[TWoW spoilers] Elia Sand will be the one to commit Dorne to Aegon’s cause {long read}

[Rogue Leader]

On 15.2.2014 at 2:46 PM, LittleDragon8 said:

... the real danger comes from 14 year old Elia Sand.

... Later during their travels, Elia is found making out with Feathers, who is stated to be twice as old as she is... Could it be that Elia would use hers on Feathers to gain access to the ravens? The ravens that are actually key to the possible involvement of Dorne in the war, and a chance to finally have their revenge? 

That's what I fear. Elia will use the last raven to write Doran and Arianne will learn to late and can't to anything, because she has no way to inform Doran in time.

[Hos the Hostage]

On 2/16/2014 at 7:46 AM, LittleDragon8 said:

But why would Elia come on to Feathers? Arianne is travelling with three knights. All three of them are described as attractive men. Why would Elia turn her attention to the man taking care of their birds?

Ever since reading the Arianne II synopsis, I have wondered what did Elia see in Feathers, especially when men like Daemon Sand was around. If there was anything attractive about Feathers, Arianne would have noted it (even if he was not her type). Your post gives a viable answer. I don't think Elia is smart enough to get the right code-word right, though. More like she will send 'war' and Doran will wait.

It was clear from AFFC that Sand Snakes have a mind of their own and no concern about the consequences unless it was peace. Even if Nym and Tyene are going to KL on Doran's order, there is no telling what they'd do to Tommen - maybe they'll kill Tommen because Doran did not tell them not to kill Tommen, just like how Tywin did not tell Gregor not to kill Elia. Elia Sand is no different and to make matters worse, she has no idea about her sisters mission or the extent of Doran's plans. She will think it her opportunity to do for Dorne was everyone else (Doran, Oberyn, even her elder sisters) failed to, and take some rash course of actions.

On 11/12/2015 at 11:17 AM, AerionBrightflameII said:

In my experience a young male, closely guarded and shielded, quite likely a virgin from what Duck said about JonCon keeping him away from Whores in Volantis would find a 14-15 year old bastard girl who smells like horse more attractive than the voluptuous busty but even more lusty true born Arianne heir to SunSpear?? Sorry but im not convinced..

In the conventional sense, Arianne is more attractive than Elia, but we don't exactly know about Aegon's tastes - maybe he will feel intimidated by Arianne and decides to keep aloof. Elia is more playful, younger than him and hence more 'approachable'. And he won't expect it to cause an attraction strong enough to take her as lover (Elia might change things).

Another thing is there is no predicting Arianne's tastes. She has admitted to have a soft spot for pretty boys, and Aegon is undoubtedly pretty. She has also expressed disappointment on Quentyn becoming king consort instead of her becoming queen. Simple sibling rivalry may cause her to seduce Aegon, but the Arianne we see in the two TWOW chapters are much more matured than the AFFC Arianne, and the Darkstar incident must have taught her to be wary of pretty boys causing her to make diplomatic blunders.

[zalim]

doran is playing to win

he wants the throne for house martel and dornish law in westeros 

thats when he will win the got 

 

[Masha]

I was reading recent Bryndenfish essay on Arianne's motivation. And I am pretty sure that Elia will have nothing to do with it, she is just minor annoyance. Arianne will be falling hook and sinker for Aegon and his cause

[Whitering]

Well written, persuasive, kudos. This could absolutely happen, and Aegon is likely to be enchanted by Elia, since he has his own wild streak and is near the same age.

[Isobel Harper]

On 7/31/2016 at 1:29 AM, Hos the Hostage said:

Ever since reading the Arianne II synopsis, I have wondered what did Elia see in Feathers, especially when men like Daemon Sand was around. If there was anything attractive about Feathers, Arianne would have noted it (even if he was not her type). Your post gives a viable answer. I don't think Elia is smart enough to get the right code-word right, though. More like she will send 'war' and Doran will wait.

It was clear from AFFC that Sand Snakes have a mind of their own and no concern about the consequences unless it was peace. Even if Nym and Tyene are going to KL on Doran's order, there is no telling what they'd do to Tommen - maybe they'll kill Tommen because Doran did not tell them not to kill Tommen, just like how Tywin did not tell Gregor not to kill Elia. Elia Sand is no different and to make matters worse, she has no idea about her sisters mission or the extent of Doran's plans. She will think it her opportunity to do for Dorne was everyone else (Doran, Oberyn, even her elder sisters) failed to, and take some rash course of actions.

In the conventional sense, Arianne is more attractive than Elia, but we don't exactly know about Aegon's tastes - maybe he will feel intimidated by Arianne and decides to keep aloof. Elia is more playful, younger than him and hence more 'approachable'. And he won't expect it to cause an attraction strong enough to take her as lover (Elia might change things).

Another thing is there is no predicting Arianne's tastes. She has admitted to have a soft spot for pretty boys, and Aegon is undoubtedly pretty. She has also expressed disappointment on Quentyn becoming king consort instead of her becoming queen. Simple sibling rivalry may cause her to seduce Aegon, but the Arianne we see in the two TWOW chapters are much more matured than the AFFC Arianne, and the Darkstar incident must have taught her to be wary of pretty boys causing her to make diplomatic blunders.

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I don't think Elia is smart enough to get the right code-word right, though. More like she will send 'war' and Doran will wait.

I agree with you!  Dragon vs War was communicated verbally. No way anyone could figure that out.  

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It was clear from AFFC that Sand Snakes have a mind of their own and no concern about the consequences unless it was peace.

I disagree with you here.  Even the way you describe the Sand Snakes motives contradicts this.  They want vengeance, which only brings more violence, murder, and WAR.

[Ser Scott Malkinson]

On 16-2-2014 at 2:46 PM, LittleDragon8 said:

... This once again confirms how Targaryan centered Doran’s plans for revenge is. ...

Great theory! Loved Arianne in Feast and was a bit disappointed by her chapters in Winds so far, but this really brought meaning to those.

I do hope Doran's plans amount to more than Targ restoration though... From what we've seen of them so far he should've done more if he really was scheming for this for the past 17 years!