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Untangling Cersei's Small Council


Mithras

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The chances that Littlefinger is still a powerful man in KL - or cares what happens there - are very slim. If the books teach us anything, then that power in the capital hinges greatly on you being there to keep an eye on things personally. Tyrion's power crumbles during the few days he is incapacitated after the Blackwater. Littlefinger loses many of his active agents while he is out of the city, too. Varys takes out many of his supporters among the merchants of the city with the Antler Men intrigue (while Littlefinger is off in Highgarden in ACoK), and later a chain of events leads to the arrest/neutralization of the Kettleblack brothers (Osney is with the High Septon, and Osmund and Osfryd have been arrested by Ser Kevan).



Lord Gyles Rosby, Tyrion's successor as Master of Coin, demanded the permission to fire any treasury official appointed by Littlefinger, which Cersei granted him, and although we don't know if Lord Gyles lived long enough to see that through, it's not impossible (and Rosby eventually was succeeded by Ser Harys Swyft who may have appointed Lannister men to the treasury). The the treasury officials Littlefinger would have lost another base of his power in KL.


Littlefinger's plan from the very beginning was to take over the Vale. He and Lysa made a pact that he would marry her, as soon as they had secured a title for him, enabling him to marry Lady Arryn without causing a scandal that would threaten his/their rule over the Vale.



That's about Littlefinger's grand plan as far as he is revealed by now. What he wants to accomplish from there is likely to rise even higher, but not by influencing/manipulating events in KL, but by keeping the Vale out of whatever conflict is going rest in the mainland of Westeros, eventually using his military might - and Sansa Stark - as a bargaining chip in a deal with a pretender/faction in need that's in need of help he could offer.


Littlefinger is a very smart man, but he is not well-connected with everyone out there. His power base was always in the Vale, the region he has now taken over. He had his followers there, in Gulltown, and elsewhere, ever since he served as a finance official in Gulltown (his first office Lysa secured for him).



As to the Balon Swann thing: That was a test Varys used to judge Tyrion's character. He wanted to know what sort of person he was/would be as Hand of the King. Would he be interested in gossip and jokes that could be construed to be treason? Or would he use his wits and try to be a more or less good and just ruler. Later on, there is a scene mirroring the Tyrion-Varys conversation about Balon Swann with Cersei and her 'Smallest Council'. Qyburn tells Cersei gossip and stuff - if I remember correctly the piece about the play where the arrogant lions are eventually devoured by a dragon who hatched from an egg. That was not supposed to test Cersei the way Tyrion was tested by Varys, but it greatly illustrated Cersei's personality, her tendency to look into irrelevant things and not pursuing the really important issues that actually threaten her (and interest the reader).


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Well I am fairly sure that both Taena and Qyburn are LF agents, and he is still actively manipulating things in KL through them.

Of course there is no proof yet though, because that would give away too much story. So we shall see. But there are clues they are two sides of the same coin, and they both arrived as LF was leaving to be his new eyes and ears in KL.

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Well I am fairly sure that both Taena and Qyburn are LF agents, and he is still actively manipulating things in KL through them.

Of course there is no proof yet though, because that would give away too much story. So we shall see. But there are clues they are two sides of the same coin, and they both arrived as LF was leaving to be his new eyes and ears in KL.

Except Taena bailed as soon as Cersei got nabbed by the Fai-

oh wait.

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Except Taena bailed as soon as Cersei got nabbed by the Fai-

oh wait.

:D yes. Oh wait. :D

Of course, as far as I know, it is on Qyburn's word that we believe she left? She may have left, her part being finished. Or Qyburn may be lying. We'll see.

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:D yes. Oh wait. :D

Of course, as far as I know, it is on Qyburn's word that we believe she left? She may have left, her part being finished. Or Qyburn may be lying. We'll see.

I always thought Taena was in the Tyrell's pocket along with Aurane Waters, but I'd believe Qyburn to be an agent of LF. I think they're both deceiving Cersei, just for different ends.

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But Qyburn and Littlefinger never even met. Jaime arrived at KL after Joffrey's wedding. Was Qyburn already in Littlefinger's employ while he hung out with the Bloody Mummers? And if not, how the hell was Qyburn recruited by Littlefinger after he arrived at KL?


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But Qyburn and Littlefinger never even met. Jaime arrived at KL after Joffrey's wedding. Was Qyburn already in Littlefinger's employ while he hung out with the Bloody Mummers? And if not, how the hell was Qyburn recruited by Littlefinger after he arrived at KL?

I think he was already LF's agent with the Bloody Mummers yes. I think that is how the Red Wedding was arranged - the Bloody Mummers were active all over the Riverlands, with lots of opportunities to pass messages between Boltons and Freys. Jamie's hand was already treated and healing when Jamie left Harrenhal, so Qyburn leaving to tend to Jamie's wound was just an excuse. Really he left because Littlefinger was leaving KL and needed new eyes and ears. Anyway that is what i think. We will see.

I always thought Taena was in the Tyrell's pocket along with Aurane Waters, but I'd believe Qyburn to be an agent of LF. I think they're both deceiving Cersei, just for different ends.

Might be serving different people - but it is the story about the Gardener coin found in Rugen's rooms that makes me think they are on the same team, watching each other as LF likes to arrange things. He never has just one agent. Always two keeping each other in line.

Noone else ever saw any coin except Qyburn, and we have only Taena's word that Oleana keeps a trunk of such coins. There is just the word of these two, creating a story to increase Cersei's hatred and distrust of the Tyrells.

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I think he was already LF's agent with the Bloody Mummers yes. I think that is how the Red Wedding was arranged - the Bloody Mummers were active all over the Riverlands, with lots of opportunities to pass messages between Boltons and Freys. Jamie's hand was already treated and healing when Jamie left Harrenhal, so Qyburn leaving to tend to Jamie's wound was just an excuse. Really he left because Littlefinger was leaving KL and needed new eyes and ears. Anyway that is what i think. We will see.

Might be serving different people - but it is the story about the Gardener coin found in Rugen's rooms that makes me think they are on the same team, watching each other as LF likes to arrange things. He never has just one agent. Always two keeping each other in line.

Noone else ever saw any coin except Qyburn, and we have only Taena's word that Oleana keeps a trunk of such coins. There is just the word of these two, creating a story to increase Cersei's hatred and distrust of the Tyrells.

I agree. I always thought that the Highgarden coin thing was an obvious lie. Why would someone as clever as Olenna orchestrate a regicide using something that could be easily traced to her and only to her? It would be the equivalent of Cersei paying the Kettleblacks for killing the High Septon by giving them her royal crown, or one of the Lannisters' new Valyrian steel swords.

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Rugen is Varys' alter ego, and Varys left the Gardener coin there to implicate Olenna, fueling Cersei's paranoia. Qyburn fell for the ruse, just as Cersei did. There is no deeper secret to that thing.



And Qyburn and Littlefinger had nothing to do with the Red Wedding. That one was brokered by Tywin, Roose, and Walder/the Freys.


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Rugen is Varys' alter ego, and Varys left the Gardener coin there to implicate Olenna, fueling Cersei's paranoia. Qyburn fell for the ruse, just as Cersei did. There is no deeper secret to that thing.

And Qyburn and Littlefinger had nothing to do with the Red Wedding. That one was brokered by Tywin, Roose, and Walder/the Freys.

We''ll see. :D

Rugen (Varys) might have left the coin, maybe. If there even was a coin. But Taena is the only one to claim Oleana keeps those coins.

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@Hippocras: If Varys planted the coin so Auburn would find it, and if Taena told Cersei about Olenna's use of the coins, doesn't that suggest that Taena is working for Varys (Illyrio) and that Varys is playing Qyburn?

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@Hippocras: If Varys planted the coin so Auburn would find it, and if Taena told Cersei about Olenna's use of the coins, doesn't that suggest that Taena is working for Varys (Illyrio) and that Varys is playing Qyburn?

My point is, we actually have no idea Oleana uses such coins. That could be complete fabrication on Taena's part. It would be a safe lie for her because Cersei has no way of verifying it. Taena is her only contact inside the Tyrell group.

There is a vague possibility she is a Varys agent, but the case is weak. She is more LF's type, and also the timing of her arrival makes more sense for LF than Varys because Varys had no intention of leaving KL.

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Qyburn leaned forward with a smile. “The Night’s Watch defends us all from snarks and grumkins. My lords, I say that we must help the brave black brothers.”

This is very interesting. Qyburn knows better than to dismiss witnesses of undead people roaming around as just fairy tales of snarks and grumkins. Why does he ridicule the Night's Watch when he knows entirely well that the Others are a real possibility (he at least knows about the existence of wights)? Is it because he wants the council and Cersei to not pay attention to how dangerous a problem this is? What if Qyburn actually wants the Others to succeed in invading Westeros? This idea would of course imply that he works for noone but himself (or maybe the Night's King? lol). The fact that he suggests sengin people to the Wall does not contradict this idea, since these new recruits would only serve as new wights for the impending Other invasion.

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This is very interesting. Qyburn knows better than to dismiss witnesses of undead people roaming around as just fairy tales of snarks and grumkins. Why does he ridicule the Night's Watch when he knows entirely well that the Others are a real possibility (he at least knows about the existence of wights)? Is it because he wants the council and Cersei to not pay attention to how dangerous a problem this is? What if Qyburn actually wants the Others to succeed in invading Westeros? This idea would of course imply that he works for noone but himself (or maybe the Night's King? lol). The fact that he suggests sengin people to the Wall does not contradict this idea, since these new recruits would only serve as new wights for the impending Other invasion.

How do you know he knows about wights? His specialty is more the blood magic type from what I can tell.

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How do you know he knows about wights? His specialty is more the blood magic type from what I can tell.

I'm probably biased, but I tend to think that magic is just magic, and the differences between blood magic, Other magic, shadowbinding, etc. is just a conceptual distinction made by humans to rationalise it. And even if what he does is different from what the Others are doing, it is not unreasonable to think that he know about these things. After all, Alliser Thorne came publicly with a wight hand to KL, and Aemon had sent letters to everyone telling the realm about dead people rising. Also, having being a maester gives him plenty of opportunities to have learned something about them.

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I'm probably biased, but I tend to think that magic is just magic, and the differences between blood magic, Other magic, shadowbinding, etc. is just a conceptual distinction made by humans to rationalise it. And even if what he does is different from what the Others are doing, it is not unreasonable to think that he know about these things. After all, Alliser Thorne came publicly with a wight hand to KL, and Aemon had sent letters to everyone telling the realm about dead people rising. Also, having being a maester gives him plenty of opportunities to have learned something about them.

No I agree it is not unreasonable. But still it is an assumption, not a known fact, I guess is all I was saying.

I think the quote mostly shows that Qyburn says what Cersei believes already. He is trying to stay close to her, not challenge her beliefs on anything.

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  • 2 months later...

“She promised me I should be queen, but said another queen would come...” Younger and more beautiful, she said. “...another queen, who would take from me all I loved.”


“And you wish to forestall this prophecy?”


More than anything, she thought. “Can it be forestalled?”


“Oh, yes. Never doubt that.”


“How?”


“I think Your Grace knows how.”


She did. I knew it all along, she thought. Even in the tent. “If she tries I will have my brother kill her.”



This is where Cersei tells Qyburn about the other queen who will doom her. Note that Qyburn tells Cersei to have Margaery killed. Cersei’s schemes to get rid of Margaery turned into a bloody mess which is still ruining the Lannister-Tyrell alliance.



I think this is another hint for Qyburn being in Team Varys.



Note that in the same book, an admirer of Qyburn said this:



“Gorghan of Old Ghis once wrote that a prophecy is like a treacherous woman. She takes your member in her mouth, and you moan with the pleasure of it and think, how sweet, how fine, how good this is... and then her teeth snap shut and your moans turn to screams. That is the nature of prophecy, said Gorghan. Prophecy will bite your prick off every time.”



I think Qyburn knows this too and still drives Cersei into follies. The more she tries to get out of the prophecy, the more she sinks into it.



LF said he was surprised by the rate of destruction in the KL, so Qyburn cannot be in his payroll because LF probably wants him to stabilize Cersei’s follies not multiply them.


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