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Untangling Cersei's Small Council


Mithras

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But Vary whacked Kevan to clear the way for Cersei's return to the regency, and Petyr suggested to Sansa that he was gonna remove Cersei from the board earlier than he expected. Until Aegon actually takes the throne, he benefits from having the nimconput calling the shots in King's Landing.someone else, say Kevan, Stannis, or even Mace would rule more wisely than Cersei, thus making Aegon's task more difficult.

No, VArys whacked Kevan because he is the only competent man.. he cleared the way for Mace Tyrell..

For Cersei to return to regency a number of things must happen first.. right now the clear winner of Kevan´s death is Mace Tyrell.. he will probably take the regency, and fill the small council with reachmen.

Petyr suggested sansa that he could (not would) remove Cersei earlier than expected, if she were to learn about Sansa=Alyane... that pretty much means, Petyr wants Cersei to be in power for a while longer.. 4 or 5 years according to sansa´s last chapter..

I´m not so sure Mace Tyrell would do much better than Cersei.

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The mere existance of Ser Robert i think favors petyr´s 5 year strategy, even if there were no trial.

Everyone will think he is Ser Gregor as soon as they see him.. House Martell´s expected reactiion would be to start conspiring (not open rebeliion) against the IT, and that would pay off at some future. they would feel cheated (as i expect the sand snakes to feel as soon as they arrive)

option a) There is no Robert Strong. Cersei losses her trial, she gets beheaded, Tommen and Myrcella are seen as bastards by the whole realm.

What does House Tyrell do? they abandon tommen and Myrcella to the next claimant they choose to suport.

option B) Robert Strong wins the trial, Cersei gets to keep her head. The Tyrells get to keep all the power..

Just by having Cersei win, doens´t mean she will actually take down the tyrells with her.. in fact, i don´t see how they would allow her to stay in the KL if not as hostage to ensure the support of house lannnister..

option b) >>> Tyrells have to remain attached to the Lannisters in order to undo them. So, Cersei has to win according to Varys. If she loses, Tommen ceases to be a king and the Tyrells return home with all their strength. That is not what Varys wants. >>> Tyrells start losing in the field >>> Margaery is found guilty and executed >>> Tyrells fight the Faith >>> game over for the Tyrells

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option B) >>> Tyrells have to remain attached to the Lannisters in order to undo them. So, Cersei has to win according to Varys. If she loses, Tommen ceases to be a king and the Tyrells return home with all their strength. That is not what Varys wants. >>> Tyrells start losing in the field >>> Margaery is found guilty and executed >>> Tyrells fight the Faith >>> game over for the Tyrells

The tyrells are enemies of Aegon, only as long as they are attached to the lannisters. If they are not attached to the Lannisters, there is no reason to undo them at all.

If they go home with all their strengh, not only they would help aegon get rid of another contender (Euron) but they could very well be potential allies..

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The tyrells are enemies of Aegon, only as long as they are attached to the lannisters. If they are not attached to the Lannisters, there is no reason to undo them at all.

If they go home with all their strengh, not only they would help aegon get rid of another contender (Euron) but they could very well be potential allies..

If fAegon sides with the Tyrells, he loses Dorne. In that case, Dorne would declare him as an impostor. Tyrells are still seen as upjumped schemers who first made a king (Renly) then married two kings (Joffrey/Tommen) recently. If fAegon sides with them, everybody will think that they are usurping the IT by producing a feigned boy.

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So cersie uses money, she should be using to pay on the crowns debt to Braavos, to build a nice new flight for, her trusted council member, Lord (is it Lord?) Aurane Waters, who just so happens to steal said ships.

We all know Braavos doesn't really need any help in building ships but a fleet would make a great gift to someone in need of a fleet, especially if Braavos didn't want to deal with them directly, but who?

Danny - Iron Fleet

Tommen - Redwyne fleet (for now)

fAegon - sell sails/pirates (could use one but what's the connection to Braavos? I guess varys and or Illyrio could have arranged it.)

Dorne - needs one (Lord Waters is close by and Doran, presumably, knows the Sea lord among others, in Braavos)

LF - does he need one? (but that would be just like LF to have someone else build and pay for something, extremly expansive, he may or may not even need.lmao)

Stannis - recently lost fleet (could use one. although it's parked far away, that could just be to throw the sent off the trail. It's actually kinda brilliant, an ex - Stannis supporter finds himself on the small council. The Small council votes to stop payment on all Crown loans but decide to build, what 10, huge dromonds and Lord Waters steals em all. That would be a nice gift to galvanize Stannis and Braavos new alliance, if the time line works out.)

Idk why but I feel like Braavos is a big player that gets over looked a lot,the sea lord, the IB, the FM, maybe not all of them but some are playing a bigger game. Plus I just think it would be funny, and cersiesqe, to use the crowns power and influence to suspend loan payments and than turn around and use those same powers and influence to build a new war fleet, for her enemies, with Braavos getting the credit hahaha brilliant!

On a side not I think Aurane and Loras may have something going on the side. ( not necessarily that) Remember it was lord Waters who brought Queen Cersie the news Of Sir Loras heroic yet tragic victory, after sailing to dragonstone with Sir Loras. I'm just saying if Sir Loras is up to something I think Aurane may know something about it.

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If fAegon sides with the Tyrells, he loses Dorne. In that case, Dorne would declare him as an impostor. Tyrells are still seen as upjumped schemers who first made a king (Renly) then married two kings (Joffrey/Tommen) recently. If fAegon sides with them, everybody will think that they are usurping the IT by producing a feigned boy.

The lannisters sided with the Tyrels and they still "have" Dorne... More so would aegon, given Doran´s main interests.

Dorne would declare him as an impostor?? and side with whom exactly? stannis? Euron?

Everyone will think Aegon is a Feingned boy until he proves himself, regardless of whom is with him.

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What Iron fleet Dany would use? Euron banner men had rejected his idea of sailing to the Smoking sea, instad they are attacking the Reach, and even if Dany had the Iron Fleet that would be pretty useless against the whole naval fleet of the nine cities after they had declared the war at her for cutting the slave trade.


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The lannisters sided with the Tyrels and they still "have" Dorne... More so would aegon, given Doran´s main interests.

Dorne would declare him as an impostor?? and side with whom exactly? stannis? Euron?

Everyone will think Aegon is a Feingned boy until he proves himself, regardless of whom is with him.

1. As you said, the Lannisters "have" Dorne. But we know that Doran is working to destroy the Lannisters.

2. Why should Dorne side with anyone if it goes that way? They may declare independence or claim the IT themselves.

3. Recognition by his uncle and the High Sparrow will greatly improve his chances.

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1. As you said, the Lannisters "have" Dorne. But we know that Doran is working to destroy the Lannisters.

2. Why should Dorne side with anyone if it goes that way? They may declare independence or claim the IT themselves.

3. Recognition by his uncle and the High Sparrow will greatly improve his chances.

1) he has personal reasons to destroy the lannisters.. He wouldn’t work to destroy Aegon just because the Tyrells sided with him, that’s insane.

2) They don´t have the power to claim the IT themselves, and independence,... they would eventually lose. Doran Martell is no Balon Greyjoy.

3) i know it will,.. but more so, if t Tommen and Myrcella were to be seen as bastards by the whole realm... any alternative claimant would benefit from Cersei losing the trial, and her children losing whatever legitimacy they still have.

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If fAegon sides with the Tyrells, he loses Dorne. In that case, Dorne would declare him as an impostor. Tyrells are still seen as upjumped schemers who first made a king (Renly) then married two kings (Joffrey/Tommen) recently. If fAegon sides with them, everybody will think that they are usurping the IT by producing a feigned boy.

Not necessarily. If Doran is convinced Aegon the Maybe really is the lost son of Rhaegar and Elia, he will support him. He would be a way to fulfill his objectives: remove all Lannister influence from King's Landing, kill Tywin and perhaps some of his extended family, and put a child with Martell blood on the throne. For the right peace treaty, Dorne can stomach an alliance with the reach to make this happen... such as Myrcella inheriting the Rock while married to Trystane.

So, really, the question isn't what Aegon will do for Dorne, its whether Dorne can believe him, at which point the question becomes what will Dorne do for Aegon.

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besides, doran was close to siding with REnly IIRC, which was supported mainly by the Tyrells..



Its not really an issue for him.. the main issue is removing the Lannisters from power.



The trial would certainly speed things up, if Cersei were to lose.


In fact, The Tyrells would go back home to deal with Euron.. and everyone would just bend the knee for Aegon.. western lords woud turncloak, the freys would switch sides..Aegon might even find the gates of KL opened for him.



Only Stannis would be left to defy him, isolated in the North..




Qyburn cannot be Doran´s creature IMO, if Ser Robert is going to win the trial. But that doens´t mean he isn´t passing information.


In fact, Littlefinger would want to feed Doran of Cersei´s plots against him.


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1) he has personal reasons to destroy the lannisters.. He wouldn’t work to destroy Aegon just because the Tyrells sided with him, that’s insane.

2) They don´t have the power to claim the IT themselves, and independence,... they would eventually lose. Doran Martell is no Balon Greyjoy.

3) i know it will,.. but more so, if t Tommen and Myrcella were to be seen as bastards by the whole realm... any alternative claimant would benefit from Cersei losing the trial, and her children losing whatever legitimacy they still have.

1) You mean the Tyrells who saved the Lannister asses from Stannis? Had they not intervened, Stannis would give Doran's heart's desire very soon and Doran didnot have to do anything.

2) Balon rebelled against an almighty Robert. Right now, no one can come and defeat the Dornish at Dorne if they declare independence.

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1) You mean the Tyrells who saved the Lannister asses from Stannis? Had they not intervened, Stannis would give Doran's heart's desire very soon and Doran didnot have to do anything.

2) Balon rebelled against an almighty Robert. Right now, no one can come and defeat the Dornish at Dorne if they declare independence.

1) I´m not sure what your point is. are you saying doran now hates the Tyrells because they saved the lannisters and wouldn´t even consider supporting Aegon if he were to be supported in turn by the tyrells? even if by doing so, he can help Aegon take out the lannisters? that doesn´t make much sense to me.

2) Almighty Robert wasn´t the difference between victory and defeat for Balon. Like the Reader says the Old Ways are dead.

Dorne could put its armies in the mountain passes, Aegon woulnt mind.. but once he takes the IT he would turn against dorne. and take it like the young dragon did.

Independence was just too costly for Dorne, and Doran learned his lesson from daenerys (the first one).. don´t fight wars you won´t win and don´t fight wars without just cause.

As far as we know, Doran never ever hints his desire is to have dorne be independnet once more. He wants to remove the lannisters with a safe bet, thats it.

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What Iron fleet Dany would use? Euron banner men had rejected his idea of sailing to the Smoking sea, instad they are attacking the Reach, and even if Dany had the Iron Fleet that would be pretty useless against the whole naval fleet of the nine cities after they had declared the war at her for cutting the slave trade.

The Iron Fleet is the best 100ish ships the IB have. They do not belong to any Lord Bannerman but to the Iron Islands as a whole. I know Victarion lost about a third on the way but after they smash the yunkish and all their allies(Qarth, Ghis, Tolos, ect.) They'll have plenty more. Plus im pretty sure Victarian learned the lesson Stannis taught him, during the greyjoy rebellion. If his plan works I wouldn't worry about volantis, especially if word gets back to the city and it's slaves that the volantian fleet as been destroyed or captured. Not to mention they'll probably raid and restock along the way so I only see her fleet getting bigger.

Danny may even split her force sending her horse by land, especially if she gets the Dothraki, and sending the foot by sea and meet up near pentos or somewhere.

even if the 8 free cities effected negitively by the slave trade, tried to "unite" against her they would probably kill each other first.

Back to your first point the captains and crew of the Iron fleet are not bound to any liege lord but only to the captain of the fleet, Victarion, who takes his commands from the Seastone chair, no matter how begrudgingly. It's a little late for any of them to disagree at this point anyway lol

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  • 2 weeks later...

We know Doran Martell knows up to date, pertinent, intelligence, but from whom? Qyburn looks suspect because of the box and he did keep her up to date on dornish affairs, telling her about Arianna and her friends punishments, and he is close enough to her to know of the plot to kill Trystan.

Yet that just doesn't make sense, did Doran even have time to check the box for a secret letter or did he literally receive the box, and it's contents, as, and when, we see them? If so the box was in plain sight the whole night, just sayin.

My best guess is Doran ' s friend(s) at court is really a go between for Varys. I say that because he's the only other potential person to know so much, so quick, and has the resources to do something about it. Yes maybe LF in a similar round about way but I think Varys has the motive, to push Dorne toward fAegon, and he is the true Master of whisperers.

If I'm right, and even if I'm not, I can't wait to see how Lady Nym and, the innocent septa ' s daughter, Tyene react.

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  • 3 months later...

I'll defend Harys Swyft a bit. He is dumb, true, but he seems to me more of a bootlicker, a yes-man and a coward, than a complete idiot. After all, it was him an Pycelle who took control of the realm, refused to help Cersei, got rid of the Kettleblack in the City Watch and called for Kevan to come back and assume regency. So as stupid as he may seem, and as useless and clueless as he is, he seemed to understand at least that Cersei's rule was a disaster and that Kevan was much more competent and fit for the task. And more importantly, he doesn't seem to be deluded that he is some kind of a genius unlike one specific blonde girl.


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