Oberyn poisoned Tywin vol. 2

[A wilding]

And I believe that Oberyn told Tyrion as much as soon as he arrived at KL ...

[Mithras]

Death had come to Dorne on raven wings, writ small and sealed with a blob of hard red wax. Caleotte must have sensed what was in that letter, for he’d given it Hotah to deliver. The prince thanked him, but for the longest time he would not break the seal. All afternoon he’d sat with the parchment in his lap, watching the children at their play. He watched until the sun went down and the evening air grew cool enough to drive them inside; then he watched the starlight on the water. It was moonrise before he sent Hotah to fetch a candle, so he might read his letter beneath the orange trees in the dark of night.

Oberyn decided to champion Tyrion and the next day he fought Gregor. The raven came to Sunspear two days later. It is unlikely that Oberyn sent a raven to inform them about he would fight Gregor next day. How the hell did maester Caleotte sense the content? How the hell did Doran obviously know it too?

[chrisdaw]

I have no doubt of the poisoning or that the plan was for Oberyn to be trialled and seek trial by combat. When Doran talks of being the grass shielding the viper he is referring to the Council position that would give Oberyn cause to be in Tywin's company and opportunity to strike, and if Oberyn's rank didn't ensure him a trial then Dorne holding Myrcella surely would. There is an intentional poetic justice in this plan, in that the Lannisters would know who killed Tywin but would be unable to exact justice when Oberyn won his trial, he'd be free as a bird, a mirroring of what has happened to the Martells. I believe Tywin's death was to be more drawn out and painful, giving time for further plans to bear fruit as Doran suggests. Possibly the invasion itself.

It was rather coincidental that Jaime never made it back to KL in one piece, as he would probably have fought in the Mountain's place if it were a trial over Tywin's death, but then when the plan was put into motion Jaime was thought captured by the Starks. If the plan was longer in the making, before the 5kings Jaime would have likely been considered the first combatant, so maybe they had plans to remove him before a trial or were happy enough to take on Jaime, as Dorne along with the rest of Westeros likely consider him explicit in the KL sack.

Why the inclusion and how it could come up and be revealed is something I've been thinking about.

Doran is cautious and shares his plans with only those necessary. I doubt anyone other than Oberyn and Doran knew the plan, including Ellaria "you're going to fight that?" Sand. And I doubt Oberyn and Doran were in contact regarding the plan after Oberyn left for KL, such things couldn't be discussed other than in person.

So what Doran knew was he sent Oberyn out to KL to poison Tywin, get trialled and kill the Mountain. What happened was Joffrey got poisoned, Tyrion accused and Oberyn stood in at the trial. Now if you're Doran do you assume a change of plan? An addition to the plan? Maybe Oberyn got over zealous and decided Joff was a monster and he'd have him too? You sent Oberyn to KL to poison Tywin, and whatever else, only it seems Tyrion killed him and is implicated in Joffrey's death, and Oberyn is standing for him. I don't think it's at all a stretch that Doran would assume Oberyn was party to poisoning Joff.

Doran has told Arianne the plans off screen, what he knows and thinks she likely now does also. Cersei recently tried to kill Trystane, which Arianne found barbaric. Cersei fears the prophesy a younger more beautiful queen will take all she holds dear. Well she held nothing more dear than Joff and to a lesser extent her father. Arianne looks set to marry Aegon. I propose should Arianne marry Aegon and he take KL, out of hatred Arianne will tell Cersei that it was Oberyn who poisoned Joff (as Arianne will believe it to be true). And if the Sand Snakes or Arianne herself happen on the information about Tywin's decaying corpse she'll include that one too. Setting Cersei up to think Arianne is the younger more beautiful queen.

On a side, the overtures by Oberyn to Tyrion in the OP could very possibly be a planned attempt rather than a spur of the moment thing, something Oberyn and Doran may have discussed as a possibility, that is possibly bringing Tyrion onside. The story of Viserys paralleling how Tyrion has been treated after his service at BW and the other conversation where he tells Tyrion of how Cersei was mean to him as a baby. Perhaps the intention was always to carefully and tentatively try for an ally in Tyrion, perhaps they somewhat believed the rumours regarding Tyrion's spiteful evil nature, and that Tyrion was capable of turning on his family for his own gain. Perhaps Doran even thinks the plan was partially successful given what happened.

[Mithras]

“Give me your blessing, then, and I shall go.”

Doran hesitated half a heartbeat before placing his hand on his niece’s head. “Be brave, child.”

No sooner had she taken her leave than Maester Caleotte hurried to the dais. “My prince, she did not... here, let me see your hand.” He examined the palm first, then gently turned it upside down to sniff at the back of the prince’s fingers. “No, good. That is good. There are no scratches, so...”

Tyene knows a lot of poison craft only seconded by Oberyn. Doran and Maester Caleotte worried that there might be a hidden spiky end on her head and with that scratch she might poison Doran.

This shows how dangerous it is to keep close to a viper like Oberyn. Tywin had to break his meals with him and stood by him during the trials.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Doran has told Arianne the plans off screen, what he knows and thinks she likely now does also. Cersei recently tried to kill Trystane, which Arianne found barbaric. Cersei fears the prophesy a younger more beautiful queen will take all she holds dear. Well she held nothing more dear than Joff and to a lesser extent her father. Arianne looks set to marry Aegon. I propose should Arianne marry Aegon and he take KL, out of hatred Arianne will tell Cersei that it was Oberyn who poisoned Joff (as Arianne will believe it to be true). And if the Sand Snakes or Arianne herself happen on the information about Tywin's decaying corpse she'll include that one too. Setting Cersei up to think Arianne is the younger more beautiful queen.

The Arianne sample chapter is Arianne II, and IIRC, Arianne I was described by GRRM as Doran and Arianne talking about things. Perhaps there we'll get some answers?

[Mithras]

“I came for justice for Elia and her children, and I will have it. Starting with this lummox Gregor Clegane . . . but not, I think, ending there. Before he dies, the Enormity That Rides will tell me whence came his orders, please assure your lord father of that.”

At the first meeting of Tyrion and Oberyn, the Viper is sure that Gregor will tell him the truth. One wonders how he can be so sure about this.

“You will have no cause for complaint. Though Ser Gregor may. However thick his plate, there will be gaps at the joints. Inside the elbow and knee, beneath the arms . . . I will find a place to tickle him, I promise you.”

“Did you come to talk or to fight?”

“I came to hear you confess.”

“Oberyn is toying with him,” said Ellaria Sand

He was planning to tickle him so that he sings the song he wants to hear. This is exactly what the Tickler (Gregor’s man) did. As Ellaria noticed, killing the man quickly was never Oberyn’s purpose.

The whole thing looks like an interrogation with torture from Oberyn’s side. Given that he was always sure that the Mountain would sing, I think it is possible that the poison Oberyn used was not intended only to give excruciating pain. I think there was also something to loosen the tongue, a poison of truth. We did not hear such a poison but a similar thing is mentioned in the text.

While the boy was gone, Melisandre washed herself and changed her robes. Her sleeves were full of hidden pockets, and she checked them carefully as she did every morning to make certain all her powders were in place. Powders to turn fire green or blue or silver, powders to make a flame roar and hiss and leap up higher than a man is tall, powders to make smoke. A smoke for truth, a smoke for lust, a smoke for fear, and the thick black smoke that could kill a man outright. The red priestess armed herself with a pinch of each of them.

If there is a smoke for truth, than it is not a far possibility that Oberyn might know a poison to give the same effect. In addition to such a possible substance, Oberyn also employed psychological tools like constantly taunting him. And at the end, he got his confession.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

The whole thing looks like an interrogation with torture from Oberyn’s side. Given that he was always sure that the Mountain would sing, I think it is possible that the poison Oberyn used was not intended to give excruciating pain. I think there was something to loosen the tongue, a poison of truth. We did not hear such a poison but a similar thing is mentioned in the text.

If there is a smoke for truth, than it is not a far possibility that Oberyn might know a poison to give the same effect. In addition to such a possible substance, Oberyn also employed psychological tools like constantly taunting him. And at the end, he got his confession.

Couldn't it be that Oberyn combined two things? Poison and such a smoke for truth (in liquid form)? The poison used was thickened, perhaps partly due to the fact Oberyn combined two things.

He had to be sure Gregor would not die too quickly, so there would be time to confess.

[Mithras]

Yeah, it is possible. Though Mel's powders (which are probably the stuff of the alchemists) are most likely burned to produce the smoke. However, the idea is there. We never saw Mel used the smoke for truth so far, neither the black smoke (which is an obvious homage to Lost) :)

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Yeah, it is possible. Though Mel's powders (which are probably the stuff of the alchemists) are most likely burned to produce the smoke. However, the idea is there. We never saw Mel used the smoke for truth so far, neither the black smoke (which is an obvious homage to Lost) :)

Yeah, that's funny :p

There's also the possibility the powder was simply mixed with poison, which was already thickened to have a slower effect. Powder dissolved in poison. There are several possibilities. But if Oberyn really was so convinced he could get Gregor to confess, the powder Mel mentions might actually have been in use here, some way or another.

[Mithras]

Is there any poison which we know how it kills and is not used so far?

Strangler: We know how it kills and who were killed by it (Cressen, Joffrey).

Tears of Lys: We know hot it kills and who was killed by it (Jon Arryn). Domeric Bolton died from a sickness in the bowels the maester claims. But Roose suspects from poison though he does not name which poison it is. It may be Widow's Blood but the effects of Widow's Blood can hardly be called as a sickness by a maester. We know that Maester Colemon didn’t suspect a poison and he treated Jon Arryn's case as a sickness in the stomach. I believe Domeric was poisoned with Tears of Lys and Roose himself killed him.

Basilisk's blood: It causes violent madness. Jaqen used it on a dog to kill for Arya.

Sweetsleep: Sweetrobin is being poisoned by it. It is also used in the pool of HoB&W. In tPatQ, we see how it was used to kill Ulf the Sot.

Manticore venom: It kills immediately when it reaches the heart. Dany was almost stung by a manticore and Oberyn used it on Gregor (though with some magical enhancement to increase the agony).

Unknown poison: There is also this poison Arya used on the golden coin. I don't know the name but it causes heart attack when tasted. Jaqen most probably used it on Pate too.

Widow's Blood: It shuts down the bladder and the bowels until the victim is poisoned with his body's own poisons. Apart from the possibility of Domeric Bolton (which is very slight because Tears of Lys fits better to his case), we do not know anybody being killed by it. Or do we?

[oursisthefury69]

As I was saying earlier in another Oberyn thread, this type of analysis is important because Oberyn definitely came to Kings Landing with a plan and it wasn't to be Tyrions champion, and you've done a good job showing that.

I'd like to add that we know Oberyn wanted war after Elia's murder's, but that they temporarily made peace while planning their revenge. A major part of this was the marriage pact between Arianne and Viserys which Oberyn helped forge, and the plan to eventually wed Arianne to Viserys and begin their rebellion. As we know from the natural order of events as well as the conclusion of Doran and Arianne's arch in Feast, news had just reached Dorne that that plan was shit now that Viserys is dead. I think its more than plausible that the already reluctantly patient Oberyn said enough's enough once he knew that their plan with Viserys was over and all those years had went by all for nothing, and that's when he took his first chance to get to Kings Landing and risk his own life to get what he wanted

[Mithras]

It was rather coincidental that Jaime never made it back to KL in one piece, as he would probably have fought in the Mountain's place if it were a trial over Tywin's death, but then when the plan was put into motion Jaime was thought captured by the Starks. If the plan was longer in the making, before the 5kings Jaime would have likely been considered the first combatant, so maybe they had plans to remove him before a trial or were happy enough to take on Jaime, as Dorne along with the rest of Westeros likely consider him explicit in the KL sack.

I don't think this matters much. Oberyn could have killed Jaime in the trial by combat too. And he was planning to start the war after the trial. Gregor would be in the van of the Lannister army and he would give plenty of chances to be killed in the battle.

[RumHam]

I like this theory, however:

In the latest Podcast of Ice and Fire, Elio and Linda and the hosts have a laugh at the expense of various “Tywin Lannister was poisoned” theories, including mine own contention that the Red Viper had slipped him some Widow’s Blood. As an ASoIaF fan, you haven’t known heartache until a chuckling Elio Garcia refers to your pet theory as “total nonsense,” let me just tell you. Anyway, Linda does the bulk of the debunking, asserting that there’s nothing about either death or even getting shot in the bowels that would magically undo the work of a poison that completely shuts down the excretory system — since Tywin does shit as he dies, we can therefore deduce that the fatal constipation induced by Widow’s Blood wasn’t in effect.

http://boiledleather.com/post/31921132635/did-oberyn-poison-tywin-the-case-against

[Rhaegars Heir]

I asked the OP this before in another thread what narrative purpose does any of this serve from a writing stand point why have Oberyn poison Tywin and not have anythingtg come of it. let's say for arguments sake that Oberyn did poison Tywin at this point it couldn't be revealed had no impact on the story so it's no differnt than if it hadn't happend. it's like writing a book where a character plays to shoot someone they hate but on a way to go kill him he finds out he was hit by a bus. what was the point then

[The Sword Of Mourning]

easily one of the best and favorite theory on the forum!

[Northernmonkey]

I asked the OP this before in another thread what narrative purpose does any of this serve from a writing stand point why have Oberyn poison Tywin and not have anythingtg come of it. let's say for arguments sake that Oberyn did poison Tywin at this point it couldn't be revealed had no impact on the story so it's no differnt than if it hadn't happend. it's like writing a book where a character plays to shoot someone they hate but on a way to go kill him he finds out he was hit by a bus. what was the point then

It's just a little easter egg for the keen-eyed reader. GRRM must have known that Oberyn would be a fan favourite and that we'd be absolutely gutted when he got killed. This cheers us up a bit by knowing that Oberyn did at least get his revenge.

[RumHam]

I asked the OP this before in another thread what narrative purpose does any of this serve from a writing stand point why have Oberyn poison Tywin and not have anythingtg come of it. let's say for arguments sake that Oberyn did poison Tywin at this point it couldn't be revealed had no impact on the story so it's no differnt than if it hadn't happend. it's like writing a book where a character plays to shoot someone they hate but on a way to go kill him he finds out he was hit by a bus. what was the point then

There are lots of little things in the books that don't really serve a narrative point, and are just there for more astute readers to pick up on. Of course I can't think of any examples right now, but try one of the "I never noticed that" threads you'll find a bunch.

[Rhaegars Heir]

It's just a little easter egg for the keen-eyed reader. GRRM must have known that Oberyn would be a fan favourite and that we'd be absolutely gutted when he got killed. This cheers us up a bit by knowing that Oberyn did at least get his revenge.

Oberyn poisoning Tywin wouldn't be a little thing. either way I'm apparently right because the post above my other one confirms that your wrong

[Northernmonkey]

either way I'm apparently right because the post above my other one confirms that your wrong

How?

[Rhaegars Heir]

How?

read the post above my previous one