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Oberyn poisoned Tywin vol. 2


Mithras

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Knowing Jaime loves Tyrion, Varys visits Jaime who of course asks for a way to save his brother, and Varys agrees to help.

Varys may have hinted this would be the last time Jaime would see Tyrion. Basically pointing out that if Jaime has any confessions to make towards Tyrion, this will be his last opportunity.

It is Jaime who sneaks into Varys' apartments and waits until he returns, before attacking Varys from behind and forcing him to help Jaime free Tyrion.

Varys did not visit Jaime.

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It is Jaime who sneaks into Varys' apartments and waits until he returns, before attacking Varys from behind and forcing him to help Jaime free Tyrion.

Varys did not visit Jaime.

Jaime thinks this is what happened, that doesn't mean Varys didn't know Jaime was in his room waiting for him. Or that he couldn't anticipate Jaime would come calling to free Tyrion eventually. It's rather convenient that a ship for Pentos was leaving that night and successfully delivered into Illyrio's manse without anyone spotting Tyrion on a plan Jaime forced Varys into.

More than likely Jaime played his role just as Varys expected him too.

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Jaime thinks this is what happened, that doesn't mean Varys didn't know Jaime was in his room waiting for him. Or that he couldn't anticipate Jaime would come calling to free Tyrion eventually. It's rather convenient that a ship for Pentos was leaving that night and successfully delivered into Illyrio's manse without anyone spotting Tyrion on a plan Jaime forced Varys into.

More than likely Jaime played his role just as Varys expected him too.

I don't doubt that Varys had plans concerning freeing Tyrion ;) but Jaime's involvement in it all is something Varys could not have predicted. He can't look inside people's heads ;)

That Varys was planning to free Tyrion seems rather obvious. That Jaime would do something that played into Varys' cards, was a coincidence.

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I don't doubt that Varys had plans concerning freeing Tyrion ;) but Jaime's involvement in it all is something Varys could not have predicted. He can't look inside people's heads ;)

That Varys was planning to free Tyrion seems rather obvious. That Jaime would do something that played into Varys' cards, was a coincidence.

That's where Jaime's previous actions come into play. He confronted Ned Stark over Tyrion's capture and went off to war to get his brother back when his duty was to guard the king. Varys likely has spies listening to Jaime's conversations and has strong indications Jaime believes Tyrion is innocent from his actions during the trial.

Varys doesn't need to be able to read Jaime's mind in order to predict, with a high probability, what action Jaime would take in order to save his little brother. Jaime can't go to Tywin, Cersei or the Tyrells for help. Jaime's only option for help is Varys...and Varys knows this. That's how masters like Littlefinger and Varys play the game. Varys wants it to appear as a coincidence so his moves can be blamed on someone else.

Sometimes the pieces don't make the moves you expect them too, as Littlefinger explains to Sansa. But they often do.

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I don't know why people think Tywin was poisoned. These hints and or foreshadowing are weak at best. Tywin was taking a shit at night. I have news for you, old people need to make frequent bathroom trips at night. He didn't shit until he died because his son was pointing a crossbow at his nuts, had a crazy look in his eye, was fleeing after a jailbreak, and was rehashing the most humiliating event of his life - the time his father forced him to participate in the gang rape of his wife, and promised to shoot him if he said his favorite word, whore, once more. That'd make anybody clench up.

Perhaps Oberyn intended to eventually poison Tywin once he got some more evidence / a confession out of the Mountain. Before that, there wasn't exactly a good reason to do so.

I don't think Doran or Oberyn ever doubted Tywin's part in Elia's death and I don't think they would bother with a confession/trial as long as Tywin is dead. Why would they care? They already know that he is guilty. So, there is always a good reason to kill Tywin if they can.

Context is important:

Seems to me he's talking about the role of Varys in Tywin knowing about Shae, and possibly bringing her to the Tower of the Hand. Not about Tywin's death.

Well, from George's words, it is obvious that Varys played a part in how Shae found herself in Tywin's bed but the details of that is not so important. GRRM pretty much implied that in the interview. There is no need to explain this further in the books. But it is possible that he was talking about the entirety of Tywin's death so it is quite likely that Varys has other concerns in bringing Shae to Tywin's bed and arranging the scene. As I explained before, there was a chest under the crossbow, which made it possible for a dwarf to get it from the wall.

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I don't think Doran or Oberyn ever doubted Tywin's part in Elia's death and I don't think they would bother with a confession/trial as long as Tywin is dead. Why would they care? They already know that he is guilty. So, there is always a good reason to kill Tywin if they can.

Of course they never doubted Tywin's responsibility. But that does not mean that Oberyn necessarily poisoned him untraceably at the first opportunity. They did not want just to kill Tywin, they wanted to destroy him. So getting a confession from Gregor to start turning the screw is a plausible first step.

Doran Martell:

I have worked for the downfall of Tywin Lannister since the day they told me of Elia and her children. It was my hope to strip him of all that he held most dear before I killed him, but it would seem his dwarf son has robbed me of that pleasure.
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Of course they never doubted Tywin's responsibility. But that does not mean that Oberyn necessarily poisoned him untraceably at the first opportunity. They did not want just to kill Tywin, they wanted to destroy him. So getting a confession from Gregor to start turning the screw is a plausible first step.

Doran Martell:

What if they got a confession from Gregor? Would it be any better than Robert's will, which was torn apart by Cersei? Tywin would refuse it and there would be another trial by combat at best with an uncertain end. Even if Tywin was found guilty in a trial, he would be allowed to take the black and House Lannister would continue working. Tywin's guilt does not bind his descendants. Instead of such a long and fruitless journey, they could kill him at the first opportunity and revenge themselves upon him. Unlike other Lannisters, Tywin proved to be one of the most dangerous men in the Realm and Doran could not just risk dancing with him openly. Tywin was perhaps the only person to not underestimate Doran.

One should also note that even if it was revealed that Tywin gave the orders, he could easily say "So what?".

There is no written law that during a sack, women and babies should be spared, even if they are of noble blood.

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Well, we don't know what Oberyn's plan was, because he got himself killed before he could take it any further. But I agree, Gregor's confession would not in itself be enough to bring down Tywin. Nonetheless it would at least be a first step, embarrassing him and bringing the issue of Elia to the fore again.



Perhaps it might have been wiser to quietly assassinate Tywin and then forget all about Elia, but the words and actions of both the brothers do not show them taking that route.

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While the evidence everyone has gathered makes it very plausible, the reason I don't believe in the theory is that it adds nothing to the plot. Oberyn is dead. Tywin is dead. Their story arcs are over and have been for two books. And while GRRM could probably make it relevant to the plot, I imagine it would take a lot of stretching.


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While the evidence everyone has gathered makes it very plausible, the reason I don't believe in the theory is that it adds nothing to the plot. Oberyn is dead. Tywin is dead. Their story arcs are over and have been for two books. And while GRRM could probably make it relevant to the plot, I imagine it would take a lot of stretching.

If Tywin was found dead by poison after Tyrion was executed, the top suspects would be the Dornish. Oberyn made it perfectly clear that the Martell's blame Tywin for the deaths of Elia and her children. The Lannisters and Tyrells going to war with Dorne at this time would be bad for Varys. He is wanting the Reach and Dorne to back Aegon against the Lannisters. Tyrion killing Tywin before he died of poison conveniently covers up the fact Tywin was poisoned and postpones a war until Varys is ready. Even if Tyrion hadn't shot Tywin with arrows, the fact he escaped and was convicted of poisoning Joffrey switches the blame off of Dorne onto Tyrion. The cover up is how this theory adds to the plot.

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If Tywin was found dead by poison after Tyrion was executed, the top suspects would be the Dornish. Oberyn made it perfectly clear that the Martell's blame Tywin for the deaths of Elia and her children. The Lannisters and Tyrells going to war with Dorne at this time would be bad for Varys. He is wanting the Reach and Dorne to back Aegon against the Lannisters. Tyrion killing Tywin before he died of poison conveniently covers up the fact Tywin was poisoned and postpones a war until Varys is ready. Even if Tyrion hadn't shot Tywin with arrows, the fact he escaped and was convicted of poisoning Joffrey switches the blame off of Dorne onto Tyrion. The cover up is how this theory adds to the plot.

But when you look at who's left in Kings Landing that would actually care about Oberyn poisoning Tywin is ...Cersei. And I doubt she would go to war with Dorne. And while she may be upset that her father is dead, she's also pretty happy that she's the one left in power again.

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But when you look at who's left in Kings Landing that would actually care about Oberyn poisoning Tywin is ...Cersei. And I doubt she would go to war with Dorne. And while she may be upset that her father is dead, she's also pretty happy that she's the one left in power again.

She would go to war with Dorne for the same reason Tywin went to war over the capture of Tyrion. The Martell's killing Tywin without repercussions would make the Lannisters look weak. The family legacy cannot allow an act like this to go unpunished. A lot of people heard Oberyn call out Tywin for giving the orders during the fight with Gregor. Rumors would spread pretty fast. Look how fast rumors spead about him smelling so bad at the funeral.

Plus the Tyrells have there own beef with Dorne and would love to seize on an opportunity like this. You don't need to care about the person who died to take advantage of the situation.

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It adds to the plot in showing the motivations and the plots of the characters of Dorne, and to make sense of why Oberyn was there and what will Doran's plan be now that his goal was accomplished in a different way and he no longer has someone in KL. Character building and filling plot holes (i.e. why was Shae there with Tywin, how did Oberyn know that he would fight the mountain etc) is important to the story.


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Of course they never doubted Tywin's responsibility. But that does not mean that Oberyn necessarily poisoned him untraceably at the first opportunity. They did not want just to kill Tywin, they wanted to destroy him. So getting a confession from Gregor to start turning the screw is a plausible first step.

Doran Martell:

I imagine the original plan was to get everyone used to drinking Dornish wine before Oberyn started handing out his special reserve label to a few special people at the Wedding. Once those are gone, have a quick killing poison sent to someone and force Oberyn to be put on trial. Oberyn would demand a trial by combat knowing he would likely be facing Ser Gregor. After killing Gregor, the rest of the Lannisters would die slowly from the poison they had already ingested.

Basically, whatever plans Doran and Oberyn may have laid were undercut when Littlefinger and the Tyrell's poisoned Joffrey. Oberyn probably had designs on killing Joffrey as well later that day and finds it amusing that Tyrion is on trial when he was expecting to be the one on trial. With a busted plan he wanted to make sure to at least get Tywin and Gregor.

That's how I see it playing out under this theory.

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“I’ll gladly hire you as well, ser. My father’s seat is mine by rights. Swear me your sword, and once I win it back I’ll drown you in gold.”


“I saw a man drowned in gold once. It was not a pretty sight. If you ever get my sword, it will be through your bowels.”


“A sure cure for constipation,” said Tyrion. “Just ask my father.”



Although this was a jape, I think it may still qualify as a message to the readers.


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  • 4 months later...

I think that whilst Oberyn certainly intended to poison Tywin eventually, he wanted to destroy the Lannisters (atleast according to Doran's speech) as much as possible beforehand. Which he could do easily from his position on the small council.


Remembering that Joffrey's death was a surprise to almost everyone:


Any plans involving: poisoning Tywin, then getting a trial of combat against Gregor, seem far fetched and rely on too many contingencies. Even if he were to survive this projected trial with Gregor after having been accused of poisoning Tywin, he would likely lose his seat on the small council (which would be useful to acting as a fifth column within the Lannister government)




and yeah, I think Tywin was just constipated (due to the high meat diet) and got up in the middle of the night because he is old.


I think his corpse stunk because the Silent Sisters would've hated him...


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  • 6 months later...

After reading all of these I believe tywin was poisoned but am torn as to who is behind it...I like the idea of cersei being behind it because it would make the third death tyrion is accused of that was actually a poisoning by a woman (lysa with jon arryn, oleanna with joffrey) I also think it is likely that shae administered it...

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While the evidence everyone has gathered makes it very plausible, the reason I don't believe in the theory is that it adds nothing to the plot. Oberyn is dead. Tywin is dead. Their story arcs are over and have been for two books. And while GRRM could probably make it relevant to the plot, I imagine it would take a lot of stretching.

I disagree. It adds a "Cool!" and another level of badass for Oberyn.

Not every awesome thing has to advance the plot. Though you have to admit that Tyrion knowing he'd find Tywin in the garderobe does rather point toward either a far more intimate knowledge of his father's bowel habits than would be normal or explainable, or an inkling that Oberyn had been messing with Tywin's food/drink.

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