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Untangling Cersei's Small Council


Mithras

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Arianne I (TWoW)

A new pirate king has set up on Torturer’s Deep. The Lord of the Waters, he styles himself. This one has real warships, three-deckers, monstrous large.

Those warships and Lord of the Waters make almost 100% sure that this one is Aurane Waters.

Oh right I'd forgotten about that, thanks :)

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He is lurking in Stepstones as a pirate king and calls himself Lord of the Waters (Lord Velaryon is called Lord of the Tides). Aurane always had betrayal in mind. The fact that he rejected the survivors of royal fleet in Blackwater and took his own young men on the newly built ships prove that.

I'm afraid I'm gonna have to report your post, as discussion of piracy is against board rules.

Not but seriously that should probably be in spoiler tags.

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I'm inclined to consider Orton Merryweather another one of the 'yes men' contingent of Cersei's council. If he was an active spy, he wouldn't have packed up and bailed the second things became hot and Cersei was imprisoned, especially not if he was part of the Aegon conspiracy and had Varys' implicit protection and aid. It's certainly possible/likely that Taena informed on Cersei to others (though who exactly is a mystery yet). House Merryweather is smaller and weaker than it once was, so it's not as though returning to Longtable would have done them much good in rallying support compared to their potential impact in the capital.



In regards to Taena, I count three prospective patrons. Varys for a start, due to her pointing out to Cersei about the Queen of Thorns and her old Highgarden coins at such a convenient time, Margery, as she started in her company and 'defected' to Cersei, and lastly Doran, as she may have been privy to Balon Swann's 'second' mission. It's possible she was working all three angles, and Cersei as well, and bailed from King's Landing when things started becoming too hot to handle.



As well, I'd say that Qyburn's true loyalty is to his -work-. He tells Cersei what she wants to hear, he tells her what she needs to hear in a way that lets her disregard it at her pleasure, and he diligently goes about his own business. That sounds like Master of Whispers is his day-job while he works on his Franken-Gregor project.


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“I know all this.” Jaime had examined Rugen’s cell, and Ser Addam’s gold cloaks had examined it again.

“Aye, Your Grace,” said Qyburn, “but did you know that under that stinking chamber pot was a loose stone, which opened on a small hollow? The sort of place where a man might hide valuables that he did not wish to be discovered?”

“Valuables?” This was new. “Coin, you mean?” She had suspected all along that Tyrion had somehow bought this gaoler.

“Beyond a doubt. To be sure, the hole was empty when I found it. No doubt Rugen took his ill-gotten treasure with him when he fled. But as I crouched over the hole with my torch, I saw something glitter, so I scratched in the dirt until I dug it out.” Qyburn opened his palm. “A gold coin.”

Gold, yes, but the moment Cersei took it she could tell that it was wrong. Too small, she thought, too thin. The coin was old and worn. On one side was a king’s face in profile, on the other side the imprint of a hand. “This is no dragon,” she said.

“No,” Qyburn agreed. “It dates from before the Conquest, Your Grace. The king is Garth the Twelfth, and the hand is the sigil of House Gardener.”

Although Jaime and the gold cloaks searched Rugen’s chamber half a dozen times, Qyburn come up with that old Gardener coin. Cersei immediately suspects of Tyrell conspiracy but she is again fooled by Qyburn. He could never have found that coin unless he had put it himself. Let us proceed with what else we could dig out from that coin.

Jaime could not help but note the way the Myrish woman moved her hips as she walked. Every step is a seduction. When the door closed behind her, he cleared his throat and said, “First these Kettleblacks, then Qyburn, now her. It’s a queer menagerie you are keeping these days, sweet sister.”

“Margaery is not half so clever as she thinks. She has no notion what a sweet serpent she has in that Myrish slut. I use Taena to feed the little queen what I want her to know. Some of it is even true.” Cersei’s eyes were bright with mischief. “And Taena tells me everything Maid Margaery is doing.”

“Does she? How much do you know about this woman?”

“I know she is a mother, with a young son that she wants to rise high in this world. She will do whatever is required to see that he does. Mothers are all the same. Lady Merryweather may be a serpent, but she is far from stupid. She knows I can do more for her than Margaery, so she makes herself useful to me. You would be surprised at all the interesting things she’s told me.”

“What sorts of things?”

Cersei sat beneath the window. “Did you know that the Queen of Thorns keeps a chest of coins in her wheelhouse? Old gold from before the Conquest.”

Taena is working as a double agent and Cersei foolishly feels safe based on her lame reasoning. This makes me think that Taena is neither working for Cersei nor Margaery.

Taena informs Cersei about that chest of old Gardener coins Olenna has. It is not known that whether Cersei told her the coin Qyburn found. I think it is more likely that she kept that to herself. This means Qyburn and Taena are working together. And Jaime’s bolded sentence is a good foreshadowing because we know that Kettleblacks are the agents of LF. That makes Qyburn and Taena agents too.

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Nice research.



I think Merrywhether is Team Aegon. Aerys exiled his father to Myr, and Varys has a custom of recruting exilees (JonCon, Barristan, Tyrion). And there's the thing about the GC having friends in the Reach, as the OP said



As for Aurane, he's NOT Team Lannister,Tyrell or Stannis. If he was on the Tyrell side, he would have taken the stolen fleet to the Reach to fight the ironborn. But instead he is now working as a pirate lord in the Stepstones, where the GC is setting up base, coincidentally. So I don't know if he was loyal to Varys from the start or if he decided to switch sides recently, but I think it's the latter



As for Qyburn, I think he's being subtly manipulated by Varys. Maybe Varys' spies feed Qyburn only the information (or misinformation) that Varys wants


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Aurane had been hinting at his need for a seat; his lordship was only an empty honor without one. He had his eye on Dragonstone, Cersei knew, but there he aimed too high. Rosby would be more suitable to his birth and station.



Aurane Waters wants to have Dragonstone. I think his only thought is to keep it until Dany shows up. Then he can yield Dragonstone to her and gain great favor.


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Aurane had been hinting at his need for a seat; his lordship was only an empty honor without one. He had his eye on Dragonstone, Cersei knew, but there he aimed too high. Rosby would be more suitable to his birth and station.

Aurane Waters wants to have Dragonstone. I think his only thought is to keep it until Dany shows up. Then he can yield Dragonstone to her and gain great favor.

I don't think Aurane gives a shit about Dany. Just like everyone else he assumes she isn't coming because she became queen of a City in far-away- Essos. And while Velaryon loyalty to House Targaryen is a theme that probably can come into fruition later, I think it's more likley that out Pirate King join up with Aegon (the Targ that actuall is in Westeros). Though he might ask for Dragonstone or Driftmark as his prize. All in all he's greedy and won't back anyone for free.

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Just like everyone else he assumes she isn't coming because she became queen of a City in far-away- Essos.

Can you name such people? As far as I know, no one in Westeros can assume that unless they read the Dany POV chapters like us.

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Can you name such people? As far as I know, no one in Westeros can assume that unless they read the Dany POV chapters like us.

Mace Tyrell, but Kevan corrects him.

Grand Maester Pycelle bobbed his head. “Dragons. These same stories have reached Oldtown. Too many to discount. A silver-haired queen with three dragons.” “At the far end of the world,” said Mace Tyrell. “Queen of Slaver’s Bay, aye. She is welcome to it.”

“On that we can agree,” Ser Kevan said, “but the girl is of the blood of Aegon the Conqueror, and I do not think she will be content to remain in Meereen forever.

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I think Qyburn, both Merryweathers and Aurane Waters are all on team (F)Aegon and/or are working under the direction of Varys. They're all probably being coached, by Varys off-page, on how to manipulate Cersei because it's kind of hard to believe, even w/ all of Cersei's flaws, that these individuals would know how to manipulate her as well as they do having only known her for as a short a period as they have.

I don't think Qyburn is in it merely for "the love of science." If he wanted bodies he could have stayed w/ Roose who would have never questioned his peculiarities and would have likely welcomed his service. Roose's decision to let Qyburn return to King's Landing on the pretext that he wanted to have Tywin force the Citadel to give him back his chain, was on Roose's part a courtesy and reward of sorts, he could have as easily denied him the opportunity. And when Qyburn gets to King's Landing, as far as we know, he never petitions to have his chain returned. Instead he mocks Pycelle and Citadel and relishes in the fact that he doesn't have to adhere to their norms. It's clear to me from this that Qyburn wanted to get to King's Landing for reasons other than those he articulated to Roose, and w/ no way of knowing that such a move would improve his current situation w/ regard to access to "test subject" i don't think that explains his motives either. Considering his actions since arriving in King's Landing it seems like his intention was to get to there and do some pretty nefarious shit, like meet up w/ Varys and plot the down fall the powers that be and the restoration of the Targ's/Balckfyres. He shows up and hangs out for about 20 days w/ free movement throughout the Red Keep, and on the morning of Tywin's assassination he's just milling about the tower of the hand, ready to be of service. Really? He just happens to find the Gold Coin and explain it's origins perfectly dovetailing w/ the information provided by Tenna that links Lady Olenna to Tyrion's escape and Tywin's murder. Really? I definitely think he's a part of the game and not just a scientist looking for a good research position where he can keep his head down and commit himself to his studies.

There is a lot more to Qyburn than meets the eye at first glance, probably because he represents the banality of evil - he's just a fatherly/grandfatherly torturer/necromancer, the Mr. Rogers of the dark arts. For instance there are some strange parallels between how he speaks of Robert Strong and how the High Sparrow speaks of the Warrior. In AFoC (Cersei VI) when Cersei discusses Maegor's Laws w/ the High sparrow he speaks of the Warrior being reborn to cleanse the realm of evil. In ADwD (Cersei II) when introducing Robert Strong, who is fully garbed in symbols of the faith, Qyburn informs Cersei that he has taken a vow of silence until her enemies are dead and evil is driven from the realm. Before Robert Strong was introduced Cersei and Qyburn discuss the need of a champion, she asks for a champion more galant than Loras Tyrell to which Qyburn replies that the champion he had in mind was not quite so galant but that he was x10 devote (i.e. most devout). All of this pious imagery is really strange for someone who's presumably raising the dead. At the very least his flare for religious symbolism seems to hint at there being more to him than would otherwise appear.

I don't think Orton Merryweather is the dumb yes-man he's made out to be. He actively pursued Cersei' down fall by encouraging some of her dumbest moves knowing full well how stupid they were. I would not be surprised in the slightest if he and his wife were working together. I also wouldn't be surprised if He and Aurane Waters also colluded together. They were the primary advocates for building and launching the stolen fleet. The discussion to build a new fleet begins at Aurane's suggestion. In response Merryweather suggestion an alliance w/ the Ironborn. Which is an obvious non-starter for the hyper-paranoid Cersei who is wary of any alliance - particularly w/ the fickle Ironborn. And why would a lord from the Reach suggest an alliance w/ the Ironborn as a means of gaining sea power instead of suggesting the mobilization of the Redwyne Fleet. I think the intent behind the suggestion of alliance w/ the Ironborn is to indicate that alliance is fraught and uncertain endeavor feeding into Cersei's paranoia. Merryweather must know of Cersei's dislike of the Tyrells and by extension her distrust of the Redwynes (considering the public manner in which Cersei has moved to purge the small council of Tyrells). Mentioning the existence of another hostile fleet, w/ whom only a tense alliance could be made, Merryweather only furthers Cersei's paranoia and her need for control over her own fleet. And as the OP indicates he knows the perils of defaulting the IBoB, he's no Harrys Swyft. And as i noted above it was Lord Orton who backed Aurane's request to launch the drummonds after Margaery was arrested. And there's this:

From the Arianne TWoW sample chapter it seems as though Aurane "Lord of the Waters" Waters, has let Gold Company pass through the Stepstones without attacking them:

We have heard the same tales here that you have heard at Sunspear," Lady Nymella told them as her serving man poured the wine. "Sellswords landing on Cape Wrath, castles under siege or being taken, crops seized or burned. Where these men come from and who they are, no one is certain."

"Pirates and adventurers, we heard at first," said Valena. "Then it was supposed to be the Golden Company. Now it's said to be Jon Connington, the Mad King's Hand, come back from the grave to reclaim his birthright. Whoever it is, Griffin's Roost has fallen to them. Rain House, Crow's Nest, Mistwood, even Greenstone on its island. All taken."
Arianne's thoughts went at once to her sweet Spotted Slyva. "Who would want Greenstone? Was there a battle?"
"Not as we have heard, but all the tales are garbled."
"Tarth has fallen too, some fisherfolk will tell you," said Valena. "These sellswords now hold most of Cape Wrath and half the Stepstones. We hear talk of elephants in the rainwood."
"Elephants?" Arianne did not know what to think of that. "Are you certain? Not dragons?"
"Elephants," Lady Nymella said firmly.

"And krakens off the Broken Arm, pulling under crippled galleys," said Valena. "The blood draws them to the surface, our maester claims. There are bodies in the water. A few have washed up on our shores. And that's not half of it. A new pirate king has set up on Torturer's Deep. The Lord of the Waters, he styles himself. This one has real warships, three-deckers, monstrous large. You were wise not to come by sea. Since the Redwyne fleet passed through the Stepstones, those waters are crawling with strange sails, all the way north to the Straights of Tarth and Shipbreaker's Bay. Myrmen, Volantenes, Lyseni, even reavers from the Iron Islands. Some have entered the Sea of Dorne to land men on the south shore of Cape Wrath. We found a good fast ship for you, as your father commanded, but even so... be careful."

So the "sellswords" hold most of Cape Wrath and half of the Stepstones. This means the GC made it through the Stepstones and has even taken hold of half the Stepstone islands. There doesn't seem to be any indication from JonCon's last ADwD PoV or from Kevan's epilogue that the GC had any problem w/ Aurane who has seemingly set himself up as a pirate lord. From this i think we can assume that he's probably down w/ (F)Aegon/GC.

At the end of ASoS Littlefinger explains to Sansa a little something about King's Landing how the game is played:

Lord Petyr loosened a seed with the point of his dagger. “You must miss your father terribly, I know. Lord Eddard was a brave man, honest and loyal... but quite a hopeless player.” He brought the seed to his mouth with the knife. “In King’s Landing, there are two sorts of people. The players and the pieces.”

“And I was a piece?” She dreaded the answer.

“Yes, but don’t let that trouble you. You’re still half a child. Every man’s a piece to start with, and every maid as well. Even some who think they are players.” He ate another seed. “Cersei, for one. She thinks herself sly, but in truth she is utterly predictable. Her strength rests on her beauty, birth, and riches. Only the first of those is truly her own, and it will soon desert her. I pity her then. She wants power, but has no notion what to do with it when she gets it. Everyone wants something, Alayne. And when you know what a man wants you know who he is, and how to move him.”

In AFoC we see this play out as Cersei is manipulated by other "pieces," however none of them are "players" in their own right. In the epilogue to ADwD we finally see one of the "players" return when Varys remerges from hiding to stop Kevan from fixing all the problems he had created through his manipulation various "pieces" in AFoC.

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First off, great OP :cheers: and I certainly agree that Merryweather is one of the friends in the Reach.

I think he probably is working in collaboration with his wife who is an agent for everyone, making sure they are safe while making sure no one is too close of an ally so when the GC lands they can get support (I think she has to be the one who informed Doran of the Trystane plot).

I do not think Aurane is on team Dany though, he is on team Aurane.

snip

Great analysis on Qyburn!

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Although Jaime and the gold cloaks searched Rugens chamber half a dozen times, Qyburn come up with that old Gardener coin. Cersei immediately suspects of Tyrell conspiracy but she is again fooled by Qyburn. He could never have found that coin unless he had put it himself. Let us proceed with what else we could dig out from that coin.

Taena is working as a double agent and Cersei foolishly feels safe based on her lame reasoning. This makes me think that Taena is neither working for Cersei nor Margaery.

Taena informs Cersei about that chest of old Gardener coins Olenna has. It is not known that whether Cersei told her the coin Qyburn found. I think it is more likely that she kept that to herself. This means Qyburn and Taena are working together. And Jaimes bolded sentence is a good foreshadowing because we know that Kettleblacks are the agents of LF. That makes Qyburn and Taena agents too.

I don't think it means that T & Q must working together. And while I believe Taena is working for Team Blackfyre I'm not so sure Qyburn is. It's quite possible tha Varys is playing him and Qyburn doesn't even know it.
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[Why is Pycelle so loyal to the Lannisters?]


There´s backstory yet to be revealed, certainly, but if you asked Pycelle he would insist that he was acting in the best interests of the realm.



This is from a SSM. GRRM says there is a backstory about why Pycelle acts as such a loyal Lannister dog. Surely that must be a notion set by the conclave which was agreed to be in the best interests of the realm. Any ideas?


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I find Orton Merryweather very interesting, between him and Taena he seems to be more "transparent" but to what I'm not sure...


In Feast in the dinner which the Blue Bard is taken prisoner




Afterward they had baked apples with a sharp white cheese. Lady Taena savored every bite. Not so Orton Merryweather, whose round face remained blotched and pale from broth to cheese. He drank heavily and kept stealing glances at the singer.






"Lord Orton, summon my guards and take this creature to the dungeons."


Orton Merryweather's face was damp with fear. "This...oh, infamy...he dared seduce the queen?"




He keeps stealing glances at the singer, but why? pity that he had to be used as a pawn, Taena was already aware of Cersei's plan to "arrest" him so that could be it, but could this be the first taste of him believing that they are in over their heads in the GOT

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The assassination attempt sounds like Cersei, but do we really have any evidence of its existance?

For all we know, Doran´s friend at court is no other tha Varys himself trying to get Doran to rebel and join Aegon ASAP.

Not sure if relevant, but in the season 4 trailer we have a scene between Varys and the Red Viper.

considring the assasins sound like shagga and his gang IFind doubt full that cersei has something to do with it

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