Untangling Cersei's Small Council

[the Scorpion Knight]

This is very interesting. Qyburn knows better than to dismiss witnesses of undead people roaming around as just fairy tales of snarks and grumkins. Why does he ridicule the Night's Watch when he knows entirely well that the Others are a real possibility (he at least knows about the existence of wights)? Is it because he wants the council and Cersei to not pay attention to how dangerous a problem this is? What if Qyburn actually wants the Others to succeed in invading Westeros? This idea would of course imply that he works for noone but himself (or maybe the Night's King? lol). The fact that he suggests sengin people to the Wall does not contradict this idea, since these new recruits would only serve as new wights for the impending Other invasion.

I wouldn't be surprised if euron and qyburn are responsible and goal of the rampaging Wild Hunt of the Others

[Lost Melnibonean]

My evidence for 3. would be that Barristan tells Dany that returned to KL via the Gate of the Gods - Varys has posted agents at this very gate who observe all the comings and goings through (and possibly at any other gate of the city as well). This is hinted at in ACoK as well, when Varys confronts Tyrion about Shae. He says something like 'When you pass through the eyes of the gods, it almost seems as if their eyes are following you.' That means Varys' agents are watching through those eyes.

I just saw this on a reread (and thought I was so clever :) ). I agree that Varys knew Barristan had returned but I don't believe Varys ever dealt with Barristan directly after Barristan was dismissed by Joffrey. Nor do I think that Barristan is aware of the relationship between Varys and Illyrio. Barristan mistrusts Varys in the extreme.

[Lord Varys]

Yes, but this does not mean that Varys did not watch over Barristan and ensured that he was not captured and could find his way to Pentos.

[Lost Melnibonean]

Yes, but this does not mean that Varys did not watch over Barristan and ensured that he was not captured and could find his way to Pentos.

Agreed.

[Hippocras]

“She promised me I should be queen, but said another queen would come...” Younger and more beautiful, she said. “...another queen, who would take from me all I loved.”

“And you wish to forestall this prophecy?”

More than anything, she thought. “Can it be forestalled?”

“Oh, yes. Never doubt that.”

“How?”

“I think Your Grace knows how.”

She did. I knew it all along, she thought. Even in the tent. “If she tries I will have my brother kill her.”

This is where Cersei tells Qyburn about the other queen who will doom her. Note that Qyburn tells Cersei to have Margaery killed. Cersei’s schemes to get rid of Margaery turned into a bloody mess which is still ruining the Lannister-Tyrell alliance.

I think this is another hint for Qyburn being in Team Varys.

Note that in the same book, an admirer of Qyburn said this:

“Gorghan of Old Ghis once wrote that a prophecy is like a treacherous woman. She takes your member in her mouth, and you moan with the pleasure of it and think, how sweet, how fine, how good this is... and then her teeth snap shut and your moans turn to screams. That is the nature of prophecy, said Gorghan. Prophecy will bite your prick off every time.”

I think Qyburn knows this too and still drives Cersei into follies. The more she tries to get out of the prophecy, the more she sinks into it.

​LF said he was surprised by the rate of destruction in the KL, so Qyburn cannot be in his payroll because LF probably wants him to stabilize Cersei’s follies not multiply them.

Why would this support Qyburn being team Varys over Littlefinger? Your argument makes absolutely no sense to me. It hinges entirely on a belief that Litlefinger wants to prop Cersei up, and this is a belief we know to be false. Littlefinger was directly responsible for the conspiracy to murder her son, which set off the meltdown of the Lannisters' power.

Also, Varys ABHORS sorcerers and blood magic. There is not a single other character who could possibly be more offensive to Varys than Qyburn. Putting him and his blood magic in any sort of position of power would be frankly ridiculous.

[edd tollett:(]

I don't think Qyburn works for Varys but I do think he is making good use of him. Like other ppl have pointed out its still varys birds that report to Qyburn, and I believe they only tell him what varys what's them too. I think that is how he found the Gardner coin. Maybe a little birdie told him about rugens secret hiding spot or just that he might want to take another look at his living quarters for some reason. That's all it would take. He doesn't have to be working directly with him. But I do believe or ten and taena are.

Taena may be working with LF or some one else as well but I think ultimately they are team fAegon.

Aurane and Qyburn are harder to pin down. I agree it makes sense for a velaryon to help a Targ (red or black) but I don't see the connection. Plus everyone can't work for varys. I think Aurane fits LF profile being a young, ambitious, landless lord, with a chip on his shoulder, but i can't make that connection either. But on a side note I think ser Loras and Aurane are hiding the truth about dragonstone, at least from cersie. If Aurane is working for LF, that little boat ride would be a great opportunity to scheme.

As far as Qyburn goes, like I said, I think he's inadvertently helping varys but he may be actually working for someone else. I like the idea antz had about the secret letter in the box to Doran, I'm gonna have to read that chapter again, and someone very close to cersie had to tell Doran. I don't see that plan being hatched during a counsel metting. But how and when would Qyburn of become a martell man? While at the Citadel? I don't think the time line adds up but when did Qyburn leave and when did Alleras go? They both know Marwyn.

This is my guess

Orten merryweather = team fAegon (confident)

Qyburn = team martell (not so confident) or solo

Aurane Waters = LF (not so confident) or free agent

[Mikkel]

I lean towards Aurane Waters being a free agent, an opportunistic and fairly unscrupulous young man who saw the opportunity of a lifetime and took it. He could come down on anyone's side (or stay a pirate, his story nothing more than yet another example of Cersei putting her trust in the wrong people for the wrong reasons).

[edd tollett:(]

I lean towards Aurane Waters being a free agent, an opportunistic and fairly unscrupulous young man who saw the opportunity of a lifetime and took it. He could come down on anyone's side (or stay a pirate, his story nothing more than yet another example of Cersei putting her trust in the wrong people for the wrong reasons).

That's probably the case but it seems like he was planning on jacking the fleet pretty early on, by way of manning the ships with his own ppl. If that's the case then either he has huge balls or someone was backing him haha

[Mikkel]

That's probably the case but it seems like he was planning on jacking the fleet pretty early on, by way of manning the ships with his own ppl. If that's the case then either he has huge balls or someone was backing him haha

That's true, he certainly planned for the possibility of going rogue all along, but whether that was a long-term piece of someone else's puzzle or just Aurane improving his odds if push ever came to shove, well... that remains to be seen. I think he's going to play some sort of role moving forward though, but in favor of who, I honestly have no idea.

[Mithras]

We should also remember that Aurane requested Dragonstone from Cersei. That was way above his position. Dragonstone belongs to Tommen and his future heirs. That is why I think Aurane had other motives in trying to have Dragonstone. Note that Dragonstone has strategic importance in a blockade of the Blackwater Bay. Aurane was either thinking of deflecting to Stannis again or he was waiting for Dany's return, given that he knew the rumours coming from the east about dragons. Surely, Dragonstone along with a fleet are very precious gifts for monarchs, worthy of a legitimization and even lordship.

.

[Hippocras]

I don't think Qyburn works for Varys but I do think he is making good use of him. Like other ppl have pointed out its still varys birds that report to Qyburn, and I believe they only tell him what varys what's them too. I think that is how he found the Gardner coin. Maybe a little birdie told him about rugens secret hiding spot or just that he might want to take another look at his living quarters for some reason. That's all it would take. He doesn't have to be working directly with him. But I do believe or ten and taena are.

Taena may be working with LF or some one else as well but I think ultimately they are team fAegon.

Aurane and Qyburn are harder to pin down. I agree it makes sense for a velaryon to help a Targ (red or black) but I don't see the connection. Plus everyone can't work for varys. I think Aurane fits LF profile being a young, ambitious, landless lord, with a chip on his shoulder, but i can't make that connection either. But on a side note I think ser Loras and Aurane are hiding the truth about dragonstone, at least from cersie. If Aurane is working for LF, that little boat ride would be a great opportunity to scheme.

As far as Qyburn goes, like I said, I think he's inadvertently helping varys but he may be actually working for someone else. I like the idea antz had about the secret letter in the box to Doran, I'm gonna have to read that chapter again, and someone very close to cersie had to tell Doran. I don't see that plan being hatched during a counsel metting. But how and when would Qyburn of become a martell man? While at the Citadel? I don't think the time line adds up but when did Qyburn leave and when did Alleras go? They both know Marwyn.

This is my guess

Orten merryweather = team fAegon (confident)

Qyburn = team martell (not so confident) or solo

Aurane Waters = LF (not so confident) or free agent

Yep, it is very hard to pin down.

There is also the fact that while ultimately Littlefinger and Varys have vastly different goals and interests, they are known to tag team, and use each other's games to advance their own.

I have no doubt that Qyburn and Taena were working off of each other's stories, however they could well be working for different causes.

Taena makes a great deal of sense as an agent for team fAegon/Varys/possibly Dorne, given the Myr connection. Myr's interest in the Blackfyre cause seems to go quite far back.

Qyburn makes absolutely no sense as a Varys collaborator on the other hand, unless Varys's goal was to use him and the bloody mummers to sow chaos and distrust, aka the Great Southern Conspiracy theory. More likely Qyburn works with Littlefinger.

But Littlefinger always has more than one plant. Since the Kettleblacks seem to have been ditched by Littlefinger for getting arrogant and going off script, there must be another.

This other could be Aurane. Whatever Littlefinger is planning, he will soon have need of ships and the Vale has none, or not enough. Littlefinger knows Varys's secret he said, which very possibly means he knows Aegon is fake. A Velaryon would not support a fake Targ. The only thing that would make Aurane a wild card in that sense is that he is a bastard and his interests are not so closely tied to Velaryon interests.

Dorne may also need ships, however the case for it is weaker since passage over land is not difficult and since the Golden Company brought their own ships.

So, what I think is this:

1. Taena was possibly Varys's spy in Highgarden (or Doran's) and possibly turned by Littlefinger on his visit there to discuss alliance terms. So she is likely a double agent. She was encouraged to come to KL just as Littlefinger was preparing to leave. Her coin information is strikingly similar to the whole knife fabricated background story to frame Tyrion.

2. Aurane was IMO Littlefinger's man bridging the Stannis and Highgarden camps. Early on he was more keeping tabs on Stannis, but when the war broke out he stuck to Highgarden, who found it useful to have a Stannis bannerman on their side. He could also be a free agent, or team fAegon, but IMO the case for Littlefinger is made much stronger by his status in the Tyrell camp. As we know, the Tyrells were probably collaborators in Joffrey's murder, regardless of the coin story, and that plot needed a middleman and facilitator for Littlefinger to keep his distance.

3. The Blue Bard is almost certainly Varys's man, as are several of the musician and performer characters for that matter, including Marillion. When Marillion was framed, it was therefore also likely an attack on Varys's network. Same regarding the attempt to pin Margery's supposed adultery on the Blue Bard.

4. I do not think that Dorne is working with Varys. I think rather that Varys is trying to con Dorne and might succeed. The end result either way is that Dorne will likely support Aegon's cause. This is a key difference though because it changes the dynamics of what is taking place in KL: If Doran has is OWN plan, he has his own agents as well. We should not assume that Doran is simply relying on Varys's network.

[Petyr Patter]

We should also remember that Aurane requested Dragonstone from Cersei. That was way above his position. Dragonstone belongs to Tommen and his future heirs. That is why I think Aurane had other motives in trying to have Dragonstone. Note that Dragonstone has strategic importance in a blockade of the Blackwater Bay. Aurane was either thinking of deflecting to Stannis again or he was waiting for Dany's return, given that he knew the rumours coming from the east about dragons. Surely, Dragonstone along with a fleet are very precious gifts for monarchs, worthy of a legitimization and even lordship.

.

Well, being Master of Ships is way above his position. Cersei gave him the position anyways. He had basically stumbled into a big meal ticket and he didn't know how deep the well went. As it turned out, he wasn't going to get Dragonstone, which we know from Cersei's internal monologue. He didn't know that, though.

I think Aurane is sort of wild card on the small council because his presence there occurred entirely because he reminded Cersei of Rhaeghar and for no other reason. He sailed for Stannis beforehand, but I doubt that loyalty wasn't anything more than siding with his father's house liege lord.

I think he is ultimately an opportunist who is looking for the best payday.

[Mithras]

Well, being Master of Ships is way above his position. Cersei gave him the position anyways. He had basically stumbled into a big meal ticket and he didn't know how deep the well went. As it turned out, he wasn't going to get Dragonstone, which we know from Cersei's internal monologue. He didn't know that, though.

I think Aurane is sort of wild card on the small council because his presence there occurred entirely because he reminded Cersei of Rhaeghar and for no other reason. He sailed for Stannis beforehand, but I doubt that loyalty wasn't anything more than siding with his father's house liege lord.

I think he is ultimately an opportunist who is looking for the best payday.

Actually, there are many cases where birth does not matter in order to be a council member or even the Hand. Being the Lord of a castle (especially an important castle like Dragonstone) is a totally different story. I still think that he has three good options; namely Stannis, fAegon and Dany.

[Hippocras]

Actually, there are many cases where birth does not matter in order to be a council member or even the Hand. Being the Lord of a castle (especially an important castle like Dragonstone) is a totally different story. I still think that he has three good options; namely Stannis, fAegon and Dany.

And Littlefinger, wherever that Sansa plot is headed.

[Lost Melnibonean]

Immediately after Aurane proposes construction of a new fleet, Orton jumps in and says seapower is essential. Hmm...

He also goes onto suggest an alliance with Pyke which would surely tear the Bolton/Frey-Lannister alliance apart. Hmm...

And as soon as Cersei declares that she's going to stop payment on the crown's debt to the Iron Bank and to the Faith to build Aurane's ten dromonds, he is the first to support her. Hmm...

[Hippocras]

Immediately after Aurane proposes construction of a new fleet, Orton jumps in and says seapower is essential. Hmm...

He also goes onto suggest an alliance with Pyke which would surely tear the Bolton/Frey-Lannister alliance apart. Hmm...

And as soon as Cersei declares that she's going to stop payment on the crown's debt to the Iron Bank and to the Faith to build Aurane's ten dromonds, he is the first to support her. Hmm...

Nice catches. :)

[bemused]

I think Aurane may have some idea of waiting for Dany, though .. I haven't been focusing on this part of the story as closely as the North or Meereen.. but I've always felt he had his own game, ultimately.

He reminds Cersei of Rhaegar.

The similarity between Lord of Tides and Lord of the Waters (seas) has been noted ... but now with TWoIaF...

we can also see a similarity to "King of the Narrow Sea", Prince Daemon

So whose bastard is Aurane ( and/or where would his bloodlines lead going back a few generations ?) and just how great are his ambitions ? He could only ever serve "Aegon" , but he might hope for a marriage with Dany.

ETA.. He may feel some secret hereditary connection with Dragonstone that emboldened him to ask Cersei for it.

Edit ; correction

[Mithras]

So whose bastard is Aurane and just how great are his ambitions ? He could only ever serve "Aegon" , but he might hope for a marriage with Dany.

Or he can return to Stannis who would give him Dragonstone gladly once he gets the KL. Perhaps the mermen and the seahorses of Patchface mean Aurane and Manderly Fleet.

[bemused]

Hmmm... well,that could be.. I'm sure someone will be riding seahorses .. but the mermen announce their coming, which could also be giving advance warning ..???

Mel surely would not be in favour of Stannis giving up Dragonstone , would she ..??? And would Stannis be so forgiving? I guess that would depend on how great the service rendered was .. but , with Stannis, I think there might be some element of giving with one hand while taking away with the other..???

And then there's the whole theory about "stone" hiding things - which makes the whole Dragonstone = hidden dragon proposition take on new meaning , depending on how much actual Targaryen blood is hidden in Aurane's bloodline.. (I hate to re-awaken another hidden Targaryen theme, but the thought does occur) ..I'm just thinking out loud...

( And it seems that the whole business of matrilineal descent will be important in more cases than Jon's, and not always just in the previous generation..) :dunno: ??

[Hippocras]

I very much doubt that Aurane himself is particularly significant. It is his ships and where he takes them that matters. IMO that's all.

There is so much we don't know, like if he is working with the Tyrells or against them, and so if Loras is his collaborator, hostage or other. We don't know, as a bastard, if he shares the values of the Velaryon house. We don't know if Loras is truly injured or Aurane is merely saying he is to help extract the Tyrells from the Lannister alliance because they have a new game. And if they have a new game, is it Aegon? Or Littlefinger/Sansa? Or Stannis revenge? Finally, if Aurane is not working with the Tyrells, what does THAT mean for his ships? Dorne?

Aurane does not have the status either in-world or as a charater to have personal ambitions regarding Dany. If he did, GRRM would have give us far more than a superficial picture of the guy. He is a minor character with a single purpose: bringing one camp or other some ships.