years+1 year renewal option agreement expires, it switches to a season-by-season negotiation, which is how Friends ended with the main actors all on $1 million per episode each) and so on. It becomes insurmountably expensive.



HBO have never officially done an eight-season drama show before, especially of this scale. There are reasons for that beyond simple success or failure. GoT has a far better chance than any previous HBO show of hitting eight seasons, sure, but we should definitely not be taking it as a given at this stage.



Filming a double-length final season and splitting it might be doable (The Sopranos and Oz did it), as that overcomes some of the problems. However, the issues there become ones of planning, writing and pre-production time, and the fact that production would be running on later episodes whilst earlier ones are being edited and airing. It might be doable, but it might also require a splitting of time and resources that is not overall practical.


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The barriers against eight seasons are significant. Every actor still on the show since Season 1 will need to have their contract renegotiated and, given the success of the show, will likely be able to demand significant price hikes. If Emilia Clarke and Kit Harington's other non-GoT projects and movies are successful and they become more bankable movie stars, that price hike will likely become insurmountable. Eight seasons is only possible because the number of Season 1 castmembers still on the show by the time we get there will be relatively low. Nine is out because that's when all the Season 2 characters also get their contract renegotiations and the Season 1 actors will get further renegotiations (on a show like this, once the initial 6 years+1 year renewal option agreement expires, it switches to a season-by-season negotiation, which is how Friends ended with the main actors all on $1 million per episode each) and so on. It becomes insurmountably expensive.

HBO have never officially done an eight-season drama show before, especially of this scale. There are reasons for that beyond simple success or failure. GoT has a far better chance than any previous HBO show of hitting eight seasons, sure, but we should definitely not be taking it as a given at this stage.

Filming a double-length final season and splitting it might be doable (The Sopranos and Oz did it), as that overcomes some of the problems. However, the issues there become ones of planning, writing and pre-production time, and the fact that production would be running on later episodes whilst earlier ones are being edited and airing. It might be doable, but it might also require a splitting of time and resources that is not overall practical.

I think the main thing that is normally forgotten is this - how many season 1 & 2 actors will actually be left at the end of season 7, assuming it ends at the same place as TWoW? I think the rise in cost of the remaining actors could end up mostly being offset by the declining cast size.

Here's the list of season 1 and 2 characters that are still alive at the end of ADwD:

italics = the character is either mostly offscreen or not regular to begin with

bold = based on the way that the plot has progressed, the character is at least at a decent risk of dying in TWoW. They could survive and other characters could die, of course, but these are that have at least a notable chance of going.

S1:

Bran

Jon (assuming he is revived)

Catelyn

Rickon (likely to come back into centre stage)

Sansa

Arya

Theon

Cersei

Myrcella

Jaime

Sandor (assuming that was him on Quite Isle)

Hodor

Tyrion

Daenerys

Illyrio

Benjen (assuming he resurfaces in TWoW. The actor will have been gone so long that he will probably have to sign a new contract anyway)

Jorah

Varys

Petyr

Grenn (assuming they don't kill him off early)

Pyp (assuming they don't kill him off early)

Alliser (assuming they don't kill him off early)

Barristan

Lancel

Samwell

Gendry

Bronn (this one's kind of hard to guess with him taking Ilyn's role)

Loras

Robin Arryn

Osha

Meryn Trant (hard to guess because he could take the role of the Kettleblacks)

Walder Frey

Hot Pie

S2:

Dolorous Edd (assuming they don't kill him off early)

Melisandre

Stannis

Davos

Podrick

YarAsha

Margaery

Brienne

Roose

Lets say that half of the characters in bold die in TWoW. That leaves ~15-20 actors that would have to renegotiate contracts for S8, and an extra ~5 for S9 (not taking into account characters that may die in the first half of ADoS). I think that increase for S8 would mostly be covered by the reduced number of actors due to character deaths, and the increase for S9 most definitely would be. It is also worth noting that as it currently stands, the two actors that cost the most are Peter Dinklage and Lena Headey at 1/8 of a million per episode. So even if there is a significant price jump for the likes of Maisie, Kit, Emilia and Sophie, I doubt it would reach the level of shows like Friends where the main cast are all being paid $1 million per episode. I can see that being the case for Peter and Lena (if Cersei is still alive), and possibly Emilia, but I don't think the rest will be quite that expensive.

Also worth keeping in mind is the fact that each season has so far has had a budget of between $50-70 million. By comparison, HBO's The Pacific had a budget of $200 million across 10 episodes, and Netflix's upcoming series Marco Polo has a budget of $90 million, despite the fact that Netflix makes far less money than HBO. Considering that Game of Thrones is HBO's flagship series and is making them more money than any other series they've made, I can see them giving the show a budget increase for the final season or two to accommodate any rise in costs. In fact, assuming that the audience doesn't suddenly disappear (and it won't), it is in their best interests long term to keep funding the show.

tl;dr version: I think that potential increase in actor costs has been blown out of proportion, and HBO has both the capacity and motive to give the the show a budget increase of a few tens of millions for the final season(s) if necessary. Although rising actor costs would certainly be a factor, I don't think it will take precedence over doing the story justice.

EDIT: If they do end up going to 9 seasons, I think that there is still a chance that GRRM could finish first. The first half of ADoS would be spoiled by the show, but I think that he could still get the book out before April 2019, thus reaching the end before the show. That is assuming, of course, that he can get TWoW out at some point in 2015 or very early 2016.

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Filming a double-length final season and splitting it might be doable (The Sopranos and Oz did it), as that overcomes some of the problems. However, the issues there become ones of planning, writing and pre-production time, and the fact that production would be running on later episodes whilst earlier ones are being edited and airing. It might be doable, but it might also require a splitting of time and resources that is not overall practical.

If HBO doesn't greenlight the eighth season, I think this will be the only option to conclude the series in a way it deserves. Even if ADwD is done by the end of S5, I just don't see 20 episodes being enough to adapt the behemoths that will be TWoW and ADoS.

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I agree that seven seasons is the likeliest scenario. Eight is possible. Nine is a very remote option.



In any case, having "A Dream of Spring" before April 2017 or even April 2018 seems like a very implausible preposition. Even more delusional is to think that HBO will "wait" for the books. If anything, HBO's owners are interested in overcoming the books! Being able to promote a season as "new for television" or "be the first to know about the fate of Westeros" will surely bring in more viewers and notoriety.



The question is no longer "if", but "when".



As for myself, I curse the the day GRRM sold the TV rights.

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The 'waiting' option is out because of GoT's very success. I can imagine being the head of HBO called into a meeting with the Time Warner board and being asked why the hell GoT has gone off the air for a season and lost them a year's revenue from foreign sales and DVD/BR sales, and being told, "To give the author an extra year to finish the books." They'd (metaphorically) hang him on the spot.



As for myself, I curse the the day GRRM sold the TV rights.


To be fair, it's easy to say that with hindsight. Back in early 2006 when GRRM thought it'd take a few months to complete ADWD, and that the last two books would follow at 3-year intervals, it probably seemed like a very safe move to sell the rights. But I agree that it's very implausible that ADoS will make it out ahead of the TV show. Not completely impossible, but not far off. If anything, it sounds more like it's going to be a photo finish whether GRRM or the TV show gets to TWoW material first.


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I think that ADOS will be released in the same year the show finishes. I reckon TWOW will be the longer of the two final books which means hopefully TWOW can be released in 2015 and then seasons 6 and 7 can both cover it, with S8 covering ADOS. That sounds reasonable to me.


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IF the show is indeed 7 seasons, then AFFC/ADWD will be slashed to pieces and Season 5 will delve heavily in TWoW, Season 6 being mixed in with ADoS and the final season ending the story.

With that said, 8 seasons will happen. That's the way D&D arched the show, and I highly doubt they did that without at least some kind of nod from the higher ups. Besides GoT is the biggest thing HBO has going, it's a gold mine.

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I'd say that, barring some kind of unforeseen occurrence, the show will almost certainly get eight seasons. Even with the actors and actresses from the first season being able to re-negotiate their contract. This show isn't a major time commitment, and - for many of these actors - has launched their career. By all accounts, everyone seems to greatly enjoy being involved with the production, as well.



From a business stand-point, I think HBO has learned some lessons about cancelling their shows without providing a proper ending, for the most part. They've been very good about giving their shows closure, and collaborating with the creative talent to let them know that they need to wrap things up (or the opposite, as I'm imagining is the case with Boardwalk Empire, since Winter, Scorsese, Whalburgh, Jagger, and the execs at HBO all seem eager to move forward with the late 1970's rock & roll drama series that's set to star Bobby Cannavale). The only shows that have been outright cancelled since Game of Thrones started are Enlightened (which couldn't really have asked for a better ending, to be honest), Family Tree (which felt somewhat like a complete journey for the main character, and also works well as a series ending), The Life & Times of Tim (which HBO had actually cancelled previously, but then brought back for another season), and Luck (which was actually green-lit for a second season, but was cancelled following the third accidental death of a horse involved with the production). Every other show has or will have a conclusion that was determined by the people running their respective shows.



Which bodes well for Game of Thrones, in my opinion. The short-term 'gain' of cancelling the show because some of the stars are asking for much higher salaries than they're currently making (hypothetically, though also likely) is heavily outweighed by having a full series that tells a complete story. It's better for their brand, it's better for all of the various talent that is involved with bringing this show to life (as HBO has a tendency to build working relationships with people who have worked for their network), it's better for the fans, and ultimately, it will be better for the bottom line.



A rushed for unsatisfying ending isn't going to suffice for this show, and I have to imagine that the people running HBO realize that. The following for this series is rabid, and alienating them (readers and non-readers alike) does their brand more damage than good. That's to say nothing of the fact that sales from the sure-to-be-forthcoming (either way) Game of Thrones: The Complete Series box sets will go a long way towards mitigating any increase in production costs because of cast salaries, especially in the scenario where they stick the landing.



I think HBO seasons is both the floor and the ceiling for this show, personally. Though, again, with the addendum that unforeseen circumstances could occur.


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The barriers against eight seasons are significant. Every actor still on the show since Season 1 will need to have their contract renegotiated and, given the success of the show, will likely be able to demand significant price hikes. If Emilia Clarke and Kit Harington's other non-GoT projects and movies are successful and they become more bankable movie stars, that price hike will likely become insurmountable. Eight seasons is only possible because the number of Season 1 castmembers still on the show by the time we get there will be relatively low. Nine is out because that's when all the Season 2 characters also get their contract renegotiations and the Season 1 actors will get further renegotiations (on a show like this, once the initial 6 years+1 year renewal option agreement expires, it switches to a season-by-season negotiation, which is how Friends ended with the main actors all on $1 million per episode each) and so on. It becomes insurmountably expensive.

Agreed. If the show remains as successful as it is right now (season 5 and the nightmare that is adapting AFFC/ADWD being the major factor here), we will probably see eight seasons. Nine is wishful thinking.

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I mean they even let the producers of the Wire finish the show their way, a show which made no money and won no awards, despite being amazing.

Sort of. After Season 3 had not done as well as they'd hoped, HBO and Simon entered protracted negotiations which involved cancelling a planned spin-off show focusing on Carcetti as mayor and agreed that they could have 23 episodes to finish the series. When Season 4 went long (to cover the same storyline as the planned spin-off show), that left them only with 10 episodes to finish the series and HBO would categorically not give them any more episodes (though, after some arm-wringing, they did agree to make the finale half an hour longer than normal).

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I think you guys are right that Season 5 will bleed into TWoW, but I still wonder what sacrifices they'll make to get there. There are just so many parallel storylines in AFfC / ADwD. My gut tells me they'll cut most of the Ironborn and Dorne storylines, but still keep Victarion somehow. I could see them drastically re-writing Tyrion's storyline too so he gets to Meereen much faster. Hell, Jorah is seen standing next to Dany when she's holding court so maybe he doesn't even get exiled.


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There are just so many parallel storylines in AFfC / ADwD. My gut tells me they'll cut most of the Ironborn and Dorne storylines, but still keep Victarion somehow. I could see them drastically re-writing Tyrion's storyline too so he gets to Meereen much faster. Hell, Jorah is seen standing next to Dany when she's holding court so maybe he doesn't even get exiled.

ADwD is a large book with a large number of important plotlines, though many of them were left unfinished.

AFfC, on the other hand, once you get past all the side trips and word count, is actually a pretty slim book. It has only 45 chapters, as opposed to 70 or more all the other books have. Furthermore, it's quite possible that the show will severely cut down on new material like Dorne and Iron Islands (that's 9 chapters total), and it's also likely travelogues likes Brienne and Sam will be condensed. Jaime chapters are candidates for consolidation as well. Additionally, some material will be present in Season 4, e.g. several Brienne chapters.

When all is said and done, I wouldn't be surprised if only half, or a bit more, of AFfC makes it to screen in Season 5.

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I think you guys are right that Season 5 will bleed into TWoW, but I still wonder what sacrifices they'll make to get there. There are just so many parallel storylines in AFfC / ADwD. My gut tells me they'll cut most of the Ironborn and Dorne storylines, but still keep Victarion somehow. I could see them drastically re-writing Tyrion's storyline too so he gets to Meereen much faster. Hell, Jorah is seen standing next to Dany when she's holding court so maybe he doesn't even get exiled.

There really isn't much of the Ironborn story to cut out. It just seems that way because it's several chapters, with Damphair's and Victarion's thoughts and backgrounds in details, Asha's visit to her family and talks with her uncle and Tristifor, introduction of minor characters etc. But when you look at it as a possible adaptation, you need just the Kingsmoot and 2-3 scenes setting it up (say, a conversation between Damphair (if he's not cut or his role drastically reduced) and Victarion, a conversation between YarAsha and Vic, Euron's arrival- and the Kingsmoot itself could be shortened by eliminating the colorful minor pretenders to the throne and just focusing on Victarion, YarAsha and Euron. This could all fit into one episode. Then in the next episode we learn that YarAsha has left the Islands, Euron sends Vic and Vic raids he Reach and decides to go and court Dany for himself. The rest would be Vic's ADWD stuff and probably some of the tWoW (whatever he ends up doing during the Battle of Fire, which I think is more likely to happen in season 5, out of the two big early tWoW battles). YarAsha's story after Kingsmoot will be tied to the North and Stannis. Euron would probably be a high profil guest star who's in just two episodes in season 5. Vic may be a regular, but he wouldn't be in more than 5-6 episodes.

I think that many of the regulars will be skipping 2-3 or more episodes, which is the preferable option to having a character skip an entire season. It's the easiest way to adapt AFFC/ADWD, which have lots of characters and locations, but many of the characters don't have an awful lot of storyline. For instance, delaying Dorne until season 6 would be awkward, since the audience would have just warmed up to Oberyn in season 4 and it would be wise to use their interest and introduce Dorne with a reaction to the death of a character they already know. But, the Dornish plot in both books also has very little material, and I wouldn't expect the Dorne to appear in more than 3, maybe 4 episodes.

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I don't think they even need to show the Kingsmoot: Yara hears about her father's death and Euron seizing the Seastone Chair and Victarion bowing to him. There is no Kingsmoot, it's a fait accompli and Yara decides to go and grab Theon and his claim as the only way to proceed. That puts off the need for an expensive location scene with tons of extras and allows them to hold back on introducing Euron and Victarion until later in Season 5. It also means there is no need to cast Aeron whatsoever.


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So I thought that considering I haven't seen a huge amount of logical predictions for the release of The Winds of Winter, only peoples opinions and best guesses, I would lay out a possible timeline for the publication of the final two books in comparison to the progress of the tv series.

Firstly I will assume a few things;

  1. The one assumption to rule them all: That GRRM will stay ahead of the tv series, or at the very least, is actively trying to stay ahead of the tv series (the latter by all accounts sounds to be the case).

Another assumption: The tv series will successfully span at least 8 seasons and run until the completion of the aSoIaF story-line/books.

And another: Each subsequent tv season (i.e. not including season 3 and 4 A Storm of Swords Part 1 & 2) will correspond approximately to the content of one book (although this is flexible, see later).

Also: GRRM will not separate his 2 further books geographically as in AFfC and ADwD i.e. both will have a continuous timeline.

So the complete, yet theoretical, timeline is as follows;

A Game of Thrones Game of Thrones Season 1 (2011)

A Clash of Kings Game of Thrones Season 2 (2012)

A Storm of Swords Part 1 Game of Thrones Season 3 (2013)

A Storm of Swords Part 2 Game of Thrones Season 4 (2014)

A Feast for Crows Part 1 + A Dance with Dragons Part 1 Game of Thrones Season 5 (2015)

A Feast for Crows Part 2 + A Dance with Dragons Part 2 Game of Thrones Season 6 (2016)

The Winds of Winter (NOT PUBLISHED YET) Game of Thrones Season 7 (2017)

A Dream of Spring (NOT PUBLISHED YET) Game of Thrones Season 8 (2018)

Ok cool.... so now what?

We know that each season of Game of Thrones is produced at the end of the year preceding when it airs (see the years above), or to put it more simply, it is made about 6 months before it goes to air. If we work backwards then that means, given the assumptions above etc., that....

A Dream of Spring will have to be published (or close) at the very latest by half-way through 2017, AND that...

The Winds of Winter will have to be published (or close) at the very latest by half-way through 2016!! ....BUT...

We also know that publishing ADoS only a year after TWoW is so outrageously impossible for GRRM to do you would have to be crazy to believe it. He needs at least 2 years between TWoW and ADoS (which even still is very optimistic given his track record), so...

TWoW will actually have to be published at the latest by half-way through 2015 to give him any chance to finish ADoS by half-way through 2017!! This in-turn would allow him to keep pace with the tv series. YAY!

Of course there are about a million other factors that could impact upon this time line.

I personally believe that only one season each for AFfC + ADoD Part 1, AFfC + ADoD Part 2, TWoW and ADoS is a conservative estimate. Especially considering that the last two books have been suggested to be the longest yet, and that the tv series split the similarly lengthy A Storm of Swords into roughly 2 seasons. Therefore Game of Thrones could easily be more than 8 seasons long, if it did go for longer than 8 seasons than that would give GRRM an extra year writing for every extra season depending on where the extra season is placed.

Also another possibility is that the series either has a break for a year (cue widespread panic, outrage, the end of the world etc.), which would also give GRRM an extra year. Or they could be very cheeky and delay the production and airing of a season by 6 months. If they moved back the production of say, Season 6, from late 2015 to early 2016 (when it should have been airing) and then aired it late 2016 instead, this would give GRRM an extra 6 months. They could even do this more than once.

Another consideration is the idea of ending it all with a movie (i'm not particularly a fan of this idea) which could give 8 (or 9) seasons plus a movie which would take extra time to produce (at least 2 years??), but I wont go into that here.

So here is hoping that old boy George will be able to get TWoW out to us by mid-2015 and ADoS to us by mid-2017 (although depending on the circumstances mid-2018 might also work). I may be getting ahead of myself but I think TWoW coming out in 2015 is do-able. I really hope so otherwise it doesn't look like there will be much hope of the novels concluding before the tv series catches up, which in all likelihood would suck.

Thoughts???

P.S. Apologies for the post being a novel in itself.

It looks good for the most part, but we are already starting to see pieces of adwd in the season 4 trailers especially Dany's story arc. Seeing as how she is such a popular character, the only thing I can think of is if they add extra content for her (which will probably make most book readers upset, and probably rightfully so) or they really reach and expand and elaborate heavily on her arc to draw it out.

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