Untangling Cersei's Small Council

[Mithras]

/nm

[ACVG]

do we know the circumstances of ortons return to westeros???

i've just finished re(x5) reading affc and dont remember if they mentioned that, perhaps varys organized his return... we already know he had many birds in essos that brought word of jorahs reports from agot

[Mithras]

“Prince Oberyn’s presence here is unfortunate. His brother is a cautious man, a reasoned man, subtle, deliberate, even indolent to a degree. He is a man who weighs the consequences of every word and every action.”

“Have you attended to that little task I set you?”

“I have, Your Grace. I am sorry that it took so long. Such a large head. It took the beetles many hours to clean the flesh. By way of pardon, I have lined a box of ebony and silver with felt, to make a fitting presentation for the skull.”

“A cloth sack would serve as well. Prince Doran wants his head. He won’t give a fig what sort of box it comes in.”

“Dorne still has friends at court. Friends who tell us things we were not meant to know.”

As a rule of thumb, what Cersei ignores in her folly should be highly important. Qyburn took initiative and sent Gregor’s skull in a special box to make a fitting presentation. Doran learned the plan to kill Trystane through his friend at court just after receiving Gregor’s head. All these look not much suspicious but if we recall the secret message sent by Lysa to Cat in AGoT, we can really suspect a secret message had been embedded to the box made by Qyburn.

The maester waited until the door had closed behind him before he spoke. “My lord,” he said to Ned, “pardon for disturbing your rest. I have been left a message.”

Ned looked irritated. “Been left? By whom? Has there been a rider? I was not told.”

“There was no rider, my lord. Only a carved wooden box, left on a table in my observatory while I napped. My servants saw no one, but it must have been brought by someone in the king’s party. We have had no other visitors from the south.”

“A wooden box, you say?” Catelyn said.

“Inside was a fine new lens for the observatory, from Myr by the look of it. The lenscrafters of Myr are without equal.”

Ned frowned. He had little patience for this sort of thing, Catelyn knew. “A lens,” he said. “What has that to do with me?”

“I asked the same question,” Maester Luwin said. “Clearly there was more to this than the seeming.”

Under the heavy weight of her furs, Catelyn shivered. “A lens is an instrument to help us see.”

“Indeed it is.” He fingered the collar of his order; a heavy chain worn tight around the neck beneath his robe, each link forged from a different metal.

Catelyn could feel dread stirring inside her once again. “What is it that they would have us see more clearly?”

“The very thing I asked myself.” Maester Luwin drew a tightly rolled paper out of his sleeve. “I found the true message concealed within a false bottom when I dismantled the box the lens had come in, but it is not for my eyes.”

Ned held out his hand. “Let me have it, then.”

Luwin did not stir. “Pardons, my lord. The message is not for you either. It is marked for the eyes of the Lady Catelyn, and her alone. May I approach?”

Catelyn nodded, not trusting to speak. The maester placed the paper on the table beside the bed. It was sealed with a small blob of blue wax. Luwin bowed and began to retreat.

[Mithras]

Second:

I always felt Qyburn was loyal to himself only - and his "research" specifically.

He's a "mad scientist" kinda guy, and Cersei is most likely the closest to a sympathetic patron he's had since getting kicked out of the Citadel.

You do make a good point that Qyburn gives bad advice regarding the Freys, but it's possible that it's simply bad advice because he doesn't know/care too much about the implications.

In the second instance he's fulfilling his role as Master of Whisperers, something he's much less capable at than his predecessor Varys - this could easily account for the level of "half-truths", a practice Varys often used for his own purposes - it's likely that some of Qyburn's sources are still in Varys' pocket after all. In the end it doesn't matter: Cersei dismisses it all (because she's nowhere near the capable ruler she considers herself to be).

Very nice thread, but I do not believe Qyburn actually works for anybody. He's just using Cersei as a means to conduct his Dr. Frankenstein-like-experiments, thus he merely agrees with her on most things (perhaps even knowing that they are stupid) to stay in her good graces.

Yeah. This is why I think he's only half loyal to her.

He's a smart man, but with little power in actuality.

I can't agree with this "mad scientist working for his own ends" opinion. If his studies were his only priorities, he could have sticked to Bolton and never come to KL. The very reason he came to KL and stayed there looks suspicious.

“I am sending Qyburn with you, to look after you on the way to King’s Landing,” Roose Bolton said on the morn of their departure. “He has a fond hope that your father will force the Citadel to give him back his chain, in gratitude.”

For a scientist who wishes nothing but to conduct his experiments, he should have tried hard to keep Cersei in power because she is the only fool who can give permission to Qyburn to carry on dark studies. Revelation of such a thing can easily destroy the credibility of the ruler who gave permission to it. I tried to prove in the OP that Qyburn does not work for Team Lannister. So there is an incostintency here. Lannisters and Tyrells are doomed which can be seen by a man with eyes to see. Qyburn is not dumb enough to tie his fate to a doomed cause.

[Waylin Stark]

Good analysis. I enjoyed this read.

Basically, Cersei tried filling her council with incompetant loyalists, but they are more of cunning spies.

I think Qyburn is working for Varys, though it's probable he's working for Roose.

[Queen Alienor]

Nice OP!

I never paid to much attention to Merrywether, to be honest, but I agree he seems suspicious, especially when he applauds Cerseis decision not to pay her debts to the Iron Bank of Bravoos. I mean, even Jon Snow realized that that decision might just have brought Stannis the IT, and he really isn't to much into southron politcs or the free cities. Merrywether has lived there.

I'm on the team that Qyborn works for his studies and himself, but nobody else.

[Waylin Stark]

I'm on the team that Qyborn works for his studies and himself, but nobody else.

I thought about that too, but surely Qyburn is smart enough to realise he needs a patron who is going to help fund his twisted research, and if Cersei is kicked out, he'll be helpless and the new Regent/Hand could kick him out too.

[Anna Marzo]

Why doesn't anyone mention Lord Petyr Baelish?? I think he is a master in schemes and made it pretty clear he has spies in the capital making sure Cersei screw things up. And he also made clear that, in the moment Cersei becomes a nuisance, he can eliminate her. I think the Merryweathers are Littlefinger's spies (or at least Taena).

[Mithras]

Why doesn't anyone mention Lord Petyr Baelish?? I think he is a master in schemes and made it pretty clear he has spies in the capital making sure Cersei screw things up. And he also made clear that, in the moment Cersei becomes a nuisance, he can eliminate her. I think the Merryweathers are Littlefinger's spies (or at least Taena).

Kettleblacks are spying for LF. I think Taena is LF's pet.

[Petyr Patter]

Some well made points here. I originally believed "stupidity explains more than conspiracy," but you made a good argument for Merryweather being a destabilizing agent. I will say he fits the Varys/Mopat agent profile very well. As does Qyburn to a lesser degree. The profile (first seen with Jorah and confirmed with Tyrion) is one with a high birth, then exiled, and desperately wanting a way to regain all they lost.

Aurane Waters is a bastard. If I know anything about bastards, they all pretty much want the same thing, a chance to be a lord in truth. Preferably their father's seat, but really any chance at social advancement gets their attention. That's not to say they'd kill their trueborn siblings or betray their House, but it is what they want. I suspect Aurane Waters is playing his own game for the time being. He wanted the siege of Dragonstone conducted quickly as it opens up the possibility for him to be Lord of Dragonstone. There is precedence with Stannis being Lord of Dragonstone and Master of Ships. Of course, Cersei had no intention of giving him such a choice seat, but Waters didn't realize this as Cersei was already throwing honors and responsibilities his way.

“Prince Oberyn’s presence here is unfortunate. His brother is a cautious man, a reasoned man, subtle, deliberate, even indolent to a degree. He is a man who weighs the consequences of every word and every action.”

“Have you attended to that little task I set you?”

“I have, Your Grace. I am sorry that it took so long. Such a large head. It took the beetles many hours to clean the flesh. By way of pardon, I have lined a box of ebony and silver with felt, to make a fitting presentation for the skull.”

“A cloth sack would serve as well. Prince Doran wants his head. He won’t give a fig what sort of box it comes in.”

“Dorne still has friends at court. Friends who tell us things we were not meant to know.”

As a rule of thumb, what Cersei ignores in her folly should be highly important. Qyburn took initiative and sent Gregor’s skull in a special box to make a fitting presentation. Doran learned the plan to kill Trystane through his friend at court just after receiving Gregor’s head. All these look not much suspicious but if we recall the secret message sent by Lysa to Cat in AGoT, we can really suspect a secret message had been embedded to the box made by Qyburn.

The maester waited until the door had closed behind him before he spoke. “My lord,” he said to Ned, “pardon for disturbing your rest. I have been left a message.”

Ned looked irritated. “Been left? By whom? Has there been a rider? I was not told.”

“There was no rider, my lord. Only a carved wooden box, left on a table in my observatory while I napped. My servants saw no one, but it must have been brought by someone in the king’s party. We have had no other visitors from the south.”

“A wooden box, you say?” Catelyn said.

“Inside was a fine new lens for the observatory, from Myr by the look of it. The lenscrafters of Myr are without equal.”

Ned frowned. He had little patience for this sort of thing, Catelyn knew. “A lens,” he said. “What has that to do with me?”

“I asked the same question,” Maester Luwin said. “Clearly there was more to this than the seeming.”

Under the heavy weight of her furs, Catelyn shivered. “A lens is an instrument to help us see.”

“Indeed it is.” He fingered the collar of his order; a heavy chain worn tight around the neck beneath his robe, each link forged from a different metal.

Catelyn could feel dread stirring inside her once again. “What is it that they would have us see more clearly?”

“The very thing I asked myself.” Maester Luwin drew a tightly rolled paper out of his sleeve. “I found the true message concealed within a false bottom when I dismantled the box the lens had come in, but it is not for my eyes.”

Ned held out his hand. “Let me have it, then.”

Luwin did not stir. “Pardons, my lord. The message is not for you either. It is marked for the eyes of the Lady Catelyn, and her alone. May I approach?”

Catelyn nodded, not trusting to speak. The maester placed the paper on the table beside the bed. It was sealed with a small blob of blue wax. Luwin bowed and began to retreat.

Oooh, I got some spine tingles with this one. I'm not sure why there would be a connection between Qyburn, who made the box, and Dorne. Or, Littlefinger for that matter. Yet, fun theory.

Kettleblacks are spying for LF. I am not sure about Taena, she can be even a quadruple agent.

Indeed, we know the Kettleblacks are at this point very well placed and keeping Littlefinger informed. It is possible someone else is on the Council is feeding him events. Actually, didn't Martin say Varys and Littlefinger exchanged information when it suited them? Perhaps Littlefinger (through a Kettleblack) offered to continue the relationship with Qyburn. He uses his spy network to help keep Qyburn informed, and in exchange, Qyburn is his man inside the council.

[Hippocras]

Great OP, thanks.

One question: why do you rule out Aurane Waters working with Dorne? I found that curious. Granted, Doran pretended to be surprised about related news, but Doran is a rather secretive man who knows more than he lets on.

[Hippocras]

There is a thread on a proposed axis of stealth Littlefinger, Dorne and the Sparrows - you might find some of the things there to be relevant here. Qyburn and Taena Merryweather in particular.

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/104634-spoilers-littlefinger-dorne-and-the-sparrows/

[Hippocras]

I want to point out that Qyburn and Taena tag-teamed to lead Cersei to believe the Tyrells were involved with Tyrion's escape. They are two sides of the same team. There was never any actual evidence produced of any House Gardener coin, just Qyburn saying one was found and Taena seeming to back him up by saying Oleana keeps a trunk of them.

Both Littlefinger and Varys run MULTIPLE agents, and some of them even overlap and are actually working for both of them.

But in this case, I think they are part of the Littlefinger-Dorne axis.

[Mithras]

I will make two cases to show that Taena Merryweather is basically spying for LF. The structure is almost the same. Cersei/Jaime reflects on something and they recall LF making a jape which looks a bit like out of the place. But I take this as LF is pulling some strings in the events being discussed and Jaime/Cersei cannot see this. I feel like GRRM does this trick for other POVs too. Whenever they mention a character seemingly a little out of place, I pay more attention and see whether there is a hidden thing related to that character in that chapter. Anyway, let us start with the first part.

1st Part

“He was my father’s ward. We grew up together in Riverrun. I thought of him as a brother, but his feelings for me were… more than brotherly. When it was announced that I was to wed Brandon Stark, Petyr challenged for the right to my hand. It was madness. Brandon was twenty, Petyr scarcely fifteen. I had to beg Brandon to spare Petyr’s life. He let him off with a scar. Afterward my father sent him away. I have not seen him since.”

Littlefinger carries the scar of his duel with Brandon, as we learn from Cat.

“Tell me, Alayne—which is more dangerous, the dagger brandished by an enemy, or the hidden one pressed to your back by someone you never even see?”

“The hidden dagger.”

“There’s a clever girl.” He smiled, his thin lips bright red from the pomegranate seeds. “When the Imp sent off her guards, the queen had Ser Lancel hire sellswords for her. Lancel found her the Kettleblacks, which delighted your little lord husband, since the lads were in his pay through his man Bronn.” He chuckled. “But it was me who told Oswell to get his sons to King’s Landing when I learned that Bronn was looking for swords. Three hidden daggers, Alayne, now perfectly placed.”

“So one of the Kettleblacks put the poison in Joff’s cup?” Ser Osmund had been near the king all night, she remembered.

“Did I say that?” Lord Petyr cut the blood orange in two with his dagger and offered half to Sansa. “The lads are far too treacherous to be part of any such scheme . . . and Osmund has become especially unreliable since he joined the Kingsguard. That white cloak does things to a man, I find. Even a man like him.”

Kettleblacks are the pets of LF. However, they are not entirely reliable. LF pairs his unreliable agents together and bid them to spy on each other secretly (e.g. Lothor Brune and Oswell Kettleblack watching each other). That way LF remains sure of their loyalty. So who spies the Kettleblack brothers for LF in KL secretly?

Lady Merryweather’s dark eyes shone with mischief. “Just so. Scars make a man look dangerous, and danger is exciting.”

“You shock me, my lady,” the queen said, teasing. “If danger excites you so, why wed Lord Orton? We all love him, it is true, but still...” Petyr had once remarked that the horn of plenty that adorned House Merryweather’s arms suited Lord Orton admirably, since he had carrot-colored hair, a nose as bulbous as a beetroot, and pease porridge for wits.

Taena laughed. “My lord is more bountiful than dangerous, this is so. Yet... I hope Your Grace will not think the less of me, but I did not come a maid entire to Orton’s bed.”

You are all whores in the Free Cities, aren’t you? That was good to know; one day, she might be able to make use of it. “And pray, who was this lover who was so... full of danger?”

Taena’s olive skin turned even darker as she blushed. “Oh, I should not have spoken. Your Grace will keep my secret, yes?”

In this passage above, the jape of LF does not look so necessary when you think about it first. But if you read the bolded words and reflect on how LF can be involved in this scheme, I think it becomes clear that the man who took the maidenhead of Taena cries like PEEEEEETYR. What LF said about Lord Orton misses something. Horn of plenty suits Lord Orton mostly because of the plenty of horns LF and Taena gave him.

2nd Part

Jaime could not be certain who had convinced his sister that Ser Bonifer should be named castellan of Harrenhal, but the appointment smelled of Orton Merryweather. Hasty had once served Merryweather’s grandsire, he seemed to recall dimly. And the carrot-haired justiciar was just the sort of simpleminded fool to assume that someone called “the Good” was the very potion the riverlands required to heal the wounds left by Roose Bolton, Vargo Hoat, and Gregor Clegane.

But he might not be wrong. Hasty hailed from the stormlands, so had neither friends nor foes along the Trident; no blood feuds, no debts to pay, no cronies to reward. He was sober, just, and dutiful, and his Holy Eighty-Six were as well disciplined as any soldiers in the Seven Kingdoms, and made a lovely sight as they wheeled and pranced their tall grey geldings. Littlefinger had once quipped that Ser Bonifer must have gelded the riders too, so spotless was their repute.

All the same, Jaime wondered about any soldiers who were better known for their lovely horses than for the foes they’d slain. They pray well, I suppose, but can they fight? They had not disgraced themselves on the Blackwater, so far as he knew, but they had not distinguished themselves either. Ser Bonifer himself had been a promising knight in his youth, but something had happened to him, a defeat or a disgrace or a near brush with death, and afterward he had decided that jousting was an empty vanity and put away his lance for good and all.

The decision of appointing Ser Bonifer Hasty as the castellan of Harrenhal to heal the wounds of the war sounds good as Jaime pointed. However, we can be certain that such a subtle decision cannot be designed by Cersei alone. Since there is the jape of LF in this passage again, which also looks not so necessary, we can be sure that this decision was actually LF’s alone. After all, he is the Lord of Harrenhal and since the war in Riverlands looks like mostly over, he surely wants a good man to clear the mess for him.

Since Jaime thinks that this decision smells Orton Merryweather, we can be sure that this was not his call. I think Taena gave this idea to Cersei under the command of LF.

There is another parallel we can draw from this passage to LF. Bonifer loved Queen Rhaella but he was much too lowborn to be a match for her. So he gave up jousting and dedicated himself to the Faith. Similarly, LF loved Cat but he was much too lowborn to be a match for her. He challenged Brandon but he was humiliated. So he gave up brute force and dedicated himself to the Game of Thrones.

I think all these clearly show that the true allegiance of Taena lies with LF.

ETA:

Just before the scar dialogue between Taena and Cersei, there is the mention of Osney (who is LF’s spy) and how the servant girl likes his scars. LF is indirectly involved in this part of the conversation too. Just like Dorcas likes Osney's scars, Taena likes the scar of Osney's boss.

“Dorcas, fetch me Ser Osney Kettleblack.”

Dorcas blushed. “As you command.”

When the girl was gone, Taena Merryweather gave the queen a quizzical look. “Why did she turn so red?”

“Love.” It was Cersei’s turn to laugh. “She fancies our Ser Osney.” He was the youngest Kettleblack, the clean-shaved one. Though he had the same black hair, hooked nose, and easy smile as his brother Osmund, one cheek bore three long scratches, courtesy of one of Tyrion’s whores. “She likes his scars, I think.”

There is also the curious mention of one of Tyrion’s whores who gave those scratches to Osney. We know that the Kettleblacks captured Alayaya and Cersei had her whipped. I think this must be one of the girls in Chataya’s brothel.

ETA:

Another addition to the LF owns Taena case.

Outside a cold wind was rising. They stayed up late into the morning, drinking Arbor gold and telling one another tales. Taena got quite drunk and Cersei pried the name of her secret lover from her. He was a Myrish sea captain, half a pirate, with black hair to the shoulders and a scar that ran across his face from chin to ear. “A hundred times I told him no, and he said yes,” the other woman told her, “until finally I was saying yes as well. He was not the sort of man to be denied.”

“I know the sort,” the queen said with a wry smile.

“Has Your Grace ever known a man like that, I wonder?”

“Robert,” she lied, thinking of Jaime.

Taena got drunk and told Cersei that her scarred lover was a Myrish captain. Cersei told she knew the sort but she lied about it. I think it is very clear that the story of that Myrish captain is BS, i.e. Taena lied just like Cersei while she was thinking of another person (LF).

[Hippocras]

yes I am quite convinced on LF and Taena, and was before your very convincing description above.

Bonifer is an interesting and new twist though and does feed into the proposal I posted above of an LF and Sparrow link. Perhaps Bonifer Hasty and his zealous warriors are how that connection was orchestrated.

[Mithras]

I originally believed "stupidity explains more than conspiracy," but you made a good argument for Merryweather being a destabilizing agent. I will say he fits the Varys/Mopat agent profile very well. As does Qyburn to a lesser degree. The profile (first seen with Jorah and confirmed with Tyrion) is one with a high birth, then exiled, and desperately wanting a way to regain all they lost.

This is a good perspective to look at the agents. Varys/Illyrio like to uses exiles or dispossessed/disgraced (Jorah/Barristan/JonCon/some of the GC/Tyrion/possibly Haldon and Lemore). Thinking of Haldon, he may be a disgraced maester too, which favors the idea of Varys using Qyburn.

LF OTOH, employs upjumped people with high ambitions or "hungry" knights like Kettleblacks, Lothor Brune etc. Taena fits his profile because she seems to be a high profile whore who upjumped to be a lady.

[Hippocras]

Did you see my post above? Qyburn and Taena tag-teamed on the Gardener coin thing. I think they are on the same side.

[TheSnape]

Cersei's small council?

Idiots, all of them

[myhousigilisthehousecat]

Very nice thread, but I do not believe Qyburn actually works for anybody. He's just using Cersei as a means to conduct his Dr. Frankenstein-like-experiments, thus he merely agrees with her on most things (perhaps even knowing that they are stupid) to stay in her good graces.

I agree. He served Vargo Hoat in Harrenhal before, so the only likely connections that he could have made are Roose and Tywin, and Roose wouldn't benefit from the Lannisters failing. Maybe, maaaaybe, with Littlefinger when the company was still in the free cities, but that seems like a major stretch. Also because he's just been fixing stumps with the bloody mummers for so long, he's no political expert.

[Winnief]

Paper Waver makes a very good case for Taena being LF's spy. I'm not still not sure about the notion of Qyborn serving Doran-I think it's more likely that Varys has been feeding information to Dorne for quite some time...