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A Game of Two Players – Varys vs. Doran Martell


Mithras

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This work turned out to be very big and I felt like it would be best to post it in parts and see the reactions of people. So, any opinion is well received.



“This is no longer a game for two players, if ever it was. Stannis Baratheon and Lysa Arryn have fled beyond my reach, and the whispers say they are gathering swords around them. The Knight of Flowers writes Highgarden, urging his lord father to send his sister to court. The girl is a maid of fourteen, sweet and beautiful and tractable, and Lord Renly and Ser Loras intend that Robert should bed her, wed her, and make a new queen. Littlefinger… the gods only know what game Littlefinger is playing. Yet Lord Stark’s the one who troubles my sleep. He has the bastard, he has the book, and soon enough he’ll have the truth. And now his wife has abducted Tyrion Lannister, thanks to Littlefinger’s meddling. Lord Tywin will take that for an outrage, and Jaime has a queer affection for the Imp. If the Lannisters move north, that will bring the Tullys in as well. Delay, you say. Make haste, I reply. Even the finest of jugglers cannot keep a hundred balls in the air forever.”



In AGoT, Arya overhears the dialogue between Varys and Illyrio. We learn that they are involved in a big conspiracy. This is the closest we can get from these two being honest and speaking true. Every other information they give should be analyzed carefully and suspiciously, especially about themselves. Because everybody lies about themselves and these two are grand conspirators, which means they lie tenfold about themselves.



Varys says the whole thing was a game for two players at the beginning and then the things got complicated. He mentions all the players and pawns (including those who consider themselves as players). But he does not say a bit about Doran Martell. We know that he is a player and we know that he plays to win (SSM). That is why; I will present Doran as the big player Varys referred at the beginning.



Doran’s Game (1st Round)



Doran plays to win, whether at cyvasse or the game of thrones.



Doran’s main objective is to restore the exiled Targaryens to the IT and lay waste to the murderers of Elia and her children.



“For Lord Tywin and the Lannisters you always had the forbearance of Baelor the Blessed, but for your own blood, none.”


“You mistake patience for forbearance. I have worked at the downfall of Tywin Lannister since the day they told me of Elia and her children. It was my hope to strip him of all that he held most dear before I killed him, but it would seem his dwarf son has robbed me of that pleasure. I take some small solace in knowing that he died a cruel death at the hands of the monster that he himself begot.”




The princess remembered how her father had pressed the onyx cyvasse piece into her palm, his voice hoarse and low as he confessed his plan. A long and perilous voyage, with an uncertain welcome at its end, he had said. He has gone to bring us back our heart’s desire. Vengeance. Justice. Fire and blood.




Doran acted in secrecy because had Robert caught the scent of his schemes, he would have come down to Dorne with his warhammer. Doran does not play like that. And I believe Doran used his contacts across the Narrow Sea to keep track of the beggar king and the princess.



“Prince Oberyn’s presence here is unfortunate. His brother is a cautious man, a reasoned man, subtle, deliberate, even indolent to a degree. He is a man who weighs the consequences of every word and every action.



Tywin is an able politician. His words about Doran should tell us something. And note that whatever he knows about Doran is just a small portion. That means Doran has quite a big pair. These two remarks also prove Doran's mastery in politics.



“I never meant her harm,” Arianne insisted. “If Hotah had not interfered...”


“...you would have crowned Myrcella queen, to raise a rebellion against her brother. Instead of an ear, she would have lost her life.”


“Only if we lost.”


If? The word is when. Dorne cannot hope to win a war against the Iron Throne, not alone.”



“My niece Myrcella is in Dorne, as it happens. And I have half a mind to make her a queen.”


Illyrio smiled as his serving men spooned out bowls of black cherries in sweet cream for them both. “What has this poor child done to you that you would wish her dead?”


“Even a kinslayer is not required to slay all his kin,” said Tyrion, wounded. “Queen her, I said. Not kill her.”


The cheesemonger spooned up cherries. “In Volantis they use a coin with a crown on one face and a death’s-head on the other. Yet it is the same coin. To queen her is to kill her. Dorne might rise for Myrcella, but Dorne alone is not enough. If you are as clever as our friend insists, you know this.”


Tyrion looked at the fat man with new interest. He is right on both counts. To queen her is to kill her. And I knew that.



"But Oberyn has always been half-mad.”


“Is it true he tried to raise Dorne for Viserys?”


“No one speaks of it, but yes. Ravens flew and riders rode, with what secret messages I never knew. Jon Arryn sailed to Sunspear to return Prince Lewyn’s bones, sat down with Prince Doran, and ended all the talk of war. But Robert never went to Dorne thereafter, and Prince Oberyn seldom left it.”



Tywin never knew what messages those ravens and riders carried but I bet Varys knew them, or guessed them with a good certainty. We learn more of these messages later.



The parchment was written in the Common Tongue. The queen unrolled it slowly, studying the seals and signatures. When she saw the name Ser Willem Darry, her heart beat a little faster. She read it over once, and then again.


“May we know what it says, Your Grace?” asked Ser Barristan.


“It is a secret pact,” Dany said, “made in Braavos when I was just a little girl. Ser Willem Darry signed for us, the man who spirited my brother and myself away from Dragonstone before the Usurper’s men could take us. Prince Oberyn Martell signed for Dorne, with the Sealord of Braavos as witness.” She handed the parchment to Ser Barristan, so he might read it for himself. “The alliance is to be sealed by a marriage, it says. In return for Dorne’s help overthrowing the Usurper, my brother Viserys is to take Prince Doran’s daughter Arianne for his queen.”



Doran has connections across the Narrow Sea. The Archon of Tyrosh has a close relationship with him. The Archon sent his daughter to the watergardens to play with Arianne. Doran wanted to send Arianne to Tyrosh in return so that she and Viserys could secretly meet. His wife objected to that.



“That green-haired girl was the Archon’s daughter. I was to have sent you to Tyrosh in her place. You would have served the Archon as a cupbearer and met with your betrothed in secret, but your mother threatened to harm herself if I stole another of her children, and I... I could not do that to her.”



By the way we should note that Doran often uses these kinds of excuses to hide his real intentions. Daughter of the Archon and Arianne swap would hide the secret meeting. All those old men he seemingly tried to marry Arianne were to hide that she was already betrothed.



She [Arianne] was lost, confounded. Promised. I was promised. “Who is it? Who have I been betrothed to, all these years?”


“It makes no matter. He is dead.”


That left her more baffled than ever. “The old ones are so frail. Was it a broken hip, a chill, the gout?”


“It was a pot of molten gold. We princes make our careful plans and the gods smash them all awry.” Prince Doran made a weary gesture with a chafed red hand.



Varys’ Game (1st Round)



On the other hand, Varys and Illyrio are working to install fAegon to the IT. Therefore, they want to overthrow the current regime just like Doran. But there is a problem for them. Doran is going for Viserys and Dany. He would never accept fAegon as long as they exist.



For Varys, it is unacceptable to have Dorne as fAegon’s enemies. Not only he needs Dornish spears, but also it is much more important that fAegon should not fight with his uncles and cousins; rather he should be acknowledged and embraced by them. His false claim can never be allowed to be weakened like this.



I previously assumed that they know the arrangement made by Oberyn and Darry. So Varys must break it and that he did with an excellent stroke.



We should remember that the brother of the Archon of Tyrosh was also present in the party where Illyrio presented Dany to Drogo.



Illyrio whispered to them. “Those three are Drogo’s bloodriders, there,” he said. “By the pillar is Khal Moro, with his son Rhogoro. The man with the green beard is brother to the Archon of Tyrosh, and the man behind him is Ser Jorah Mormont.”



He noted the “loyalty and generosity” of Illyrio to the exiled Targaryens. But none of them knows the Dothraki or the man Viserys became as well as Illyrio and Varys. The Archon’s brother assumed that Viserys was trying to gather an army to reclaim his father’s throne, so he sold Dany in return to have a mighty Dothraki army. He must have reported all these to Doran.



In fact, this marriage plan was planted to Viserys’ head by Illyrio and it was their death sentence. Illyrio played reverse psychology on Viserys and sent him to the Dothraki Sea to die, as well as the weak Dany. Thus, both Targaryens were supposed to perish and Doran would have no option other than fAegon. In that case, it does not matter to him so much whether the boy is false or not. The boy would still give him vengeance and the important seats he desired.



The fat man grew pensive. “Daenerys was half a child when she came to me. If truth be told, I did not think Daenerys would survive for long amongst the horselords.”


“That did not stop you selling her to Khal Drogo …”


“Dothraki neither buy nor sell. Say rather that her brother Viserys gave her to Drogo to win the khal’s friendship. A vain young man, and greedy. Had I not taken the precaution of posting guards upon her door, Viserys might have undone years of planning.”


“He sounds an utter fool.”


“Viserys was Mad Aerys’s son, just so.”



“Illyrio does not play cyvasse.”


No, thought the dwarf, he plays the game of thrones, and you and Griff and Duck are only pieces, to be moved where he will and sacrificed at need, just as he sacrificed Viserys.



Even if Dany survived, the Westerosi way of thinking would blame her for arranging the death of her brother to claim the IT on her own. The Arianne gift chapter presses hard on this matter.




The secret pact that Prince Doran had made all those years called for Arianne to be wed to Prince Viserys, not Quentyn to Daenerys. It had all come undone on the Dothraki sea, when he was murdered. Crowned with a pot of molten gold. "He was killed by a Dothraki khal," said Arianne. "The dragon queen’s own husband."


"So I’ve heard. What of it?"


"Just… why did Daenerys let it happen? Viserys was her brother. All that remained of her own blood."


"The Dothraki are a savage folk. Who can know why they kill? Perhaps Viserys wiped his arse with the wrong hand."


Perhaps, thought Arianne, or perhaps Daenerys realized that once her brother was crowned and wed to me, she would be doomed to spend the rest of her life sleeping in a tent and smelling like a horse. "She is the Mad King’s daughter," the princess said. "How do we do know —”


"We cannot know," Ser Daemon said. "We can only hope."




As a result, Varys won this round and Arianne is running to the welcoming arms of fAegon.



Doran’s Game (2nd Round)



Now that Viserys is dead, Oberyn is dead, Dany is the queen of Meereen, Doran had to act. And he had to act fast because he was aware of the turmoil Dany created in the slave trade and the Volantene were preparing to put an end to her. So he summoned Quentyn to Watergardens and told him of the old plan. Quentyn was to get Dany and turn back before the Volantene crush her.



Varys’ Game (2nd Round)



I don’t have any proof of this but since the departure of Quentyn was noted by the orphans in the Planky Town, I assume Varys also learned the secret departure of Quentyn. That can only mean he is going to Dany and Varys cannot allow that. I believe the pirate attack on Quentyn’s ship was under the command of Varys and they were supposed to kill them all.



Nonetheless, Quentyn proved to be disappointment and Doran lost this round as well.



I am working on Doran's and Varys' next moves, the political situation at Tyrosh, Myr and Lys and any other thing to reveal the dance between Varys and Doran.


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Very well written.



We know more about Doran due to family ties and the amount of time George spends on the Martells and I'd say you're spot on in your assessment.



Varys however remains too much of a mystery Even if you believe the theories that the Cheesemonger fathered (f)Aegon with a maternal Blackfyre we just don't know enough about Varys. What could he gain by placing a Blackfyre on the IT? All we think we know about the Eunuch is that he supposedly hates magic. If he did somehow figure out that Valaryia and Dragons are tied to magic why would he want to place a Blackfyre on the throne?


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Very well written.

We know more about Doran due to family ties and the amount of time George spends on the Martells and I'd say you're spot on in your assessment.

Varys however remains too much of a mystery Even if you believe the theories that the Cheesemonger fathered (f)Aegon with a maternal Blackfyre we just don't know enough about Varys. What could he gain by placing a Blackfyre on the IT? All we think we know about the Eunuch is that he supposedly hates magic. If he did somehow figure out that Valaryia and Dragons are tied to magic why would he want to place a Blackfyre on the throne?

Varys must be blood-related to fAegon. People posted tonnes of stuff about that. Majority of the people suggest that he is a Blackfyre, I think he is a descendant of Aerion Brightflame. At the beginning of the post, I suggested that we should take everything Varys and Illyrio said about themselves very carefully. There are many textual evidences suggesting that Varys knows and uses magic. So I think he lied about that part.

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I'd argue that Doran's motivations are less about the Targaryens, and more about restoring the Martells as the 'secondary royal family' of the Seven Kingdoms, and erasing the lingering damage done to his family by avenging her and her children. Rhaegar pissed all over Doran and his family's honor, and Aerys blackmailed them for them soldiers and left Ellia in incredible danger at King's Landing so she'd remain a hostage of his. If I were Doran, I would not give a flying flip about the Targaryens.



This is about 'vengeance, justice, fire and blood'. Viserys could have done that if he ever got his army and marched on Westeros (hence the arrangement. Somehow I doubt Doran would have let it go through though if he remained a powerless exile). When Viserys died, and before they knew about Daenerys and her dragons, Oberyn was trying to get ahold of the heirs to the North and Westerlands under Myrcella's banner (coincidentally betrothed to Trystane Martell). When they did discover Daenerys and her dragons, he sent Quentyn off to marry her instead. Yes, Targaryen restoration was the goal for a couple plans, but they held the caveat that it was Targaryen restoration -with- a Martell beside them.


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Varys must be blood-related to fAegon. People posted tonnes of stuff about that. Majority of the people suggest that he is a Blackfyre, I think he is a descendant of Aerion Brightflame. At the beginning of the post, I suggested that we should take everything Varys and Illyrio said about themselves very carefully. There are many textual evidences suggesting that Varys knows and uses magic. So I think he lied about that part.

I agree about Varys using magic, there are indeed a lot of hints about that.

However, I do not agree about him being a Blackfyre or related to Aegon.

We do have pretty solid evidence, suggesting that Aegon is a Blackfyre descendant. Illyrio's relationship to Serra, his line about the male line of House Blackfyre being extinct, "black or red, a dragon is still a dragon," him being very fond of Aegon and sad to letting him go, the thing about the black iron dragonhead washing back up on the shore red with rust, prophecies about the "mummer's dragon," Jon Connington wondering what Bittersteel's skull "has to grin about" when he and Aegon meet up with the Golden Company etc. etc...

... there's lots of that.

There is, however, no direct textual evidence connecting Varys to House Blackfyre. All these theories just come from people trying to make sense of his involvement in all this. "Well, what could be his motive? He must be related to Aegon."

I wouldn't be so quick with this.

What Varys has done throughout all the books, is letting people think that he's on their side, but instead he uses them for his own game. I don't see any reason why we - still two books away from the end - should jump to the conclusion "Well, now we finally know what his true motivation is" when he really could still be playing a deeper game.

There's still much mystery about this character, for example about his involvement in magic. Why not wait and see, before we pin a definite motive on him?

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I want to believe that Illirio send Dany and Viserys with the dothraki to die, but i get stuck on the dragon eggs. Why would he give them as a gift? We are talking about a very expensive gift. He would not give them without a reason. Only thing that seems logical is that he is playing some type of double game, keeping his options open.


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Very interesting read. Vary's is so completely mysterious, I wonder when we will have more light shed on him.


To be honest I just think that Varys/Illyrio are on a bit of a power trip after literally coming from the bottom. I am of the opinion that the basically just want to see how far they can go, and as they cannot become king themselves placing a king of their choosing/manipulation on the iron throne is essentially as far as they can go. I don't think they have any really specific loyalties.


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Varys must be blood-related to fAegon. People posted tonnes of stuff about that. Majority of the people suggest that he is a Blackfyre, I think he is a descendant of Aerion Brightflame. At the beginning of the post, I suggested that we should take everything Varys and Illyrio said about themselves very carefully. There are many textual evidences suggesting that Varys knows and uses magic. So I think he lied about that part.

Agreed that Varys may be lying but it's just too much of a stretch to say he is a Blackfyre. And yes while we can't trust much of anything Varys says it seems like he is so careful about revealing anything that I'm willing to tentatively accept that he really doesn't like magic. Combine that with the fact that the HBO show-runners know the broad strokes of ASoIaF and the fact that they mentioned Varys disdain for magic on two separate occasions if he's lying, which he may be, they're selling it really well.

As to usage of magic I thought Kevan's epilogue in DwD made it clear what the little birds really are add that to the fact that magic as we know it is split between The Old Gods/WeirNet or The Red God where is the evidence that Varys has been practicing or able to practice either?

I agree about Varys using magic, there are indeed a lot of hints about that.

However, I do not agree about him being a Blackfyre or related to Aegon.

We do have pretty solid evidence, suggesting that Aegon is a Blackfyre descendant. Illyrio's relationship to Serra, his line about the male line of House Blackfyre being extinct, "black or red, a dragon is still a dragon," him being very fond of Aegon and sad to letting him go, the thing about the black iron dragonhead washing back up on the shore red with rust, prophecies about the "mummer's dragon," Jon Connington wondering what Bittersteel's skull "has to grin about" when he and Aegon meet up with the Golden Company etc. etc...

... there's lots of that.

There is, however, no direct textual evidence connecting Varys to House Blackfyre. All these theories just come from people trying to make sense of his involvement in all this. "Well, what could be his motive? He must be related to Aegon."

I wouldn't be so quick with this.

What Varys has done throughout all the books, is letting people think that he's on their side, but instead he uses them for his own game. I don't see any reason why we - still two books away from the end - should jump to the conclusion "Well, now we finally know what his true motivation is" when he really could still be playing a deeper game.

There's still much mystery about this character, for example about his involvement in magic. Why not wait and see, before we pin a definite motive on him?

Good points Rooseman, please don't skin Old Nan. I am open to the fact that The Cheesmonger bedded a She-Blackfyre to make (f)Aegon or simply supports him. Also don't think we've got a firm grasp on Varys so it's best to say he's an operator and a mystery but we don't really know what he's after.

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I wouldn't be so quick with this.

What Varys has done throughout all the books, is letting people think that he's on their side, but instead he uses them for his own game. I don't see any reason why we - still two books away from the end - should jump to the conclusion "Well, now we finally know what his true motivation is" when he really could still be playing a deeper game.

I agree with this. I think everyone's very quick to assume that Varys is a Blaxckfyre and that's why he's supporting Aegon. I actually think it's quite unlikely that Varys is motivated by a sense of family loyalty - isn't that a bit out of character?

I also don't think we should assume that Varys and Illyrio have the exact same motives. They're two of the least trustworthy characters in the books, and I wouldn't be surprised if they're trying to double-cross each other.

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I agree with this. I think everyone's very quick to assume that Varys is a Blaxckfyre and that's why he's supporting Aegon. I actually think it's quite unlikely that Varys is motivated by a sense of family loyalty - isn't that a bit out of character?

I also don't think we should assume that Varys and Illyrio have the exact same motives. They're two of the least trustworthy characters in the books, and I wouldn't be surprised if they're trying to double-cross each other.

Exactly.

From the very beginning, Varys has been the lone spider. No family, no loyalties, no penis.

With Littlefinger, his driving motivation has been hinted at since AGoT, only the extent of what he'd actually go through and about his involvement in the Game has been surprising. But we're able to make a pretty good guess about what motivates him.

But with Varys... Why all this aura of mystery, if the payoff is just "Oh, it was family loyalties"?

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Did Doran lose the second round? With Quentyn dead or alive, he has made it clear to Daenerys that Dorne can be her ally. Quentyn is not the only Martell able to marry Daenerys. Perhaps the only point in sending Quentyn to her was to make it clear that Dorne is on her side.

When Dany returns, things will be quite different. Arianne will be married to fAegon. The news of Quentys's death will be twisted by Gerris Drinkwater. He will say that Dany fed Quentyn to her dragon. By that time Doran will be dead. The envoys Dany will send to Dorne with Quentyn's bones will be killed by the Sand Snakes. I think Yronwoods will declare for Dany because Archibald is called true steel by Barristan. He will tell the truth to Lord Yronwood. Since they are the main antagonists of Martells in Dorne, Tyrion will have them as allies.

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I want to believe that Illirio send Dany and Viserys with the dothraki to die, but i get stuck on the dragon eggs. Why would he give them as a gift? We are talking about a very expensive gift. He would not give them without a reason. Only thing that seems logical is that he is playing some type of double game, keeping his options open.

Those were only expensive petrified stones. A rich man like Illyrio (and "loyal" to the king) could not have given a lesser gift. That could be seen as unfitting and suspicious by Viserys/Dany but Drogo would certainly take that as an insult. Drogo was not a man to be insulted.

Besides, the Dothraki do not trade, they give and take gifts. As for the rich presents of Illyrio and his trouble arranging this wedding, I am sure that Drogo gave him expensive gifts too.

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I wonder why Varys never approached Doran. I feel like he had to know Dorn was always on the edge of open rebellion and "hey your nephew is alive and we're trying to get him back on the thrown" is a good opening line (whether faegon is real or not.)

“No one ever trusted Rattleshirt but fools. Snow’s not that."

Same argument goes with Varys. And Doran above all takes no risks. How can he trust the fate of Dorne to this eunuch?

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