Untangling Cersei's Small Council

[Hippocras]

Paper Waver makes a very good case for Taena being LF's spy. I'm not still not sure about the notion of Qyborn serving Doran-I think it's more likely that Varys has been feeding information to Dorne for quite some time...

I am unconvinced. If Varys was Doran's contact, why on earth would he keep Aegon secret from him all this time? Doran is not a blabbermouth, and he is the real Aegon's uncle, so his allegiance is important.

I think his contact was LF

[Mithras]

Hippocras, I read your thread and posts but I cannot convince myself to the LF-Dorne-High Sparrow cooperation. LF and Varys might have some sort of cooperation occasionally, like when their short term-interests converge but I don't think they share the same long term goals. From what I understand, Varys is trying to install fAegon while LF is trying to have everything. And although I appreciate Doran very much, he is too predictable for the likes of Varys and LF.

“Gentle, pious, good-hearted Willas Tyrell. Be grateful you were spared, he would have bored you spitless. The old woman is not boring, though, I’ll grant her that. A fearsome old harridan, and not near as frail as she pretends. When I came to Highgarden to dicker for Margaery’s hand, she let her lord son bluster while she asked pointed questions about Joffrey’s nature. I praised him to the skies, to be sure . . . whilst my men spread disturbing tales amongst Lord Tyrell’s servants. That is how the game is played.”

“I also planted the notion of Ser Loras taking the white. Not that I suggested it, that would have been too crude. But men in my party supplied grisly tales about how the mob had killed Ser Preston Greenfield and raped the Lady Lollys, and slipped a few silvers to Lord Tyrell’s army of singers to sing of Ryam Redwyne, Serwyn of the Mirror Shield, and Prince Aemon the Dragonknight. A harp can be as dangerous as a sword, in the right hands.”

“Mace Tyrell actually thought it was his own idea to make Ser Loras’s inclusion in the Kingsguard part of the marriage contract. Who better to protect his daughter than her splendid knightly brother? And it relieved him of the difficult task of trying to find lands and a bride for a third son, never easy, and doubly difficult in Ser Loras’s case.”

“Be that as it may. Lady Olenna was not about to let Joff harm her precious darling granddaughter, but unlike her son she also realized that under all his flowers and finery, Ser Loras is as hot-tempered as Jaime Lannister. Toss Joffrey, Margaery, and Loras in a pot, and you’ve got the makings for kingslayer stew. The old woman understood something else as well. Her son was determined to make Margaery a queen, and for that he needed a king . . . but he did not need Joffrey. We shall have another wedding soon, wait and see. Margaery will marry Tommen. She’ll keep her queenly crown and her maidenhead, neither of which she especially wants, but what does that matter? The great western alliance will be preserved . . . for a time, at least.”

Here LF explains how he manipulated the Tyrells. I think Doran is not very different. Varys avoids being perceived as giving orders to Doran or even negotiating with him. But still, he is moving Dorne closer and closer to fAegon. I think Doran does not know that he is being manipulated into supporting fAegon. I think he will not make appearance besides fAegon as Varys because Doran considers Varys as an enemy.

In this perspective, Qyburn feeding intel to Doran but not mentioning his real employer sounds better.

[Hippocras]

no, Varys and Littlefinger are definitely not working together. I never proposed that. Although sometimes they may use each other's agents just as both Tyrion and Littlefinger used the Kettleblacks.

I disagree that Doran is predictable. I think he is going to surprise everyone with the subtlety and complexity of his plan. Absolutely noone knows exactly what he is up to, including Arianne. Littlefinger may think he is manipulating Doran, if he is the informant, but in fact it will be the other way around.

The error in your assumption is that you are convinced without proof that Varys is Doran's informant and that he will side with Aegon. I think he may temporarily do so, but he knows Aegon is fake. I think he may be playing both sides there.

This is why I suspect his move may be to marry Myrcella to Aegon, convincing Aegon this is a good idea because it will mean he can take King's Landing without a fight, once the Tyrell forces withdraw to defend the Reach and Margery is disgraced through her trial. The reason this is a good move for him is that if he knows Aegon is fake it buys him time without provoking a direct war with the Lannisters, allowing him to concentrate on the Tyrells. By then the relationship between Lannisters and Tyrells will be so damaged they will never fight together.

[Mithras]

/nm

[Mithras]

“I grow ever more admiring of you, my lord,” confessed the eunuch. “You appease the Stark boy with his father’s bones and strip your sister of her protectors in one swift stroke. You give that black brother the men he seeks, rid the city of some hungry mouths, yet make it all seem mockery so none may say that the dwarf fears snarks and grumkins. Oh, deftly done.”

This is how Varys admired Tyrion’s move in ACoK.

Qyburn leaned forward with a smile. “The Night’s Watch defends us all from snarks and grumkins. My lords, I say that we must help the brave black brothers.”

Cersei gave him a sharp look. “What are you saying?”

“This,” Qyburn said. “For years now, the Night’s Watch has begged for men. Lord Stannis has answered their plea. Can King Tommen do less? His Grace should send the Wall a hundred men. To take the black, ostensibly, but in truth...”

“...to remove Jon Snow from the command,” Cersei finished, delighted. I knew I was right to want him on my council. “That is just what we shall do.” She laughed. If this bastard boy is truly his father’s son, he will not suspect a thing. Perhaps he will even thank me, before the blade slides between his ribs. “It will need to be done carefully, to be sure. Leave the rest to me, my lords.” This was how an enemy should be dealt with: with a dagger, not a declaration.

And this is what Qyburn suggests to the Council.

Qyburn says snarks and grumkins to show that he does not fear them just like Tyrion. And these are the only use of this bolded phrase in the series.

Appeasing the Stark boy with his father’s bones transformed into appeasing the Stark boy (Jon Snow) with the new recruits he asks.

Stripping Cersei of her protectors means this:

“The red cloaks?” Tyrion shrugged. “Vylarr’s loyalty is to Casterly Rock. He knows I am here with my father’s authority. Cersei would find it hard to use his men against me… besides, they are only a hundred.”

Tyrion plucked at one of the twisted blades that sprang from the arm of the throne. And now the thrust. “Vylarr,” he called.

“My lord.”

“The men Stark sent are sufficient to protect Lord Eddard’s bones, but a Lannister should have a Lannister escort,” Tyrion declared. “Ser Cleos is the queen’s cousin, and mine. We shall sleep more easily if you would see him safely back to Riverrun.”

“As you command. How many men should I take?”

“Why, all of them.”

Tyrion sends a hundred red cloaks as the escort of Ser Cleos Frey to Robb Stark. They also have a secret purpose to remove Jaime from prison which they fail. In the same council meeting, we also have this:

“Lord Baelish,” Tyrion called down to Littlefinger, “buy our brave Ser Alliser a hundred spades to take back to the Wall with him.”

“Spades?” Ser Alliser narrowed his eyes suspiciously.

“If you bury your dead, they won’t come walking,” Tyrion told him, and the court laughed openly. “Spades will end your troubles, with some strong backs to wield them. Ser Jacelyn, see that the good brother has his pick of the city dungeons.”

Tyrion offers a hundred spades to the NW and the men to wield them. So many references to a hundred.

Returning to Qyburn, he offers a hundred men to the NW with the secret purpose of removing Jon Snow from the command.

Note that Cersei planned to send Osney as the man to slay Jon but before she could finish this plot, she was imprisoned.

With so many similarities between the move of Tyrion which Varys admired and the offer of Qyburn, what can we make of this? I think this is a strong evidence for Qyburn being the agent of Varys. There may even be a crackpot possibility of Varys glamoring as Qyburn but let us leave that aside.

[Mithras]

/nm

[Hippocras]

I really doubt Qyburn is working with Varys. Qyburn is more LF's type, as I provided evidence for above, there are reasons to believe Qyburn and Taena are agents for the same team. So if you think Taena is LF's, you should consider Qyburn to be as well.

LF usually pairs his agents as we know.

[joluoto2]

I really doubt Qyburn is working with Varys. Qyburn is more LF's type, as I provided evidence for above, there are reasons to believe Qyburn and Taena are agents for the same team. So if you think Taena is LF's, you should consider Qyburn to be as well.

LF usually pairs his agents as we know.

But wouldn't Taena's pair be her husband Lord Merryweather. I'm pretty sure those two work together.

[Hippocras]

But wouldn't Taena's pair be her husband Lord Merryweather. I'm pretty sure those two work together.

Well a couple doesn't count because the reason he does it is so they spy on each other and keep each other in line. Like Oswell and Lothor.

Both Qyburn and Taena came to King's Landing around the same time, just when LF left (supposedly) for the Vale.

[Lord Varys]

On the OP:

I agree with the assessment of Aurane Waters being in the game for himself, realizing that Cersei is nuts/stupid enough to allow him to steal the new fleet. But if he is not completely stupid one should expect that he'll eventually advances to another pretender, offering his pirate fleet in exchange for advancement. Aegon is the best bet for that, since he is still close by. Cersei's ships could take the Golden Company across the Blackwater...

I'm very positive that the Merryweathers have connections to Varys/Illyrio and the Golden Company. We know that Lord Owen Merryweather was exiled, and exile lords seem to gravitate towards the Golden Company. Owen was Orton's grandfather, and we don't know what happened to Orton's father. He may have died in battle as a captain of the Golden Company.

Taena is clearly not trying to advance her family when she gets Cersei's best friend. If that was her goal, then she would not have refused two times to bring her own son to court. That's a very important hint that the Merryweathers are not at Cersei's court to stay. And the fact that they did flee the city as soon as the queens were arrested is also a very big hint that they were not on the payroll of House Tyrell, either, else they would not have felt the need to flee. Orton is really very afraid in the end that he and his wife might not be able to escape the mess Cersei was creating, especially if the Tyrell armies returned into the city...

Qyburn, I think, is sincere in the sense that he tries to do his best to please Cersei. But he is obviously preoccupied with other things that mean more to him than court politics and the office of Master of Whisperers. I guess Qyburn is smart enough to master the game of court intrigue if he would give it all his attentions, but that's not going to happen. He sees his rise at court only as means to pursue his own research, and ultimately he will only be loyal to himself and that research. And this is also why he'll be fervently loyal to Cersei. She is the only one mad enough to allow and assist him with his research. Ser Robert Strong may be Cersei's only hope, both during and after her trial-by-combat. If the Qyborg is truly more or less invincible, she should use him to either try to stage another coup in KL, and/or use him in an attempt to take Tommen and go to Casterly Rock with him. She most certainly will fear that the Tyrells will murder her son next, after they had just murdered Pycelle and Kevan.

[complexphoenix]

I am not seeing the evidence that Orton Merryweather works for fAegon. I think he's probably just a dumb yes-man who thinks he's smarter than he is, or else his wife is pulling his strings.

Qyburn and Aurane are both in it for themselves and will follow whoever gives them the best deal. They are following Cersei at present because Aurane wants ships and Qyburn wants test subjects.

The rest of them, I think you have correct.

[MegaAIP]

Nice break down. Cersei definitely put together the most stupid council in history, but I think she wasnt going for intelligence but rather a bunch of "yes men"

yes she 100% wanted yes men and that's what she got.

She really had a chance, a really good chance to rule the whole deal. She should have marred tyrell, then she would hold the power of lannister and tyrell

[Lord Varys]

It's very difficult for me to imagine that Littlefinger and Doran - or Littlefinger and the Merryweathers - have anything to do with each other. Doran plays an old game, he plays the game of revenge, the game of Targaryen restoration. His allies will be other (secret) Targaryen loyalists, not some up-jumped Master of Coin whose loyalties are non-existent. Doran is not somebody who strikes a temporary alliance (Littlefinger/Olenna) to achieve a common goal, else Dorne would have allied with 'King Renly' against the Lannisters.

Doran could easily be in direct communication with Varys, knowing that he is a secret Targaryen loyalist. That's all he needs to know. Doran did not tell Varys/Illyrio about the secret marriage pact between Viserys Targaryen and Arianne Martell, nor did Varys/Illyrio know that Doran was sending Quentyn to marry Dany. And, vice versa, Doran did know nothing about Varys/Illyrio intending to marry Dany to Aegon.

From Varys' POV, Dorne does not need to know anything about Aegon, because when he is revealed they will join him anyway - especially if he had married Daenerys.

Ser Bonifer Hasty's appointment as castellan of Harrenhal is a rather poignant sign that a Targaryen loyalist has been put in an important position. His connection to the Merryweathers goes back to Aerys' Hand Lord Owen Merryweather, and I'm pretty sure that a knight who was once in love with Rhaella Targaryen will declare for her grandson as soon as he can...

[Hippocras]

It's very difficult for me to imagine that Littlefinger and Doran - or Littlefinger and the Merryweathers - have anything to do with each other. Doran plays an old game, he plays the game of revenge, the game of Targaryen restoration. His allies will be other (secret) Targaryen loyalists, not some up-jumped Master of Coin whose loyalties are non-existent. Doran is not somebody who strikes a temporary alliance (Littlefinger/Olenna) to achieve a common goal, else Dorne would have allied with 'King Renly' against the Lannisters.

Doran could easily be in direct communication with Varys, knowing that he is a secret Targaryen loyalist. That's all he needs to know. Doran did not tell Varys/Illyrio about the secret marriage pact between Viserys Targaryen and Arianne Martell, nor did Varys/Illyrio know that Doran was sending Quentyn to marry Dany. And, vice versa, Doran did know nothing about Varys/Illyrio intending to marry Dany to Aegon.

From Varys' POV, Dorne does not need to know anything about Aegon, because when he is revealed they will join him anyway - especially if he had married Daenerys.

Ser Bonifer Hasty's appointment as castellan of Harrenhal is a rather poignant sign that a Targaryen loyalist has been put in an important position. His connection to the Merryweathers goes back to Aerys' Hand Lord Owen Merryweather, and I'm pretty sure that a knight who was once in love with Rhaella Targaryen will declare for her grandson as soon as he can...

Why would Doran believe Varys is a Targ loyalist?

IIRC, most people who were around at the time seem to hold Varys responsible for the mess at Harrenhal that led to the war by feeding Aery's paranoia. I would say Targ loyalists are extremely suspicious of him.

[Lord Varys]

Not necessarily. There are exactly two sources for Varys feeding Aerys' paranoia - Barristan Selmy and Jaime Lannister (Stannis only repeats what Selmy has told him). Those guys are not smart enough to see through Varys' deceptions. For all we know, Selmy has not even realized that

1. Illyrio and Varys work together.

2. Varys was the one who arranged his dismissal from the KG.

3. Varys was (most likely) the one who protected him after he had returned to KL, and helped him to arrange passage for him to Pentos.

Varys is around long enough to know Doran Martell. And since the whole Aegon plan hinges very much on the willingness of House Martell to back Aegon, it's very likely that Varys has tried to present himself as a friend to Dorne and House Targaryen when dealing with the Prince of Dorne.

Completely ignoring Sunspear in his effort to put Aegon on the Iron Throne would have been suicide. But it's very likely that Doran does not really trust Varys (else he would have told him about Quentyn's mission, or the marriage contract between Arianne and Viserys), just as it's evident that Varys/Illyrio did not trust Doran with the Aegon plan.

[Hippocras]

2. - what is the proof of that one?

[Lord Varys]

Read the books. When Tyrion confronts Cersei about the current situation in KL in his first ACoK chapter - Ned's execution, Selmy's dismissal, Janos Slynt's appointment - Cersei explicitly states that Joff wanted to punish somebody for Robert's death, and Varys suggested Ser Barristan.

That's one of the earlier hints in the whole series that Varys is undermining the Baratheon/Lannister regime to eventually restore a Targaryen pretender to the Iron Throne.

My evidence for 3. would be that Barristan tells Dany that returned to KL via the Gate of the Gods - Varys has posted agents at this very gate who observe all the comings and goings through (and possibly at any other gate of the city as well). This is hinted at in ACoK as well, when Varys confronts Tyrion about Shae. He says something like 'When you pass through the eyes of the gods, it almost seems as if their eyes are following you.' That means Varys' agents are watching through those eyes.

[Hippocras]

no, I didn't have a problem with 3. I agree with that one. I had not remembered 2 so good catch.

In general Doran is pretty damned hard to figure out. Hard to say how he feels about Varys. The interpretation of Doran and Varys working together but having mutual distrust is one possibility.

The other of course is that Doran is not working with Varys.

[Lord Varys]

I don't think they are working with each other. But I really think that Doran's source in KL may be Varys. The one warning him about Cersei's attempt to murder Trystane. Varys wants the Martells to join Aegon, especially now, so he will do everything he can to ensure that they are not weakened.

And I don't see doing that through agents like Taena or Qyburn...

[Hippocras]

I don't think they are working with each other. But I really think that Doran's source in KL may be Varys. The one warning him about Cersei's attempt to murder Trystane. Varys wants the Martells to join Aegon, especially now, so he will do everything he can to ensure that they are not weakened.

And I don't see doing that through agents like Taena or Qyburn...

yeah, see that is where I think we differ. I suspect Doran's contact in KL may be LF not Varys. Or possibly both of them without the other knowing.

I think that when Varys told Tyrion about a dinner in KL where Balon Swann made a joke about the five kings - I think that was GRRM dropping a hint about a particular group of conspirators. Of which Varys is either not a part, or of which Varys wanted to make sure Tyrion knew about from him first so he control the reception. Either way, the moment suggests Balon Swann is part of that group of conspirators, meaning it could well have been Balon himself who told Doran about the plot of Cersei's.

I think Qyburn and Taena are part of LF's group, not Varys's.