The Brightfyre theory

[J. Stargaryen]

I read it a while ago, so this might not be completely accurate. House webber (spider sigil) wasn´t really loyal to the blackfyres. It was house osgrey.

Actually Ser eustance osgrey was the blackfyre loyalist. he buried his sons close to blackberry bushes. Tyrion and Illyrio eat blackberries, and drink blackberry wine didn´t they?

You know, that's an interesting interpretation, my friend. They unite their Houses.

[Lady Gwynhyfvar]

It doesn´t work in reverse. It just loses a lot. Varys has more hints of being Brightflame than of being Blackfyre. Actually is there any link at all of Varys Blackfyre?

Same goes for Serra (even if there is little to work with).

Also same goes for Illyrio blackfyre. Turning around the identities loses the clues on Illyrio Blackfyre, and gains nothing.

I believe all the Varys clues work for him being any kind of Targ descendant. Also, the "extinct in the male line" obvs works better for a eunuch than for a healthy adult male. There's virtually nothing to go on for Serra and Illyrio works the same as Varys-- a secret Targ of one description or another.

I've said several times I agree with this theory, but was playing devil's advocate as I felt there is some clarification necessary. Nowhere in the op does it say Illyrio is the son of a female Blackfyre, just calls him Illyrio Blackfyre, which IMO is confusing given the "extinct in the male line" comment. And the most compelling piece of evidence, Illyrio's connection to the GC, wasn't mentioned until a couple of posts ago.

[Lost Melnibonean]

same question i was going to ask.also i have long thought Ilyrio was a brightflame as you have put it. which explains his and varys chance encounter being the meeting of exiled dragons...

is varys a warg? use of mice and little birds and the appearance of the king of the black cats at Red Keep around the time of his arrival suggest so...

and as to varys being from lys... the cheesemonger says they met as green boys in pentos and tyrion attempts to confirm the tale spun by the spider that he was from myr. might be i misread...

Varys doesn't warg mice and birds. He has slave children learn to read an write but cuts out their tongues. Then he kills them when they've served their time. Varys was born in Lys, abandoned in Myr, and escaped to Pentos.

[Lord Martin]

You tell me, it's your theory. :) I only think that previously mentioned connections between Varys and Aerion are markers meant to, well, connect to the two.

Originally, you stated that you thought it made more sense if the son of Aerion castrated Varys, and that would fit nicely into why he wanted to play a part in the downfall of the Targaryens. Now, it's not clear to me if you meant that Varys was a Blackfyre or just some random Lyseni.

If it's the former, then how did Aerion's son know Varys was a Blackfyre? If it's the latter, Varys should have been satisfied with House Targaryen's fall at the hands of Robert and company.

So, that probably renders your interpretation as fairly unlikely. Yet we still have these connections between Aerion and Varys. How do we explain them?

Perhaps a close read of TSS would give something. There's plenty of Blackfyre talk in the book, and of course one of the two main houses in the story uses a spider for its sigil.

Again, that's why I said it'd not a theory. I was just thinking out loud. I make a distinction between a theory which is based on considered analysis of the text and spitballing on a discussion board topic.

I think Illyrio and Serra are both Blackfyres,we are told there were many of them in the Free Cities. I think Aegon is Illyrio's son with Serra making Varys his uncle, thus this is the last of the Blackfyre Pretenders.

[Lord Martin]

Agreed.

I think one bit of evidence that points to Varys being related is simply the fact that the constant theme among contenders is that they are pretty much all in it for their families (or themselves), while Varys claims to be the single man of integrity serving the realm. It would fit much better with the story, I think, if Varys was in it for his family all along, and I think if his castration was voluntary (def could have been) it gives a little credit to the idea of Varys making a sacrifice for his nephew to eventually rule and his house to be restored.

I think you are a little too fixated on the math and the generations, considering our lack of knowledge of the family trees involved here. It is more beneficial to focus on the foreshadowing and other evidence in the OP than to nitpick the details.

Already did that in my first two posts which no one substantively replied to.

And math matters, of course it does, why else's give us dates? Aren't dates integral to theories like R + L = J? We can't just ignore facts.

[Lost Melnibonean]

Aerion was in Lys for a few years, true enough. He was exiled in 209 and spent a "few" years there. So if Serra is descended from a Targ-bastard, she is several generations down, a grand daughter or perhaps great grand daughter. If we follow the argument that she is descended from the Lyseni bastards: say Aerion gets a whore pregnant around 210, she has a baby in 211. That baby could have procreated as well producing Serra's parent around 235 who eventually had Serra in 255 so she could birth Faegon around 282. That would be 3 generations from Serra to Aerion.

How would she plausibly know her own heritage? How would that be preserved? And would it be preserved enough to motivate the players as much as it seems to?

Ask the Knight of the Pussywillows...

[J. Stargaryen]

Again, that's why I said it'd not a theory. I was just thinking out loud. I make a distinction between a theory which is based on considered analysis of the text and spitballing on a discussion board topic.

You attempted to explain something, so I called it a theory. Btw, I didn't think your interpretation was entirely unreasonable, which is why I thought it made sense to take to its logical conclusion. At that point it doesn't seem to make as much sense. Which means there is probably a better explanation available.

I think Illyrio and Serra are both Blackfyres,we are told there were many of them in the Free Cities. I think Aegon is Illyrio's son with Serra making Varys his uncle, thus this is the last of the Blackfyre Pretenders.

Okay, but then how do you explain the Varys-Aerion connections? Just forget about em?

[Lost Melnibonean]

Just about all of this is answered in the OP.

Besides maybe:

Which is wrong. We do not know if this child was fathered in Lys or Westeros or anywhere else. It is quite possible he did live in Lys, or not. But it makse more sense, imo, that this infant became a slave in Lys than that a female Blackfyre did.

Nah, I think Varys an Serra descend from the wrong side of the sheet...

Aerion Brightfire did not stay in Lys all his life, only a few years. He may have fathered a few bastards there, which would mean Dany has "relatives" of a sort in Lys... but they would be very distant relatives, from the wrong side of the blanket. --SSM

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

I believe all the Varys clues work for him being any kind of Targ descendant. Also, the "extinct in the male line" obvs works better for a eunuch than for a healthy adult male. There's virtually nothing to go on for Serra and Illyrio works the same as Varys-- a secret Targ of one description or another.

I've said several times I agree with this theory, but was playing devil's advocate as I felt there is some clarification necessary. Nowhere in the op does it say Illyrio is the son of a female Blackfyre, just calls him Illyrio Blackfyre, which IMO is confusing given the "extinct in the male line" comment. And the most compelling piece of evidence, Illyrio's connection to the GC, wasn't mentioned until a couple of posts ago.

1) The mummer´s incident during THK is clearly in favor of a Varys Brightflame. Aerion lost his mind because “the dragon never loses”, now his descendant (a known mummer) is trying to put a mummer´s dragon on the Iron throne. I find it at least a nice thematic link between both characters

2) So is the castration threat. Besides it sounds fitting than Aerion´s descendant would find himself on the wrong side of the knife.

3) “as hairless as an Egg”. Egg shaves his head to hide his identity. While Daemon II dyes his hair to hide his identity. Varys shaves, (f)Aegon dyes. Targs shave, blackfyres dye their hair.

4) The lys connection works better as brightlame

5) So does the slave status.

6) The eunuch approach to male-extinct lines is interesting, perphaps Illyrio means that it will soon be extinct since Varys won’t have any child soon. I don´t agree though.

Illyrio:

he has some links to house blackfyre. The similarities with Aegon IV (yonng handsome, old fat and corrupt + love for rings gemstones and jewels). The early drafts of ADWD hinting him having Blackfyre sword, make more sense if he is the blackfyre. The sapphire. And the Tyroshi connections (the most important guest at Illyrio´s mansion during dany´s wedding was the brother of the tyroshi archon). This is relevant since Tyrosh may be the last known location of house blackfyre, before attacking the stepstones during the war of the ninepenny kings.

Also, I think (just an opinion) that Illyrio could have made (f)Aegon dye his hair in honor to Illyrio´s tyroshi mother. Lies are often more powerful when they have some truth in them. Of course Aegon doesn´t have a Tyroshi mother (as he claims), but what if he had a grandmother? This works better if Illyrio is the Blackfyre. Varys being born a slave in Lys, probably had a slave mother, from lys.

[Lost Melnibonean]

snip

Wow... so I take it you're not convinced?

[Lost Melnibonean]

In addition to this, Aerion used to threaten to castrate Egg and Varys is a eunuch.

Something else that seems like it might be a clue to me is the story of how Varys was cut. - ACoK, Tyrion X

Someone already mentioned the Sapphires = Secrets thread here. I think a lot of those secrets are secret identities. Even just with the color blue. You have JonCon and Aegon dying their hair blue. The blue roses, which are symbolic of R+L=J. If you look at all of the sapphire mentions surrounding Brienne well, what mission did Cat give her? To bring back Sansa and Arya. But there is no Sansa, only Alayne. And Arya has had half a hundred different names since she escaped KL.

Anyway, it just struck me that the flames turning blue in Varys' story might be another clue along these lines. And of course it's not just the color blue that would be important here, but the fact that it's a flame that turns blue. Which would, if I had to guess, indicate a link to House Targaryen.

So, are you on board? With Serra Brightflame & Illyrio Blackfyre?

[Lord Martin]

You attempted to explain something, so I called it a theory. Btw, I didn't think your interpretation was entirely unreasonable, which is why I thought it made sense to take to its logical conclusion. At that point it doesn't seem to make as much sense. Which means there is probably a better explanation available.

Okay, but then how do you explain the Varys-Aerion connections? Just forget about em?

In short, yes. Unless and until the text gives us more. I think the connections are really thin. The Blackfyre hints are much more ubiquitous without being overly obvious...most people didn't catch it all the first time.

Aerion is a minor historical footnote, the Blackfyres Loom much larger.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

And the most compelling piece of evidence, Illyrio's connection to the GC, wasn't mentioned until a couple of posts ago.

It was implied in the OP. See bullet "faegon supported by GC". Though you could make your point again that it could have clarified a couple things more explicitly such as that.

And math matters, of course it does, why else's give us dates? Aren't dates integral to theories like R + L = J? We can't just ignore facts.

I'm not saying ignore real dates. Yes math matters, and the ages of characters are relevant. I'm saying we don't have much info at all about the different generations and family members here which you have touched on a couple times making some very conclusive estimates even though child-bearing age is a large range, so we don't know how many generations for instance would be between Brightflame and Varys/Serra or between Maelys Monstrous and Illyrio (or whomever).

[Frey family reunion]

I really think everyone is barking up the wrong tree with this Illyrio Blackfyre stuff. The fact that he is fat and corrupt isn't exactly a unique trait in GRRM's world, that would make about half of Essos a descendant of Aegon 1V. Nor is the fact that he was once a good swordsman. If anything it shows that during his youth, he probably has spent extensive time in Braavos learning to be a Waterdancer. I think his relationship with the Golden Company is also pretty easily explained. He is a rich and powerful Magister he is obviously going to be able to have influence with a sellsword company. ETA: He has also convinced them that he has Daemon Blackfyre's long lost heir in his possession. In fact his relationship with the Golden Company probably goes against him being a secret Blackfyre. When they made their decision to ditch his plans and invade Westeros on their own to crown Aegon it was remarked by one of the Golden Company, Tristan Rivers

"Which plan?" said Tristan Rivers. "The fat man's plan? The one that changes every time the moon turns? First Viserys Targaryen was to join us with fifty thousand Dothraki screamers at his back. Then the Beggar King was dead, and it was to be the sister, a pliable young child queen who was on her way to Pentos with three new-hatched dragons. Instead the girl turns up on Slaver's Bay and leaves a string of burning cities in her wake, and the fat man decides we should meet her by Volantis now that plan is in ruins as well. "I have had enough of Illyrio's plans. Robert Baratheon won the Iron Throne without the benefit of dragons and we can do the same. And if the realm does not rise for us, we can always retreat back across the narrow sea, as Bittersteel once did, and others after him."

This is a far cry from a group of people who would follow Illyrio because he is a Blackfryre. They followed Illyrio because he was rich, and powerful, and he had schemes that they believed would land them in Westeros.

Finally, Illyrio's fondness for "Aegon" is easily explainable, unlike Dany and Viserys, Illyrio raised the boy in his manse, this is enough to cause an emotional attachment even if the boy is not of his blood.

[Lost Melnibonean]

Quick question, has anyone else in the novels made the claim that the Blackfyres were extinguished in the male line only besides Illyrio? If not, how could he come across this knowledge[?]

1. No. 2. Good question :)

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

While we are talking about Aegon (I don't want to hijack this thread), does anyone have a quick explanation to reconcile the doubt in my heart that says Aegon is real purely because the Woods Witch prophecy thing? The fact that she predicted AA would come from the line of Mad King and his sis which only leaves Viserys (deceased), Rhaegar (deceased), Rhaenys (deceased) and the 3 heads of the dragon super combo Dany-Aegon-Jon aka AA aka PtwP. I'm confused about this. Maybe only one is AA but it seems like it is meant to be the combination.

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

I really think everyone is barking up the wrong tree with this Illyrio Blackfyre stuff. The fact that he is fat and corrupt isn't exactly a unique trait in GRRM's world, that would make about half of Essos a descendant of Aegon 1V. Nor is the fact that he was once a good swordsman. If anything it shows that during his he probably has spent extensive time in Braavos learning to be a Waterdancer. I think his relationship with the Golden Company is also pretty easily explained. He is a rich and powerful Magister he is obviously going to be able to have influence with a sellsword company. ETA: He has also convinced them that he has Daemon Blackfyre's long lost heir in his possession. In fact his relationship with the Golden Company probably goes against him being a secret Blackfyre. When they made their decision to ditch his plans and invade Westeros on their own to crown Aegon it was remarked by one of the Golden Company, Tristan Rivers

This is a far cry from a group of people who would follow Illyrio because he is a Blackfryre. They followed Illyrio because he was rich, and powerful, and he had schemes that they believed would land them in Westeros.

Finally, Illyrio's fondness for "Aegon" is easily explainable, unlike Dany and Viserys, Illyrio raised the boy in his manse, this is enough to cause an emotional attachment even if the boy is not of his blood.

of course, no one believes the GC members knows and hold the secret of (f)Aegon´s real identity.

Myles toyne did the blood contract with Illyrio, he is the one who knows Ilyrio´s cards (some of). How much did Myles tell Harry strickland (HS) is unknown. May be no current member of the Golden Company actually knows (f)Aegon is a blackfyre, or that his father Illyrio was one (if this theory is correct) even if in terms of plot developing it makes sense that at the end the GC would be supporting the blackfyre candidate for the IT.

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

While we are talking about Aegon (I don't want to hijack this thread), does anyone have a quick explanation to reconcile the doubt in my heart that says Aegon is real purely because the Woods Witch prophecy thing? The fact that she predicted AA would come from the line of Mad King and his sis which only leaves Viserys (deceased), Rhaegar (deceased), Rhaenys (deceased) and the 3 heads of the dragon super combo Dany-Aegon-Jon aka AA aka PtwP. I'm confused about this. Maybe only one is AA but it seems like it is meant to be the combination.

GRRM said the third head doesnt have to be a targaryen.

[Lost Melnibonean]

I like where you're going with this. It sounds like you are implying that Doran is part of the faegon conspiracy along with Varys and Illyrio? I too believe that this is true. I also believe that Septa Lemore may actually be Doran's "estranged" wife who is in the process of making sure her future son in law is raised to be a suitable match for her daughter. Also under Dornish law, it can be argued that the lineage with the best claim to the IT is actually Daena's lineage (or the Blackfyre lineage) even if it is only carried on by the female line.

Were Varys and Illyrio aware of the betrothal contract that Prince Doran and Ser Willem Darry had made? And why didn't Darry or someone tell Viserys about this agreement before his death?

To the first question: no. As to the second, Viserys was an immature child when it was decided, and he wasn't ready for the information.

--SSM

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Month/2012/07/

[Frey family reunion]

of course, no one believes the GC members knows and hold the secret of (f)Aegon´s real identity.

Myles toyne did the blood contract with Illyrio, he is the one who knows Ilyrio´s cards (some of). How much did Myles tell Harry strickland (HS) is unknown. May be no current member of the Golden Company actually knows (f)Aegon is a blackfyre, or that his father Illyrio was one (if this theory is correct) even if in terms of plot developing it makes sense that at the end the GC would be supporting the blackfyre candidate for the IT.

I guess call me nobody then because I believe that "Aegon's" true(?) identity is what Illyrio and Varys is using to convince the higher up members of the Golden Company to geth their members to abandon their contract and get behind "Aegon". But regardless, that's not the main point. It has been argued that Illyrio is a Blackfyre because of his clout with the Golden Company. My argument is that Illyrio's clout has nothing to do with his birth it has to do with his money, influence and schemes.