R + L = J v 70

[Stubby]

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Reference guide

The Tower of the Hand has an excellent analysis of this theory:
Jon Snow's Parents

And Westeros' Citadel also provides a summary:
Jon Snow's Parents

A Wiki of Ice and Fire:
Jon Snow Theories

Frequently Asked Questions:

How can Jon be a Targaryen if he has a burned hand?
Targaryens are not immune to fire. Aerion Brightflame died drinking wildfire. Aegon V and his son Duncan are thought to have died in a fire-related event at Summerhall. Rhaenyra was eaten by Aegon II's dragon, presumably roasted by fire before the dragon took a bite. Viserys died when he was crowned with molten gold. Dany suffered burns from the fire pit incident at the end of A Dance with Dragons. Finally, the author has stated outright that Targaryens are not immune to fire. Jon's burned hand does not mean he is ineligible to be part Targaryen. For more information about the myth of Targaryen fire immunity, see this thread.

How can Jon be a Targ if he doesn't have silver hair and purple eyes?
Not all Targaryens had the typical Valyrian look. Alysanne had blue eyes. Baelor Breakspear and his son(s) had the Dornish look. Some of the Great Bastards did not have typical Valyrian features. Jon's own half-sister Rhaenys had her mother's Dornish look.

If Jon isn't Ned's son, then why does he look so much like him?
Much is made over the fact that Arya looks like Lyanna, and Jon looks like Arya. Ned and Lyanna shared similar looks.

How can Jon be half-Targ if he has a direwolf?
Ned's trueborn children are half Stark and half Tully. Being half Tully didn't prevent them from having a direwolf so there is no reason to think being half Targaryen would prevent Jon from having a direwolf. If Lyanna is his mother, then he's still half Stark. Furthermore, there is already a character who is half Targaryen and half blood of the First Men and was a skinchanger: Bloodraven.

Since Rhaegar was already married, wouldn't Jon still be a bastard?
The evidence that Jon is legitimate is that Targaryens have a history of polygamous marriages which makes it a possibility that Rhaegar had two wives. Three Kingsguards were present at the Tower of Joy when Ned arrived. Even after Ned said that Aerys, Rhaegar and Aegon were dead and Viserys had fled to Dragonstone, the Kingsguard opted to stay at the Tower of Joy stating they were obeying their Kingsguard vow. The heart of a Kingsguard's vow is to protect the king. With Aerys, Rhaegar and Aegon dead, the new king would have been Viserys, unless Lyanna's child was legitimate making him the new king of the Targaryen dynasty. For a comprehensive analysis of Jon's legitimacy, see the detailed explanations in the two linked articles.

But polygamy hadn't been practiced in centuries, is it still even legal?
The practice was never made illegal and there may have been some less prominent examples after Maegor, as stated in this SSM. Furthermore, Jorah suggests it to Dany as a viable option.

Weren't the Kingsguard at Tower of Joy on the basis of an order from Aerys, to guard Lyanna as a hostage?
Aerys was sane enough to realize how taking someone hostage works even at the end of the Rebellion, and he would hardly miss the opportunity to bring Ned and Robert in line any time after the situation started to look really serious. Furthermore, regardless of on whose order the Kingsguard might have stayed at Tower of Joy, they would still be in dereliction of their duty to guard the new king.

This theory is too obvious and too many people believe it to be fact. How can it be true?
The theory is not obvious to the majority of readers. Some will get it on first read, most will not. Keep in mind that readers who go to online fan forums, such as this one, represent a very small minority of the A Song of Ice and Fire readership. Also, A Game of Thrones has been out since 1996. That's more than 17 years of readers being able to piece together this mystery.

Why doesn't Ned ever think about Lyanna being Jon's mother?
Ned doesn't think about anyone as being his mother. He says the name 'Wylla' to Robert, but does not actively think that Wylla is the mother. He also doesn't think of Jon as his son. There are numerous mysteries in the series, and Jon's parentage is one of those. If Ned thought about Jon being Lyanna's son, it would not be a mystery.

Why should we care who Jon's parents are? Will Jon care? Who cares if he's legitimate?
Once one accepts that the evidence is conclusive and that Jon's parents are Rhaegar and Lyanna and that he is most probably legitimate, these become the important questions.

Previous editions:

“Lyanna + Rhaegar = Jon Thread” (thread one)

“Lyanna + Rhaegar = Jon Thread” (thread two)

“The Lyanna + Rhaegar = Jon thread (Part III)” (thread three)

“The Lyanna + Rhaegar = Jon thread (Part IV)” (thread four)

“The Lyanna + Rhaegar = Jon Thread (Part V)” (thread five)

“The Lyanna + Rhaegar = Jon Thread (Part VI)” (thread six)

“The Rhaegar + Lyanna = Jon Thread Part VII” (thread seven)

“The Rhaegar + Lyanna = Jon thread, Part VIII” (thread eight)

“The Rhaegar + Lyanna = Jon thread, Part IX” (thread nine)

“The Rhaegar + Lyanna =Jon Thread, Part X”(thread ten)

“The R+L=J thread, part XI” (thread eleven)

“The R+L=J thread, part XII” (thread twelve)

“R+L=J Part XXIII” (thread thirteen)

“R+L=J Part XXIV” (thread fourteen)

“R+L=J XXV” (thread fifteen)

“R+L=J v.16” (thread sixteen)

“R+L=J v.17” (thread seventeen)

“R+L=J v.18” (thread eighteen)

“R+L=J v.19” (thread nineteen)

“R+L=J v.20” (thread twenty)

“R+L=J v.21” (thread twenty-one)

“R+L=J v.22” (thread twenty-two)

“R+L=J v.22a” (thread twenty-two (a))

“R+L=J v.23” (thread twenty-three)

“R+L=J v.24” (thread twenty-four)

“R+L=J v.25” (thread twenty-five)

“R+L=J v.26” (thread twenty-six)

“R+L=J v.27” (thread twenty-seven)

“R+L=J v.28” (thread twenty-eight)

“R+L=J v.29” (thread twenty-nine)

“R+L=J v.30” (thread thirty)

“R+L=J v.31” (thread thirty-one)

“R+L=J v.32” (thread thirty-two)

“R+L=J #33” (thread thirty-three)

“R+L=J v.34” (thread thirty-four)

“R+L=J v.35” (thread thirty-five)

“R+L=J v.36” (thread thirty-six)

“R+L=J v.37” (thread thirty-seven)

“R+L=J v.38” (thread thirty-eight)

“R+L=J v.39” (thread thirty-nine)

"R+L=J v.40" (thread forty)

"R+L=J v. 41" (thread forty-one)

"R+L=J v.42" (thread forty-two)

"R+L=J v.43" (thread forty-three)

"R+L=J v.44" (thread forty-four)

"R+L=J v.45" (thread forty-five)

"R+L=J v.46" (thread forty-six)

"R+L=J v.47" (thread forty-seven)

"R+L=J v.48" (thread forty-eight)

"R+L=J v.49" (thread forty-nine)

"R+L=J v.50" (thread fifty)

"R+L=J v.51" (thread fifty-one)

"R+L=J v.52" (thread fifty-two)

"R+L=J v.53" (thread fifty-three)

"R+L=J v.54" (thread fifty=four)

"R+L=J v.55" (thread fifty-five)

"R+L=J v.56" (thread fifty-six)

"R+L=J v.57" (thread fifty-seven)

"R+L=J v 58" (thread fifty-eight)

"R+L=J v 59" (thread fifty-nine)

"R+L=J v 60" (thread sixty)

"R+L=J v 61" (thread sixty-one)

"R+L=J v 62" (thread sixty-two)

"R+L=J v 63" (thread sixty-three)

"R+L=J v 64" (thread sixty four)

"R+L=J v 65" (thread sixty five)

R+L=J v 66 (thread sixty-six)

"R+L=J v 67" (thread sixty-seven)

"R+L=J v 68" (thread sixty-eight)

"R+L=J v 69" (thread sixty-nine)

[Ygrain]

Fred of Asshai:

I think the point is that Connington does not say that taking two wives would be a bad idea for a Targaryen Prince. He says it is not possible.

Also, I find it kind of strange that some people think that Lyanna was too good to be Rhaegar's mistress but not too good to be Rhaegar's second wife; while at the same time thinking that Daenerys is not too good to be Daario's mistress but she is too good to be Aegon's second wife.

"We need the girl. We need the marriage. If Daenerys accepts our princeling and takes him for her consort, the Seven Kingdoms will do the same. Without her, the lords will only mock his claim and brand him a fraud and a pretender."

Daenerys has dragons, Aegon does not.

“Daenerys Targaryen may yet come home one day,” Connington told the Halfmaester. “Aegon must be free to marry her.”

If you don't see the difference, there's really nothing I can do for you.

[Fred of Ashai]

Fred of Asshai:

"We need the girl. We need the marriage. If Daenerys accepts our princeling and takes him for her consort, the Seven Kingdoms will do the same. Without her, the lords will only mock his claim and brand him a fraud and a pretender."

Daenerys has dragons, Aegon does not.

“Daenerys Targaryen may yet come home one day,” Connington told the Halfmaester. “Aegon must be free to marry her.”

If you don't see the difference, there's really nothing I can do for you.

The key part is that If Aegon marries a Westerosi Lady, he won't be "free" to marry Daenerys. That means that a prior marriage eliminates his ability to take a second wife.

It doesn't mean that people with dragons can have two spouses and people without dragons can't.

[Disputatious]

Ygrain: yup. This is one thing Homeless Harry has spot on. Jon Connington was not wrong to see him as less than a bold commander and vigorous leader for the Golden Company, but he nevertheless could not see the man's political insight, because, of course, he did not want to.

[Ygrain]

The key part is that If Aegon marries a Westerosi Lady, he won't be "free" to marry Daenerys. That means that a prior marriage eliminates his ability to take a second wife.

It doesn't mean that people with dragons can have two spouses and people without dragons can't.

Fixed that for you. Because he needs her, not the other way around. Her origin is without doubt. People wll flock to her because of the dragons. In other words, even though he theoretically has a better claim, she is in a better position. It is not a good idea to potentially alienate someone whom you need and who is in a better position, by having her share the post of queen with someone from a lesser house than hers.

[Winds of Winter blow cold]

Wow, I thought I was on the wrong thread for a minute!

[Whatever]

I think the point is that Connington does not say that taking two wives would be a bad idea for a Targaryen Prince. He says it is not possible.

Also, I find it kind of strange that some people think that Lyanna was too good to be Rhaegar's mistress but not too good to be Rhaegar's second wife; while at the same time thinking that Daenerys is not too good to be Daario's mistress but she is too good to be Aegon's second wife.

JonCon is saying that Dany is too powerful to insult. Also, it seems to me that she's not really Daario's mistress - more like the other way around ;)

PS: I'll miss number 69!

[Disputatious]

Fixed that for you. Because he needs her, not the other way around. Her origin is without doubt. People wll flock to her because of the dragons. In other words, even though he theoretically has a better claim, she is in a better position. It is not a good idea to potentially alienate someone whom you need and who is in a better position, by having her share the post of queen with someone from a lesser house than hers.

Arianne per chance ranks high enough. Her aunt might have become Queen had Rhaeger come back from the Trident and called the great council to set his father aside.

[Assumptions: either Lyanna does indeed die of childbed fever or Rhaegar elects to keep both marriages in an effort to keep Dorne on side.]

Also there is the possibility of some truly Martinesque bad karma: viz. the rumors of Dany's death arriving in the stormlands about the same time that Arianne does. What will Jon C. et al do then?

Finally, he will be horrified at his broken oaths, but Dany's kiss of approval (and a dragon) will go to Jon in exchange for marriage and children to continue House Targaryen. He may be able to cut his losses and avoid breaking the one about a throne by arranging to be Prince Consort in name at least.

(I was going to put in a little snark about "Dieser Kuss nicht der ganzen Welt" but trying to explain it would spoil it I suppose. The passage you want comes near the end of the finale of the Ninth symphony.

[Whatever]

Also there is the possibility of some truly Martinesque bad karma: viz. the rumors of Dany's death arriving in the stormlands about the same time that Arianne does. What will Jon C. et al do then?

I totally expect this to happen - no way Aegon is marrying Dany; they're going to end up fighting each other (especially after the news of Quentyn's death reaches Dorne). But IMO the WoW chapter teases

Aegon and Elia Sand

and he's not going to marry Arianne anyway.

Finally, he will be horrified at his broken oaths, but Dany's kiss of approval (and a dragon) will go to Jon in exchange for marriage and children to continue House Targaryen. He may be able to cut his losses and avoid breaking the one about a throne by arranging to be Prince Consort in name at least.

I don't get why people think Jon will marry Dany - even if it's proved in-universe that R+L=J, she's not going to want a male heir around to share her hardly-won power. Even if she were fine with Jon being around, Dany (thinks she) is barren and for this reason wouldn't want to marry a Targ when said Targ could marry someone else and actually have heirs.

​Last and not least, Jon wouldn't want to marry Dany - they probably wouldn't even stand each other, and Jon most definitely doesn't have the 'let's marry someone I don't like because it's my duty' that Dany and most nobles have.

[Disputatious]

Look here, Dany will not give Jon a choice, and Marwyn will put right what Mirri marred if indeed there really is anything needing to be put right. Assumption: Marwyn learned enough of Mirri's lore in exchange for teaching her the healing of the Citadel. What Jon wants is not going to matter. What she might do is fly to Greywater Watch on Drogon, collect Lord Howland, plop him down next to Jon, and then when Jon is thoroughly unnerved by what Howland has to say about his parentage, she gives him a passionate kiss and makes her proposal. Remember that she is more beautiful than Val and Jon is hardly immune to such beauty. She needs some facts to go on, but if this is what GRRM wants to happen he will find a way to see to it that she gets those facts, starting with the meaning of the Winter's Rose in the Wall, question answered in discussion between Marwyn, Tyrion, and Barristan, once they know about that bit from the HOTU.

[Ghost's Shadow]

Dany won't give Jon a choice? Lol.

And is this a J/D shipper thread now?

[Whatever]

Dany won't give Jon a choice? Lol.

Seconded so hard.

[Greymoon]

IIRC, Jorah Mormont says that Dany could have a polygamous marriage...that should point to the fact that polygamy is still lawful for Targaryens, or at the very least not entirely inconceivable...But, the very statement that Dany could marry twice, seems odd to me, since I don't believe we've heard of any Targaryen women having more than one husband...so...is this a case of unreliable POV character or is GRRM stretching the more "common" rules of polygamy, by having both polygyny and polyandry exist at the same time?

....Or might it be a case of "you have dragons so you can make up your own rules anyway"? or is it wishful thinking on Jorah's part, since Dany doesn't consider him a suitable spouse?

As for Dany marrying Jon...all I've got to say is :ack: my own pet theory is that Dany will fall head over heals for Darkstar (who IMHO is a bit like a Daario Naharis v.2)... and IF she ever learns that Lyanna had a child, I'd like to see her wasting precious time looking for a silver haired girl while Jon pretends to be oblivious... :P

I just don't see why Jon would want anything to do with his aunt; she's neither Arya, nor Sansa...just like fAegon can never replace Robb or Bran or Rickon... any alliance between Dany and Jon, or Jon and fAegon would IMO be purely political (against a common enemy) and certainly not motivated by blood ties and/or affection. But even if political, I really don't think Jon would ever agree to an incestuous marriage (IMO, Dany+Jon is only possible if Jon remains oblivious of his parentage).

Anyway...If Dany lands with an attitude of "You're all usurpers, the Iron Throne is mine by rights" I doubt Jon would take her seriously...though, he might wish to steal himself a dragon ;)

[Ygrain]

IIRC, Jorah Mormont says that Dany could have a polygamous marriage...that should point to the fact that polygamy is still lawful for Targaryens, or at the very least not entirely inconceivable...But, the very statement that Dany could marry twice, seems odd to me, since I don't believe we've heard of any Targaryen women having more than one husband...so...is this a case of unreliable POV character or is GRRM stretching the more "common" rules of polygamy, by having both polygyny and polyandry exist at the same time?

....Or might it be a case of "you have dragons so you can make up your own rules anyway"? or is it wishful thinking on Jorah's part, since Dany doesn't consider him a suitable spouse?

As for Dany marrying Jon...all I've got to say is :ack: my own pet theory is that Dany will fall head over heals for Darkstar (who IMHO is a bit like a Daario Naharis v.2)... and IF she ever learns that Lyanna had a child, I'd like to see her wasting precious time looking for a silver haired girl while Jon pretends to be oblivious... :P

I just don't see why Jon would want anything to do with his aunt; she's neither Arya, nor Sansa...just like fAegon can never replace Robb or Bran or Rickon... any alliance between Dany and Jon, or Jon and fAegon would IMO be purely political (against a common enemy) and certainly not motivated by blood ties and/or affection. But even if political, I really don't think Jon would ever agree to an incestuous marriage (IMO, Dany+Jon is only possible if Jon remains oblivious of his parentage).

Anyway...If Dany lands with an attitude of "You're all usurpers, the Iron Throne is mine by rights" I doubt Jon would take her seriously...though, he might wish to steal himself a dragon ;)

I think there might be a bit of everything - Jorah's wishful thinking, polygamy not being explicitely illegal, and the Targs making their own rules. Awhile ago, there was a discussion what exactly it was that prompted Aegon into polygamy when it was quite unusual even for Valyria, and it was speculated that the custom may have been used when the situation demanded it for the sake of maintaining the lineage - at the time of the Conquest, Aegon and his sisters were the only Targaryens, so perhaps its goal was to make the dynasty stronger? (another suggestion was that it had something to do with the prophecy and the two moons-wives). If this is the case, then Dany is in the same situation - the last Targaryen who must ensure that the dynasty prospers again.

Concerning Jon and Dany, I don't see him falling for his aunt, either, but what if they meet and fall for each other before the reveal? That would make R+L a plot point on yet another level, because I don't see Jon able to maintain the relationship after that. - Sort of like Scafloc and Freda in Anderson's Broken Sword, or Túrin and Nienor, and all the way back to Kullervo and his sister in Kalevala.

[The guy from the Vale]

I think there might be a bit of everything - Jorah's wishful thinking, polygamy not being explicitely illegal, and the Targs making their own rules. Awhile ago, there was a discussion what exactly it was that prompted Aegon into polygamy when it was quite unusual even for Valyria, and it was speculated that the custom may have been used when the situation demanded it for the sake of maintaining the lineage - at the time of the Conquest, Aegon and his sisters were the only Targaryens, so perhaps its goal was to make the dynasty stronger? (another suggestion was that it had something to do with the prophecy and the two moons-wives). If this is the case, then Dany is in the same situation - the last Targaryen who must ensure that the dynasty prospers again.

Concerning Jon and Dany, I don't see him falling for his aunt, either, but what if they meet and fall for each other before the reveal? That would make R+L a plot point on yet another level, because I don't see Jon able to maintain the relationship after that. - Sort of like Scafloc and Freda in Anderson's Broken Sword, or Túrin and Nienor, and all the way back to Kullervo and his sister in Kalevala.

... Or Oedipous and Iokaste. The mythological overtones are quite strong there ;)

[Disputatious]

Dany won't give Jon a choice? Lol.

And is this a J/D shipper thread now?

And why do you think she will? And no it is not such a thread.

But remember her regret explicitly stated at the prospect of being the last of her house.

[FrozenFire3]

I think there might be a bit of everything - Jorah's wishful thinking, polygamy not being explicitely illegal, and the Targs making their own rules. Awhile ago, there was a discussion what exactly it was that prompted Aegon into polygamy when it was quite unusual even for Valyria, and it was speculated that the custom may have been used when the situation demanded it for the sake of maintaining the lineage - at the time of the Conquest, Aegon and his sisters were the only Targaryens, so perhaps its goal was to make the dynasty stronger? (another suggestion was that it had something to do with the prophecy and the two moons-wives). If this is the case, then Dany is in the same situation - the last Targaryen who must ensure that the dynasty prospers again.

Concerning Jon and Dany, I don't see him falling for his aunt, either, but what if they meet and fall for each other before the reveal? That would make R+L a plot point on yet another level, because I don't see Jon able to maintain the relationship after that. - Sort of like Scafloc and Freda in Anderson's Broken Sword, or Túrin and Nienor, and all the way back to Kullervo and his sister in Kalevala.

... Or Oedipous and Iokaste. The mythological overtones are quite strong there ;)

And such tragic overtones match perfectly the bittersweet ending GRRM's alluded to... Poor, poor Jon :crying:

[Greymoon]

Concerning Jon and Dany, I don't see him falling for his aunt, either, but what if they meet and fall for each other before the reveal? That would make R+L a plot point on yet another level, because I don't see Jon able to maintain the relationship after that. - Sort of like Scafloc and Freda in Anderson's Broken Sword, or Túrin and Nienor, and all the way back to Kullervo and his sister in Kalevala.

Yeah... though it seems to me there is more chance of Jon falling for Val than Dany. Not only because Dany is rather prejudiced against Starks, (and I doubt they’d get along either way...) but also because she is on the other side of the world right now...and Val is so very close...and if not Val there's plenty of other women (or men, Satin? :) ) in Westeros that are closer to Jon and the Wall. I could see a political match happening between Jon and Asha for example, to undermine Euron Greyjoy...:

It’s sort of what I imagine Stannis might offer as alternative for Jon after the whole stabbing debacle. I wouldn’t be too surprised if Stannis (granted he lives and Jon does too) decided to reiterate his offer on Winterfell and a wife. Especially since in the Theon sample chapter Stannis considers Jon "loyal," thus IMO, Stannis might wish to "reward" Jon’s service in a way that might benefit them both. I know there's lots of GNC speculations, but Stannis is still in the game as far as we know - I don't see Jon making a bid for the crown in the North as long as Stannis lives - or as long as Stannis “behaves.”

And yes, I know Asha is married too, but it was never consummated and she really doesn't care - what's a war prisoner to do? She might like the alternative of marrying Jon better than keeping her chains.

But if things go from bad to worse for both the north and the Tyrells, a political match with Margaery doesn't seem so improbable either - food and wealth would certainly be welcome even if she is "unlucky"...or there could be a match with Jeyne Westerling though that'd be a terrible idea, even if not entirely impossible if motivated by honor and guilt towards Robb and his widow.

[Han Snow]

I think there might be a bit of everything - Jorah's wishful thinking, polygamy not being explicitely illegal, and the Targs making their own rules. Awhile ago, there was a discussion what exactly it was that prompted Aegon into polygamy when it was quite unusual even for Valyria, and it was speculated that the custom may have been used when the situation demanded it for the sake of maintaining the lineage - at the time of the Conquest, Aegon and his sisters were the only Targaryens, so perhaps its goal was to make the dynasty stronger? (another suggestion was that it had something to do with the prophecy and the two moons-wives). If this is the case, then Dany is in the same situation - the last Targaryen who must ensure that the dynasty prospers again.

Concerning Jon and Dany, I don't see him falling for his aunt, either, but what if they meet and fall for each other before the reveal? That would make R+L a plot point on yet another level, because I don't see Jon able to maintain the relationship after that. - Sort of like Scafloc and Freda in Anderson's Broken Sword, or Túrin and Nienor, and all the way back to Kullervo and his sister in Kalevala.

This could stand if it weren't for Martin's outlook and fascination with incest. Dany, I imagine would be cool with it, and we can't really know about Jon. I doubt he will be all himself again after the stabbing and especially after the inevitable crisis of identity depending on when, where and how he finds about his real parents. His old morality might be skewed more then a little by then and decisions that would be unexpected for him now should not be unexpected then. Besides, I believe he'd marry Dany for the good of the realm even with his present mindset but knowing who his parents were. My personal guess is, if Jon is gonna be romantically involved with someone again before the end of the series, it's gonna be Val.

On a completely unrelated side note, I checked the first threads of this theory pinned above and holy cow, WOW! People were jaded with it back in 2006!!! Seriously jaded! And silly little newbie me thought it was a relatively new occurrence! Reading posts by certain people, but mostly one called Artanaro were like :bang: . Also, this post by the forum moderator Werthead back on the fourth page of the first thread shocked me:

So during the BwB London meet-up earlier this evening, GRRM's Significant Other, Parris, turned up (possibly one of the nicest people you will ever meet). During discussions about the series, she reiterated a point that she has made before, that R+L=J is an extremely obvious thing to do in the series, and George doesn't do obvious, leaving the likelihood of that theory being correct much reduced.

This is really surprising and could be interpreted in a few different ways.

There was also this gem:

Do any of you people read mystery novels?

In mystery novels this is how it goes:

A: Author gives you the details to work it out, and if you don't you go "oh, clever!" and if you do you go "woo, I'm smart (but a bit of an obvious letdown)"

B: Author doesn't give you the details to work it out. Instead gives you unreliable narrators or don't reveal important details, then reveal these things at the end and solve the mystery at the same time.

I like mystery novels. I've read quite a lot of them. And time and time again that I've 'solved' the mystery before the end. This is what happens when you read books of the type A. If there is a solution to the mystery hidden in the text then (some) readers will find it.

What people who are saying R+L=J is true are saying is that GRRM writes his mysteries as type A. He sets the scene in such a way that when you take everything into account there is only one solution that fits. Moreover each mystery actually has a solution, they don't remain unsolved.

People who suggest that it's unreasonable for someone to claim that they have solved the mystery of Jon's parentage don't subscribe to this belief. They believe that GRRM is deliberately withholding the clues with which the mystery could be solved, and will forever withhold them, right up to the time he solves it. This is a mystery of type B.

Me, I believe that GRRM writes his mysteries as type A. Anyone could work out who Arstan was before he unveiled himself if they bothered to take a short breath and think about it. Many will not have, but that doesn't mean it wasn't obvious (and true) before it was unveiled. The same applies to the Sphinx. To dispute this is to be a bit silly, I would suggest.

Prophecy plays a big part in ASoIaF, both explicitly and implicitly. You have it in dreams, in fires, in the house of the undying, in song, and a number of other sources. GRRM loves hinting and past and future events through such means and metaphors and only a blind reader would ignore the relationship between prophecy and events in the novels. Given this we can extract certain clues about certain mysteries from a whole host of sources. This is not fitting things together to make them fit together, it is fitting them together because GRRM has placed them there deliberately so that will will play with them and puzzle things out.

And unless GRRM is a bad writer when the mysteries are finally solved they will be consistent with the clues that he has put forward. The suggestions and hints that he has strewn around the novel so that nothing comes out of left field and makes us go "oh bullshit, that makes no sense at all!" (like Syrio turning up alive all of a sudden, for example). The answer will make sense.

So sure, argue that R+L=J is not true all you want, but you have to put something in its place to do that. You cannot argue against something on the grounds that "it hasn't happened yet so you don't know", otherwise you'll have to take arguments like "everyone in the realm is actually a faceless man working for the gods entertainment, like a game of chess" seriously. Some things don't have to be taken seriously because they do not fit with what we know of the story, and some things do.

So yeah, make a thread about how R+L=J should get less airtime, but do so on the grounds that there are other arguments that fit the novels better, or there are real problems left over that R+L=J does not and cannot explain, but don't do so on any other basis.

[Ygrain]

... Or Oedipous and Iokaste. The mythological overtones are quite strong there ;)

You mean, like the two brothers fighting each other to the death? :P

ETA: And self-fulfilling prophecies, because the people concerned acted to prevent them?