[BOOK SPOILERS] Watching the show if it overpasses the books [Part 2]

[Mr Fixit]

I doubt that they'll use all of Bran's material this season. I expect all but the final episode will be his journey through the Haunted Forest. I'm certainly not expecting any TWOW material this season, and I still remain optimistic that Martin can stay ahead of the show.

For TWoW, quite likely. ADoS, however, is almost impossible.

[protar]

For TWoW, quite likely. ADoS, however, is almost impossible.

The hope is that writing the conclusion will be faster than writing the mid-late section of the plot. Of course I was hoping that that logic would apply to TWOW as well but to no avail. After all if he was back to his usual pace TWOW should have been out half a year ago. Still, I think there's hope that he's got the conclusion planned out to such a degree that it will be a faster write. 2017 isn't impossible and even if the show overpasses the books I'll be content with the final book and the final season coming out in the same year.

Maybe I'm in denial, but I just can't stomach the idea of the series' ending being in the hands of D+D.

[franko99]

^ Certainly not impossible, but this is George Martin we're talking about, I think his "gardener aproach" is biting him in the ass now. He opened so many new plot and create so many new characters that he's struggling to have a proper ending now, I' sure he always had an "ending" for most of the main characters on his mind, but as the story progress it became harder and harder to get there.

[Colonel Green]

The hope is that writing the conclusion will be faster than writing the mid-late section of the plot. Of course I was hoping that that logic would apply to TWOW as well but to no avail. After all if he was back to his usual pace TWOW should have been out half a year ago. Still, I think there's hope that he's got the conclusion planned out to such a degree that it will be a faster write. 2017 isn't impossible and even if the show overpasses the books I'll be content with the final book and the final season coming out in the same year.

Maybe I'm in denial, but I just can't stomach the idea of the series' ending being in the hands of D+D.

George R. R. Martin has previously said that 500 manuscript pages a year is more or less his peak performance. ADOS is projected to be 1500 manuscript pages or so, per his past statements. So that's a minimum of three years to write it.

[protar]

George R. R. Martin has previously said that 500 manuscript pages a year is more or less his peak performance. ADOS is projected to be 1500 manuscript pages or so, per his past statements. So that's a minimum of three years to write it.

He got SOS out in two years which was over 1500 pages. So it's still possible. I think that TWOW is the real hurdle and after that he'll have to be content with a synchronised release. I think early-mid 2015 seems like a good bet for TWOW to me. I mean when he wasn't bogged down with stuff like the Meereenese knot, the POV split and the timeskip he was able to get a book out every other year. Even with his busier schedule we should still be looking at around 2 1/2 to 3 years. Given that he took (IIRC) an entire year off of writing after ADWD (a rather foolhardy decision if you ask me but whatever) we should definitely be looking at 1st or 2nd quarter 2015, or very optimistically 4th quarter 2014.

[Colonel Green]

He got SOS out in two years which was over 1500 pages.

He didn't write the entire thing from scratch between 1998 and 2000 -- he'd been working on the entire first three books beginning in 1991.

I do think he can get TWOW out by some time in 2015, but ADOS by 2017 is impossible.

[Mr Fixit]

He got SOS out in two years which was over 1500 pages. .

Technically. However, a large chunk of ASoS had already been finished by the time ACoK was published.

we should definitely be looking at 1st or 2nd quarter 2015, or very optimistically 4th quarter 2014

Let's hope. But it's worth keeping in mind that ill-boding recent tweet from Martin's European editor on how TWoW is "years away". Even if she was exaggerating, in order for the book to be published in early 2015, it would have to be written and submitted by the end of this year, if not sooner.

And let's say Martin becomes a miracle worker and publishes the book in early 2015. He'll have his contractually obliging tour promoting the book that'll take a few months. That leaves him with a year and a half at the very most to complete ADoS. Nearly impossible.

[Werthead]

Yeah, a large amount of ASoS was done as part of the writing for ACoK. I think he specifically mentioned that Tyrion's entire ASoS storyline, right up to his very last chapter, was written in at least draft before ACoK was even published (in October 1998), as was other material. IIRC, there was also a more of a traditional delay between the completion of ACoK and its publication than there was for ASoS, during which time he wrote more of ASoS.

ASoS in total seems to have taken 3 years or so to write in total, once you unentangle its writing from the latter part of ACoK. To get ADoS out after TWoW and ahead of the TV show, even assuming TWoW hits in late 2015, he'd need to write more than twice as fast as he wrote ASoS! :stunned:

[FalseKnight]

I doubt that they'll use all of Bran's material this season. I expect all but the final episode will be his journey through the Haunted Forest. I'm certainly not expecting any TWOW material this season, and I still remain optimistic that Martin can stay ahead of the show.

NO, NO MORE BLOATED TRAVELOGUES! That's why they need to compress Feast/Dance into 1.5-ish seasons.

[protar]

If three years was the actual total for SOS than that's worrisome for TWOW let alone ADOS. That writing pace would potentially push TWOW as far as 2016. And if that happens well...game over man. Game over. If only he could write whilst doing promotional events and stuff, but I seem to remember hearing he was only comfortable working at home.

[Werthead]

One of the problems is that GRRM uses an ancient DOS machine to write on. In theory he could get a laptop with DOSBox and WordStar on it, but I have no idea how the hell you'd transfer the existing files over. Plus he's made it clear he only writes in his office, at home, with his notes and references immediately to hand.

3 years-per-book is GRRM's average throughout the entire series, with only ADWD as an outlier: AFFC took 5 years to come out, but he spent between 1 and 2 of those years faffing with a completely different version of Book 4 he later junked and started again from scratch. So even AFFC-as-we-read-it 'only' took 3-3.5 years to write. That's why there was a fair bit of hope that, ADWD and Meerenese Knots exempted, he should be able to return to between 3 and 4 years for TWoW. It looks like it'll come in at a bit more than that (January 2016, for example, would be 4.5 years, compared to ADWD's just-under 6 years), though hopefully not a lot more.

[Mr Fixit]

game over man. Game over.

How do I get out of this chickenshit outfit? :laugh:

[Colonel Green]

And let's say Martin becomes a miracle worker and publishes the book in early 2015. He'll have his contractually obliging tour promoting the book that'll take a few months.

Not that this would make a big difference, but I suspect that the publisher would let GRRM out of the book tour if he said he wanted to get started on ADOS immediately. The books no longer need that kind of promotion, and it's in the publisher's interest to get the final book out as soon as possible.

[Mr Fixit]

Not that this would make a big difference, but I suspect that the publisher would let GRRM out of the book tour if he said he wanted to get started on ADOS immediately. The books no longer need that kind of promotion, and it's in the publisher's interest to get the final book out as soon as possible.

Every publishing house is concerned about its year-to-year bottom line. Famous or no, a promotion tour that includes the author will improve sales, that's a given. I'm not so sure Martin's publishers would dispense with it. On the other hand, it *is* in their best interest to publish the whole series while there's still buzz from the TV show to help drive the sales.

[MegaAIP]

^ Certainly not impossible, but this is George Martin we're talking about, I think his "gardener aproach" is biting him in the ass now. He opened so many new plot and create so many new characters that he's struggling to have a proper ending now, I' sure he always had an "ending" for most of the main characters on his mind, but as the story progress it became harder and harder to get there.

I see the bigger problem with dance, it just didn't go as far as it needed and a lot was pushed back to winds

[Mr Fixit]

I see the bigger problem with dance, it just didn't go as far as it needed and a lot was pushed back to winds

This is why some think that the series would in the end have 8 books. Simple fact is that ADwD didn't cover nearly as much as Martin had hoped. For example, he initially planned Dany's penultimate ADwD chapter as her first, meaning that Dance encompassed only TWO of the originally planned chapters! And since Tyrion, Victarion, Aegon, and others have to be in sync with Dany's material, it's easy to see there's A LOT missing.

[Newstar]

game over man. Game over

:D I can't help but remember that scene:

[ASOIAF fan 1]: Well, that's great. That's just fucking great, man. Now what the fuck are we supposed to do? We're in some real pretty shit now, man.

[unsullied]: Are you finished?

[ASOIAF fan 2]: Guess we're not gonna make it, are we?

[GRRM]: I'm sorry, [fandom].

[ASOIAF fan 2]: Don't be sorry, it wasn't your fault.

[ASOIAF fan 1]: That's it, man. Game over, man. GAME OVER. What the fuck are we supposed to do now, huh, what are we gonna do?

[protar]

:D I can't help but remember that scene:

[ASOIAF fan 1]: Well, that's great. That's just fucking great, man. Now what the fuck are we supposed to do? We're in some real pretty shit now, man.

[unsullied]: Are you finished?

[ASOIAF fan 2]: Guess we're not gonna make it, are we?

[GRRM]: I'm sorry, [fandom].

[ASOIAF fan 2]: Don't be sorry, it wasn't your fault.

[ASOIAF fan 1]: That's it, man. Game over, man. GAME OVER. What the fuck are we supposed to do now, huh, what are we gonna do?

:lol: Oh dear. I've made a reference to a film I haven't seen in years and now people are quoting it back at me! :p

[Faint]

I think there is a far greater possibility that either The Winds of Winter is released in 2017 or that there will be a eight book, or both, then Martin finishing within six months of the final episode of the television series.

[protar]

I think there is a far greater possibility that either The Winds of Winter is released in 2017 or that there will be a eight book, or both, then Martin finishing within six months of the final episode of the television series.

If there is an 8th book, there's no way that Martin can finish the books within six months of the series finale. Even assuming TWOW in 2015, the 7th book would probably be 2017/18 and the 8th 2020/21 - up to three years after the show's conclusion. Let's hope that doesn't happen. I don't want to swear off the internet for 3 years.